www.ecn.nl
Top Sectors, TKI’s and targets Solar energy innovation in Dutch practice and global perspective
Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy, TKI Solar Energy, University of Amsterdam, FOM-Institute AMOLF and European Photovoltaic Technology Platform Bijeenkomst Vereniging voor Zonnekrachtcentrales UvA, Science Park Amsterdam Solstice 2013
Contents
• New Dutch innovation policy – about Top Sectors, TKI’s and Innovation Contracts
• Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy
– a brief history of development – targets and numbers – structure and status
• Photovoltaics
– science, technology and applications at a glance – from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains – its role for NL
• PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed?
2
Contents
• New Dutch innovation policy – about Top Sectors, TKI’s and Innovation Contracts
• Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy
– a brief history of development – targets and numbers – structure and status
• Photovoltaics
– science, technology and applications at a glance – from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains – its role for NL
• PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed?
3
Essentials of new innovation policy
• Focus on a limited number of economic sectors (‘Top Sectors’) • Use (shrinking) public funds more efficiently and effectively • Put private sector (SME’s + large companies) in the driver’s seat • For each Top Sector:
– Organise innovation through ‘golden triangle’ (private sector, knowledge sector, government), or rather ‘platinum quadrangle’ (… + NGO’s)
– Appoint Top Team: – 1 SME representative, 1 knowledge sector representative, 1 government
representative, 1 ‘boegbeeld’ (‘sector face’) – Appoint Steering Group – Develop roadmap + implementation plan per subsector (= Innovation
Contract) – Establish (one or more per subsector) Top Consortium Knowledge &
Innovation (TKI) as vehicle for execution of Innovation Contract
4
9 Top Sectors as focus for economic development & innovation
5
• High Tech Systems & Materials • Agro-Food • Water • Energy • Horticulture & Starting Materials • Chemicals • Creative Industries • Logistics • Life-sciences • (Head Offices)
Contents
• New Dutch innovation policy – about Top Sectors, TKI’s and Innovation Contracts
• Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy
– a brief history of development – targets and numbers – structure and status
• Photovoltaics
– science, technology and applications at a glance – from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains – its role for NL
• PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed?
6
Meet the Top Team Energy
7
Subsectors Energy (TKI’s)
• Solar Energy TKI Solar Energy • Energy Efficiency in the Built Environment TKI EnerGO • Offshore Wind Energy TKI Wind op Zee • Bio-energy TKI Biobased Economy • Smart Grids TKI Switch2SmartGrids • Energy Efficiency in the Industry TKI ISPT • Gas TKI Gas
8
A brief history of events
• September 2011 : invitation to develop Innovation Contracts (IC’s)
• December 2011: submission vs1; review by Top Team & Steering Group
• February 2012: submission vs2; review by Top Team & Steering Committee budget allocation
• March 2012: submission of Action Plan 2012 (reduced budget)
• April 2012: Minister Verhagen formally signs contracts
• April – Dec 2012: establish TKI’s / from plans to projects
9
Innovation Contract Solar Energy (2012)
10
Targets: • creation of jobs (from 2000 in 2010 to 10,000
in 2020) • generation of sustainable energy (from 100
MWp to 4 GWp in 2020 and >20 GWp in 2030 and beyond)
Features: • Letters of Commitment & Intent 100 M€ over
5 yrs • private/public contributions 45%/55% (required >40%/60%)
Innovation Contract Solar Energy
11
Contents
• New Dutch innovation policy – about Top Sectors, TKI’s and Innovation Contracts
• Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy
– a brief history of development – targets and numbers – structure and status
• Photovoltaics
– science, technology and applications at a glance – from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains – its role for NL
• PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed?
13
First Solar Helianthos Würth Solar
Cell & module technologies Commercial
14
Flat plate: wafer-based silicon (>85%) - monocrystalline - multicrystalline & quasi mono Module efficiencies 14 ∼ 21%
Toyota City of the Sun (NL)
Concentrator (
Concepts & technologies Lab and pilot production
• super-high-efficiency concepts (nanotechnology at km2 area)
– full use of all light colors – advanced light management & concentration
• super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications)
– very fast and non-vacuum processing – low-cost materials & low material use
15
Example: spectrum conversion using
quantum dots (Univ. of Amsterdam)
Example: polymer solar cell (Solliance)
www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg
Commercial module efficiencies (selection) History + short-term projections (announced)
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si mono wafer Si HIT
wafer Si multi CdTe
CIGS
tf a/µcSi
tf aSi
wafer Si IBC
M.J. de Wild-Scholten SmartGreenScans
Commercial module efficiencies History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)
Building blocks: system approaches
19
• milliwatts to gigawatts • grid-connected, stand-alone • integrated, add-on, ground-based / buildings, infrastructure, field • electricity only, multifunctional (incl. PV-T) • fixed orientation, sun tracking • and more
Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar
Historic market growth - global Annual installations and cumulative capacity (MWp)
Source: EPIA (2013) Data 2012 preliminary
100 GWp (0.1 TWp)
Contributions of renewables to electricity consumption in Germany
21 Bron: Fraunhofer ISE (2013)
EU total: 2,5%
Great expectations Possible contributions PV (Germany)
22
15-30% PV
Grid integration Germany explores (and shifts) the frontiers
23
M. Lippert,
SAFT
Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2013)
Grid integration Effect on peak electricity prices
24
Gaëtan Masson EPIA,
@ EU PVTP GA 2012
Installed capacity NL: what did we achieve so far?
Correction: end 2011 145 MWp End 2012: ≈340 MWp (polderpv.nl)
Towards impact: the first step National Action Plan: 4 GW in 2020
• Action Plan: 4 GW in 2020 2,5-3% of NL electricity consumption
• EU-average 2012: 2,5% • Germany 2012: 5,7% (2020: 9-12%?) • Realistic range NL 2020: 4-8 GW 5-6% of electricity consumption = 1% of energy end-use = half of increase of target 14% 16% • Technical potential NL: >100 GW (>300 PJe)
PV rooftop system prices Germany (10-100 kWp)
Source: FhG ISE (2012)
x ⅓
Price-experience curve PV modules Effects of volume and innovation
28 Fraunhofer ISE (2013)
Price-experience curve PV modules Effects of volume and innovation
29 Fraunhofer ISE (2013)
≈2020
Great expectations Global market potential 2020
Breyer et al. @EUPVSEC 2011
Towards impact: 20 GW in 2030 (re: EU PV GRID project)
• Produced electricity: 15 – 18 TWh (using A ánd B locations)
• Electricity consumption 2012: 120 TWh
• Electricity consumption 2030: 150 TWh?
20 GW PV contributes 10 – 12% to total consumption (if overall losses can be kept small)
20 GW: what does it imply?
• @ 10 ∼ 40% module efficiency: – 50 ∼ 200 km2 net area (up to 500 km2 gross area) – 2 ∼ 8 million “family house roof equivalents” high efficiency is key for large-scale use
• Integration:
1. electrical: grid (>100% penetration) 2. societal: you cannot hide 20 GW of PV 3. physical: buildings, infrastructure and landscape
Public support: the horror case PV shoved down the throat
33 33
Oh my God, please help our country and send us a terrific and destructive hailstorm!
Courtesy Michael Marčák
Opportunities missed (or: threat?) PV as technology only
34 34
The opportunity (or: necessity?) PV as technology ánd design
35 35
RidderSolar
ECN’s Black Beauty
Beyond design and yield PV as statement
36
Utrecht CS
Zadar Coast, Croatia
Kaohsiung, Taiwan Green Pix; Beijing, China
Columbuskwartier, Almere
Total quality (assurance) Necessity for GW-scale use
• Components, systems, installers, production processes, etc.
• Broad lack of understanding; many urban legends
• (Desperate) need for coordination, information and communication
• High priority in R&D and industry
37
?
Sustainability Materials
38 38
2011
Sustainability Materials
• introduction of new materials driven by (potential) scarcity or price risks, e.g.: silver copper or indium zinc-tin
39
x7 in 7 years
Contents
• New Dutch innovation policy – about Top Sectors, TKI’s and Innovation Contracts
• Innovation Contract & TKI Solar Energy
– a brief history of development – targets and numbers – structure and status
• Photovoltaics
– science, technology and applications at a glance – from niche to terawatts: successes and growing pains – its role for NL
• PV and CSP (and solar fuels): a winning team - a message yet to be conveyed?
40
IEA Solar Energy Perspectives Scenario “Testing the Limits” – total energy
41
IEA Solar Energy Perspectives Mainstreaming of solar electricity
42
Shell Lens Scenarios - 03 2013
43
www.shell.com/ global/future-energy/ scenarios.html
Shell Lens Scenarios
44
Shell Lens Scenarios (Oceans)
45
The future at a glance
46
Current 2020 Long-term potential
Commercial module efficiency flat plate/concentrator (%) 6∼21 / 25∼30 10∼25 / 30∼35 20∼40+
Turn-key system price (flat plate) (€/Wp)
1∼4
0.8∼3
0.6∼1.5
Cost of electricity (LCoE, €/kWh)
0.05∼0.40
0.04∼0.30
0.03∼0.15
Energy pay-back time (yrs) 0.5∼2 0.25∼1 0.25∼0.5
Installed capacity (TWp) 0.1 0.5∼1 10-50
The future at a glance
47
Current 2020 Long-term potential
Commercial module efficiency (%) 5∼20 / 25∼30
(Si: 12∼20)
10∼25 / 30∼35
(Si: 16∼24)
20∼40+
(Si: 20∼30+)
Turn-key system price (flat plate) (€/Wp)
1.2∼5
0.8∼3
0.6∼1.5
Cost of electricity (LCoE, €/kWh)
0.06∼0.50
0.04∼0.30
0.03∼0.15
Energy pay-back time (yrs) 0.5∼2 0.25∼1 0.25∼0.5
Installed capacity (TWp) 0.1 0.5∼1 10-50
x 2∼3
x ½∼⅓ x 100+
48 City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard, NL
Top Sectors, TKI’s and targetsContentsContentsEssentials of new innovation policy9 Top Sectors as focus for economic development & innovationContentsMeet the Top Team EnergySubsectors Energy (TKI’s)A brief history of eventsInnovation Contract Solar Energy (2012)Innovation Contract Solar EnergyContentsCell & module technologies �CommercialConcepts & technologies �Lab and pilot productionDianummer 16Commercial module efficiencies (selection)�History + short-term projections (announced)Commercial module efficiencies�History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)Building blocks: system approachesHistoric market growth - global�Annual installations and cumulative capacity (MWp)Contributions of renewables to�electricity consumption in Germany Great expectations�Possible contributions PV (Germany)Grid integration�Germany explores (and shifts) the frontiersGrid integration�Effect on peak electricity prices�Installed capacity NL:�what did we achieve so far?Towards impact: the first step �National Action Plan: 4 GW in 2020PV rooftop system prices Germany�(10-100 kWp)Price-experience curve PV modules�Effects of volume and innovationPrice-experience curve PV modules�Effects of volume and innovation Great expectations�Global market potential 2020Towards impact: 20 GW in 2030�(re: EU PV GRID project)20 GW: what does it imply?Public support: the horror case�PV shoved down the throatOpportunities missed (or: threat?)�PV as technology onlyThe opportunity (or: necessity?)�PV as technology ánd designBeyond design and yield�PV as statementTotal quality (assurance)�Necessity for GW-scale use�Sustainability�MaterialsSustainability�MaterialsContentsIEA Solar Energy Perspectives�Scenario “Testing the Limits” – total energyIEA Solar Energy Perspectives Mainstreaming of solar electricityShell Lens Scenarios - 03 2013Shell Lens ScenariosShell Lens Scenarios (Oceans)The future at a glanceThe future at a glanceDianummer 48
