Towards IPCC AR5: The Physical Science Basis

Emerging Questions, Structure of Report and Schedule

Thomas Stocker and the Bern Team

IPCC Co-Chair Working Group I

Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchPhysics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

• IPCC does not perform science but ...

• ... implicitly, the IPCC process stimulates climate science

• curiosity-driven research must remain the top priority

• the highly politicised environment poses a serious risk

• some groups want to discredit climate science and damage IPCC

• IPCC procedures are only as good as their implementation

• need a procedure to address errors effectively and expediently

Preliminary remarks:

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

• IPCC does not perform science but ...

• ... implicitly, the IPCC process stimulates climate sciencesignificantly

• curiosity-driven research must remain top priority

• the highly politicised enironment poses a serious risk

• some groups want to discredit and damage IPCC, so be vigilant

• IPCC procedures are only as good as their implementation

• need a procedure to address errors effectively and expediently

Preliminary remarks:

RigorRobustness

Transparency Comprehensiveness

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations ....

• Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.

• Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...

IPCC (2007):

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)

[...]

[...]

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Mar 2009 EM on the Science of Alternative Metrics Meeting Report and Recommendations to UNFCCC AWG KP

Sep 2009 EM on Detection and Attribution Relating to ACC Meeting Report and Good Practice Guidance Paper

Jan 2010 EM on Assessing and Combining Multi-Model Climate Projections Meeting Report and Good Practice Guidance Paper

Jun 2010 WS on Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities Meeting Report

Jul 2010 cross-WG Meeting on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties Update of Guidance Notes

Preparations of WGI towards AR5:

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Trends and rates of observed climate changeHas climate change accelerated?

Large ice sheets in polar regions Is the Greenland ice sheet stable – what about WAIS and EAIS?

Irreversibilities and abrupt change in the climate systemHow robust and accurate is our understanding?

Clouds and aerosols, and their feedbacksCan we constrain the uncertainty associated with cloud and aerosol processes?

Carbon and other biogeochemical cyclesWhich carbon cycle feedbacks become relevant in the coming decades?

Near-term and long-term climate projectionsHow reliable is decadal prediction, what are the uncertainties beyond 2100?

Climate phenomena across regionsHow do frequencies and amplitudes of monsoon, ENSO, and others change?

Emerging Questions:

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Trends and rates of observed climate changeDecadal trends: accelerating in Arctic sea ice, highly variable in temperature

(Kwok et al. 2009)

Are

a M

ulti-

Year

Ice

(103

km2 )

(Easterling and Wehner, 2009)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

(Prit

char

d et

al.

2009

)

Large ice sheets in polar regionsExtensive dynamic thinning along the margins of Greenland and Antarctica

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

(Vel

icog

na, 2

009)

Large ice sheets in polar regionsAccelerating mass loss of both polar ice sheets identified by GRACE

Greenland: –286 Gt/yr2007-09 Antarctica: –246 Gt/yr2006-09

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Irreversibilities and abrupt climate change

Irreversibility of CO2 perturbation ... ... and regional consequences

(Sol

omon

et a

l., 2

009)

(Pla

ttner

et a

l. 20

08)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Irreversibilities and abrupt climate change

Abrupt climate change ...

(Ste

ffens

en e

t al.

2008

)

(Boc

k et

al.

2010

)

... but no “clathrate gun”

CH4

δD(CH4)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Clouds and aerosols, and their feedbacksLow-level clouds: Positive feedback in the north-east Pacific

(Cle

men

t et a

l. 20

09)

Cha

nge

in C

loud

Cov

er a

t 2×

CO

2(%

)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

(Lüt

hi e

t al.,

200

8; L

oule

rgue

et a

l., 2

008)

Carbon and other biogeochemical cyclesIce core reconstructions of GHGs now back to 800,000 years B.P.

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Carbon and other biogeochemical cyclesRegional carbon cycle fingerprints caused by abrupt climate change

(Boz

biyi

k et

al.,

in p

rep.

)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Near-term and long-term climate projectionsMulti-model ensemble simulations from CMIP5 (and CMIP3)

(Tre

nber

th, 2

010)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Near-term and long-term climate projectionsProjections using CMIP5 ensembles and a hierarchy of models

(Pla

ttner

et a

l., 2

008)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

1961-1990 2021-2050 2071-2100

Number of days with Tmax > 35°C and Tmin > 20°C

Near-term and long-term climate projectionsExtreme events: heat waves, tropical cyclones, droughts, etc.

(Fis

cher

and

Sch

är, 2

010)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Climate phenomena across the regionsMonsoon systems: processes, observation, projection

(Boo

s an

d Ku

ang,

201

0; C

ane,

201

0)

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:

Introduction Chapter 1

Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5

Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7

From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10

Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12

Integration Chapters 13, 14

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

FAR 199011 Chapters

SAR 199511 Chapters

TAR 200114 Chapters

AR4 200711 Chapters

AR5 201314 Chapters

sea levelcloudscarbon cycle

Climate Change2013

observations

regional change

paleoclimate

Structure of AR5 in perspective

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

ScheduleSep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors and Review Editors

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, ChinaMar 2011 Completion of 0-order draftJul 2011 Second LA meeting, TBD, FranceNov 2011 Completion 1st-order draftApr 2012 Third LA meeting, TBD, MoroccoAug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draftJan 2013 Fourth LA meeting, TBD

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

Writ

ing

Perio

d

Exp/

Gvt

Rev

iew

ScheduleSep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors and Review Editors

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, ChinaMar 2011 Completion of 0-order draftJul 2011 Second LA meeting, TBD, FranceNov 2011 Completion 1st-order draftApr 2012 Third LA meeting, TBD, MoroccoAug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draftJan 2013 Fourth LA meeting, TBDMay 2013 Completion of Final DraftSep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGI

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

Writ

ing

Perio

d

Exp/

Gvt

Rev

iew

ScheduleSep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors and Review Editors

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, ChinaMar 2011 Completion of 0-order draftJul 2011 Second LA meeting, TBD, FranceNov 2011 Completion 1st-order draftApr 2012 Third LA meeting, TBD, MoroccoAug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draftJan 2013 Fourth LA meeting, TBDMay 2013 Completion of Final DraftSep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGIMar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIApr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIISep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

Writ

ing

Perio

d

Exp/

Gvt

Rev

iew

ScheduleSep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors and Review Editors

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Nov 2010 First LA meeting, Kunming, ChinaMar 2011 Completion of 0-order draftJul 2011 Second LA meeting, TBD, FranceNov 2011 Completion 1st-order draftApr 2012 Third LA meeting, TBD, MoroccoAug 2012 Completion of 2nd-order draftJan 2013 Fourth LA meeting, TBDMay 2013 Completion of Final DraftSep 2013 Final Approval Plenary WGIMar 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIApr 2014 Final Approval Plenary WGIIISep 2014 Final Approval Plenary Synthesis Report

2010

2012

2011

2013

2014

ScheduleSep 2008 Election Co-Chairs & WG Bureaus

July 2009 Scoping Meeting

May 2010 Bureau selection of Lead Authors and Review Editors

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

Amount of material (literature, simulations) and the burden to the scientific community

Significantly broader model diversity and likely increase in uncertainty

Communication of uncertainties: what is known, what is emerging

More cross-WG cooperation retaining full coherency

Maintain the highest standards under increased pressure and expectations in a highly politicized environment

Rigor, Robustness, Transparency, Comprehensiveness

Challenges:

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

The AR5 is you – your input is key!as authors, contributors, reviewers

Climate Change 2013

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

New features in WGI AR5

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

New features in WGI AR5

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

New features in WGI AR5

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

New features in WGI AR5

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Emerging Questions, Structure, Schedule

The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch

New features in WGI AR5

Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections:Editorial Team, Review Editor Team, Advisory Board

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