Top30mostpromisingemerginggrocerymarkets_852

© IGD 2013

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TOP 30 MOST PROMISING EMERGING GROCERY MARKETS

Special Analysis, June 2013

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© IGD 2013

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© IGD 2013

Content

• This Special Analysis is intended to help international grocery businesses identify the best near-term prospects for development

• The charts describe the operational environment in the most strategically important markets

• Analysis is based on IGD’s Market Attractiveness Scoreboard, new research that ranks national grocery markets in order of growth potential for 2013 to 2016

• In the interests of clarity and brevity, developed markets have been excluded from the study

• Developed markets will, however, remain key battlegrounds for both suppliers and retailers – detailed coverage of these is available elsewhere on Retail Analysis

http://retailanalysis.igd.com/Hub.aspx?id=53&tid=4


© IGD 2013

The world economy is now about 8% bigger than it was when the Credit Crunch began in 2007

Source: Macroeconomic database, USDA, June 2013

Taking a world view, the effects of the Credit Crunch

and the Great Recession have

largely dissipated

Top grocery retail markets

© IGD 2013

Credit Crunch amplifies pre-existing trends

Source: World Economic Outlook database, IMF, June 2013. Date for 2013-18 is IMF estimates.

Emerging and developing nations were outperforming in the run-up to the Credit Crunch and have retained this lead in its aftermath.

In contrast, for businesses in Europe, Japan and the USA, the economic environment remains very difficult.


© IGD 2013

Grocery retail markets: BRICs climb up ranking

Source: IGD Datacentre. Green text indicates BRIC markets.

2008 2012 2016 Forecast

Rank Country US$ bn Rank Country US$ bn Rank Country US$ bn

1 US 848 1 China 1,082 1 China 1,582

2 China 612 2 US 940 2 US 1,118

3 France 317 3 Japan 408 3 India 566

4 India 310 4 India 375 4 Brazil 468

5 Japan 307 5 Brazil 329 5 Russia 467

6 Germany 296 6 Russia 314 6 Japan 423

7 Russia 256 7 France 284 7 France 302

8 UK 250 8 Germany 271 8 Germany 297

9 Brazil 229 9 UK 243 9 UK 278

10 Italy 190 10 Indonesia 168 10 Indonesia 247

11 Spain 148 11 Italy 165 11 Italy 166

12 Mexico 109 12 Mexico 123 12 Mexico 154

13 Indonesia 107 13 Spain 122 13 Canada 133

14 Canada 96 14 Canada 111 14 Spain 131

15 South Korea 84 15 Australia 108 15 Turkey 128

TOTAL 4,158 TOTAL 5,046 TOTAL 6,460


© IGD 2013

BRIC and US to be the top five grocery markets

• China will be 42% larger than the US by 2016, valued at US$1,582 billion in 2016

• The US grocery market will remain the second largest globally – expect growth to accelerate somewhat with a CAGR of 4.6% between 2013 and 2016, supported by improving economic data: lower unemployment, improving GDP growth and firmer house prices

• By 2016, the Indian grocery market will have overtaken Japan as the world’s third largest

• Brazil is set to climb to fourth position with a CAGR of 9.1% between 2012 and 2016. With the country set to host the football World Cup in 2014 and the Summer Olympic Games in 2016, investment will remain strong, sustaining growth and its attractiveness for suppliers


Wholesale markets in Sâo Paulo, Brazil


All of the BRIC nations will be in the top five grocery markets by 2016, worth a total of US$4.2 trillion

© IGD 2013

IGD’s Market Attractiveness Scoreboard

• To go beyond market sizes, IGD has computed a Market Attractiveness Scoreboard

• It combines 17 data points and scores the future potential of 60 national grocery markets

• Real term growth is a key factor, but a range of other, “softer and future” factors are also included

• “Soft” factors reflect the pace of commercial development, strategic interest and general market sentiment

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. Figures in red denote the weighting given to that factor out of the final score.

Inputs into IGD’s Market Attractiveness Scoreboard include 17 weighted current and future factors


© IGD 2013

Top 30 Most Promising Emerging Grocery Markets

Rank Market Score(max 100)

1 China 81.22 Brazil 77.03 Russia 76.84 Turkey* 75.25 Indonesia* 65.66 India 64.77 Vietnam* 64.58 Mexico 63.99 Thailand 62.6

10 Argentina 60.911 South Africa* 60.712 Malaysia 60.613 Poland 60.114 United Arab Emirates 58.915 Colombia* 57.8


Rank Market Score(max 100)

16 Chile 57.617 Romania 57.518 Saudi Arabia 57.019 Peru 55.820 Philippines 53.321 Ukraine 51.722 Kazakhstan 49.823 Kenya 48.924 Nigeria 48.725 Dominican Republic 48.126 Sri Lanka 47.627 Morocco 46.828 Egypt* 43.229 Angola 41.930 Cambodia 40.9

*Beyond the BRICs, the six CIVETS – Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa – also appear in IGD’s Top 30 most promising emerging grocery markets


© IGD 2013

What makes these markets attractive?



From the 17 factors across the Market Attractiveness Scoreboard, we have identified four common features across the leading markets.

© IGD 2013

China is the world’s largest grocery market

• After a period of intensive development, most major eastern cities have adequate provision of large format grocery stores

• Maintaining strong growth has been a challenge for retailers in China, as domestic demand has eased and costs have risen

• Retailers are looking to rebalance their models, driving costs down through better use of technology, more efficient processes and labour structures

• Future development is expected to focus on smaller store formats in eastern cities and the extension of modern retail into smaller cities, especially in the west

• Around 70% of Chinese grocery sales are via traditional channels in 2013, so there is scope for modern retail to grow, including online/ mobile retailing

• The market is fragmented, with the largest operator – Auchan, incl. RT Mart – having less a 2% share of the national market

• Global brands remain attractive, offering a reassurance of quality – essential, in view of ongoing food safety scandals

Quik, owned by Lianhua, operates over 2,000 convenience stores, both directly and via franchise.

In Autumn 2012, 1,000 virtual Yihaodian stores appeared in central locations across four cities.

A complex, yet crucial, grocery market opportunity. Doing business effectively requires good local knowledge and contacts.



© IGD 2013

Brazil ranks second in IGD’s Scoreboard

This upmarket Pão de Açúcar store has a strong fresh produce offer, along with a loyalty scheme.

The impression of abundance and value – as at this Andorinha store – is very important to Brazilian shoppers.

But this raises issues of stock control and excess working capital for businesses.

Brazil has a unique retail culture, with a strong focus on fresh produce, branded groceries and high-profile promotions. Many goods are bought on credit, with payment made via instalments.

• Brazil has done well from extensive reforms and a burgeoning middle-class

• Growth and development are not uniform – Brazil is vast and there are major disparities between regions

• Modernisation and consolidation of grocery retail is progressing more slowly than might be expected

• Independent retail provides a strong source of competition to global players

• One reason for this is that untaxed sales allow small operators to cancel out the scale benefits of larger ones. Another is that trading between regions is difficult

• Fragmentation of the grocery market means that suppliers need to have a strategy for dealing with wholesalers

• Future development is expected to focus on loyalty, supply chain operations and private label



© IGD 2013

Russia: a less frenetic race for spacePyaterochka is a soft discount store in Moscow, operated by X5.

It has a daily “happy hour”, with an extra 5% off everything.

Perekrestok, also operated in Moscow by X5, is aimed at more affluent shoppers, though it is not far from the other store.

By using multiple fascias, X5 meets the needs of a wide range of shoppers.

Looking ahead, there are major opportunities for the modern convenience format to replace traditional kiosks.

Private label is also seen as a route to growth.

• Grocery retailing in Russia has modernised rapidly, development has focused on the discount format

• Discounters account for most stores in Russia. They have done well in recent years due to economic conditions, but some are moving towards a more value-added offer

• Activity is shaped by Russia’s unique geography, with most investment occurring in a few large, western cities – serving the Russian hinterland is very difficult and infrastructure investment is badly needed

• Store growth has been rapid in recent years. The top 20 retailers added nearly 3,000 stores in 2012 alone. The number of new stores will remain high, but the pace of addition will slow to an average of 13% in 2013 and 2014, down from 23% in 2012

• The grocery market is dominated by local chains, with the largest retailer being X5, with a 6% share

• Market regulations prevent any single operator from achieving a share greater than 25% within any regulatory district



© IGD 2013

Turkey: local discounters dominate

With profitability difficult to come by, operational efficiencies remain key and further retail consolidation is likely.

• Istanbul is reassuming its historical role as a regional distribution hub and Turkey wants to become a production centre with incentives for R&D companies to enter

• The gap between rich and poor is eroding – the expanding middle class is the main driver of growth, but customers remain very price conscious

• This supports the popularity of local discounters – like BIM and A101 – and places a strong focus on value private label

• Discounters lead modern grocery retailing, accounting for 50% of sales and more than 80% of stores

• In 2013 grocery retailing remains dominated by traditional formats, but modern channels are gaining in influence

• Adding sites in the biggest cities is seen as more crucial than building a nationwide presence

• In the future, expect consolidation as well as organic store expansion to re-shape the regional retailing landscape


In April 2013, DIA announced the sale of its Turkish business.

Carrefour has also re-organised its JV in Turkey to make its locally-based Sabanci JV partner the majority stakeholder in Carrefour SA.


* Comparative data is unavailable for Migros Ticaret for 2007 and it stopped providing the data from 2011 onwards

© IGD 2013

Indonesia: convenience and markets lead

Retail is primarily via smaller stores – there are very few hypermarkets, although Matahari operates larger sites.

• Indonesia has a large, ethnically-diverse population, scattered across multiple islands

• This creates major challenges for grocery businesses, especially in logistics. Traffic in urban locations is often very congested

• Generally, supply chains are fragmented and inefficient, with local wholesalers and distributors playing a key role in serving the traditional trade

• Modern grocery retailing accounts for about 20% of total sales, although this proportion is gradually rising

• Consolidation is expected as smaller operators struggle to maintain profitability

• International retailers – like Dairy Farm, Delhaize and 7-Eleven – are present in the market, but retail is fragmented. The largest retailer is Indomaret, with a market share of less than 2%

• Online retail is developing rapidly – many Indonesians have Internet access and smartphone usage is spreading. Online grocery retailing remains a future opportunity


Note the motorcycles outside this modern convenience store.

Most Indonesians do not have cars – motorcycles are preferred, limiting the size of purchases.

Warungs – street stalls, markets and other traditional outlets are a lifeline for many Indonesians.

Government figures are disputed, but there is no doubt that millions of Indonesians are very poor.


© IGD 2013

India: still a long-term play for global retailers

Most Indian grocery retail is via traditional markets or kirana stores.

As a wholesaler, Booker was able to enter India early – it now offers a symbol

package called Happy Shopper.

• The Indian middle class is growing fast and Western businesses tend to focus here, but much of the population suffers from serious poverty – the price of food remains a constant hot issue

• Infrastructure is variable – electronic communications, like mobile phones – are good, but roads remain poor, a serious issue for grocery businesses

• Only c.10% of Indian grocery retail is in the hands of “modern” operators and this is concentrated, with most modern stores in a few major cities

• The bulk of Indian grocery retail is still done via traditional markets and kirana stores. There are about 12m of these and they play an important social and cultural role

• India’s vigorous democracy may be slowing development – economic and legislative reform is difficult to achieve and laws vary from place-to-place

• Until 2012, it was not possible for international multi-brand retailers to invest directly in India. This is changing but the situation remains unclear – limiting the pace of expansion

India has enormous cultural, ethnic and economic diversity – it is difficult to make sweeping statements about “the” Indian market.



© IGD 2013

Saudi Arabia: unlocking an unique market

• Due to the country’s legal framework suppliers are unable to operate directly in Saudi Arabia and, therefore, work with distributors who act on their behalf to get product into stores

• With modern retail channels accounting for only 30 – 35% of value sales in 2012, there is a large, untapped section of the market for retailers to expand into

• Hypermarkets are shoppers’ favoured channel. Shopping is entertainment and so whole families visit shopping malls, which are usually anchored by hypermarkets

• 90% of products are imported as there is only a limited manufacturing base in the country

• Trading relationships are of a transactional nature with the focus on maximising trading terms

• Generally Trade Marketing, Category Management and Shopper understanding are at a comparatively low level, and are only likely to become embedded in the market in the medium term

With 26 million inhabitants and the largest grocery market in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia presents huge opportunities for suppliers.


Modern store designs and eye catching fixtures attract shoppers, but brand blocking makes the process harder.


© IGD 2013

For regular insights on key growth regions…


For up-to-date analysis of regional trends, retailers’ results, channel and growth strategies, look out for our ‘In Focus’ series on Retail Analysis – in our Trends section ‘Global Retailing’


http://retailanalysis.igd.com/Hub.aspx?id=101&tid=9&trid=7

© IGD 2013

Supplier investment in emerging markets

• As part of IGD’s Market Attractiveness Scoreboard we considered the importance of supplier investment in a country, both from a historic viewpoint – last two years – and from a future viewpoint, i.e. where companies are planning to spend more in the coming years

• To do so, we sampled a large number of annual reports from food and consumer goods suppliers – including those shown below – to measure the growing importance of emerging markets in terms of revenues and profits

• We also incorporated softer factors informed by IGD’s global expertise. We have surveyed international suppliers and met with locally-based operations in a number of markets to find out what is happening on the ground

• This section highlights, through a selection of case studies, the current focus of several global suppliers in our industry. The examples selected showcase how leading suppliers are targeting emerging market opportunities



© IGD 2013

Emerging markets’ growing share of sales (part 1)

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. Red = emerging markets, blue = developed. Definition of ‘Emerging markets’ differs by supplier.

Supplier 2012 Sales (Emerging / Developed)

Value of emerging markets 2012

Emerging market performance 2012 Focus markets

US$15.5bn +12.5% in like-for-like terms

BRICs + Mexico, Poland, Turkey

US$42.5bn +11.4% BRICs + Indonesia, Philippines, Central Africa

US$8.5bn Not availableBRICs + Mexico,

Philippines, South Africa, Thailand

US$15.6bn +0.2% BRICs + Mexico, SE Asia

US$40.3bn +11% BRICs, Nigeria, Vietnam


© IGD 2013

Emerging markets’ growing share of sales (part 2)

Supplier 2012 Sales (Emerging / Developed)

Value of emerging markets 2012

Emerging market performance 2012 Focus markets

US$11.4bn +7.1%BRICs + Egypt, Kazakhstan,

Kenya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam

US$6.2bn +33%(2010/2012)

BRICs + Ethiopia, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, South

Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam

US$32.0bn >14% BRICs + 6 markets

US$22.9bn Not available BRICs + Argentina, Mexico, Saudi Arabia

US$10.4bn +10%BRICs + Argentina,

Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. Red = emerging markets, blue = developed. Definition of ‘Emerging markets’ differs by supplier.


© IGD 2013

Asia ranks highly in IGD’s Attractiveness Index

Source: IGD Datacentre. Diageo 2012 Annual Report, L’Oréal 2012 Annual Report

>50%

41% - 50%

30% - 40%

<30%

Grocery retail market growth 2012 – 2016“The strategy in Asia Pacific is to drive net sales growth through the continued development of super and ultra premium scotch and harness the emerging middle class consumer opportunity...”

Diageo 2012, Annual Report

“L’Oréal is increasing market share in [Asia, Pacific]. India, Indonesia and Thailand are particularly dynamic, driven by local initiatives…”

L’Oréal 2012, Annual Report

“Along with China and India, we are quite clear that Vietnam is one of the top three emerging markets for us…”

Diageo – David Moore, Regional Counsel, Diageo Greater China speaking in 2011


© IGD 2013

China is Nestlé and P&G’s second largest market

• Nestlé recently added new research units in Xiamen and Dongguan as well as ‘a dairy farming institute’ in Heilongjiang province

• With these softer investments, Nestlé demonstrates its ‘desire to benefit from the incredible capabilities and know-how which China has to offer’

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. Nestlé 2012 Annual Report, P&G 2012 Annual Report

0% 30% 60% 90% 120%

Share of Nestle's global sales

2011/2012 % growth CHF

Nestlé’s boost from Greater China

• In its 2012 annual report, P&G stressed the fact that growth does not have to come at the expense of profit:

“Our 40 largest businesses generate more than 50% of sales and nearly 70% of operating profit. They are disproportionately in the U.S. and China, which are P&G’s first and second largest, most profitable markets, respectively.”

“China would now be Nestlé’s second biggest market, with annualised sales of around CHF 6 billion, including [recent] acquisitions and our 2011 partnerships…” Nestlé 2012, Annual Report


© IGD 2013

Latin America delivers strong growth for suppliers

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

15.0%

Latin America Foods

Asia, Middle East and

Africa

Frito-Lay North

America

Europe PepsiCo Americas Beverages

Quaker Foods North

America

PepsiCo organic revenue growth FY2012

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. PepsiCo, Unilever 2012 Annual Report

• In 2012, PepsiCo's Latin America Foods division delivered the strongest organic growth globally

• In the region, PepsiCo benefited from a 10% rise in effective net pricing and from a 13% growth in volume sales. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico were highlighted as enjoying strong organic revenue growth in 2012

• This growth has continued into Q1 2013

• New product launches and innovative promotions – such as Toddy cookies in Argentina and the partnership with Burger King and the Spanish football league – helped boost growth and build brand awareness across the region

“Brazil and Argentina, our most important markets in Latin America...”

Unilever 2012, Annual Report

“In Q1 2013, we had terrific growth across our major developing markets with organic revenue growth of

6% in Mexico, 8% in Turkey, and 12% in Brazil.” PepsiCo Q1 2013 Results Earnings Call


© IGD 2013

Brazil attracts large scale investments

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. ABInBev 2012 Annual Report, Nestlé 2012 Annual Report

• Brazil remains Latin America’s biggest draw. With a large population and democratic institutions, which protect the rule of law, the country’s investment outlook is bright

• This has encouraged suppliers to acquire local brands, like Diageo to purchase the Ypióca Group in 2012, and Mondelēz, in 2011, to invest US$200 million to expand its production facilities and marketing budget

• In 2012 a number of suppliers enjoyed the benefits of shoppers trading up to more expensive items, buoyed by consumer confidence

• For example Diageo said that the market’s ‘middle class consumers… are driving the growth of premium brands’, a sentiment echoed by Unilever when discussing the successful launch of its TRESemmé hair care brand in Brazil

• Suppliers’ sales performance were also boosted by strong marketing campaigns. Colgate-Palmolive emphasised the gains made from shifting ‘media spending… to productive print and digital vehicles’, which led to it doubling its return on investment

• Whilst the pace of economic growth has slowed in H1 2013, a tight labour market means the nation’s shoppers remain optimistic about the future, suggesting that the market will remain important in the medium to longer term

“Since launching Budweiser in Brazil in 2011… volumes [have] continued to grow and distribution has doubled

since the first quarter of 2012.” ABInBev 2012, Annual Report

“In Latin America we have continued to see generally positive trends…

In Brazil, most categories grew double-digit. Highlights included the successful

launches of Kit Kat and peelable ice cream...”

Nestlé 2012, Annual Report


© IGD 2013

Russia still provides profitable growth avenues

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. Danone Presentation to CAGE Conference 19 March 2013

• Russia is Danone’s largest market – tied with France – accounting for 10% of its value sales in 2012

• Danone has taken a long term investment programme, adding scale over a 20 year period and has used it as a base for expansion in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine

• However, growth has not been linear. The company faced issues in 2011, that were rectified in 2012 by cutting ‘unprofitable, traditional, local brands’ from its portfolio and focusing on ‘value added brands’

• The right price point for a product differs by category. Premium beer drove sales for Heineken in 2012, but Diageo benefited from ‘more affordable brands’ – like White Horse in Russia – that enabled it to boost its performance

• However, understanding the differences of the Russian shopper is key for a number of suppliers. L’Oréal, for example, opened an evaluation centre in Moscow to help it ‘meet consumer needs perfectly’

“Another big engine of growth is our CIS business and the merger of Danone and Unimilk has now transformed it into a powerful player… with all the key brands now growing very fast...”

Danone Presentation to CAGE Conference 19 March 2013


In-store brand activation in an X5 Karusel hypermarket – left – and in a Dixy discount store – right.

© IGD 2013

Africa grows in importance for beer producers

• Alcoholic drinks companies have invested substantially in Africa in recent years. In 2011, Heineken bought five breweries in Nigeria and two in Ethiopia and in 2013, Diageo has acquired Ethiopia’s Meta Abo Brewery

• With more stable political situations in a number of markets, the region is proving increasingly exciting for suppliers

• Africa’s increasing fiscal strength has been boosted by strong commodity prices and a “demographic dividend”, as the number of workers relative to children and the elderly increases. These items should act as long term supports for the region’s growth prospects

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. *UNCTADstat – http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

“Africa continues to unfold as the most promising continent for growth in the beer category.”

Heineken 2012, Annual Report

“While it was a further year of strong growth in beer… the accelerated growth of spirits means they are now making a significant contribution.”

Diageo 2012, Annual Report

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa

Inward foreign direct investment US$*

1990/2000 CAGR 2000/2010 CAGR 2010/2011


http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

© IGD 2013

South Africa serves as a launch pad for Africa

Source: IGD Research, June 2013. Subsidiaries information taken from P&G’s Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30 2012

• In March 2013, P&G underlined its commitment to South Africa by announcing a ZAR1.6 bn (US$173.8 mn) investment in a new manufacturing plant

• P&G’s experience has shown that affordability is key. Producing smaller pack sizes has boosted brands’ penetration across all income groups

• The company has also underlined the need for a strong and sizeable network of sales people given the number of independent stores spread over a large geographical region

• P&G will use South Africa as a manufacturing base for southern and east Africa, with its investment in the country part of a strategy for the continent as a whole, mirroring Walmart’s initiative, who acquired a stake in Massmart for this reason

• In future, P&G expects regional integration in Africa to increase. It hopes this will enhance infrastructure and help support the easier movement of its brands across borders

“We are in Africa because of the size. It's about a billion people, that's the size of China and India for example, just under, and the population is growing, the economies are getting more and more stable, so [there are] huge opportunities here. We have businesses in Nigeria, in Kenya, Uganda,

Tanzania – we are going to go to Angola, Ethiopia.” Dimitri Panayotopoulos, P&G’s vice chairman of its Global Business Units, March 2013

P&G’s subsidiaries in Africa

Future marketsExisting presence


© IGD 2013

Emerging grocery markets – five points to consider

There is still growth to be found in developed countries and suppliers need to recognise the importance of driving sales in core markets. However, long term growth will come from elsewhere. You can use IGD’s Market Attractiveness Scoreboard to identify future hot spots.


1

2

3

4

5

Successful suppliers have acquired a local brand or worked with a joint venture to enable them to introduce their existing brands into new markets. This knowledge has helped them differentiate products by using selling points specific to that country’s shoppers.

Suppliers are at very different points in their expansion into emerging markets, underlining how opportunities remain for those just starting out. To succeed, those starting out would do well to focus on city-based markets that will enable them to build awareness and shopper knowledge of their brand – through a locally-based marketing programme – before expanding nationwide.


Building knowledge of local shoppers’ preferences – around pricing and products – has been key to many companies who have won in emerging markets. This is especially the case in geographically large markets, where preferences may differ from region to region.

Online development is accelerating quickly in a number of emerging markets, with many leveraging mobile as a route to shoppers. Building expertise within digital media is key for suppliers in countries where adoption, especially by the young, is high.

© IGD 2013

What next….?

1

2

Keep up to date on the latest news from the leading markets:Explore the Global retailing hub page on Retail Analysis

See our market data, with forecasts to 2016

Visit the Retail Analysis Datacentre on Retail Analysis

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Check the Innovation trends page on Retail Analysis


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