Topic 5 – Migration and Health

GS 1 – Introduction to Global StudiesProfessor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography

Topic 5 – Global Population and Migration

A – Global DemographyB – International MigrationC – Health and Epidemics

© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

A – GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

Demographic HistoryPopulation TrendsDemographic TransitionPopulation Distribution


World Population, 1000BC-2050AD (in billions)

-1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 20000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Population “explosion”A process of strong demographic growth.Started after the Second World War.About 80 million people added each year.


Population Added to the Global Population, 1950-2010 (in millions per year)

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Addition Growth Rate

Mill

ions

Grow

th R

ate

(%)


World Population 1804-2048 (in billions)

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 20500

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Series1

118 years37 years

15 years

13 years

12 years

13 years

15 years

20 years


Scenarios of Global Population Growth, 2009-2050

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

ReferenceLowHigh


World’s 15 Largest Countries, 2005, 2050 (in millions)

India

China

United States

Pakistan

Indonesia

Nigeria

Bangladesh

Brazil

Ethiopia

Congo, DR of

Mexico

Egypt

Philippines

Viet Nam

Japan

-200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

1,096,917

1,329,927

300,038

161,151

225,313

130,236

152,593

182,798

74,189

56,079

106,385

74,878

82,809

83,585

127,914

434,521

75,264

108,657

187,549

68,484

128,242

102,006

50,342

96,798

95,565

33,843

52,529

44,156

34,108

-18,192

2005Growth (2005-2050)


Population Change between 2000 and 2050 (%)

Ireland

United States

France

Sweden

Britain

Poland

Netherlands

Germany

Russia

Spain

Italy

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30


Demographic Transition Theory

Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV

Birth RateDeath RateTotal Population

Explain the demographic transition theory and its impacts on global population growth.


Stages in Demographic Transition

Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV

High birth rates High birth rates Falling birth rates Low birth rates

No or little Family Planning.Parents have many children because few survive.Many children are needed to work the land.Children are a sign of virility.Religious beliefs and cultural traditions encourage large families.

Family Planning.Lower infant mortality rates.Industrialization means less need for labor.Increased desire for material possessions and less desire for large families.Emancipation of women.

Children as liabilities instead of assets (no economic contribution as labor).

High death rates Falling death rates Low death rates Low death rates

Disease and plague (e.g. bubonic, cholera, kwashiorkor).Famine, uncertain food supplies and poor diet.Poor hygiene, no clean water or sewage disposal.

Improved medicine.Improved sanitation and waters supply.Improvements in food production in terms of quality and quantity.Improved transport to move food.Decrease in child mortality.

Modern medicine.Optimal life expectancy.


Survivorship of the British Population, 17th and 20th Centuries

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 850

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

17th Century1999 (M)1999 (F)

Age

Surv

ivors

hip


Crude Birth Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991

1751

1761

1771

1781

1791

1801

1811

1821

1831

1841

1851

1861

1871

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

BritainIrelandFranceSwedenGermanyItaly


Crude Death Rates, Western Europe, 1751-1991

1751

1761

1771

1781

1791

1801

1811

1821

1831

1841

1851

1861

1871

1881

1891

1901

1911

1921

1931

1941

1951

1961

1971

1981

1991

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

BritainIrelandFranceSwedenGermanyItaly


Total Fertility Rate, Selected Units, 1950-2010

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

World EuropeNorth AmericaChinaAfricaIndia


Fertility Transition in some Countries, 1962-2007

Nigeria

Philipp

ines

Egypt

Bangla

desh

India

Mexico

Indon

esia

Brazil

China

South

Korea

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1962 1982 1990 2000 2007

TFR


Share of Global Population per Continent, 1700-2000

1700

1720

1740

1760

1780

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OceaniaAsiaMiddle EastCISAfricaEuropeLatin AmericaNorth America


Relationship Between Fertility and GDP per Capita, Selected Countries, 2007

200 2000 200000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

United States

Germany

Japan

RussiaFrance

South Korea Hong KongChina

Indonesia

Egypt

Vietnam

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

NigeriaEthiopia

Niger

Kenya

Thailand

Congo

Singapore

Mexico

GPD per Capita

TFR

With is the relationship between TFR and GDP and to what this relation may be attributed to?


World Population by Age Group, 1950-2050

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0.0

200,000,000.0

400,000,000.0

600,000,000.0

800,000,000.0

1,000,000,000.0

1,200,000,000.0

1,400,000,000.0

1,600,000,000.0

1,800,000,000.0

2,000,000,000.0

Aged 0-14 Aged +65


World Population Density and Distribution, 2005

Typical concentrations along major river systems.Areas of large concentrations: South Asia, East Asia, Western Europe, Northeastern North America.“Empty” areas are attributed to: harsh physical landscapes and harsh temperature.

To what factors may be attributable the distribution of the global population?


Essay: Global Demography

Based upon the material seen in class, elaborate about the world’s major demographic challenges in the coming years.


B – INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Types of MigrationMigration PatternsBrain DrainMigration PolicyRefugees


Types of Migration

■ Emigration and immigration• Change in residence.• Relative to origin and destination.

■ Requires information• People and conditions.• Two different places.• Two different times.

■ Duration• Permanent.• Seasonal / Temporary.

■ Choice / constraint• Improve one’s life.• Leave inconvenient / threatening

conditions.

A

B

Problems or benefits?

Problems or benefits?

Emigrant

Immigrant


Types of Migration

■ Gross migration• Total number of people coming in

and out of an area.• Level of population turnover.

■ Net Migration• Difference between immigration (in-

migration) and emigration (out-migration).

• Positive value:• More people coming in.• Population growth (44% of North

America and 88% of Europe).• Negative value:

• More people coming out.• Population decline.

Emigration

Immigration

Net migration

Gross migration


Net Migration, 2005-10

Read this content

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch2en/conc2en/global_net_migration.html


Types of Migration

■ International Migration• Emigration is an indicator of economic and/or social failures of a

society.• Crossing of a national boundary.• Easier to control and monitor.• Laws to control / inhibit these movements.• Between 2 million and 3 million people emigrate each year.• Between 1965 and 2000, 175 million people migrated:

• 3% of the global population.


Immigration to the United States, 1820-2013 (Millions)

0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

BritishIsles

GermanyScandinavia

SoutheastEurope

Latin AmericaAsia

Explain the different waves of immigration the US has been subject to.


Region of Birth of the Foreign-Born Population: 1850 to 2010

2010200019901980197019601930192019101900189018801870186018500

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

Europe Asia Africa Latin America Northern America


Top 10 Countries of Origin for US Legal Immigrants, 1995-2008

Mexico

China

India

Philippines

Russia

Dominican Republic

Vietnam

Colombia

El Salvador

Guatemala

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

2008 2000 1995


US Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1990-2050

1990 2000 2025 20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

75.669.1

6253

912.5

18

24

11.712.1 13

14

3.6 6.3 7 9

Asian/OtherBlackHispanicWhite


Foreign Born as % of Metropolitan Population

Dubai

Miami

Toronto

Muscat

Hong Kong

Vancouver

Los Angeles

New York

Melbourne

Amsterdam

London

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


Brain Drain

■ Definition• Relates to educationally specific selective migrations.• Globalization:

• Requires additional pools of skilled labor force.• Easier to migrate.

• Some countries are losing the most educated segment of their population.

• Can be both a benefit for the receiving country (brain gain) and a problem to the country of origin.


Brain Drain

■ Receiving country• Tap various labor pools.• Highly qualified labor contributing to the economy right away.• Promotes economic growth in science and technology.• Not having to pay education and health costs.• It costs about $300,000 to educate an average American.• 50% of skilled migrants go to the US. Only 5% go to Europe.• 30% of Mexicans with a PhD are in the US.


Brain Drain

■ Country of origin• Education and health costs not paid back.• Losing potential leaders and talent:

• Developing countries lose 15% of their graduates.• 15 to 40% of a graduating class in Canada will move to the US.• 50% of Caribbean graduates leave.

• Long term impact on economic growth.• Possibility of remittances.• Many brain drain migrants have skills which they can’t use at

home:• The resources and technology may not be available.• The specific labor market is not big enough.


Percentage of College Educated Citizens Living Abroad

Haiti

Ghana

Mozambique

Kenya

Laos

Uganda

Angola

Somalia

El Salvador

Sri Lanka

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


Brain Drain

■ A reverse migration trend• High costs in developed countries.• New opportunities in developing countries.• Part of the offshoring process of many manufacturing and service

activities.• Qualified personnel coming back with skills and connections.• Particularly for South Korea, Taiwan, China and India.• Increasing number of Americans working overseas.

Explain the nature, causes and possible consequences of brain drain.


Migration Policies and Global Migration PatternsPeriod Policies Pattern

Before 1914 Open policies (“showing up”). Immigration as a source of labor and development.

From developed (Europe) to developing countries (Americas, Africa, Australia). Immigration from Europe between 1880 and 1910 was exceeded 25 million.

1920s and 1930s

“Closed door” linked with the economic depression. Deportation of immigrants.

Limited migration.

After 1945 More open policies. Reconstruction in Europe (12% of labor force) and economic growth in America.

Beginning to shift from developing to developed countries (12%).

After 1973 Relatively open policies, but with more stringent requirements. Growth of refugees and illegal immigration.

From developing to developed countries (88%). 3 million illegal immigrants entering the US per year. Estimates of 20-38 million illegals in the US alone.


Migration Policy

■ Growing level of temporary migration schemes• Work permits.• More in tune with seasonal and economic cycles.

■ Skilled migrants are increasingly sought after• Lower costs.• Cannot be easily recruited by another corporation.

■ Growing anti-immigration stance in many countries• Health: carry endemic diseases.• Economic: depress wages and increase social burden.• Nationalism: undermine the cohesion of nation-states.• Environment: cause additional population burdens.


Remittances Received, 1970 – 2014 (Millions of US dollars)

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

MexicoPhillipinesChinaIndiaWorld


Refugees

■ The United Nations definition• The 1951 Convention Regarding the Status of Refugees and the

1967 Protocol on the Status of Refugees:• “..... any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for

any reasons of race, religion, nationality, member of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.…” .

• The problem lies in the definition of who is a refugee.• There are no international agreements to protect people who

cross boundaries for their economic survival.


Refugees

■ Conditions to qualify for refugee status• Political persecution must be demonstrated.• An international boundary must be crossed:

• Domestically displaced persons do not qualify.• Protection by one’s government is not seen an alternative:

• The government may be the persecutor.• Could be incapable of protecting its citizens from persecution.


Refugees

■ Origins• The first recorded refugees were the Protestant Huguenots who

left France to avoid religious persecution.• About 200,000 at the end of the 17th century.• Went to England, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the English

colonies in North America.■ Pre-WW II and during WW II

• Primarily political elites:• Fleeing repression from the new government, which overthrew them.• Usually small in number and often had substantial resources available to

them.• War-driven refugees:

• About 12% of the European population displaced.• Usually could be expected to repatriate after the war ended.


Refugees

■ Post WW II• Change in the patterns of refugee flows:

• The majority of refugees are now coming from the developing world.• De-colonization in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean:

• Political unrest in many newly independent states.• Multi-ethnic nature of those states.• The result of the drawing of colonial boundary lines by Europeans.

• Cold War and political instability:• Latin America (Cuba, San Salvador, Nicaragua, etc.).• Asia (Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.).• Middle East (Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, etc.)

• New kind of refugee flow:• Large and of long (or permanent) duration.


Refugees and Internally Displaced Populations

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RefugeesInternally displacedInternal conflictsM

illion

s

Num

ber o

f con

flicts


Refugees

■ Current issues• Enduring internal conflicts creating a constant stream of refugees:

• E.g. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan in recent years.• Blurred distinction between political and economic refugees.• Refugees are a controversial issue:

• Especially in the developed world.• Only a small share of the asylum seekers are granted the refugee status.• Less than 20% for the European Union.• Increasingly, refugees are no longer accepted.• Economic refugees resorting to asylum as the only way to get a legal

status.


Essay: Global Migration

Global migration is a complex issue linked with differences in levels of economic development. What could be the trends shaping global migration in the coming decades?


C – HEALTH AND EPIDEMICS

The Spread of DiseasesMajor EpidemicsThe Threat of Pandemics


The Spread of Diseases

Endemic Epidemic PandemicMany diseases (Flu) exists in a state of equilibrium within a population.Do not need to spread from an outside source.Many develop an immunity.Saps energy, lowers resistance, shortens lives.

Sudden outbreak at local, regional scale.More cases than would normally be expected.Generally short lived (until all the potential population is infected).

Worldwide spread through trade routes.

Explain the differences between, endemic, epidemic and pandemic


Fatality Rates per Type of Disease

Seasonal Flu

Malaria

Swine Flu (H1N1)

Bubonic Plague

SARS

MRSA

AIDS (treated)

Bird Flu (H7N5)

Smallpox

Tubercolosis

Bird Flu (H5N1)

Ebola

AIDS (untreated)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


Major Epidemics

■ Black Death• Europe, 14th century (the Plague)• Bacteria (Yersinia pestis) originating in Asia.• Moved through the trade routes.• Entered Europe in 1347.• Transmission by rats, fleas and coughing / sneezing:

• Debate between bubonic (lymphatic system) and pneumonic (respiratory system) plagues.

• 90% death rate of those infected:• Death between 4 to 7 days.

• 20 million deaths; 25-33% of the European population.• May have killed 70% of the population of England.

• 75 million deaths in Eurasia out of a population of 300 million.


Estimated Population of Europe, 1000-1500

1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 15000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Milli

ons


Spread of the Bubonic Plague in Europe, 1347-1351


Major Epidemics

■ Smallpox• Virus commonly resulting in blisters; highly contagious.• Spread through respiratory system and physical contact.• Endemic in Eurasia:

• 400,000 people per year killed in Europe in the 18th century.• New World, 16th Century:

• Virus introduced by Spanish conquistadors and European colonists.• Between 10 and 20 million killed.• Decimation of the Inca, Aztec and Native American civilizations.

• Was officially eradicated in 1979 (Only infectious disease completely eradicated).


Major Epidemics

■ Influenza• Global, 1918-1919 (Spanish Flu).• A strain of H1N1; (H: Hemagglutinin, N: Neuraminidase).• Virus brought by troops; spread through transport routes.• Lethality:

• Transmission through respiratory channels.• Lethality by a cytokine storm.• 2-20% of those infected died (normal rate 0.1%).• Between 25 and 40 million killed (1.2-2.2 % of the global population).• WWI (1914-1918) killed 9 million people.

• Bird Flu (H5N1):• Limited human-to-human transmission potential.

• Swine Flu (H1N1; April 2009):• New strain contains genes coming from 5 different viruses.


Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality per 100,000 Persons per Age Group, United States, 1911–1918

<1 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 74-84 >=850

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1911-19171918


Major Epidemics

■ HIV/AIDS• Global (Pandemic), 1980 to present.• Originated in Africa.• Mutation of a primate virus to infect humans.• Transmission by body fluids.• 40 million deaths (2007).• 86 million infected (1.0-1.3% of the global population).• 2,700,000 new cases per year (2007).• Major prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa:

• More than 60% of HIV positive global population.• More than 20% of the population infected in several African countries.


Global Population with HIV and AIDS Related Deaths, 1990-2012

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20120

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Population with HIV AIDS-Related Deaths


AIDS Diagnoses and Deaths in the United States, 1981-2011

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Cases diagnosed during the year Deaths occurring during the year


The Threat of Pandemics

■ The potential of a new global pandemic?• Risk factors:

• Influenza impacts 5 to 15% of the global population each year (kills 250,000 to 500,000).

• New strains of influenza could affect 20% of the global population.• Some scenarios account for 1 billion deaths in less than 6 months.• Dominantly urbanized population (proximity).• Fast global transport systems (diffusion).

• SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Conovirus; 2003):• Infected more than 8,400 (874 died). • Declared eradicated in 2005.

• Ebola (2014-)• Endemic in Western Africa.


Some Factors behind the Global Spread of DiseasesFactorGlobal travel People as the vector (e.g. Flu, West Nile Virus, SARS). The

most common vector.Global trade Cargo as the vector (e.g. Mad Cow Disease).

Wars and conflicts Destruction / damaging of healthcare systems and public utilities (aqueduct / sewage). Displacement of populations (refugees).

Migration Migrants dominantly responsible to bring endemic diseases in developed countries (e.g. tuberculosis).

Poverty Overcrowding, malnutrition, lack of healthcare and unsanitary conditions.

Medical practices Pathogenic natural selection. More virulent and resistant diseases.

Read this content (sections 1 & 2)

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch2en/conc2en/global_net_migration.html


Essay: Global Pandemics

Using examples of past pandemics, explain the main factors that favor the global spread of diseases.

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Topic 5 – Migration and Health

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