Top-level Research Initiative
Interaction between climate change and cryosphere
Magnus FribergChair of Programme Committee
TFI annual Conference, 16 September 2010
UNEP map of Cryosphere
The present Cryosphere
The past CryosphereUnderstanding feed-back loops
2xCO2, cold orbit8.29x106 km3
(Oligocene c. 25 My)
1xCO2, cold orbit30.50x106 km3
(Last Glacial Maximum)
DeConto et al., Nature, 2008Future is data poor
Onset of glaciations
DeConto et al., Nature, 2008
Zachos, Dickens, Zeebe, (2008)
Amplifies initial growth Produces
hysteresis
CO2 cooling
Hysteresis
Stability of large ice sheets
From DeConto 2010
DeConto et al., Nature, 2008
East Antarctic Ice Sheet hysteresis
N. Hem ice sheet hysteresis
Stability of large ice sheets
Trace gases and shortlived climate drivers
IPCC report AR4 WG1, 2007
The Role of Permafrost
Walsh et. al 2010, ACIA report
The Sea ice extent over time
IPCC report AR4 WG1, 2007
NCoE – ICCC
Nordic Centre of Excellence Programme
Interaction between Climate Change and the
Cryosphere
Purpose and rationale
The objective of ICCC is to support science driven questions of high interest to society, science, industry and/or national infrastructure.
All Nordic countries are effected by the Cryosphere
IPCC models performs badly for the Cryosphere
Important for industries like hydropower, forestry, fishing, transport, exploration and tourism
Nordic Cryosphere research is in many ways world leading
Project duration is five years (3+2)
Funding covers:• Support to researcher and key staff• Fellowships for visiting professors • Fellowships for post docs• Fellowships for PhD students• Nordic research schools (research training)• Equipment • Travel, management and co-ordination
Support to ICCC NCoE
Objectives of CRAICC – Cryosphere-Atmosphere Interactions in a Changing Arctic Climate • Role of short-lived climate
forcing agents - SLCF
• Identify and quantify the major processes controlling Arctic warming and related feedback mechanisms and to outline strategies to mitigate Arctic warming
• Develop Nordic Earth System modelling
• Supradisciplinary knowledge transfer
Objectives of DEFROST
• To improve our understanding of Arctic terrestrial and shallow sub-sea permafrost interactions with climate
• To provide improved data on energy exchange, carbon cycling and GHG emissions from terrestrial and near coastal cryospheric environments
• To improve on climate model capabilities for simulating the feedback processes associated with observed changes in permafrost, snow and ice
Objectives of SVALI – Stability and Variations of Arctic Land Ice
• A comprehensive joint Nordic research programme to study basic processes (flux of meltwater and icebergs from glaciers)
• Using remote sensing, airborne and in-situ measurements
• Carry out advanced Earth system Modelling
• Focus on glaciers in the Arctic /N-Atlantic area.
• Establish a Nordic graduate school in cryosphere science and Earth System modelling
Features of the centres in the NCoE programme
• Each NCoE has partners from all five Nordic countries, one including Greenland
• The NCoE programme has participation from the other Arctic countries (Russia, USA, Canada) and the UK
• Each NCoE has about 17 partners • The NCoE programme involves about 340 researchers
• Open data policy within and between NCoE’s
If the future becomes like the pastThe horrors of the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
Isfjorden viewed from Longyearbyen towards Pyramiden some 50 Million years
ago (pCO2 = 2000ppm)
(Nathorst 1910, Backman and Moran 2009)