|| 1
Towards an energy efficient and climate compatible future Swiss transportation systemSCCER School 2017October 20, 2017 - Engelberg
Presentation: Lukas Küng, PhD Candidate of LAV Energy Systems Research GroupMaterial: L. Küng, G. Georges, K. Boulouchos, SCCER Mobility
Lukas Küng 20.10.17
The current Situation
||
Why focus on Mobility? large impact
Transportation Sector (relative to other sectors): highest CO2 emissions
2015 (BAFU): 45.6% of national emissions (incl. int. aviation)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
other sectorsothers
Source: BAFU CO2-Statistik, April 2017 & BFS Gesamtenergiestatistik der Schweiz 3Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ann
ual C
O2
emis
sion
(dire
ct) [
Mt/y
r]
Source: BAFU, Entwicklung der Treibhausgasemissionen der Schweiz 1990-2015, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/klima/fachinfo-daten/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990april2016.xlsx.download.xlsx/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990.xlsx
Service and businesses
Industrie
Households
+ +Mobility (incl. int. aviation)
4Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Why focus on Mobility? large impact
https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/klima/fachinfo-daten/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990april2016.xlsx.download.xlsx/entwicklung_der_emissionenvontreibhausgasenseit1990.xlsx
||
Why focus on Mobility? large impact
Transportation Sector (relative to other sectors): highest CO2 emissions
2015 (BAFU): 45.6% of national emissions (incl. int. aviation)
highest demand in final energy2015 (BFS): 36% of national energy demand (households: 27.7%)
extreme dependency on fossil products2015 (BFS): 95.1% of energy demand based on oil
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
other sectorsothers
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
diesel gasoline kerosene
electricity
gas + other renewables
Source: BAFU CO2-Statistik, April 2017 & BFS Gesamtenergiestatistik der Schweiz 5Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Hydrogen Gasoline Diesel LPG Ethanol CNG Li-ion Battery
Ener
gy c
arrie
r vol
ume
and
mas
s
kg L
energycarriermass and volumefor travelling 100 km
~5 h
~1.3 h
~15 s
Liquid fuels have both excellent
specific and volum. energy densities
Liquid fuels are easy to handle and
contain
Refueling is > 1000 times faster than
recharging
6
Liquid hydrocarbon fuels a perfect match for mobile applications
Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Trends / Evolution business as usual
||Source: A. Schäfer, D.G. Victor, The future mobility of the world population, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 34 (2000) 171–205.
8Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Evolution of mobility demand? average travel budget +/- global constant
||Source: A. Schäfer, D.G. Victor, The future mobility of the world population, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract. 34 (2000) 171–205.
9Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Time is BIP independent, Distance is not wealth leads to increasing mobility demand
||Source: ARE, Perspektiven des Schweizerischn Personen und Gütervverkehrs bis 2040 10Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Switzerland national transport perspectives
KlimapolitikClimate policy Road to sustainability
||
Time horizon for decarbonizing: CO2 Budget
IPCC 2°C (66%) world carbon budget in 2010: 1000 Gt CO2
«per-capita» distribution results in 1.14 Gt CO2 for Switzerland
Assuming linear reduction: Budget will last until 2060
Road-based mobility sector must contribute with same rate
12Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
The 3 levers for CO2 reduction in mobility sector
13Lukas Küng 20.10.17
«Mobility-pricing»Spatial planningTeleworking/shopping«Sharing»Improved Components«Light weighting»Smaller vehiclesHybridization
Natural GasSynthetic fuelsHydrogenElectricity
year
~15 years
decades
KlimapolitikIs it really so easy?
|| 15Lukas Küng 20.10.17
KlimapolitikWe need strategic planningWhat are potential impacts?
||
Mobility system consisting of demand and supply Bottom-up representation
Focus on: Passenger cars Isolated Interventions: change of “status-quo”, apply to the maximum No rebound effects, technology acceptance or costs are considered Cost function: Additional electricity consumption of mobility sector
What are maximum reduction potentials?
useful energy end energyvkm CO2
PE
17Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Demand: Mikrozensus Mobilität und Verkehr 2010National survey on Mobility Demand: profiles, weighting factors and vehicle information
Observed demand(daily mobility) 62’000 people
Aggregate on National Level(annual, population)
MassFuel typeDisplacement volume….
18Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
From vkm to final energy Vehicle Energy Demand Simulation
Aim: fast but based on physical concepts Propulsive vehicle force:
Require Driving Cycle (NEDC, WLTP) Conversion Efficiency based on mean
Willans-Approach dynamometer measurements of Empa
𝐹𝐹𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑣𝑣, �̇�𝑣 = 𝒎𝒎𝑽𝑽 ⋅ �̇�𝒗 +12⋅ 𝜌𝜌𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚 ⋅ 𝒄𝒄𝒅𝒅 ⋅ 𝑨𝑨𝒇𝒇 ⋅ 𝒗𝒗2 + 𝒄𝒄𝒓𝒓 ⋅ 𝒎𝒎𝑽𝑽 ⋅ 𝑔𝑔
Rolling resistance (𝐹𝐹𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑟𝑟 )
Aerodynamic drag (𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 )
Acceleration (𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎)
Rb_3 Rb_2
Rb_1
EUDC
CADC_3BAB
Ra_1
Ra_2
CADC_2Ra_3
FTP_3CADC_1
FTP_2
y = 2.9215x + 6.3174R2 = 0.9971
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Mean pos. wheel-power in kWM
ean
chem
. pow
er in
kW
45%
35%30%25%20%15%
19Lukas Küng 20.10.17Source: C. Bach, P. Soltic, CO2 Reduction and Cost Efficiency Potential of Natural Gas Hybrid Passenger Cars, SAE International (2011) 1-10.
KlimapolitikExample:Change in Mobility behavior
||
Demand: short car trips bicycle
21Lukas Küng 20.10.17
KlimapolitikExample:Change in Mobility supply
||
Status-Quo:Diesel + Gasoline
1) Hybridization:Substitute entire fleet
2) Fuel Switch to CNG
Intervention: Hybridization and compressed natural gas (CNG)
23Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Status-Quo:Diesel + Gasoline
Battery electric vehiclesSubstitute where possible
Intervention: Battery electric vehicles (BEV)
24Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Gas hybrid
Plug-in gas hybrid vehicles:Substitute entire fleet
Intervention: Plug-in hybrid electric gas vehicles (PHEV CNG)
25Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Status-Quo:Diesel + Gasoline
Fuel cell electric vehicles:Substitute entire fleet
Intervention: Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV)
26Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Alternative technologies exist for passenger cars! Two reduction paths: evolutionary and disruptive
Main challenges: Costs and speed of transition Infrastructure
Passenger cars ≈ 15 years Trucks & busses ≈ 10-20 years Ships & airplanes ≈ 20-30 years Electricity generation & power plants ≈ 20-50 years
Acceptance and availability (policy) Large burden for electricity supply;
parallel evolution of energy supply and mobility sector required
Alternative technologies
27Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Alternative technologies exist for passenger cars! Two reduction paths: evolutionary and disruptive
Not addressed: effects of vehicle usage, life time and embedded emissions
Important: passenger cars are one part of the mobility sector Heavy-duty freight trucks transportation occurs globally
International Aviation Maritime freight transport
Alternative technologies
28Lukas Küng 20.10.17
||
Long-range, heavy-duty global transport modes
Mode /sector
2010 share of transport GHG
emissions
Growth 2010-2015
Projected increase 2030(compared to 2010)
Projected share 2030 (if all other transport sector
emissions stay constant)
Passengerair travel 10.6% 37.5% (pkm) 3.57 x 27%
Maritimefreight 9.3% 23.1% (tkm) 2.3 x 16%
source: IPCC 2014
Direct electrification not possible in these two sectors renewable chemical energy carriers (H2, CxHy) will be a MUST
The global challenge
Lukas Küng 20.10.17 29
||
Decarbonization of the transport sector is an absolute necessity, but also a huge challenge (in Switzerland and worldwide)
Innovation on both the demand and supply side must be pursued in parallel
Technology will be crucial – evolutionary and disruptive paths must be well orchestrated for optimal CO2 reduction trajectories
Socio-economic policy must be designed in line with these targets
Conclusion & Outlook
30Lukas Küng 20.10.17
Towards an energy efficient and climate compatible future Swiss transportation systemThe current Situation�Why focus on Mobility?� large impactSlide Number 4Why focus on Mobility?� large impactLiquid hydrocarbon fuels� a perfect match for mobile applicationsTrends / Evolution� business as usualSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10KlimapolitikTime horizon for decarbonizing: CO2 Budget�The 3 levers for CO2 reduction in mobility sector �KlimapolitikSlide Number 15KlimapolitikWhat are maximum reduction potentials?�Demand: Mikrozensus Mobilität und Verkehr 2010�National survey on Mobility Demand: profiles, weighting factors and vehicle informationFrom vkm to final energy� Vehicle Energy Demand SimulationKlimapolitikDemand: short car trips bicycleKlimapolitikIntervention: Hybridization and compressed natural gas (CNG) Intervention: Battery electric vehicles (BEV)�Intervention: Plug-in hybrid electric gas vehicles (PHEV CNG)Intervention: Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV)�Alternative technologies�Alternative technologies�Slide Number 29Slide Number 30
