Tomoko Hasegawa (NIES, Japan)

The 18th AIM international workshop, 14-16 Dec, 2012 1

“CMIP5”: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 “SSP”: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway

Crop yield can be affected by changes in temperature and precipitation in the future

The impacts will vary in different regions Several approaches were taken in the assessment

of climate change impact on agriculture and food supply so far.

Existing researches ◦ Not consider uncertainty of several factors ◦ Not calculate effect of adaptations ◦ Use SRES, not SSP

2

Aim to clarify Impacts of climate change and socioeconomic conditions on food consumption and risk of hunger

Effects of adaptations on the climate change impacts

3

M-GAEZ ◦ Calculate a crop potential

yield in each 2.5’ grid cell on the global scale considering biological conditions.

Global CGE model ◦ Calculate amounts of

production, consumption and trade in response to change in prices and factor availability

4

Socio-economic Scenario

SSP

Climate scenario

Crop model M-GAEZ

AIM/CGE

Crop yield

GDP Food supply & demand Hunger population

2005-2050 17 regions and countries 26 commodities （6 groups of crops, 3 groups

of livestock products and fisheries）

5

Code Regions Code RegionsJPN Japan TUR TurkeyCHN China CAN CanadaIND India USA United StatesXSE Southeast Asia BRA BrazilXSA Rest of Asia XLM Rest of South AmericaXOC Oceania XME Middle EastEU25 EU25 XNF North AfricaXER Rest of Europe XAF Rest of AfricaCIS Former Soviet Union

Rice Meat cattleWheat Dairy cattleCereal grains nec Other livestocksOil crops FishingSugar cropsCrops nec

Agricultural commodities

Optimistic SSP1

Middle SSP2

Pessimistic SSP3

No Climate change (NoCC)

Assume present climate condition in the future

With climate change

RCP2.6

With adaptation in developing countries

Without adaptation

in developing countries

RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5

5 climate scenarios

3 socioeconomic scenarios

6

Adaptation: ◦ Change in crop variety and

planting dates ◦ Industrial & transition countries:

available ◦ Developing countries: available

(SSP1&2) & restricted (SSP3)

Population GDP per-capita

SSP1 Low High SSP2 Mid. Mid. SSP3 High Low

* “RCP”: Representative Concentration Pathway * “SSP”: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway

To clarify uncertainty associated with different climate models, we used 12 GCMs which participated in CMIP5

7

To clarify uncertainty associated with different

GCMRCP scenario

GridsLon.×lat.

Grid length on the

equator (km)2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5

BCC-CSM1.1 ✓ ✓ ☓ ✓ 128×64 313CanESM2 ✓ ✓ ☓ ✓ 128×64 313CNRM-CM5 ✓ ✓ ☓ ✓ 256×128 156GFDL-CM3 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 144×90 222GFDL-ESM2G ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 144×90 222GFDL-ESM2M ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 144×90 222HadGEM2-ES ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 192×145 138MIROC5 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 256×128 156MIROC-ESM ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 128×64 313MIROC-ESM-C ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 128×64 313MRI-CGCM3 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 320×160 125NorESM1-M ✓ ✓ ☓ ✓ 144×96 208

“CMIP5”: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

▲ 150▲ 100▲ 50

050

100150200250

EU25

Oce

ania

Japa

nCa

nada

Uni

ted

Stat

esRe

st o

f Eur

ope

Turk

eyCh

ina

Indi

aBr

azil

Form

er S

ovie

t Uni

onSo

uthe

ast A

siaRe

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f Asia

Rest

of S

outh

Am

eric

aM

iddl

e Ea

stN

orth

Afr

ica

Rest

of A

fric

a

Chan

ge in

yie

ld [%

] (N

oCC=

100)

NoCC: IMPACT CC： climate change impacts on crop yield

calculated from M-GAEZ & LPJ

8

NoCC: IMPACT

Change in crop yield caused by CC in 2050 (RCP8.5, HadGEM2ES)

“CC”: reflecting damages due to climate change in the future. “NoCC”: assuming present climate condition in the future.

Per capita calorie intake ◦ Income elasticity of food demand by regions and

commodities is calculated based on Bruinsma et al, (2010)

Bioenergy consumption ◦ A ratio of bioenergy consumption to the total

expenditure is assumed to be constant for the future

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Calculate calorie intake from tonne-based consumption

Calculate population at the risk of hunger from calorie intake

10

Calculate calorie intake from tonne-based

Per-capita consumption

Per-capita calorie intake

Population at the risk of hunger

Calorie per 100 grammes

Relation between per-capita calorie intake and a ratio of population at the risk of hunger

Extraction ratio

y = 1,557.06973 e(0.00189)x

R² = 0.92883

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

飢餓リスク人口割合

(%)

kcal/person/day

Rate

of h

unge

r pop

ulat

ion

(%)

per-capita calorie intake

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In industrial countries, production in SSP3 will be lowest among the SSP because population decreases in SSP3.

In developing countries, production in SSP3 will be highest among the SSPs as a result of higher population growth and lower income improvement.

Future low income improvement causes large per-capita consumption of crops rather than meat.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4In

dust

rial

Tran

sitio

n

Deve

lopi

ng

Indu

stria

l

Tran

sitio

n

Deve

lopi

ng

Indu

stria

l

Tran

sitio

n

Deve

lopi

ng

Indu

stria

l

Tran

sitio

n

Deve

lopi

ng

Indu

stria

l

Tran

sitio

n

Deve

lopi

ng

Rice Wheat Cereal grains nec Sugar crops Oil crops

Prod

uctio

n [b

illio

n to

n]

2005

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

Indu

stria

l

Tran

sitio

n

12

• Range: Uncertainty of multi-RCPs and multi-General Circulation Model (GCMs)

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

2005 2030 2050

Per-

capi

ta-c

alor

ie [k

cal/

pers

on/d

ay]

SSP3

SSP1

SSP2

Per-capita calorie intake has a large difference among the SSPs.

Socioeconomic condition is a large factor in food consumption.

NoCC

Median

A socioeconomic scenarios seems to be a strong factor in climate change impacts.

Even in RCP 2.6 where mitigation challenges will be high, climate change will impact food consumption.

In RCP 8.5, the calorie intake will be lower than RCP 2.6. Differences among RCPs are not as large as that among SSPs.

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-3.5%

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

RCP2

.6

RCP4

.5

RCP6

.0

RCP8

.5

RCP2

.6

RCP4

.5

RCP6

.0

RCP8

.5

RCP2

.6

RCP4

.5

RCP6

.0

RCP8

.5

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3

Chan

ge in

per

-cap

ita ca

lorie

inta

ke

[No

Clim

ate

Chan

ge=1

00]

High Low Median

In India, Rest of Asia and Rest of Africa, 2.2% to 10% lower calorie intake than NoCC

In India, 10% is a result of large climate change impacts and small amounts of extra arable land.

This situation causes greater land scarcity, higher crop prices and less food consumption.

14

▲ 12.0▲ 10.0▲ 8.0▲ 6.0▲ 4.0▲ 2.00.02.0

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

EU25

Oce

ania

Japa

nCa

nada

Uni

ted

Stat

esRe

st o

f Eur

ope

Turk

eyCh

ina

Indi

aBr

azil

Form

er S

ovie

t Uni

onSo

uthe

ast A

siaRe

st o

f Asia

Rest

of S

outh

Am

eric

aM

iddl

e Ea

stN

orth

Afr

ica

Rest

of A

fric

a

Chan

ge ra

tio in

cal

orie

inta

ke [%

](N

oCC=

100)

Per-

capi

ta c

alor

ie in

take

[k

cal/

day/

pear

son]

NoCC SSP3&RCP8.5

15

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

2005 2030 2050

Risk

of h

unge

r [bi

llion

peo

ple]

SSP3

SSP1SSP2

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

2005 2030 2050

Risk

of h

unge

r [bi

llion

peo

ple] SSP3

SSP1

SSP2

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

2005 2030 2050

Risk

of h

unge

r [bi

llion

peo

ple]

SSP3

SSP1

SSP2

DevelopingTransition

WorldSSP3 & RCP8.5 0.89 bil. people (0.86 to 0.94 bil. people)

NoCC

Future population at risk of hunger depends strongly on socioeconomic conditions.

Increase in SSP3&RCP8.5 is caused partially by a higher ratio of population at risk of hunger due to lower per-capita calorie intakes and population increase.

Range: Uncertainty of multi-RCPs & multi-GCMs

16

-1001020304050607080

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Chin

a

Indi

a

Sout

heas

t Asia

Rest

of A

sia

Braz

il

Rest

of S

outh

Amer

ica

Form

er S

ovie

tU

nion

Mid

dle

East

Rest

of A

fric

a

Chan

ge in

pop

ulat

ion

at ri

sk o

f hun

ger

[%](N

oCC=

100)

Popu

latio

n at

risk

of h

unge

r [%

] (N

oCC=

100)

NoCC SSP3&RCP8.5

In India, Rest of Asia and Rest of Africa, the populations are expected to be larger by 120 mil., 16 mil. and 3 mil people than those of NoCC.

In contrast, in the Former Soviet Union, the population is less by 0.2 million people than those of NoCC.

Climate change impact on risk of hunger is different among regions because levels of calorie intakes and climate change impacts on crop yield vary region by region.

Change ratio

Which is stronger factor to risk of hunger, socioeconomic or climate conditions?

How much is the effect of adaptation measures?

17

Which is stronger factor to risk

SSP1 & SSP2 SSP3 With

adaptation in developing countries Without

adaptation in developing countries

Population & GDP

18

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

2005 2030 2050

Risk

of h

unge

r [bi

llion

peo

ple] SSP3

SSP1

SSP2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2005 2030 2050

Risk

of h

unge

r [bi

llion

peo

ple]

SSP3 without adaptationSSP3 with adaptationSSP2 without adaptationSSP2 with adaptationSSP1 without adaptationSSP1 with adaptationSSP1 with adaptation (median)SSP1 without adaptation (median)SSP2 with adaptation (median)SSP2 without adaptation (median)SSP3 with adaptation (median)SSP3 without adaptation (median)SSP1 (No climate change)SSP2 (No climate change)SSP3 (No climate change)

SSP3

SSP1

SSP2

Other adaptations such as irrigation implementation will be necessary to lower the increase in population at risk of hunger.

Range: Uncertainty of multi-RCPs & multi-GCMs

We analyzed climate change impacts on food consumption and population at risk of hunger using 3SSPs, 4RCPs & 12GCMs

Climate change impacts on food consumption and population at

risk of hunger depends more strongly on socioeconomic conditions rather than climate conditions

Even in the most optimistic scenarios: SSP1&RCP2.6, climate change is expected to make the impacts.

Levels of the impacts will vary in different countries and regions

Adaptation measures; changes in crop variety and planting dates do not contribute to lower risk of hunger, but contribute to narrow the range of future uncertainty of the risk caused by multi-GCMs.

To lower the increase in risk of hunger due to climate change, other resource-intensive adaptation such as irrigation and further utilization of fertilizer will be necessary.

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We analyzed climate change impacts on food consumption and population at risk of We analyzed climate change impacts on food consumption and population at risk of We analyzed climate change impacts on food consumption and

hunger using 3SSPs, 4RCPs & 12GCMsWe analyzed climate change impacts on food consumption and

hunger using 3SSPs, 4RCPs & 12GCMsWe analyzed climate change impacts on food consumption and

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21

0

5000

10000

15000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Mil

num

ber

World Population

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

bil 2

005

US$

/yea

r

World GDP

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3