Tom Rye, Professor of Transport Policyand Mobility ManagementTransport Research InstituteNapier UniversityEdinburgh

Transport’s contribution to GHG emissions, and

how to reduce it

Presentation structure

Trends and problems Backcasting Policy options and possible

impacts International comparisons Conclusions

Transport emissions as proportion of total - Scotland

CONTEXT

Source: CHANGING OUR WAYS SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMME, Scottish Executive

2006Excludes international air travel

More detail

Source: Scottish Transport Statistics 2007

Summarising…

22.7% of net Scottish emissions from transport 2005 (17.3% 1990)

Transport second largest source of emissions

1990-2003 largest percentage increase in emissions by sector – from transport

If current trends in transport use continue CO2 emissions in the UK will increase by 60% in the next 20 years (excl. int. air)

UK transport CO2 emissions 1952-2004 (source: DTI)

Addressing the problem

Transport energy use is a product of: Population Vehicle technology Carbon intensity of fuel Mode choice Trip frequency Trip length Vehicle occupancyLimit discussion here to surface transport

Back-casting – emissions index - UK

Trip

length

Motorised trips per person

Emissions per v km

Carbon intensity Mode share Total

Current situation 1 1 1 1 1 1 2025 Business as usual 1.5 1.2 0.9 1 1 1.62 Engine efficiency 1.5 1.2 0.29 1 1 0.52 Engine efficiency and new fuels 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.72 1 0.52 Mode specific 2005 Car 1 1 1 1 0.88 0.88 Bus 1 1 1 1 0.1 0.10 Rail 1 1 1 1 0.02 0.02 1.00 2025 - mode shift only Car 1.5 1.2 0.97 1 0.65 1.13 Bus 1.5 1.2 0.44 1 0.25 0.20 Rail 1.5 1.2 0.53 1 0.1 0.10 1.43 2025 - combination Car 1.3 1.1 0.55 0.8 0.65 0.41 Bus 1.3 1.1 0.25 0.8 0.25 0.07 Rail 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.03 0.51

Source: based on Potter (2008)

So we need to:

Reduce motorised trips Stabilise trip length Change vehicle technologies and

carbon intensity of fuels Achieve mode shift

Unlikely that any one strategy alone could achieve GHG reduction targets

Current Scottish transport policy trends National level – approx equal spend by TS

on PT and roads Significant road and rail investments Bus use falling/stable outside Lothian and

SPT areas Real bus fares stable since about 2000 SOA/NPF – less emphasis on transport at

LA level; and almost no ring-fenced funds for tspt

Land use planning – NPF, SPP17

Transport Spending

Source: Transport Scotland Corporate Plan 2008 In addition SG spends £250m/yr mainly on air, ferry and BSOG

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Rail Services in Scotland 689.2 35% 672.9 30% 667.1 29% Concessionary Fares 187.5 9% 189.5 9% 191.5 8% Major Public Transport Projects

157.7 8% 262.9 12% 230.7 10%

Motorways and Trunk Roads

383.1 19% 468.2 21% 532.3 23%

Roads Cost of Capital Charge

546.5 28% 595.5 27% 649.1 28%

Other 23.2 1% 24.2 1% 26.2 1% Total 1,987.20 2,213.20 2,296.90

NTS and reducing emissions “Reduce emissions” – one of three key

objectives of National Transport Strategy Methods proposed:

Travel plan coordinators, smarter choices – influencing travel behaviour through mkting/awareness - £11m over three years

Renewable Fuels Obligation Reviewing speed enforcement on motorways Bus strategy, to improve service quality

If transport’s GHG emissions are to fall significantly, we need… Shift to smaller vehicles (NL, Italy) –

taxation? Incentives to use 2nd generation biofuels Mode shift:

Cheaper, more frequent PT esp within towns – with cheap integrated ticketing

PT faster than car Safe infrastructure for walking and cycling –

taking space from parked and moving cars Smarter choices

Trip reduction, trip shortening: Land use encouraging slow modes, short

distances Pricing/parking restraint

Mode shares compared

% trips by mode, Scotland

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1997 2000 2003 2005 2006 Edinburgh2004

Source: Transport Statistics Scotland 2007 and Edinburgh LTS 2007

Other

PT inc taxi

Car pass or driver

Bike

Walk

Specific example: Freiburg

550,000 people Public transport has priority Cars and parking restricted; P+R Tram network mostly new since 80s Integrate planning and transport March 84 - Enviro Season ticket (all

modes) Prices and subsidy reduced - 70%

farebox

Freiburg results

Freiburg tram…

Conclusion

CO2 emissions rising faster from transport sector than any other

Current Scottish transport policy – very mixed picture on emissions reduction – low emphasis on zero-emissions modes

Using technology to reduce consumption by engines or further develop alternatively powered vehicles is part of the solution

BUT Changing peoples travel behaviour to

sustainable modes needs to occur also

Tom Ryet.rye@napier.ac.ukwww.tri-napier.org