Today

DeWitt John

Director of Environmental StudiesBowdoin College

Attacking Wicked Problems like Climate Change

DeWitt John: Policy Experience

Colorado:

Director, Division of Mines

Policy Director for the Governor

Washington DC:

Director of Economic Policy, Natl Governors Asso

Director, State Policy Program, Aspen Institute

Director, Center for the Economy & Environment, Natl Academy of Public Administration

DeWitt John: Books

environment.gov: Transforming Environmental Protection for the 21st Century

A Brighter Future for Rural America?: Strategies for Communities and States

Civic Environmentalism: Alternatives to Regulation in States and Communities

Resolving the paradox of environmental protection

Clean air and the politics of coal

Attacking Wicked Problems like Climate Change

3-28-07DeWitt John

Environmental Studies ProgramBowdoin CollegeBrunswick, Maine

djohn@bowdoin.edu

What is a “wicked” problem?

How can political leaders, citizens, and you go about reducing the risks of “wicked” problems?

Now-2010: the “policy window” in the US for addressing the “wicked” problem of climate change

Cuyahoga River burning, Cleveland, Ohio, 1969

Simple problems

A few, easily identifiable sources

Bad guys! Rich, unpopular culprits

Big predictable risks

Readily available technology to reduce risks

How to solve a simple problem

• Make the culprits at the sources install the technology to eliminate the risks

– Regulation

– Incentives

Efficiency: elec 21%; res 62%; ind 73.5%; tn 20%

Simple problems Wicked problems

Few sources

Identifiable, rich, unpopular culprits

Many sources – too many to count!

Multiple, unknown, or poor culprits –

or “we all are the problem”: need for widespread collective action

Simple problems Wicked problems

Big, predictable risks

Available affordable technology

Multiple risks, uncertain timingNew info about the problem &

“solutions” keeps appearing

Risky, expensive technology. Technologies not yet fully

developed. Too many technologies! (P&S)Unintended consequences Market failures (information,

difference in perspectives about time)

How to solve a simple problem

• Make the culprits at the sources install the technology to eliminate the risks

– Regulation

– Incentives

How to get a handle on a wicked problemMany sources

- Look first for “low-hanging fruit” – easy things that will pay off quickly

- Set broad goals and plan for incremental changes to address other sources

Culprits?

- First identify culprits that you can influence or regulate easily and productively

- Then, can you find businesses/investors that will profit from developing clean new technologies?

How to get a handle on a wicked problemUnpredictable risks- Assess the longer-term risks and expect surprises

as events unfold- Set some goals (e.g., 60-90% reduction in GHGs

by 2050) - Develop scenarios – different ways to achieve

your goals

No ready technologies- Develop new technologies, learning by doing- Wicked problems open opportunities for creative

engineers

Technological lock-in

In the early phases of technological advance, many paths are promising but too little is known about potential impacts to choose the best paths. Later on, when more is known, options are greatly restricted.

D Sarewitz Ways of Knowing Novel Materials

American Electric Power’s coal-fired power plant, Cheshire, Ohio

Examples of Technological Lock-inBuilding coal-fired power plants

50 year life, high initial costs but cheap fuelTurn new plants into culprits – as the Call to Action

tried to do.or

When they must be rebuilt, the culprit may be your ally!

They do face extra burdens; help them adapt.Buy them off, cheaply.

Help AEP finance new, cleaner power plants.

Are wicked problems moral issues?

At the outset, we have an obligation to recognize “wicked” problems

But culprits and risks abound; we need allies.

Develop a vision of where you want to go;

be humble: acknowledge uncertainties, learn as you go

turn culprits into allies whenever you can.

Policy to address “wicked” problems1. Hedge your investments

Multiple strategies – no “bickering”- Low-carbon technologies - Energy efficiency - Conservation and the “simple life”

Use multiple tools- Regulations - Cap-and-trade - Performance standards- Public disclosure of emissions, carbon content, etc.

State and local “laboratories of democracy”– not just the federal government

2. Build a “learning system” to improve scientific, bureaucratic, and public understanding of the problem and possible remedies

www.nanoriskframework.com

3. Expect surprises, take advantage of opportunities –scientific discoveries, technological breakthroughs, policy windows.

4. The perfect is the enemy of the good.

Be un-relenting; don’t give up. This is your life.

Politics for wicked problems

“Humans gravitate to stories where the plot revolves around a single dramatic event rather than where the ending is driven by slow accumulation of change

(Robert Lempert et al.

“Shaping the Next 100 Years”, RAND, 2004)

The past is consistent with many different futures; scenarios will open your mind and raise hopes.

Scenarios can inject technical plausibility and narrative concreteness into the public debate – help people learn.

1. Define an acceptable condition – it’s your goal2. Imagine different paths to get to the goal

- Scientific- Technologies- Economic drivers- Governance- Culture and “morals”

3. Assess “risk-of-policy” – not “predict-then-act”4. Be honest about your goal (20% reduction by 2020?)

- It’s a only an informed guess about the future. - Use metrics to evaluate progress and educate about

uncertainties – both risks and opportunities.

Fragmentation of government in the US

- Legislative-executive-judicial separation of powers

- Multiple Congressional committees

- Federal-state-local government

87,576 independent governments

In a fragmented world:

It’s hard to get agreement on anything new.

It’s easier to stop action than to take action.

This has traditionally been thought to be acceptable in the US – our system places a higher value on liberty than on government effectiveness.

so . . . Policy windows must open to allow big changes

1. Dramatic crisis gets the public’s attention2. A politician wants to get attention, perhaps to run

for a higher office, is willing to take a risk by offering a solution to the crisis

3. A policy entrepreneur gives the politician a fresh idea about a policy that can respond to the crisis

Everyone lines up to support the fresh idea to address the

crisis

Humphrey. Not elected in 1968

Nixon worried about ‘72

Muskie hoping to win in 72

Richard Nixon, elected President in 1968Ed Muskie had made his reputation as an advocate

for the environment . . . and was running against Nixon in 1972.

Nixon’s fresh idea: the federal government would preempt state regulation

Result:National Environmental Policy Act 1969

EPA created 1970Clean Air Act of 1970

National leaders committed to action on climate change

Businesses supporting a 60-90% cut in CO2 by 2050- GE- Merrill Lynch- Duke Energy- Alcoa- Dupont- Caterpillar- Lehman Brothers- BPAmerica

and others

So . . . . . . . . . . .

Climate Change Act of 2007. 08, 09 or 2010 ? ? ?

What is the fresh idea?

Will cap-and-trade still be “fresh” in 2010?

Initial steps in 2007-08

GHG inventory and registry

Ban new conventional coal-fired plants??

RD&D for renewables & carbon sequestration

More state GHG plans

Local/personal commitments to buy low-carbon electricity

Court ok for California’s low-carbon car

Higher CAFE standards – fuel efficiency??

Action in 2009-2010??

An aggressive national goal = 60% by 2020Federal cap-and-trade legislationNew federal-state-business partnership for developing

low-carbon technologies

Then . . . New federal-state partnership to build infrastructure

for - for low-carbon cities- for adapting to climate change

Imagine a Stable ClimateUnderstand the Planetary Problem (to the extent that

you can)

List and analyze the policy options

Take a stand – a technology, institution, approach

Experiment, fail, learn, succeed

Imagine Yourself Solving this Problem