Total Telecom

7/30/2019 Total Telecom

1/21

SPECTRUM SPATSThe attle fo scace spectu is intensifying as egulatosgea up fo auctions and opeatos eye up valuale assets

news in brief

5 TimelineA u-up m maj p u a v

.a.m

technology trends

8 IP multimedia

subsystem (IMS)iMs avuam m pamv lte a a p v vua a u v v. bu a a p a, a

a mp m appa.

network strAtegies

12 Operator LTEbusiness modelsspum av a mpa lteu m mpa, a m a a a aa a p upm au.

content strAtegies

16 Over-the-topcontent strategiesopa a a ma v--p a a a xpav a a u au, vp u m.

stAtistics

20 Prime numbersw m va Q2, mpa apx a px, a p

v qupm vu.

lEadER ConTEnTS

I KempEdito

Total Teleco+

BUSInESS analySIS foR TElECoMS PRofESSIonalS SEPTEmbEr 2011

spum a p aa ua-

a pa a vpv x a- m aa va a a -. A maa pum au; ma u p aa ua.

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p.5). A a a a a m p-um aa: ma am a aam 1020 a a a u

xp a a up a,

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u pum u,au vm a ap up apa. tm Uk ua om a Us appv u papumuu aav a v aa tVa v u a a-a a M2M mmua.

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There is simply notenough spectrumto go round

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a Uk au, u a 2012, u a u pa a a m p-a au a a a a a p aa/lte pum au( n sa p.12).

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aTTEndT

TElECoMWo

ThISnovEMBE


2/21

How do you meetthe increasingexpectations of

your customers?


3/21


4/21

2011 Verizon. All services are provided by Verizon in accordance with certain rates, terms, conditions, and restrictions set forthin Verizons tariffs or in applicable agreements between Verizon and the carrier.

verizon.com/wholesale/globalsolutionsVerizon Global Wholesale serves: Carriers - Wireless Providers - ISPs - Cable Operators - Resellers

Verizon Mobility Solutions has everything you need to satisfy your small

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the reliability of Verizon behind it, you can provide your customers with

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care of everything else.

You on the outside.

Us on the inside.


5/21

Septee 2011 www.tttee.cm 5

TIMElInE

p a, u a m

maxmum amu

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A oundup of the ajo stoiesin telecos in the past onth,as epoted in ou daily newssevice www.tttee.cm

Souce: Wieless Intelligence

Developing countries drive mobile growth

revenues fo oile opeatos woldwide will each US$1.1 tillion in 2012, withdeveloping akets the piay engine of gowth and contiuting ove 40% ofthe total, accoding to a new study y Wieless Intelligence. moile opeatos inthe brIC countiesbazil, russia, India and Chinaae set to exceed US$200illion in evenues, ovetaking the US in tes of aket size y 2012. Gloalopeato evenues eached US$1.057 tillion in 2010.

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6/21

Virgin wins MBNL contractV Ma bu a

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ta pa u

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aa Ju 2018.

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TIMElInE

JoBS STEPS doWnSteve Jos in August an-nounced that he would stepdown fo his ole as CEOof Apple and will e eplacedby chief operating ofcer TimCook. In a lette to the oad,Jos aditted that he can

no longer full the duties andexpectations equied of theCEO ole, ut he will continueto seve the copany aschaian of the oad.Apple co-founde Jos wasdiagnosed with panceaticcance soe eight yeas agoand in 2009 undewent a livetansplant duing a lengthyleave of asence fo wok,duing which tie Cookfullled his duties. In AugustApple ecae the woldslagest copany y aketcapitalisation. The pevious

onth it epoted ecodnancial results, with revenuesfo its 2011 thid quateinceasing 82% yea-on-yeato US$28.57 billion and protup 125% to US$7.31 illion.Apple sold 20.34 illioniPhones in the quate. Josco-founded Apple with SteveWozniak in 1976, ut wasousted from the rm follow-ing a oad powe stugglein 1984. His etun in 1997popted Apples evival anda seies of gound-eakingpoducts: imac (1999), iPod(2001) and iPhone (2007).I elieve Apples ightestand ost innovative days aeahead of it. And I look fowadto watching and contiutingto its success in a new ole,Jos said in his esignationlette. Cook, in his ole asCOO, has een esponsilefo Apples woldwide salesand opeations, including sup-ply chain, sales, sevice andsuppot anageent. He alsoheaded up the copanysmacintosh coputes division.

New Zealand CEO to leavetm n Zaa ceo, Pau

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6 www.tttee.cm July/August 2011


7/21

for revenue with your customers demand for new services isnt easy.

Fortunately, Telcordia has been solving the worlds toughest communications challenges for nearly

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8/21

8 www.tttee.cm Septee 2011

TEChnology TREndS

IMS is nding favour among mobile operators moving to LTE that want to protect voiceevenues, ut thee ae technical and pocess challenges ahead. B R Rubestei

MUlTITASKINGI P M U LT I M E D I A S U B S Y S T E M S

Au v uu pm l tmevu (lte) -

a pa iP Mumasum (iMs) a . iMs a v a mu-ma p v lte uV v lte (Vlte), p mpa a mp vu-a v.

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mma: mpm iMs aVlte, mmua pv

v u v m lte aa u a aa iMspm. M pa apiMs-a Vlte ua u v ma qua u- v, a

a m v--p pv a ava ,a da wa, -

a gsM Aa (gsMA).t a a m a a u -pa- a am, a a a, m u sp, g, V a fa vp . t ipa mv qu au

av au aa u- ma pa, a. A a u a pa m pa a Vlte pa.

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u vp a v avau a . i a, pa- a auu .

t a pm a a iMsqu a a , a dm Mava, aa, , a ima tm& Ma. i vv pa v a a v-u. opa a a paauu a a aa vu v iMs pm- a .

A pa app ma m m v u a

a ma a v p,i-a v am a v u v -v v .

sm m pa u a Japantt dcM a ka sk tm( x p.10) av ua vpa muma v u iMs,

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wa iMs a m x-a ViP pam, a daM, aa, ViP a iMs,a i ra. i pa a au v av ap iMs v pu.

fa tm a u iMs va pa p-pa v, p- mpv pa ,a a va m ViPu. fa tm a mm v- a u a av mvm aa p u v, a M.

o pa a mv ViPu iMs av pa-a av a pa ca

5 Pstn . ca pau ca tm av maa , a M, a c vm u u p qum. ca 5 a a, m x aum a p. yu av avm a p p-; a u aa, a.

y pa av p a a x-a (ngn) au, a

a ap iMs, v ViP.t a pa piMs ma , u u p ViP, p ngn, a p iMs

u muma v-, a A ka, pu ma &u vpm, su n.

c t sv x- pa a a ap su pam ViP, u apa m iMs. wa

iMs

a iMs, a na

Worldwide IMS equipment revenues

2008

$176 mii

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Souce: Infonetics reseach

$1.6 bii


9/21


TEChnology TREndS

fa, c a aau . iMs pmpa a u- aqu m u a mu v (hss) u au-a, u c a u iMsm a ViP av p um.

t pam x,

u av p a mp- a ma up a iMs auu [a] a a aa v siP a a av u au u ViP v-, a fa.

bu a pa ma, u- iMs -m u a pa pa Pstn . fm a [pa-] a, pa aiMs , m a pa- a maa ppv, a

maa Pstn, a ca s,a u ma, , ua mmua, a Aa-lu.

V a iMs a mp a a mau. wa amup pam a mup m-

a, av a , a e e, , iMsu ma a Aa-lu.w a pu m u a a. t u a 95%u p ump a

pa mpa u-

u, a.bu Ma cv, a v a iP

ama a na smn, a mva iMspm v: i v v v, u a ju ViP u mpm .

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A1 tm Aua au u

v v 2010, a v ma x u v a iMsa u um a au p. bu a fazf, v a A1,mpm v a a mpa x paupp m pv a. n vv iMs x u ava v a a m.

ta ma v mpa mpm a p v,

v um a

a a va m a, a f. A a a.

bu x iMsa uu, iMs vpm ap Vlte, u a pp

v iMs v v a mu-ma lte. M

iMs, a Mava.A m pa a a a iMs v.

A i ra,a iMs qupm mauauvu a up 87% quampa am qua a a.Aa Pa au 68% a iMsqupm p qua, v pma av ca, Japa a su ka. ta mpa a m iMs-ap a u

ma a a, paua n Ama apa a lte pm appa Vlte v 2012.

i a uv u alte ma v a a(48%) 23 pa qu aa mpm av p iMs.t a jump m a a a; lte a pma v, a M. i apaa lte uv, a mpau a pa pa p

Vlte a aa a

Legacy equipmentobsolescence

Ability to offerconverged services

LTE networkdeployment

Souce: Infonetics reseach

% of service providers ratingdefnitely a driver

Top drivers for moving to IMS (left); leading carrier VoIP and IMS vendors by revenues, Q2 2011 (right)

0% 20% 40% 60%

Other

Genband

Huawei

Alcatel-Lucent

AcmePacket

NokiaSiemens

Combined worldwide trunk media gateway, softswitch,

SBC, media server, VAS and CSCF server market share


10/21


a a. o a a a u- a-a, a M

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bu pa a a aa mv mpm iMs m.

t a u pa- iMs-a

mmua v.t a appa apVlte. A m pa pa av u lte va u a au a ma u Vlte u a v a u-a v . t a Us pa, Vz wa MPcs, xamp.

o pa p v a av a a u mv m alte a 3g 2g . t -a u, a a x

m pa, v, 3gPP a gsMA, a wa.

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v a a m iP a u- . t qu a avm iMs ma m v, a wa.

o u pa a va- paa v a a av, a

mv m lte a 3g hsPA

. su a au a upp iPa, a av u- auu u a.

A1 u u. w mpa mpm Vlte, afu. A u mpm Vlte, [ a av] a aa u gsM p a a lte a hsPA?

sk tm u au

pa ap Vlte. bu w-yc, maa vpm am a sk tm,v mpma u aa. t Vlte mpm-a u a u mpaa u x iMs auua , a.

Mau fuuam, v p,pu aa & iMs a e, a u x u- a pa- a, u a

a a pm a pj pa.

cv a nsn a a pa a mv iMs. i m-v mu-px a pa a m m ua a; iP u a 100 m a. tiMs au upa a, a: i au a m .

wa m pa,

a fuuam, p

m mpa u: v a sMsv a pa p 75% vu. opa mu app

ava v a a mmuaappa a a a, a fuuam: ta m- m a a, a .

A mpa mp au iMs a pa paa Vlte a a v r cmmua su (rcs-), v eupa paa pm gsMA. rcs- a u a ma, v a , ma

u a a .du tm, oa, tmiaa, ta a Va aua M w c a

a pa au rcs- v a a 2012.

t a av pp rcsapp a u a, a m aa mpx v, a wa a gsMA. i,

au a amz rcs- a v rcs a

ua qu u a u p. bu rcs/rcs-a v u a paua am a a va a sMs, a p-a mmu vp auVlte a rcs, a wa. A

, i pa uvp .

sk tm a p map appa a mp iMs-a v- pv m a. t

a iMs, a c, a a m pa uuu m ap v-pm a rcs.

bu c mp a u a pa. t iMs a a au vpm aav m v mp, a.t u--vm ap iMs a vpma aa v a p-

p a ju .n

IMS pioneer: how SK Telecom has blazed a trail

South Koean opeato SK Teleco has een poviding ImS-ased ultiedia sevicessince 2005. Having stated with a video call sevice, the opeato has launched a steady

stream of IMS services including mobile messaging, xed Internet telephony, a convergedxed-mobile service, high-denition video calling and a social networking talk service.SK Telecom has also joined with Korean mobile carriers KT and LG U+ to enable

suscies to use the oile essenge sevice acoss netwoks. The opeato claissuch inteconnection of ImS sevices etween opeatos eains the only exaple to date.It has esulted in the oile essenge sevice eing used y 14 illion suscies.

One of the stengths of ImS is that it allows fo expeientation and custoisation, saysWoo-Yong Choi, senio anage of the coe netwok developent tea at SK Teleco.Fo exaple, the opeato conducted a study and found that soe uses felt uncofotaleeing seen on a video call. With SK Telecos rCS-ased HD video calling sevice, a usestats a cicuit-switched voice call and can choose fo a list of ultiedia featues such aseal-tie video, photos, a sketch ook and location infoation. The use can also choosewhethe to just eceive video o use two-way video shaing.

For 3G circuit-switched video calls, voice and video trafc are transmitted at 64 kilobits-pe-second (Kps). SK Telecos HD video calls use the 3G packet netwok and WiFi totansit at 100-200 Kps, esulting in a foufold ipoveent in video esolution.

TEChnology TREndS


11/21

World Communication Awards 2011...

...The Shortlist

Organised by:Sponsors:

2011

World Communication Awards

For global communications providers

7 November 2011

The London Hilton on Park Lane

Best Brand Campaign

Idea Cellular

Mobile TeleSystems

Orange Business Services

Orascom Telecom Bangladesh (Banglalink)

TELUS

Best Cloud Service

Content Guru

fonYou Telecom

iPass


Telstra Enterprise & Government

Virtela

Best Content Service

Hutchison Telecom Hong Kong

Maxis

Orange

SingTel

TE Data

Turkcell

Best Customer Care

Bharti Airtel Limited


Tata Communications

UPC Austria

Best Global Operator

BT Global Services


Verizon Business

Virtela

Best Mobile Operator

Bharti Airtel

France Telecom-Orange

Verizon Wireless

Best New Service: Consumer

Banglalink

Orange

Roshan

Turkcell

Best New Service: Enterprise

Orange

SingTel

Virtela

Vodafone

Best Operator in a Developing Market

Axis

CVT Group

Orange

Viettel

Best Wholesale Carrier

Colt Group

Interoute

Orange

Tata Communications TeliaSonera International Carrier

Project of the Year

BT Group

Maxis


Turkcell

Zain Jordan

Team of the Year

CITIC Telecom International CPC


UPC Austria - Churn Busters

UPC Austria - UPC Gold Cup

The Alireza Mahmoodshahi TechnologyForesight Award

Movirtu

PCCW Global

Smart Communications

The Green Award

Colt Group

Grameenphone


Smart Communications

The New Shores Award

BT Global Services

China Telecom (Europe)


The Social Contribution Award

Etisalat

Roshan

Turkcell

Viettel

CEO of the Year Gkhan Bozkurt: Trk Telecom

Ibrahim Al-Omar: VIVA Bahrain

Karim Khoja: Telecom Development CompanyAfghanistan Ltd.

Mehboob Chowdhury: Pacic BangladeshTelecom

Mohammad Omran: Etisalat

Rakesh Bhasin: Colt Technology Services

Randall Stephenson: AT&T

Stphane Richard: France Telecom-Orange

Sunil Bharti Mittal: Bharti Airtel Group

Zeinal Bava: Portugal Telecom

To book your table visitwww.worldcommsawards.com

or email [email protected]


12/21

MIXEd SIGNALS

spum -p m aav upp, ua- pa a u lte

a j paaa pa ava .

naa ua au (nrA)a a : A a pumu a aav mpa aa pma u a um; a

u a a v, uaaa a pa uv lte aa v.

t up a m pa a a a nrA v aa puma u mpa lte u- m, a a v a pa qu a x-v v u mpm.

t pm a uaa av a mpa

pa m u m,a aa a a u-a um p, a t nma, a a aa aAa Ma.

i eup, pum m -aa vup 800-Mhz qu a vaa aa m aau

a v paua vau pa a ua. t 800-Mhza a m pa(Mno) v uua a uaaa m -v a qu av aa. A nrA a vmam x a aav a pa -a pum a a u( x p.13) a v ma

a a mu m ava.t eupa cmm a

vau v a a aa 2012 au.A aa mpa wi, 11 u eU27 av aa aauaa v a 10 pa 2011-12 ( a p.14). bu au x u 2013-15a m ec a.

A a u 800-Mhz pum

a a pv v-a a qu a. 800Mhz a a pa lteu , a wa g,cto a A1 tm Aua.

bu a 800-Mhz pum av a. nrA eup, u aa, paa amp a 60 Mhz (2x30

Mhz) a v pum. i ama amu mpa 190Mhz pa avaa 2.6-ghza a u lte v.

g a uu 2x10 Mhz a mmum qum u lte v. i , nrA

av a a m a 2x30 Mhz a aa ma pa qu aa maa v aa m

aa mp.i a, w i a

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a ec a a nrA eupa U up pum 4g lte a.

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cua de pu a

ma p spm 2010 p vau 800-Mhz a900-Mhz pum ia. ou u, mm ia ua cm, a a a a -m 800-Mhz a900-Mhz pum. Ma Ukua om 800 Mhz a900 Mhz a a quva. t m pa a 900-Mhz pum a ma

app amu a v

Spectrum allocation will have a big impact on mobile operators LTE business models,and soe elieve they ae not getting a fai cack at the whip. B Ke Wie

LT E B U S I N E S S M O D E L S

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

aric 9,030 128,220 689,210 2,073,505 4,369,461

americs 28,841 141,560 1,107,458 4,482,432 11,834,565

Asia Pacific 5,561 1,425,225 9,646,840 30,770,659 69,960,638 131,936,330

Eurpe: Ester 4,907 330,728 1,341,630 3,101,296 7,491,129 16,244,241

Eurpe: Wester 2,000 58,225 715,806 4,254,921 19,297,314 41,515,154 70,436,094

Mie Est 77,299 684,183 3,841,603 8,798,932 15,589,270

US/C 126,163 2,329,400 7,336,464 17,747,562 34,114,630 54,203,339

Wr 2,000 194,856 4,916,329 23,533,818 76,555,102 168,436,420 304,613,300

LTE connections forecast by region

Souce: Wieless Intelligence

When regulators start to tinker they have animpact on operators economic business models

12

nETWoRK STRaTEgIES

www.tttee.cm Septee 2011


13/21

Headline


nETWoRK STRaTEgIES

Economic balance: regulators impose obligations on LTE coverage a lte v qu, au.t av ma u

Uk. n ba, a ua aaa o2 Uk, au a om u- au u 900-Mhzpum v lte va a ua ppa au x a. om a- 800 Mhz a 900 Mhz am, a qu av a mmumamu u-1ghz pum pv-qua aa v.

A om, a VaUk aa p-qua a av upum pv a -p lte v, a ba. ta

ma uaa a 800-Mhzpum, a 3Uk a evev u pav a pum u om.

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a mu m.om a a u av 2x15Mhz 900-Mhz [pum] u a au a -p lte v, aba. t a a a aaum a lte 900 Mhz aa 10-Mhz a au a 900-Mhz pa aav m a a. t am upp a -p va 900 Mhz u 2x15 Mhz a

. w a ua oma p up a mpa a.

b a, lte 800 Mhz aa- a a2x15 Mhz a2x20 Mhz a pa 2x10 Mhz. Mv, o2 maaa 900 Mhz upp 2ga 3g um.

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jum uu u

a. lte pv pa ppu xpm avav p m, a

m a vvu m pmum v.hv, m pa av ap ppu, a n Mcm,ovum aa, a pLTETariff Comparison: Europe, Asia-Pacific and

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Regulators and governments increasingly are imposing LTE coverage obligations to preventnational digital divides eeging. Winnes of spectu in the 800-mHz spectu auctions

in Germany, for example, must roll out services in rural areas rst and aim for nationwidecoveage y 2013; and when Austia allocated 2.6-GHz spectu in Septee 2010 theegulato uled opeatos should povide 25% of the population with oile oadandcoveage y the end of 2013. many othe counties ae planning to set out siila oligations,paticulaly in the lowe fequency ands (800 mHz and 900 mHz) which ae oe suited towide coveage: Wieless Intelligence says Denak, Fance and the Czech repulic havealeady expessed thei intentions to set coveage tagets fo ual and eote aeas.

In the UK the Counications Consue Panelan independent goup foed topovide advice to the egulatoin July called on Ofco to enfoce coveage oligationson operators taking part in next years LTE spectrum auction. The forthcoming auctionpesents an oppotunity to addess the fact that GSm coveage has lagely stood stillsince the aival of 3G, it said in esponse to Ofcos consultation on the auction. mostcoverage not-spots ten years ago are still not-spots today. For the rst time in over 25 yearssignicant spectrum is about to be released that is lower frequency than any that is currentlydeployed800 mHz is a good solution fo ual coveage and pesents the oppotunitytocoect the advese coveage position.

Spectu caps ae also favoued y NrAs as a way to poote copetition. UK egulatoOfcom favours spectrum oors for the auction of 800-MHz, 1800-MHz and 2.6-GHzspectu next yea. by setting iniu aounts of spectu fo iddes as well asiposing spectu capsand taking into account mNOs existing spectuOfco saysit is aiing fo at least fou cedile national povides capale of deliveing high-qualitydata sevices in the UK. One question egulatos have to gapple with is whethe o not itis socio-econoically effective to hole opeatos y focing the to oll out netwoks intoual aeas, says Noan at Analysys. It ight e that the cost of ual ollout is passed onto the custoe, which would have a negative socio-econoic effect. Anothe unknown ishow uch of a positive socio-econoic effect thee is fo ual oadand connectivity.


14/21


nETWoRK STRaTEgIES

Price per megahertz per pop (US$), selected auctions

Geany 800 mHz (may 2010)

Sweden 800 mHz (ma 2011)

Hong Kong 2.6 GHz (Jan 2009)

Sweden 2.6 GHz (may 2008)

Denak 2.6 GHz (may 2010)

Noway 2.6 GHz (Nov 2007)

Austia 2.6 GHz (Sep 2010)

Geany 2.6 GHz (may 2010)

Estonia 2.6 GHz (Dec 2010)

Finland 2.6 GHz (Nov 2009)

Nethelands 2.6 GHz (Ap 2010)

Souce: Econoist Intelligence Unit

900-Mhz a 1800-Mhz pum, a av a a Mno vau800-Mhz a 2.6-ghz pum. ifa a na 2.6-ghzp xm , u a a pa a am um a ava-a 1800 Mhz lte [ fa]a pum ap [ na] a au, a ia M, a em i U.

bu p a a aa ma x upp. i h k850-Mhz a 900-Mhz pumau a a p p

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a v pum p up,v ua mp mu .

i ia cm au 28 pum, a -

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m a pum.i de ma u

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s v p u aau am cm pa,

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a. ia u a . n

If rapid growth in mobile data trafc continuesit may well start to drive spectrum prices up

diit diit Spectrum IMT extesiswitcer iie re-rmi

deie aucti frequec (Mhz) Timerme aucti

Austia Q3 2011 Q1 2012 900 Q4 2010 Q3 2010

belgiu Q1 2010 - 1800 Q2 2011 -

bulgaia Q1 2015 - 900/1800 Q4 2010 2012Cypus 2011 2012-13 900/1800 - -

Czech repulic Q4 2011 Q2 2010 900/1800 2012-13 2012-13

Denak Q4 2009 2012 900/1800 Q2 2011 Q2 2010

Estonia Q3 2010 - 900 Q1 2014 Q4 2010

Geany Q4 2008 Q2 2010 900 Q4 2009 Q2 2010

Geece 2013 - 900/1800 2013-14 -

Finland Q3 2007 Q3 2011 1800 Q4 2009 -

Fance Q3 2011 Q1 2012 900 2010 Q4 2011

Hungay Q4 2014 - - - -

Ieland Q4 2012 2012-13 900/1800 Q3 2011 -

Italy Q4 2011 2012-13 900 2013 -

Latvia Q2 2010 - 900/1800 Q4 2009 2013

Lithuania Q4 2012 - 900/1800 - -

Luxembourg Q2 2006 - 900 2011 -

malta Q2 2011 - 900/1800 2011 -

Nethelands 2012 2012-13 900/1800 Q3 2010 Q2 2010

Poland Q3 2013 - 900/1800 Q3 2010 -

Potugal Q2 2012 - 900/1800 Q1 2010 -

roania 2013 - 900/1800 Q1 2010 -

Spain 2014 Q3 2011 900/1800 Q4 2011 Q4 2011

Slovakia Q4 2010 - 900/1800 2010 2011

Slovenia Q4 2010 - 900 Q2 2010 -

Sweden Q4 2007 2011 900/1800 - Q2 2008

United Kingdo Q2 2012 2012 900/1800 Q1 2010 2013

EU27 implementation deadlines and auction timetable

Souce: Wieless Intelligence (June 2011)

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0


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Opeatos ae stating to eace ove-the-top content as a way to expand sevicesand each out to new audiences, developing new usiness odels. B Iri lue

ToP SLICINGO V E R - T H E - T O P C O N T E N T

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t pa avaa v,u u a a oa um

u a m v

Netflix subscribers in thousands (left) and BBC iPlayer monthly requests in millions (right)

Souce: Arthur D Little / Exane BNP Paribas estimates

16

ConTEnT STRaTEgIES

www.tttee.cm Septee 2011

Telcos now view over-the-top content asan added feature to the service offering

SubscribersNet additions nOnline, radionOnline, TVnVirgin Media TV

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17/21

ConTEnT STRaTEgIES

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i Us, cma a x

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Official SpectrumManager

Peak Internet downstream trafc

Netflix30%

Other15%

YouTube11%

BitTorrent10% HTTP

18%

Flashvideo 5%

Hulu 1%

Facebook2%

SSL 2%

RTMP 3%

Souce: Sandvine

European Pay-TV penetration, primary and secondary services, by platform

Souce: Analysys mason

Penetationofhouseholds(%)

Piay 2011 Piay 2016 Seconday 2011 Seconday 2016

100%

90%80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

n Analogue cale n Digital cale n IPTVn Pay DTTn Satellite n Ove-the-top sevicesTop applications by downstream bytes share,

North America, fixed access, peak period, March 2011

iTunes 3%


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Total IPTV and OTT bandwidth demand Set-top box (STB) unit shipment share

Souce: ImS reseach (July 2011) Souce: Infonetics reseach

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19/21


By the numbers: the value and impact of over-the-top content

ConTEnT STRaTEgIES

IMS Research forecasts that paid-for OTT subscription services will generate a cumulativeUS$32 billion in revenues worldwide over the next ve years, and will account for the majority

of evenues when copaed to pay-pe-view video sevices. OTT sevice evenues willeach US$16.4 illion in 2016, it estiates in its new epot Over-the-Top VideoServiceDelivery & Business Models (2011). Households viewing just fee videos accounted fo 77%shae of the total OTT aket at the end of 2010, ut that will decline to 69% y the endof 2016. Intenet-ased OTT sevice povidesoadcastes offeing content online, DVDental copanies that have expanded into steaing sevices, and etailes that offe onlinevideowill continue to geneate the lagest popotion of OTT sevice evenues, althoughthei shae is foecast to decline fo 90% of woldwide OTT video evenues in 2010 to 69%in 2016. ImS says the Noth Aeican VOD aket geneated $1.98 illion in evenues in2010, while the Euopean VOD aket totalled $1.11 illion. The two egions coinedcopise 46.1 illion pay-TV suscie hoes that ae using VOD sevices.

Another new report, from Analysys Mason, says while OTT services will not displacetaditional pay-TV sevicescale, IPTV, pay-DTT o satelliteas the ain povide of videosevices to piay TV sets in Euope, thee will e uch stonge gowth fo OTT sevicesas a copleentay, o seconday sevice, ostly on additional TV sets. It foecasts 14.6

illion households in Euope will e using ove-the-top sevices as a seconday TV sevicey 2016. The epot, Pay TV in Europe: forecasts and analysis 20112016, says only 2.58illion households will e using an OTT sevice as a piay sevice fo thei ain TV set inEuope in 2016, epesenting 1.4% of the 185.2 illion pay-TV households.

Today, downstream trafc from Netix accounts for some 30% of all peak Internet trafcin the US, according to network trafc solutions company Sandvine (see pie chart p.17). Thismonth Netix is expanding into 43 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and plansto launch in Euope stating in Spain next yea. The copany now clais ove 24 illionsuscies in the US aking it the iggest pay-TV/video copany supassing Cocast.

SNL Kagan analysts have estimated how much over-the-top substitution will erodeultichannel susciptions in the US, with 4.5 illion households pedicted to opt foIntenet video instead of susciing to a ultichannel video package y the end of 2011.

Strategy Analytics forecasts worldwide connnected TV device revenues will reach US$95illion y 2015. It says connected TVs and othe Intenet-eady devicessuch as set-topoxes and DVrswill each 2 illion units woldwide this yea. And In-Stat says woldwidesteaing edia playealso known as OTT set-top oxesunit shipents in 2011 willeach just ove 3.6 illion.

Analysts at Gartner forecast that consumers worldwide will spend $2.1 trillion on alldigital content, devices and sevices this yea, ising to $2.8 tillion y 2015. OTT contentwill account fo 10%, o $200 illion, of that $2.1 tillion total: Puchased, ented, steaedo downloaded video content, as well as pay-pe-view and video-on-deand (VoD), andlicensing fees fo pay-TV sevices account fo $100 illion; while PC and gaing softwae,digital usic, digital ooks and oile apps ake up the othe $100 illion. Gatne saysthat soe 62%, o $1.2 tillion, will e spent y consues on susciption-ased sevices,which include xed voice, mobile voice and data, broadband and pay-TV subscriptions. Theeaining categoy, devices, accounts fo 28% of consue spend, o $600 illion.

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vu Us$16.4 2016.n


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60 millionmedia tablets to beshipped this year, upfrom 17.4 million in 2010.(IHS iSuppli)

EnTERPRISE voICE EQUIPMEnT REvEnUESdEClInIng gloBally aS PoRTS RISETeleGeography says new data from partner Synergy

Research Group shows that enterprise voice equipment

vendor revenues declined 4% globally between Q2 2010 andQ2 2011, despite a 14% increase in por t shipments.

Revenues for the first half of this year declined 1% compared

to the same period in 2010. Asia-Pacific was the only region

that saw year-on-year growth in Q2, with enterprise voice

revenues increasing 3%, while revenues in EMEA fell 9%.

PBX/KTS (key telephone system) revenues experienced the

greatest decline year-on-year, falling 9% from Q2 2010, while

the voice gateway and IP telephony segments showed

modest declines. In a separate report, Infonetics Research

says revenues from global PBX/KTS phone systems alone

declined 2.3% sequentially in 2Q11 to $2.02 billion, but rose

3.9% compared to the same quarter in 2010, continuing its

path of slow and steady recovery on a year-over-year basis.

CaPEX REdUCTIonSA p m wi a mpa u apaxpu u

m u p a amaa p. t ua pa apx ma a a 16% avu vp maa 23% vpma 2011-12, u a a a m apxpa a Us$204 2008, au 21% a pa vu, a Us$197 (19% vu) 2010. i v-

p m ma,pa u apx 8% 2008 a 6% 2009u a p a aa a v lte. b 2007 a 2008,pa xpu a apa vu m 65% 61%. Aa u, ebitdA jumpm 35% 39% avu. opx a 62% v pa a ebitdA

a a 38% vu.

SMaRTPhonE SalES STIll RoCKETIngWorldwide sales of mobile devices to end users totalled 428.7

million units in the second quarter, a 16.5% increase from the

second quarter of 2010, says Gartner. Sales of smartphones

were up 74% year-on-year and accounted for 25% of device

sales, up from 17% in the second quarter of 2010. Nokia

continued to lose market share but held onto its lead in the

smartphone market, largely due to channel partners reducingthe volume of Symbian-based smartphones in their invento-

ries. The combined smartphone operating system share of

iOS and Android doubled to nearly 62%, up from just over

31% in the second quarter of 2010. In a separate report

Gartner forecasts there will be 5.6 billion mobile connections

worldwide by the end of this year, up from 5 billion in 2010.

WIMaX hITS 20 MIllIoni ra awMAX u pa 20m a qua a a a x 25 m a. ta mpa Us, ia u- ala Ama. sa wMAX qupm -

a $502.1 m qua, a wMAX fum.

1 billionsmartphones shippedannually by 2016, up from302 million in 2010.(Juniper Research)

ver 2Q11 2Q11 mrket 2Q10 2Q10 mrket

sre (%) sre (%)

nki 97,869.3 22.8 111,473.7 30.3

Smsu 69,827.6 16.3 65,328.2 17.8

lg 24,420.8 5.7 29,366.7 8.0

appe 19,628,8 4.6 8,743.0 2.4

ZTE 13,070.2 3.0 6,730.6 1.8Reserc I Mti 12,652.3 3.0 11,628.8 3.2

hTC 11,016.1 2.6 5,908.8 1.6

Mtr 10,221.4 2.4 9,109.4 2.5

huwei deice 9,026.1 2.1 5,276.4 1.4

S Ericss 7,266.5 1.7 11,008.5 3.0

oters 153,662.1 35.8 103,412.6 28.1

gb Tt 428,661.2 100 367,986.7 100

MoBIlE dEvICE SalES (ThoUSandS of UnITS)

Souce: TeleGeogaphy

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

n revenue Pot shipents

EnTERPRISE voICE REvEnUES & PoRT ShIPMEnTS

revenues(US$billions)

Potshipents(illions)


21/21

3 6 October 2011, Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai, UAE

Register before 15 JulyAnd save US$1000

The Middle East's largest gatheringof telecom CEOs

Communicate

Hearrom over 100 operators, ministers and content providers on their strategies or revenue growth and uture investment

Discoverwhat regional CEOs are investing in, what this means or network capacity, and how you can sustain proftability in this

competitive market

Learnwhere the investment opportunities lie in emerging markets and services and how you can capitalise on theseMeetover 70 Middle Eastern operators and turn their insights into your next business opportunities

Five shows - one event

Osman Sultan

CEO

du

H.E. Amir Zain

Sangin

Minister

ICT MinistryAfghanistan

Scott

Gegenheimer

CEO

WataniyaTelecom

H.E. Eng.Mohammed

Tawfeq AllawiMinister

Ministry ofCommunications

Hatem Dowidar

CEO

Vodafone Egypt

Kassim Hassani

Director General

ITPC Iraq

Emad Makiya

CEO

Zain Iraq

Akil Hamed

Beshir

Chairman

Telecom Egypt

H.E. Mohamed

Nasser Al

Ghanim

Director General

TRA, UAE

Dr. Abdul Malek

Jaber

COO

Zain Group

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