T E C H N O L O G I C A L C H A N G E I S A C C E L E R AT I N G T O D AY AT A N U N P R E C E D E N T E D S P E E D A N D C O U L D C R E AT E A W O R L D W E C A N B A R E LY B E G I N T O I M A G I N E .
TOMORROW’S WORLD
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
n March 2001, futurist Ray Kurzweil published an essay arguing that humans found it hard to comprehend their own future. It was clear from history, he argued, that technological change is exponential — even though most of us are unable to see it — and that in a few decades, the world would be unrecog-nizably different. “We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate),” he wrote, in ‘The Law of Accelerating Returns’.
Fifteen years on, Kurzweil is a director of engineering at Google and his essay has acquired a cult following among futurists. Some of its predictions are outlandish or over hyped — but technology experts say that its basic tenets often hold. The evidence, they say, lies in the exponential advances in a suite of enabling technolo-gies ranging from computing power to data storage, to the scale and performance of the Internet (see ‘Onwards and upwards’). These advances are creat-ing tipping points — moments at which technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), biology, nanotechnology and 3D printing cross a threshold and trigger sudden and significant change. “We live in a mind-blowingly different world than our grandpar-ents,” says Fei-Fei Li, head of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in California, and this will be all the more true for our children and grandchildren.
Kurzweil and others have argued that people find this pace of change almost impossible to grasp, because it is human nature to perceive rates of progress as linear, not exponential — much as when one zooms in on a small part of a circle and it appears as an almost straight line. People tend to focus on the past few years, but pulling back reveals a much more dramatic change. Many things that society now takes for granted would have seemed like futuristic nonsense just a few decades ago. We can search across billions of pages, images and videos on the web; mobile phones have become ubiquitous; billions of connected smart sensors monitor in real time everything from the state of the planet to our heart-beats, sleep and steps; and drones and satellites the size of shoeboxes roam the skies.
If the pace of change is exponentially speeding up, all those advances could begin to look trivial within a few years. Take ‘deep learning’, a form of artificial intelligence that uses powerful microprocessor chips and algorithms to simulate neural networks that train and learn through experience, using massive data sets. Last month, the Google-owned AI company DeepMind used deep learning to enable a computer to beat for the first time a human professional at the game of Go, long considered one of the grand challenges of AI. Researchers told Nature that they foresee a future just 20 years from now — or even sooner — in which robots with AI are as common as cars or phones and are integrated into families, offices and factories. The “disruptive expo-nentials” of technological change will create “a world where everybody can have a robot and robots are pervasively integrated in the fabric of life”, says Daniela Rus, head of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. After decades in development, applications of AI are moving into the
real world, says Li, with the arrival of self-driving cars, virtual reality and more. Progress in AI and robotics is likely to accelerate rapidly as deep-pocketed companies such as Google, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft pour billions of dollars into these fields. Gill Pratt, former head of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Robotics Challenge, asked last year whether robotics is about to undergo a ‘Cambrian explo-sion’ — a period of rapid machine diversification (G. A. Pratt J. Econ.
Perspect. 29, 51–60; 2015). Although a single robot cannot yet match the learning ability of a toddler, Pratt pointed out that robots have one huge advan-tage: humans can communicate with each other at only 10 bits per second — whereas robots can com-municate through the Internet at speeds 100 million times faster. This could, he said, result in multitides of robots building on each other’s learning experi-ences at lightning speed. Pratt was hired last Sep-tember to head the Toyota Research Institute, a new US$1-billion AI and robotics research venture head-quartered in Palo Alto, California.
Many researchers say that it is important to pre-pare for this new world. “We need to become much more responsible in terms of designing and operating these robots as they become more powerful,” says Li.
In January 2015, a group including Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Stephen Hawking penned an open letter calling for extensive research to maxi-mize the benefits of AI and avoid its potential pitfalls. The letter has now been signed by more than 8,000 people.
Yet predicting the future can be a fool’s game — and not everyone is convinced that technological change will hit humanity quite so fast. Ken Goldberg, an engineer at the University of California, Berkeley, questions the idea that technologies advance exponentially across the board, or that those that do will continue indefinitely. “The danger of overly optimistic exuberance is that it could set unrealistic expecta-tions and trigger the next AI winter,” he says, alluding to periods in AI’s history where hype gave way to disappointment followed by steep cuts in funding. Goldberg says that recent warnings that AI and robots risk surpassing human intelligence are “greatly exaggerated”.
And Stuart Russell, a computer scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, questions the notion that exponential advances in technology necessarily lead to transformative leaps. “If we had comput-ers a trillion times faster we wouldn’t have human-level AI; half in jest, one might say we’d just get wrong answers a trillion times sooner,” he says. “What matters are real conceptual and algorithmic breakthroughs, which are very hard to predict.”
Russell did sign the Hawking letter — and says it is important not to ignore the ways that technologies could be taken in potentially
harmful directions with profound results. “We made this mistake with fossil-fuel technologies 100 years ago — now it’s probably too late.” ■
Declan Butler is a senior reporter for Nature.
W E L I V E I N A M I N D - B L O W I N G L Y
D I F F E R E N T W O R L D T H A N O U R G R A N D P A R E N T S .
TOMORROW’S WORLD B Y D E C L A N B U T L E R
ILLU
STR
ATIO
N B
Y G
REY
GO
UA
R
I
FUTURE GENERATIONSA Nature special issuenature.com/futuregenerations
Nature
2 5 F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 6 | V O L 5 3 0 | N A T U R E | 3 9 9
FEATURE NEWS
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
STAR
THE
RE!
COMP
UTIN
G POW
ERTh
e ex
pon
enti
al g
row
th in
su
per
com
put
ing
per
form
ance
is
one
ind
icat
or o
f d
izzy
ing
adva
nces
acr
oss
com
put
ing.
EN
ABLE
RS
ONWA
RDS
UPWA
RDS
Exp
onen
tial
adv
ance
s in
ena
blin
g te
chno
logi
es
have
rea
ched
the
poi
nt a
t w
hich
the
y co
uld
trig
ger
disr
upti
ve c
hang
e in
sec
tors
from
art
i�ci
al
inte
llige
nce
to r
obot
ics
to m
edic
ine.
As
a re
sult
, m
any
expe
rts
argu
e th
at t
omor
row
’s w
orld
will
be u
nrec
ogni
zabl
e fr
om t
hat
of t
oday
.
REAL
LY BI
G DAT
ATh
e am
ount
of
dat
a w
orld
wid
e is
p
red
icte
d t
o re
ach
a w
hop
pin
g 4
4 z
etta
byt
es (
10
21 b
ytes
) b
y 2
02
0 —
nea
rly
as m
any
dig
ital
b
its
as t
here
are
sta
rs in
the
U
nive
rse.
Thi
s gi
ves
mor
e ra
w
mat
eria
l for
art
i�ci
al-i
ntel
ligen
ce
mac
hine
s to
lear
n fr
om.
COMM
UNIC
ATIO
N SPE
EDM
eanw
hile
, the
per
form
ance
and
sc
ale
of t
he I
nter
net
imp
rove
s.
Bro
adb
and
and
WiF
i sp
eed
s ar
e in
crea
sing
, and
Int
erne
t d
ata
tra�
c w
ill e
xcee
d a
zet
tab
yte
this
ye
ar a
nd d
oub
le b
y 2
01
9.
All
thes
e fa
ctor
s ar
e no
w c
onve
rgin
g to
pus
h se
emin
gly
futu
rist
ic t
echn
olog
ies
out
of t
he la
b,
and
set
the
m o
n th
e sa
me
pat
h ta
ken
by
per
sona
l com
put
ing
and
con
sum
er e
lect
roni
cs.
Sup
erco
mp
uter
s in
20
20
ar
e lik
ely
to b
e 3
0 t
imes
m
ore
pow
erfu
l tha
n th
ose
of t
oday
.
A fu
ll br
ain-
activ
ity m
ap a
nd c
onne
ctom
eby
202
0 an
d by
204
0 it
will
be
rout
ine
to re
adan
d w
rite
dat
a to
bill
ions
of n
euro
ns. B
y 20
40,
1 bill
ion
peop
le w
ill h
ave
thei
r who
le g
enom
e se
quen
ced
and
get c
onst
ant u
pdat
es o
f the
ir
imm
unom
es a
nd m
icro
biom
es.
GEOR
GE C
HURC
HG
enet
icis
t at
Har
vard
Med
ical
Sch
ool,
Cam
brid
ge, M
assa
chus
etts
�e
prom
ise
for t
he fu
ture
is a
wor
ld w
here
ro
bots
are
as c
omm
on a
s car
s and
pho
nes,
a
wor
ld w
here
eve
rybo
dy c
an h
ave
a ro
bot a
nd
robo
ts a
re p
erva
sivel
y in
tegr
ated
in th
e fa
bric
of li
fe.
DANI
ELA
RUS
Hea
d of
the
Com
pute
r S
cien
ce a
nd A
rti�
cial
Int
ellig
ence
La
bora
tory
at
the
Mas
sach
uset
ts I
nsti
tute
of
Tech
nolo
gy,
Cam
brid
ge
In th
e ne
xt c
oupl
e of
gen
erat
ions
, we
will
see
the
first
pha
se o
f tru
e pe
rson
al, a
ssis
tive
robo
ts
in th
e ho
me
and
othe
r hum
an e
nvir
onm
ents
. �
ere
will
be
a hu
ge o
ppor
tuni
ty to
bet
ter t
he
qual
ity o
f life
, for
exa
mpl
e by
free
ing
up p
eopl
e fr
om w
ork.
FEI-
FEI L
IH
ead
of t
he S
tanf
ord
Art
i�ci
al I
ntel
ligen
ce L
abor
ator
y, C
alif
orni
a To
mor
row
’s sc
ient
ists
will
hav
e ar
mie
s of v
irtu
al
grad
uate
stud
ents
, doi
ng la
b w
ork,
stat
istic
al
anal
ysis
, lite
ratu
re se
arch
and
eve
n pa
per-
wri
ting
for t
hem
.PE
DRO
DOM
INGO
SM
achi
ne-l
earn
ing
rese
arch
er,
Uni
vers
ity
of W
ashi
ngto
n, S
eatt
le
A p
ossi
ble
‘Cam
bria
n ex
plos
ion’
in ro
botic
s w
ith a
rapi
d pe
riod
of i
ncre
dibl
e m
achi
ne
dive
rsifi
catio
n. R
obot
s com
mun
icat
ing
with
ea
ch o
ther
at s
peed
s tha
t are
100
mill
ion
times
fa
ster
than
hum
ans m
ight
allo
w sw
arm
s of
robo
ts to
bui
ld o
n ea
ch o
ther
’s le
arni
ng
expe
rien
ces a
t lig
htni
ng sp
eed.
GILL
PRA
TTH
ead
of t
he T
oyot
a R
esea
rch
Inst
itut
e, P
alo
Alt
o, C
alif
orni
a
BIOLO
GY BO
OMS
Con
cep
tual
and
tec
hnol
ogic
al
adva
nces
are
dri
ving
pro
gres
s in
b
iolo
gy. D
NA
seq
uenc
ing
cost
s ha
ve
falle
n at
an
exp
onen
tial
rat
e an
d t
he
num
ber
of
sequ
ence
s ha
s so
ared
sin
ce
19
85
(se
e in
set)
. Sim
ilar
adva
nces
are
ha
pp
enin
g in
neu
rosc
ienc
e an
d
bio
logi
cal n
anot
echn
olog
y.
LIKE I
T, PR
INT I
T3
D p
rint
ing
is b
ecom
ing
chea
per
and
qui
cker
— o
ne
fact
or t
hat
coul
d d
isru
pt
man
ufac
turi
ng a
nd a
llow
on
ce-p
rice
y ro
bot
ics
to b
e m
ass
pro
duc
ed.
—RISE
OF RO
BOTS
Pur
chas
es o
f ro
bot
s ar
e se
t to
roc
ket
as t
heir
cap
abili
ties
incr
ease
and
cos
ts
fall,
a t
rend
dri
ven
by
mas
sive
in
vest
men
ts in
art
i�ci
al in
telli
genc
e an
d r
obot
ics
by
the
mili
tary
and
by
com
put
ing
gian
ts s
uch
as G
oogl
e.
TALK
ING D
EVICE
SB
y 2
02
0, t
he n
umb
er o
f co
nnec
ted
sen
sors
and
d
evic
es in
bui
ldin
gs, c
itie
s an
d fa
rms
— t
he ‘I
nter
net
of
Thin
gs’ –
– w
ill b
e tw
ice
that
of
the
hum
an p
opul
atio
n.
—
BY D
ECLA
N BU
TLER
/ DE
SIGN
BY
WES
FER
NAND
ES
1
2
34
5
6
7
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
04
20
13
20
18
20
23
20
15
20
09
20
20
20
19
20
14
&
ILLUSTRATIONS BY GREYGOUAR
DRIVE
RS
TO TH
EFU
TURE
!
FUTU
REFO
CUS
Exp
ert
pred
icti
ons
END
HERE
!2
00
62
00
82
01
02
01
22
01
42
01
62
01
82
02
0
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Fore
cast
Fore
cast
Fore
cast
0
10
,00
0
20
,00
0
30
,00
0
40
,00
0E
xab
ytes
10
0 g
iga�
op s
–1
10
ter
a�op
s–1
Per
form
ance
(lo
gari
thm
ic s
cale
)
1 p
eta�
op s
–1
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abyt
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1
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adba
nd
Data
Wor
ld’s
mos
t pow
erfu
l super
com
pute
r
2 0468
10
3.3
4.1
5.2
6.6
8.4
10
.5
Bill
ions
of
mac
hine
-to-
mac
hine
con
nect
ions
Seq
uen
ce r
ecor
ds
in G
enB
ank
Whol
e ge
nom
e se
quen
ces
1,0
00
10
,00
0
10
0,0
00
1,0
00
,00
0
10
,00
0,0
00
10
0,0
00
,00
0
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00
,00
0,0
00
Num
ber
of
sequ
ence
s (l
ogar
ithm
ic s
cale
)
Pri
ntsp
eed
10
cm
3 h
r –1
40
cm
3 h
r –1
80
cm
3 h
r –1
Glo
bal
rob
otic
mar
ket
(US
$b
illio
ns)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
MIL
ITA
RY:
Exo
skel
eton
s,
unm
anne
d a
eria
l veh
icle
s
IND
UST
RIA
L: W
eld
ing,
as
sem
bly
, pai
ntin
g ro
bot
s
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L: M
edic
al,
bui
ldin
g, fa
rmin
g ro
bot
s
PE
RS
ON
AL:
Cle
anin
g,
teac
hing
, chi
ldca
re r
obot
s
19
85
20
15
20
04
SOURCES: 4. CISCO VNI GLOBAL IP TRAFFIC FORECAST, 2014–2019; 5. NCBI; 6. EPSRC; DIRECT MANUFACTURING RESEARCH CENTER; ROLAND BERGER; 7. INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF ROBOTICS, JAPAN ROBOT ASSOCIATION; JAPAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE & INDUSTRY; EUROBOTICS; BCG.
FEAT
URE
NEW
S
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved
STAR
THE
RE!
COMP
UTIN
G POW
ERTh
e ex
pon
enti
al g
row
th in
su
per
com
put
ing
per
form
ance
is
one
ind
icat
or o
f d
izzy
ing
adva
nces
acr
oss
com
put
ing.
EN
ABLE
RS
ONWA
RDS
UPWA
RDS
Exp
onen
tial
adv
ance
s in
ena
blin
g te
chno
logi
es
have
rea
ched
the
poi
nt a
t w
hich
the
y co
uld
trig
ger
disr
upti
ve c
hang
e in
sec
tors
from
art
i�ci
al
inte
llige
nce
to r
obot
ics
to m
edic
ine.
As
a re
sult
, m
any
expe
rts
argu
e th
at t
omor
row
’s w
orld
will
be u
nrec
ogni
zabl
e fr
om t
hat
of t
oday
.
REAL
LY BI
G DAT
ATh
e am
ount
of
dat
a w
orld
wid
e is
p
red
icte
d t
o re
ach
a w
hop
pin
g 4
4 z
etta
byt
es (
10
21 b
ytes
) b
y 2
02
0 —
nea
rly
as m
any
dig
ital
b
its
as t
here
are
sta
rs in
the
U
nive
rse.
Thi
s gi
ves
mor
e ra
w
mat
eria
l for
art
i�ci
al-i
ntel
ligen
ce
mac
hine
s to
lear
n fr
om.
COMM
UNIC
ATIO
N SPE
EDM
eanw
hile
, the
per
form
ance
and
sc
ale
of t
he I
nter
net
imp
rove
s.
Bro
adb
and
and
WiF
i sp
eed
s ar
e in
crea
sing
, and
Int
erne
t d
ata
tra�
c w
ill e
xcee
d a
zet
tab
yte
this
ye
ar a
nd d
oub
le b
y 2
01
9.
All
thes
e fa
ctor
s ar
e no
w c
onve
rgin
g to
pus
h se
emin
gly
futu
rist
ic t
echn
olog
ies
out
of t
he la
b,
and
set
the
m o
n th
e sa
me
pat
h ta
ken
by
per
sona
l com
put
ing
and
con
sum
er e
lect
roni
cs.
Sup
erco
mp
uter
s in
20
20
ar
e lik
ely
to b
e 3
0 t
imes
m
ore
pow
erfu
l tha
n th
ose
of t
oday
.
A fu
ll br
ain-
activ
ity m
ap a
nd c
onne
ctom
eby
202
0 an
d by
204
0 it
will
be
rout
ine
to re
adan
d w
rite
dat
a to
bill
ions
of n
euro
ns. B
y 20
40,
1 bill
ion
peop
le w
ill h
ave
thei
r who
le g
enom
e se
quen
ced
and
get c
onst
ant u
pdat
es o
f the
ir
imm
unom
es a
nd m
icro
biom
es.
GEOR
GE C
HURC
HG
enet
icis
t at
Har
vard
Med
ical
Sch
ool,
Cam
brid
ge, M
assa
chus
etts
�e
prom
ise
for t
he fu
ture
is a
wor
ld w
here
ro
bots
are
as c
omm
on a
s car
s and
pho
nes,
a
wor
ld w
here
eve
rybo
dy c
an h
ave
a ro
bot a
nd
robo
ts a
re p
erva
sivel
y in
tegr
ated
in th
e fa
bric
of li
fe.
DANI
ELA
RUS
Hea
d of
the
Com
pute
r S
cien
ce a
nd A
rti�
cial
Int
ellig
ence
La
bora
tory
at
the
Mas
sach
uset
ts I
nsti
tute
of
Tech
nolo
gy,
Cam
brid
ge
In th
e ne
xt c
oupl
e of
gen
erat
ions
, we
will
see
the
first
pha
se o
f tru
e pe
rson
al, a
ssis
tive
robo
ts
in th
e ho
me
and
othe
r hum
an e
nvir
onm
ents
. �
ere
will
be
a hu
ge o
ppor
tuni
ty to
bet
ter t
he
qual
ity o
f life
, for
exa
mpl
e by
free
ing
up p
eopl
e fr
om w
ork.
FEI-
FEI L
IH
ead
of t
he S
tanf
ord
Art
i�ci
al I
ntel
ligen
ce L
abor
ator
y, C
alif
orni
a To
mor
row
’s sc
ient
ists
will
hav
e ar
mie
s of v
irtu
al
grad
uate
stud
ents
, doi
ng la
b w
ork,
stat
istic
al
anal
ysis
, lite
ratu
re se
arch
and
eve
n pa
per-
wri
ting
for t
hem
.PE
DRO
DOM
INGO
SM
achi
ne-l
earn
ing
rese
arch
er,
Uni
vers
ity
of W
ashi
ngto
n, S
eatt
le
A p
ossi
ble
‘Cam
bria
n ex
plos
ion’
in ro
botic
s w
ith a
rapi
d pe
riod
of i
ncre
dibl
e m
achi
ne
dive
rsifi
catio
n. R
obot
s com
mun
icat
ing
with
ea
ch o
ther
at s
peed
s tha
t are
100
mill
ion
times
fa
ster
than
hum
ans m
ight
allo
w sw
arm
s of
robo
ts to
bui
ld o
n ea
ch o
ther
’s le
arni
ng
expe
rien
ces a
t lig
htni
ng sp
eed.
GILL
PRA
TTH
ead
of t
he T
oyot
a R
esea
rch
Inst
itut
e, P
alo
Alt
o, C
alif
orni
a
BIOLO
GY BO
OMS
Con
cep
tual
and
tec
hnol
ogic
al
adva
nces
are
dri
ving
pro
gres
s in
b
iolo
gy. D
NA
seq
uenc
ing
cost
s ha
ve
falle
n at
an
exp
onen
tial
rat
e an
d t
he
num
ber
of
sequ
ence
s ha
s so
ared
sin
ce
19
85
(se
e in
set)
. Sim
ilar
adva
nces
are
ha
pp
enin
g in
neu
rosc
ienc
e an
d
bio
logi
cal n
anot
echn
olog
y.
LIKE I
T, PR
INT I
T3
D p
rint
ing
is b
ecom
ing
chea
per
and
qui
cker
— o
ne
fact
or t
hat
coul
d d
isru
pt
man
ufac
turi
ng a
nd a
llow
on
ce-p
rice
y ro
bot
ics
to b
e m
ass
pro
duc
ed.
—RISE
OF RO
BOTS
Pur
chas
es o
f ro
bot
s ar
e se
t to
roc
ket
as t
heir
cap
abili
ties
incr
ease
and
cos
ts
fall,
a t
rend
dri
ven
by
mas
sive
in
vest
men
ts in
art
i�ci
al in
telli
genc
e an
d r
obot
ics
by
the
mili
tary
and
by
com
put
ing
gian
ts s
uch
as G
oogl
e.
TALK
ING D
EVICE
SB
y 2
02
0, t
he n
umb
er o
f co
nnec
ted
sen
sors
and
d
evic
es in
bui
ldin
gs, c
itie
s an
d fa
rms
— t
he ‘I
nter
net
of
Thin
gs’ –
– w
ill b
e tw
ice
that
of
the
hum
an p
opul
atio
n.
—
BY D
ECLA
N BU
TLER
/ DE
SIGN
BY
WES
FER
NAND
ES
1
2
34
5
6
7
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
04
20
13
20
18
20
23
20
15
20
09
20
20
20
19
20
14
&
ILLUSTRATIONS BY GREYGOUAR
DRIVE
RS
TO TH
EFU
TURE
!
FUTU
REFO
CUS
Exp
ert
pred
icti
ons
END
HERE
!2
00
62
00
82
01
02
01
22
01
42
01
62
01
82
02
0
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Fore
cast
Fore
cast
Fore
cast
0
10
,00
0
20
,00
0
30
,00
0
40
,00
0E
xab
ytes
10
0 g
iga�
op s
–1
10
ter
a�op
s–1
Per
form
ance
(lo
gari
thm
ic s
cale
)
1 p
eta�
op s
–1
10
0 p
eta�
op s
–1
10
exa
�op
s–1
10 0
20
30
40
50
Meg
abyt
e s–
1
WiF
i
Bro
adba
nd
Data
Wor
ld’s
mos
t pow
erfu
l super
com
pute
r
2 0468
10
3.3
4.1
5.2
6.6
8.4
10
.5
Bill
ions
of
mac
hine
-to-
mac
hine
con
nect
ions
Seq
uen
ce r
ecor
ds
in G
enB
ank
Whol
e ge
nom
e se
quen
ces
1,0
00
10
,00
0
10
0,0
00
1,0
00
,00
0
10
,00
0,0
00
10
0,0
00
,00
0
1,0
00
,00
0,0
00
Num
ber
of
sequ
ence
s (l
ogar
ithm
ic s
cale
)
Pri
ntsp
eed
10
cm
3 h
r –1
40
cm
3 h
r –1
80
cm
3 h
r –1
Glo
bal
rob
otic
mar
ket
(US
$b
illio
ns)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
MIL
ITA
RY:
Exo
skel
eton
s,
unm
anne
d a
eria
l veh
icle
s
IND
UST
RIA
L: W
eld
ing,
as
sem
bly
, pai
ntin
g ro
bot
s
CO
MM
ER
CIA
L: M
edic
al,
bui
ldin
g, fa
rmin
g ro
bot
s
PE
RS
ON
AL:
Cle
anin
g,
teac
hing
, chi
ldca
re r
obot
s
19
85
20
15
20
04
SOURCES: 1. TOP500; 2. IDC DIGITAL UNIVERSE STUDY, 2012; 3. CISCO VISUAL NETWORK INDEX (VNI), 2015.
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved