© OECD/IEA 2017
Towards an Action Plan for TCP
Enhancement
Dave Turk, Acting Director of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks
TCP Universal Meeting, 9 October 2017
IEA
© OECD/IEA 2017
As technology costs drop, markets soar…
Source: Adapted from DOE, “Revolution…Now: The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update,”
http://www.energy.gov/eere/downloads/revolution-now-future-arrives-five-clean-energy-technologies-2015-update
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Land-Based Wind
Distributed PV
Utility-Scale PV
Modeled Battery Costs
LEDs
Cost Reductions Market Growth
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
+100k%
+10k%
+1k%
+100%
© OECD/IEA 2017
0
10
20
30
40
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtC
O2
Efficiency 40%
Renewables 35%
Fuel switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
How far can technology help take us?
Efficiency 40%
Renewables35%Fuel switching5%Nuclear 6%
CCS 14%
Efficiency 34%
Renewables 15%
Fuel switching 18%
Nuclear 1%
CCS 32%
Global CO2 reductions by technology area
2 degrees Scenario – 2DS
Reference Technology Scenario – RTS
Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS
0 200 400
Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
© OECD/IEA 2017
How are we doing?
Tracking Clean Energy Progress (TCEP) highlights the overall status and recent progress of
clean-energy technologies as well as providing insights to achieve their full potential
Electric vehicles
Solar PV and onshore wind Renewable power overall
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels
Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,
coming mostly from governments.
In real terms, public RD&D spending in IEA countries has bounced back
since a low in 2000, with growth mostly in clean energy technologies.
Global clean energy RD&D spending has rebounded since 2000…
0
5
10
15
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
USD
(2
01
6)
bill
ion
Other
Nuclear/basic energy reearch
Hydrogen/storage
Renewables
CCS
Efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,
coming mostly from governments.
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,
coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2015
USD
(2
01
6)
bill
ion
Private Public Top 3 firms
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2015
USD
(2
01
6)
bill
ion
Private Public Top 3 firms
… however, a strong boost is needed going forward
Global clean energy RD&D spending
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2021
USD
(2
01
6)
bill
ion
Private Public Top 3 firms
Mission Innovation
Mission Innovation
Top 3 IT company R&D spenders
© OECD/IEA 2017
TCP expertise and global network
TCP / IEA inter-relations:
• 34 TCPs input into IEA analysis / modelling
• 30 TCPs at IEA events / workshops
• 23 TCPs in third-party events with the IEA
6,000 experts
2,000 topics
300 public or private organisations
52 countries
38 Technology Collaboration Programmes
4 intergovernmental organisations
38 TCPs, five groups:
• Cross-cutting activities (2)
• End use and energy efficiency (14)
• Fossil fuels (5)
• Fusion power (8)
• Renewable energy and hydrogen (9)
© OECD/IEA 2017
Since 2015 – progress, but much more to do…
First-Ever Universal TCP meeting (2015)
• 40th anniversary rebranded Technology Collaboration Programmes
• Mandates from IEA Ministerial – IEA as global clean energy hub; association
• Raise visibility of TCPs – “Highlights and Outcomes” publication, website
revamped; various events (COP21, Bali Clean Energy Forum, Mission
Innovation workshops, CEM); TCP-wide survey (90% response rate); desk
officer engagement
2nd TCP Universal Meeting (2017)
• New IEA Medium-Term Strategy for Research and Technology 2018-2022
• Preparing for 2017 IEA Ministerial meeting (7-8 November)
• New Action Plan for TCP Enhancement
Four sections – all geared towards specific, actionable recommendations
All of us need to do our parts for all of us to be successful…
© OECD/IEA 2017
1. Enhanced TCP-IEA Collaboration
TCPs feed into, complement, and benefit from IEA analysis, including Energy Technology Perspectives, Tracking Clean Energy Progress, World Energy Outlook, roadmaps and market reports.
Actions:
1.1 – Enhance IEA Secretariat’s capabilities to enhance TCPs
1.2 – Modernize / enhance TCP data to be able to better map and characterise TCP efforts
1.3 – Maximise number of IEA work streams that utilise TCP expertise
1.4 – Achieve better alignment between TCP activities and IEA analysis
1.5 – Carry out strategic review of CERT / Working Parties to identify improvements
© OECD/IEA 2017
While entities from IEA members presently represent 80% of TCP participants, there is strong interest to also engage emerging economies; the private sector can also provide important contributions.
Actions:
2.1 – Enhance IEA’s capabilities to support TCP outreach efforts
2.2 – Assist with identifying appropriate “points of contact” in partner countries
2.3 – Further involve TCPs in IEA regional events in/with partner countries
2.4 – Closer TCP collaboration with IEA industry stakeholder groups
2.5 – Help with identifying opportunities for joint activities with industry and others
2. Engagement with governments and the private sector
© OECD/IEA 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Nu
mb
er
of
TCP
s Government participation in TCPs
Top 3 IEA member countries: United States, Japan and Korea Top 3 Partner countries: China, Mexico and Russia
© OECD/IEA 2017
TCP interest in engaging further with IEA family of countries
Top TCP participation: OES TCP, PVPS TCP, SOLARPACES TCP
© OECD/IEA 2017
3. Interactions with multi-lateral initiatives
TCPs are already co-operating with over 70 distinct multilateral entities worldwide, notably under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) and Mission Innovation (MI).
Actions:
3.1 – Enhance IEA’s capabilities to support TCP interlinkages with other initiatives
3.2 – Organise and facilitate joint events, notably with CEM and MI
3.3 – Leverage IEA’s network to increase awareness and develop additional capacities
3.4 – Strategic analysis and global mapping to identify additional TCP opportunities
3.5 – Enhance TCP coordination of cross-cutting initiatives
© OECD/IEA 2017
Mapping participation in IEA, CEM, MI and TCPs
IEA Partner Countries
IEA Member Countries
Missio
n In
no
va
tion
Cle
an
En
erg
y
Min
iste
ria
l
21+ 11-20
6-10 1-5
LEGEND: TCP participation
© OECD/IEA 2017
4. Awareness, communication, visibility
The IEA and individual TCPs each carry out communication activities with both expert and
non-expert audiences. A new Communication Framework expanded the range of
opportunities.
Actions:
4.1 – Increase TCP visibility on IEA website
4.2 – Regular visibility of TCPs in monthly IEA newsletter and distribute to whole TCP list
4.3 – Produce short films
4.4 – Develop TCP communication toolkit
4.5 – Strengthen visual identity – e.g. new TCP logo; organize training sessions
© OECD/IEA 2017
All of us need to do our parts for all of us to be successful…
IEA (Members and Secretariat)
Make concerted efforts to raise resources for implementation of Action Plan
Provide TCPs with strategic directions to maximise impact and mutual benefits
Further raise TCP visibility, enhance communication, and strengthen interlinkages with multi-lateral
efforts
Governments participating in TCPs
Consider participation in TCPs as a means to pursue national energy research and technology
strategies
Ensure IEA Secretariat and the individual TCPs of interest are provided with resources and top-level
talent
Provide strategic directions and guidance to TCPs through the CERT, Working Parties, and TCP ExCos
TCPs
Dialogue and exchange of info with IEA Secretariat and governments on TCP strategy, activities and
resources
Seek to expand participation to maximise inputs and outputs of TCP activities
Ensure transparency and accountability of operations
© OECD/IEA 2017
Today’s strategic conversation
2015-17 progress provides foundation for further enhancements
Vast untapped potential remains, but we need actionable ideas
Ground rules – be concise, specific and direct
Take advantage of side meetings with IEA desk officers, partner country liaisons, governments, and among each other, etc.
Execution … a question of ambition!
© OECD/IEA 2017
www.iea.org/tcp IEA
© OECD/IEA 2017
Extra slides
IEA
© OECD/IEA 2017
Solar PV and wind are still leading the transition…
Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow
by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20
Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
TW
h
PV
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2 400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
TW
h
Onshore Wind
Data Forecast Target
© OECD/IEA 2017
… but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources
While renewable power additions keep breaking records, they need to grow much faster to reach the
2DS electricity generation targets. Progress on early-stage technologies also needs to accelerate.
Total renewable power generation by region
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 0002000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2025
Sh
are
of
Ren
ew
ab
le G
en
era
tio
n
Gen
era
tio
n (
TW
h)
Rest of Non-OECD
Brazil
India
China
OECD Europe
OECD Asia Oceania
OECD Americas
Share of renewable
generation
Share of renewable
generation 2025
Historical Forecast Targets
in the 2DS
in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2017
Can we enact a storage revolution
Batteries experience a huge scale-up in the B2DS, with EV battery markets leading other sectors in size
Installed battery storage and costs under various scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2015 2030 2045 2060
2DS B2DS
USD
/kW
h
GW
h
All othersectors
EV batteries
Battery costs,2DS
Battery costs,B2DS