Towards sustainable production and use of biofuels sustainable production and use of biofuels Stefan...

Towards sustainable production and useof biofuels

Stefan Bringezu

DirectorMaterial Flows and ResourceManagementWuppertal Institute

Member of the InternationalPanel for Sustainable ResourceManagement

PresentationInternatioal Seminar onEnergy and ResourceProductivityUCSB17 Nov 2008Santa Barbara

Wuppertal Institute17 Nov 2008 1Stefan Bringezu

Historical sketch on the socio-industrial metabolism Current trends relevant for biofuel use Land use change and implications Options for more efficient and sustainable resource use Conclusions and metabolic outlook

The presentation


Ancient stages of metabolic developmentThe pre-industrial era


Ancient stages of metabolic developmentThe industrial era


Current stage of metabolic developmentThe agrofuels and biomaterials phase


Global final energy consumption in 2006

3 Nov 2008

Source: REN21 (2007).


Routes for primarily energetic use of biomass


Global production of liquid biofuels

3 Nov 2008

Source: REN21 (2007).

Source: SCOPE.

2007: 1.8% of global fuel

2008: 3.5% (ethanol 5.46%, biodiesel 1.5%)

2007

Source: OECD/FAO 2008.


International trade in biofuels 2007

Source: OECD 2008b – data compiledfrom F.O. Licht’s (2008).

Source: OECD 2008b Data compiledfrom LMC (2007a).

Ethanol

Biodiesel


Blending mandates in at least 36 states/provinces and17 countries at the national level until 2006

Mostly 10–15% for ethanol, and 2–5% biodiesel Various forms of subsidies, tax exemptions, feed-in tariffs etc. Intentions:

- provide income to farmers, support rural development- energy security- climate mitigation

Backed by earlier research indicatinga. GHG benefits b. significant potentials for fuel cropping

....both depending on assumptions on available land and yields

Policy driving biofuel demand and supporting production:targets, mandates, subsidies


Greenhouse gas savings of biofuels compared to fossilfuels

Sources: own compilation based on review of Menichetti/Otto 2008 for bioethanol and biodiesel; RFA 2008 for biomethane,bioethanol from residues and FT diesel.


Methodological caveats: An example - Effect of depreciation onGHG savings of biodiesel from palm oil

Source: IFEU et al. 2007.


Global crop yields grow slower than in past 5years moving averages

Source: based on FAOSTAT online data 2008.


Cereal yield increase came down to meet growth rate ofworld population

Source: UN population statistics online; FAOSTAT online.


Global production of livestock products is increasing

Source: OECD-FAO (2008)

Note: Selected livestocks products include beef, pork, poultry, sheep meat and milk.*Data for 2010 are projections.


Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland willbe expanded for feeding the world with protein rich meals

Source: UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006); estimates based on Gallagher report 2008

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004 2030

In

dex 2

004 =

100

Population

Cropland

Cropland per capita

Cereals yields in

DC

Meat consumption

in DC

Cereal yieldsCereal yieldsCereal yields

Meat consumption


Land use for fuel crops

Actual land use 24 - 28 Mha for biofuels (2% gobal cropland) Trends for expansion particular in tropical countries (high yields)

Brasil:

- Sugare cane 9 mill ha in 2008 (up 27% since 2007)

- Potential area for soybeans: 100 mill ha (23 Mha in 2005)

- expansion at the expense of grasslands, savannahs(Cerrado) and tropical forests

Indonesia:

- oil palm plantations often on cleared forest land (2/3)

- applications for expansion: 6 mio ha -> 25 mio ha

- forest clearing 1/4 on peat soils


Estimates of future global biofuels use and crop landrequirement - 1/2 -

Notes: *) lower value from linear interpolation of estimates for 7% biofuels to 14% biofuels (the latter as average of more domesticsupply and more imports), upper value for 14% and more domestic supply.**) The lower figure takes into account the avoided land use benefits of co-products, 2nd generation technologies from wastes andresidues and assumes significant improvements in yield. The higher estimate is a gross figure, for the low yield scenario, not taking intoaccount the anticipated benefits of co-products and without a positive contribution from 2nd generation technologies.


Estimates of future global biofuels use and crop landrequirement - 2/2 -

Source: own compilation after sources indicated in table.

Notes: ***) The lower figures refer tothe OLSR version, higher figures forthe PCCR version of the EPPAmodel (MIT Emissions Predictionsand Policy Analysis Model). OLSRstands for Observed Land SupplyResponse and considers theresponse in land conversion in recentyears representative of the long-termresponse. PCCR means PureConversion Cost Response andsimulates unrestricted conversion ofnatural forest and grassland as longas costs are covered by returns.****) The least amount of land isrequired when palm oil andsugarcane is considered (142 Mha),whereas soybean and maize crops atindicative yields require 600 Mha.


Implications of land use changeGHG emissions - The "carbon debt" - Fargione et al. 2008


GHG balance estimate*, in 2030 10% biofuels could substitute fossil fuels

emitting 0.8 Gt CO2

LUC induced additional emissions: 0.44 to 1.7 Gt CO2

Implications of land use changeGHG emissions - mitigation by 1st generation biofuels questionable

*Ravindranath et al. 2009


Policy targeted BAU: biofuel demand will contribute toexpansion of global crop land

Example of a net consuming country:Global land use of Germany for biomass consumption

Source: Bringezu et al. 2008


In particular biodiesel imports will lead to increased GHG emissionsdue to land use change - even in case of successful certification

Gross production land for

Biodiesel

Net consumption land for all agricultural goods

(additonal to basis of 2004)

In 2030 BAU I BAU II BAU I BAU II

Land requirements in Mha 7.21 6.88 2.49 3.44

of which: Palm oil Indonesia 0.56 1.09 0.19 0.55

of which: Soya beans Brazil 6.65 5.79 2.29 2.89

GHG Emissions absolute from LUC in Mt CO2-Equivalents

a 37 54 13 27

GHG Mitigation through Biodiesel b -14 -17 -14 -17

Net-Effect GHG for Biodiesel a plus

b 23 37 -1 10

Year when GHG saving begin 2039 2050

GHG Mitigation through Biomass c -25 -35 -25 -35

Net-Effect GHG for Biomass a plus

c 12 19 -12 -8

Biofuels for German supply: Land use change will induce GHG emissions

Source: Bringezu et al. 2008


losses due to habitat change, invasive species, pollution benefits from mitigated climate change can not compensate losses by

habitat conversion for decades

Implications of land use changeBiodiversity loss

Source: Eickhout et al. 2008.


Increasing yields and optimizing agricultural production Restoring formerly degraded land Stationary use of bioenergy Use of waste and production residues Cascading use of biomass Mineral Based Renewable Energy Systems Increase efficiency in fuel consumption Improving diets and reducing food waste

We can do betterOptions for a more efficient and sustainable use of resources


Energy yields for different use paths of biomass:Higher potential of stationary use

Source: SRU 2007 (adapted from LFU 2004: Arnold et al. 2006; DENA 2006; FNR 2005b: 2005a; 2006a; Keymer & Reinhold 2006; Schindler & Weindorf 2006)Note: SRP = short-rotation plantation, BtL = biomass-to-liquid, PP = power plant, CHP = combined heat and power, EtOH = ethanol, SB = sugar beet

Energy yield in [GJ/ha]


CO2 avoidance from alternative uses of landWood substituting coal provides still highest benefit

Source: Edwards et al. (2007)


Source: http://www.sonne-ueber-mbinga.de/Location: Mbinga/Tansania

Stationary use of biofuels provides communities in DCs withhigh valued power supply


Multifunctional Biomass SystemsSchematic Overview

Energy use

Electricity Heat Fuels

+Recycling:cascading

Multiple utility

Source: after Dornburg (2004).

Material use

Construction Food/fodder Chemicals Pulp and Paper Other

Land use - Production of Biomass

Wood (short/long term rotation) Perennial herbaceous crops (e.g. miscanthus) Other crops (oilseed, sugar, starch)

Waste-to-energy


Comparative LCA: biomass vs. fossil resources

Source: Weiß et al. 2004, ZAU

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Media

n in inhabit

ant e

quiv

ale

nts p

er

10

0 h

a

Acidification PotentialEutrophication PotentialGlobal Warming PotentialNon-renewable Energy Consumption

Energy

(electricity/heat)

Fuels

Commodities


Estimates of bioenergy potential: significant contribution ofresidues and waste

Source: IEA 2007b after Berndes et al., 2003; Smeets et al., 2007; Hoogwijk et al., 2005a.


Global land use can only be reduced significantly bychanges on demand side

Biofuels Germany: Alternative strategies with lower globalland requirements and higher GHG mitigation potential


Ferrari F430 runs on biofuel

What will drive the car of the future?

Developing countries long formobility

Source Fotos: Jeff McNeely


Designing cars different: there are significant potentials for energyand resource efficiency

short-medium term long term

Loremo:•450 kg•1.5 l/km

Pac car:•32 kg•4.8 g hydrogen/100km


Using biomass for capturing solar energy is rather inefficient

Biomass is better used for material purposes

Energy should then be recovered from waste and residues

Cascading need to be further explored and developed

Enhancing efficient u s e of biomass and minerals may be morerewarding than increasing the supply

Conclusionsfor a more sustainable resource management


Future features of metabolic developmentResource efficiency and carbon recycling

Many thanks for your attention !

[email protected]

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