Town of Milton EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS · PD-040-16 DRAFT October 13 2016 Town of Milton EMPLOYMENT...

APPENDIX 2 PD-040-16

DRAFT October 13 2016

Town of Milton

EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PHASE 2 ANALYSES AND RECOMMENDATIONS REPORT

File # 11165 B

Prepared by:

MacNaughton Hermsen Britton Clarkson Planning Limited (MHBC)

901 Guelph Line Burlington, ON L7R 3N8

T: 416 518 8394 | F: 905 761 5589 With

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

2000 Argentia Rd #101, Mississauga, ON L5N 1V9

T: 905 272 3600

DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study

Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 4

1.1 SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 FINDINGS .......................................................................................... 6

1.2 SURVEY RESULTS AND ADDITIONAL STAKEHOLDER INPUT ............................................. 12

2.0 ASSESSMENT OF MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT AREAS ...................................................... 13

2.1 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EMPLOYMENT AREAS ................................................... 14

2.2 DESIGNATED AND PLANNED EMPLOYMENT AREAS ......................................................... 16

2.3 EMPLOYMENT AREAS STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES/OPPORTUNITIES/CONSTRAINTS

(S.W.O.C.) ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................ 21

2.4 INDUSTRY SECTOR REQUIREMENTS ................................................................................... 23

2.5 MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT AREAS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL .......................................... 24

3.0 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ....................... 26

3.1 REGIONAL GROWTH DRIVERS ............................................................................................. 26

3.2 TOWN OF MILTON LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT FORECAST .............................................. 28

3.3 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS FORECAST APPROACH ......................................................... 34

3.4 EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS .......................................................................... 35

3.5 EMPLOYMENT LAND DEMAND ............................................................................................ 38

3.6 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS TO 2036 AND 2041 ................................................................. 39

3.7 OPTIONS TO DESIGNATE FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LANDS ................................................. 40

3.8 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED CN INTERMODAL PROJECT

ON MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ........................................................................... 42

4.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND CONVERSION ............................................................................ 43

4.1 ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL SITES .................................................................................... 43

4.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CONVERSIONS ......................................................................... 44

5.0 EMPLOYMENT INTENSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES ..................................................... 47

5.1 INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING EMPLOYMENT AREAS ...................................................... 47

5.2 INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES IN MIXED USE AREAS ........................................................... 52



5.3 SPECIAL EMPLOYMENT NODES AND DISTRICTS ................................................................ 54

6.0 CHALLENGES FOR INCREASED JOB CREATION AND MEETING EMPLOYMENT

OBJECTIVES ......................................................................................................................... 55

7.0 PROVINICAL LAND USE PLANNING CHANGES ............................................................ 58

7.1 FORECASTS .......................................................................................................................... 58

7.2 INTENSIFICATION TARGET ................................................................................................... 58

7.3 MINIMUM DENSITY OF DESIGNATED GREENFIELD AREA .................................................. 59

7.4 PROTECTING PRIME EMPLOYMENT AREAS ........................................................................ 59

7.5 EMPLOYMENT INTENSIFICATION AT TRANSIT-SUPPORTIVE AREAS................................ 60

8.0 RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS AND POLICY CHANGES .............................. 62

8.1 OFFICIAL PLAN AMENDMENTS ............................................................................................ 65

9.0 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................67

APPENDIX A - PUBLIC SURVEY RESPONSES

APPENDIX B - ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL CONVERSION SITES

LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 2-1: Developed and Vacant Designated Employment Lands in Milton

Figure 2-2: Town of Milton Derry Green Corporate Business Park Land Use Plan

Figure 2-3: Town of Milton Existing, Planned and Future Strategic Employment Areas

Figure 2-4: Milton’s Employment Areas Analysis

Figure 2-5: Physical Attributes of Employment Areas Required to Attract Target Employment Sectors

Figure 3-1: Town of Milton’s Share of Halton Region Employment Base, 2011 to 2041

Figure 3-2: Town of Milton Employment Forecast – Reference vs. Alternative Scenario

Figure 3-3: Employment Growth by Sector – Reference vs. Alternative Forecast

Figure 3-4: Town of Milton Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-5: Town of Milton Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-6: Town of Milton Employment Forecast Incremental Growth, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-7: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Growth by Sector, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-8: Town of Milton Proportion of 2016 to 2041 Employment Growth on Employment Lands by Sector

Figure 3-9: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Growth on Employment Lands, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-10: Town of Milton Target Employment Density

Figure 3-11: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Land Demand, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-12: Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated Employment Land Supply

Figure 3-13: Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated and Planned Growth Areas Employment Land Supply

Figure 3-14: Town of Milton Employment Land Needs, 2016 to 2041

Figure 5-1: Estimated Area of Existing and Designated Employment Areas in Milton

Figure 5-2: Observed Land Uses in Existing and Planned Employment Areas

Figure 6-1: Milton Employment Total Employment, Activity Rate between 1996 and 2015



1.0 INTRODUCTION

In April of 2015, the Town of Milton (“Town”) Council directed Town staff to undertake a further study of

its employment planning framework and employment land needs to the year 2041. Early in 2013, the

Town had commenced a Municipal Comprehensive Review (“MCR”) to address the Town’s employment

and commercial land needs to 2031. The MCR identified concerns related to the pattern of land

consumption which the Town of Milton has experienced. MHBC and Watson & Associates were jointly

retained to undertake an additional study related to planning for the future employment lands. The

further study of the Town’s employment lands is intended to form the basis of a comprehensive strategy

to guide the designation and development of urban employment lands to 2041. In particular, the study is

to address how the Town should plan for employment lands at densities to meet its local objectives and

inform Regional policies.

STUDY PURPOSE

The purpose of the Employment Land Needs Assessment is to confirm Milton’s employment land needs,

provide information on trends and the implications for Milton’s employment land supply and demand,

analyze the study findings and recommend supporting policies and direction for employment land

development. The recommended policies are intended to ensure the future planning goals of the Town

and the Region are implemented. They also recognize the market forces influencing land needs and

reinforce the physical and urban context of the Town, while respecting the overarching policy framework.

STUDY PROCESS

The Employment Land Needs Study was commenced in August of 2015. The Phase 1 Report was

presented to Council on January 25, 2016. The Phase 1 report included a detailed assessment of the local,

regional, Provincial and broader employment and economic context. The Phase 1 report also provided

an assessment of the land use policy framework within which employment lands are planned, and

reviewed relevant research, factors and influences on employment land planning and development. Best

practices in employment land use planning and policies were also considered during the first phase of the

study.

In addition to the background research completed in Phase 1, the Town hosted an expert panel session

to discuss trends, influences and factors affecting employment land planning in Ontario and specifically

in Milton. The panel included a range of professionals engaged in employment land use development

who offered a range of perspectives and opinions on the challenges and issues related to employment

land use planning and development for Milton. A number of interviews were also carried out with key



stakeholders who are directly engaged in the development of employment land in the Town. Additional

input was also received through public comments.

This Phase 2 report provides an analysis of the Phase 1 findings as well as an assessment of the Town’s current employment land supply and demand. The Phase 2 report also provides projections for employment growth, considers areas for employment intensification and assesses potential conversion sites (employment lands proposed to be considered for conversion to non-employment land uses). The Phase 2 report concludes with responses to a number of questions raised through the Phase 1 process, as well as a number of recommendations for consideration related to land use policies and directions to meet the Town’s long-term objectives for its employment lands.

STUDY PRINCIPLES

A set of principles were developed with the initial launch of the study. These principles are derived from

the key messages conveyed in the initial MCR work as well as in the list of issues and questions to be

addressed through the study. These principles have been considered throughout the study and upheld

with the recommended strategy to respond to the employment land needs and planning in Milton.

1. The Study will respect employment land policies in Provincial and Regional Plans thereby

providing policy predictability related to the supply of serviced employment lands and the uses

that are permitted within them.

2. The Study will determine the supply of serviced and designated employment lands to facilitate

short-term, medium-term and long-term economic growth.

3. The Study will provide specific direction to maximize the competitiveness of the Town’s

employment lands and promote the growth, retention and expansion of existing businesses to

achieve a diverse mix of jobs by employment sector.

4. The Study will encourage a balanced residential/non-residential tax ratio and employment

activity rate (ratio of jobs to population) over the long-term planning horizon.

5. The Study will encourage innovative businesses and employers located at the urban centre and

strategic employment areas.

6. The Study will support high quality and environmentally responsible development of

employment lands.

7. The Study will promote vibrant employment areas and corridors that provide a diverse range of

employment uses as well as an appropriate range of employment supportive uses that enhance

the attractiveness and functionality of the Town’s employment areas.

8. The Study recognizes the need to maximize land utilization/density on employment lands,

including promoting intensification, while accommodating land expansive employment uses

where appropriate.

9. The Study will provide direction with respect to the protection of strategic employment lands

beyond a 20-year planning horizon.



1.1 SUMMARY OF PHASE 1 FINDINGS

Phase 1 of the study focused on the current market context for Milton’s employment lands and trends at

the Provincial, Regional and local level. The first phase also identified Milton’s employment land profile

including recent non-residential development trends, the existing vacant land supply and factors

influencing regional competitiveness. The Phase 1 findings provided an overview of the current planning

policy framework and municipal practices related to employment land planning. A summary of the key

findings from the Phase 1 study are set out in this section of the report.

PROVINCIAL AND REGIONAL MARKET CONTEXT

In examining Milton’s employment lands it was essential to understand the broader influences and

factors that affect the regional economy as a whole. Some of the key findings related to the Provincial

and The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (G.T.H.A.) economic context included:

a) The expected continued shift in the provincial economy to an increasingly serviced-based

economy driven by strong growth in “knowledge-based” sectors.

b) The diverse and highly competitive G.T.H.A. economy has fueled a steady level of employment

growth over the past decade. Despite the global economic slowdown, G.T.H.A. employment

levels have increased in almost all major sectors of the service sector economy since 2006.

c) The G.T.H.A. has experienced significant employment growth in the goods movement sector

over the past decade comprised of transportation/ warehousing and wholesale trade.

d) Since bottoming out in 2010, industrial development activity has been steadily rebounding with

2014 activity totalling 5.3 million sq.ft. Over the 2006 to 2014 period, Halton Region accounted

for 21%, of the G.T.H.A.’s new industrial development.

e) Over the past five years, industrial development in the G.T.H.A. has been oriented to large-

scale stand-alone industrial buildings housing wholesale trade, transportation/ warehousing as

well as multi-tenant industrial condominiums, accommodating a range of industrial and non-

industrial uses.

f) With respect to the office market, the G.T.H.A. contains 198 million sq.ft. of office space. Of

this total, Halton Region’s office space inventory of 9.8 million sq.ft. represents approximately

5% of the G.T.H.A. total. Demand for office space within employment areas is increasingly

single tenant and integrated with multi-purpose facilities (e.g. R&D, training centres, wholesale

trade) often in campus-type settings and there are growing opportunities for office

development within innovation districts located on employment lands which have direct

synergies with knowledge-based clusters.



HALTON REGION AND LOCAL CONTEXT

Halton Region continues to experience significant growth in population and employment. The amount,

type and location of recent employment growth have strongly influenced the built form of development

on employment lands and future employment needs by local municipalities within Halton. Recent

employment trends in Halton Region include the following.

a. Developed employment lands in Halton Region total 3,377 net ha, approximately 11% of the G.T.H.A. total. The majority of the Region’s developed employment lands (72% of developed land area) are located in South Halton, primarily along the Q.E.W. corridor within the City of Burlington and the Town of Oakville.

b. Over the past decade, employment lands have been shifting from more mature municipalities such as Mississauga, Richmond Hill, Markham, and Burlington to outer edges of the G.T.H.A., such as Milton and Caledon, as well as the Greater Golden Horseshoe (G.G.H.) “Outer-Ring”. Employment land absorption levels in Halton Region have averaged approximately 48 net ha per year over the past decade representing approximately 19% of total employment lands absorption within the G.T.H.A. over this time period.

c. Key sub-sectors which have been accommodated on recently absorbed employment lands include professional, scientific and technical services, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, management of companies and enterprises and wholesale trade.

d. Average employment density levels on employment lands across many G.T.H.A. municipalities have fallen in recent years. The average employment density on employment lands in Halton Region is 30 jobs per net ha which is lower than in Peel or York Region. In Milton, overall employment density on employment lands averages 17 jobs per net ha and is driven primarily by the significant development activity in large-scale warehousing and distribution/logistics to serve the goods movement sector.

EMERGING TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT LAND DEVELOPMENT

While many existing greenfield employment developments continue to be planned for land-intensive

expansive industrial uses, there is a trend towards planning for employment areas in a way that

maximizes the use of land and infrastructure. This trend provides for economic clustering at a more dense

scale than traditional suburban business parks or industrial areas which includes the emergence of

employment communities and innovation districts.

Innovation districts have emerged as a new way to promote knowledge-based economic development

and offer a unique potential to spur productive, inclusive and sustainable economic development. They

are planned to optimize their economic, physical and networking assets.

Intensifying existing employment areas is also an efficient way to increase the density of existing

employment areas. Successful intensification of existing employment areas reinforces the existing

clusters by facilitating the growth and evolution of existing businesses. Promoting the introduction of

complementary accessory uses can allow existing employment areas to operate as a more complete and

connected employment community. The urbanization of existing suburban business parks and the

refurbishing and redevelopment of older industrial areas is an example of this shift.



WHAT THE EXPERTS TOLD US

An expert panel event titled “Milton Employment Lands: Trends, Factors and Influences” was held on

Thursday November 26, 2015. The panel agreed that Milton has a great foundation for jobs and a strong

base of warehouse and logistics employment. The panel provided insights related to employment

planning and job creation highlighting the following key points.

a) Human capital is a critical factor contributing to the attractiveness of Milton as a place of

employment.

b) A vision for the future should include a balance of social and business goals.

c) The people and the policy-makers of Milton must consider what the Town’s core values are and

how these values would relate to the economic realities of Milton’s future.

d) Milton is well-positioned to retain local residents to work in the municipality instead of taking

the 400-series highway to commute to jobs elsewhere in the G.T.H.A.

e) The development timeline of employment areas is longer than all other uses. As such, build-out

and intensification of employment lands typically takes many years longer than other uses.

Given the longer timeframe of employment development, it is important for policy-makers to

evaluate short-term economic conditions with a strong understanding of the long-term goals of

the Town.

f) There are an increasing number of small and medium-sized firms engaged in innovation and

development in the Town of Milton, who have a specific set of workplace needs that should be

accommodated.

g) New and existing employment areas should be planned as “employment communities” that

have a variety of employment and employment-supportive uses.

Key industry stakeholders also provided information through a series of interviews. The stakeholders

echoed many of the comments heard at the panel session and reinforced the need to provide more

flexibility within the employment policies, the ability to provide for more focused employment

communities with a range of supportive uses, and the need to shift the focus of employment planning

from the “protection of lands” to the “creation of jobs”.





MILTON’S ECONOMIC PROFILE

A number of local economic, socio-economic and financial trends are influencing growth trends and

competitiveness on employment lands in the Town of Milton. They include the following:

a) Milton’s total employment base has more than doubled over the 1996- 2015 period, increasing

from approximately 19,500 to an estimated 38,200.

b) Milton has a strong presence in wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, retail trade

and construction, which are also growing sectors in the Town.

c) The manufacturing sector has a strong presence in the Town, but has experienced a steady

decline in employment over the past decade, consistent with trends in the broader economy.

d) In contrast, knowledge-based sectors, including professional, scientific and technical services,

finance and insurance as well as real estate, and rental and leasing which are generally under-

represented in the Town, have been experiencing moderate to steady employment growth

over the past 10 years.

e) Milton’s labour force1 has grown at a significantly faster rate than its employment base. Over

the 2001-2011 period, the Town’s labour force expanded from 19,000 to 48,000, an increase of

252%, compared to a 47% increase in the employment base2.

f) The Town’s live-work ratio has declined significantly, from 46% in 2001 to 26% in 2011.

g) Of the total employment base in Milton, 40% of jobs are held by Milton residents, while the

majority of the remainder commute from other municipalities in the western G.T.H.A.

MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY

Milton’s employment land supply includes existing designated and built out lands, planned employment

areas (greenfield areas) and Future Strategic Employment Areas, intended to accommodate growth over

the longer term. A total of 688 net ha (1,700 net acres) of employment lands were identified as developed

within the Town of Milton as of November, 2015. The Town’s employment lands contain approximately

17.2 million sq.ft. of building space.

Milton’s designated employment lands include the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park and Derry

Green Corporate Business Park. The planned employment areas include the Milton Education Village,

Southwest Milton, the Trafalgar/Derry Lands and the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Extension

lands. The Town also has approximately 1,400 gross ha (3,400 gross acres) of Future Strategic

Employment Area.

1 Labour force is defined as people who work that live in Milton. 2 Employment base are the jobs in Milton.



MILTON’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Milton has experienced strong development activity on its employment lands over the past decade. Over

the 2005-2014 period, the Town has averaged 82,000 sq.m. (882,600 sq.ft.) of building activity (new and

expansions) on employment lands annually. While development activity on employment lands in 2013

and 2014 was relatively modest, activity in the first three quarters of 2015 totaled 128,000 sq.m. (1.4

million sq.ft.), well above the 10-year historical average. New building construction has accounted for

85% of total development activity on employment lands over the 2006-2014 period, compared to 15%

for expansions.

Over the 2005-2014 period, 89% of development on employment lands has been in the industrial sector,

with 2% in office commercial and 9% in other commercial and institutional development. A significant

share of industrial development has been in logistics/distribution.

Milton’s share of Halton Region’s total new industrial development has increased significantly over the

past decade. From 2010 through 2014, Milton accounted for 70% of the Region’s industrial development

on employment lands. This is compared to 46% over the 2005-2009 period.

Employment land absorption levels have averaged approximately 20 net ha (49 net acres) per year.

Employment lands absorption in 2015 based on data through November totaled 30 net ha, significantly

higher than the 10-year historical average. Employment densities on employment lands absorbed over

the past decade have been slightly lower than the existing 2015 employment lands base (16 jobs per net

ha vs. 17 jobs per net ha).

Milton maintains a healthy and competitive role in the Regional and G.T.H.A. economic market. Its

competitive advantage is related to its location and access to Highway 401, a highly skilled labour force,

high quality of life, competitive cost of development in relation to market demand and potential return

on investment, and available land supply.

PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT

How Milton can plan for its future employment lands is bound by current Provincial and Regional policy.

The current Milton Official Plan also provides for approved Council direction for employment land that is

the subject of this review.

The 2014 Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the

Growth Plan) set out legislated policies that require municipalities to accommodate employment growth

targets and the provision of policies to provide for the protection of employment areas. The Growth Plan

also provides policies related to the conversion of employment lands including specific criteria which

must be addressed during a municipal comprehensive review.



Employment land planning is also directed through policies in Halton Region’s Official Plan. Regional

Official Plan Amendment 38 (ROPA38) includes population and employment forecasts to the year 2031,

on which the current land budget is based and through which development opportunities are planned.

Population Employment

Halton Region, 2031 780,000 390,000

Town of Milton, 2031 238,000 114,000

The in-effect Town of Milton Official Plan (OP 1997) was most recently consolidated in August 2008. To

respond to changes in both provincial planning legislation and regional planning policy related to growth

management and intensification, Official Plan Amendment 31 (OPA 31) was adopted by Council in 2010.

It is currently awaiting Regional approval. OPA 31 includes policies related to employment intensification,

employment conversion, mixed use areas, general employment areas and institutional areas that align

with the policy objectives of the Growth Plan and ROPA 38.

Subsequently in 2014, the Town of Milton conducted an initial study to inform its municipal

comprehensive review process with respect to planning for employment and commercial lands. The

report looked at the employment, commercial and retail land needs for the Town and provided

recommended policies, a detailed analysis of employment land supply and an evaluation of commercial

policies.

As part of the Phase 1 report, to examine possible approaches and options for employment planning, an

understanding of other municipal practices was important. The Official Plans of five municipalities, Ajax,

Hamilton, Oakville, Toronto and Vaughan, were evaluated to consider what employment land use

designations have been applied, what are the permitted uses and policies under these designations, what

types of specific policies, if any, addressed employment supportive and related uses, intensification of

employment uses, conversion of uses and how are older employment areas protected.

1.2 SURVEY RESULTS AND ADDITIONAL STAKEHOLDER INPUT

SURVEY RESULTS

At the conclusion of the Phase 1 study, an online survey was made available to solicit public opinion on

employment land planning. A series of statements about employment land planning and development

were provided and respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement based on an

intensity scale of (1) being strongly disagree and (5) being strongly agree. The majority of the

respondents both lived and worked in the Town. The responses are generally summarized as follows:

Statement Response



Older industrial areas should continue to be protected to maintain

existing businesses.

Respondents were split on

this response.

Older industrial areas should be phased out and redeveloped over

time.

The majority of respondents

agreed with this statement.

Logistics and warehousing uses are important to Milton’s economy

and should continue to be accommodated.

Responses were split on this

statement.

Areas should be planned for new businesses and uses with a

greater number of employees.

This statement was strongly

agreed to by respondents.

New employment areas in Milton should include supportive uses

such as banks and restaurants.

Respondents also strongly

agreed with this statement.

New employment areas should be located in proximity to

residential, institutional and commercial uses.

Respondents strongly agreed

with this statement.

Planning policies should protect employment land for the long

term.



Planning policies should be flexible to be able to respond to the

market to permit a range of businesses and uses in employment

areas.



Planning policies should be specific to permit certain types of uses

and restrict others.



Planning policies should focus on ways to maintain and create jobs

and less on protection of land.

Respondents agreed with this

statement.

The survey responses reflect a general consensus for providing some flexibility in planning for

employment lands. While there was strong agreement with protecting employment lands there is also a

recognition that older employment areas evolve over time and planning should respond to the market

rather than restricting opportunities through rigid policies.

ADDITIONAL STAKEHOLDER INPUT

Additional stakeholder input was received through written submissions from local landowners and from

the public. A summary of these submissions is provided in Appendix A Employment Growth Forecast &

Needs.

2.0 ASSESSMENT OF MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT

AREAS

Building on the profile of employment areas provided in the Phase 1 background report, this section

provides an assessment of Milton’s employment areas through a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,

and constrains (S.W.O.C.) analysis.



2.1 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EMPLOYMENT AREAS

Employment areas require good access to regional transportation networks and trade corridors, on-site

infrastructure including roadways and utilities, a critical mass and available zoned, shovel-ready land.

Access to other major transportation infrastructure, such as airports, regional transit, rail lines,

intermodal facilities and ports, is also critical; however, the need and priority of such regional

infrastructure varies depending on the nature of the employment area. Employment areas are typically

located on flat to slightly rolling topography, preferably where large tracts of land can be assembled in

areas with minimal environmental constraints. Roadways within employment areas tend to be laid out

in a grid system to optimize circulation and parcel configuration. Parcels are typically square or

rectangular in shape to optimize site design. Many of these attributes help to optimize the end-users’

speed to market, while minimizing development costs and project risk.

The specific attributes that are required for an employment area to be successful are largely based on the

intended function and designations. These attributes are discussed in more detail below, with regard to

industrial areas and business parks.

INDUSTRIAL AREAS

Industrial areas within southern Ontario typically offer a mix of general and light industrial uses and

primarily accommodate employment sectors related to manufacturing, utilities, wholesale trade,

distribution and warehousing, transportation, as well as employment-supportive uses (i.e. ancillary

commercial service uses). These areas typically offer the following physical requirements:

Access – proximity to controlled access highways (i.e. Highway 401) is critical for the success of

general industrial parks that have a significant degree of manufacturing, wholesale trade and

warehousing, distribution and/or other industrial uses. These parks do not necessarily have to

be adjacent to a controlled access highway but must be in proximity and easily accessible via

major arterials that pass through limited residential or mixed-use commercial area(s).

Transportation and Infrastructure – over the past several decades, increased globalization of

the industrial economy has placed increasing importance on the growing interdependence of

domestic companies and their suppliers. As a result, there is an increasing trend for distribution

activities to agglomerate to take advantage of shared access to regional infrastructure such as

rail lines, intermodal facilities, and direct links to major highways via specialized road links.

Critical Mass – size is vital to ensure a wide selection/flexibility of land options and parks must

include a sufficient supply of large parcels. As a minimum, 80 Ha (200 acres) is a suitable size for

a park, in order to reach the critical mass needed to provide reasonable presence, choice and

economies of scale. However, newer industrial areas focused on warehousing and

transportation tend to be larger, in excess of 200 ha (500 acres).



Parcel Size – while demand in the Town of Milton is anticipated to continue for medium- to

large-scale, land-extensive warehousing and distribution facilities (i.e. >200,000 sq.ft.), the

future needs of the logistics sector in Milton are anticipated to vary in terms of building and site

size. For smaller to mid-size facilities (i.e. <200,000 sq.ft.), manufacturing/assembly,

distribution and retailing are often integrated within facilities.

Location – location must provide efficient and effective vehicular access and circulation,

particularly for heavy truck traffic, with a minimum of two access points to enter/exit the

industrial area;

Land Use Compatibility – buffering and separation of uses are important for general industrial

areas in order to minimize noise, truck traffic, safety, and air pollution to neighbouring

residential and other sensitive land uses.

Market Choice – parcel size and configuration needs to be conducive for a wide range of

industrial land uses, especially for land extensive industrial uses.

Competitive Development/Operating Costs – land prices must be competitive, given the

relatively land-extensive nature associated with many uses in industrial areas.

BUSINESS PARKS

Business Parks typically are more oriented towards light industrial and office uses and have a more

prestige character than general industrial areas. Key physical attributes of successful business parks

include the following:

Access – access and exposure/visibility to controlled access highways or major arterial

roadways are critical for business parks, particularly for office uses.

Critical Mass – size is less important relative to general industrial areas; however, these areas

must be generally large enough to foster a sense of place within a well-defined precinct and

allow for on-site amenities.

Minimal Land Use Buffers – are typically required for business parks, as well as parks oriented

towards research and technology.

Land Use Compatibility – opportunities exist to integrate light industrial, commercial and

surrounding residential/mixed-use areas with minimal buffering, providing that potential land-

use conflicts are addressed. As discussed in the Phase 1 report, the notion of business park

development is evolving to include newer employment concepts geared towards research and

innovation. Innovation districts are typically comprised of a mix of land uses, including

institutional anchors (i.e. hospitals, universities), office, R&D facilities, local retail and

residential.

Employment-Supportive Uses – are often clustered at major intersections, gateway locations,

or are located within transition areas between light industrial and commercial and/or residential

areas.



Character – park character is typically enhanced through high quality building design,

streetscapes and attractive landscaping, which can be implemented through site controls and

design guidelines.

2.2 DESIGNATED AND PLANNED EMPLOYMENT AREAS

Figure 2-1: Developed and Vacant Designated Employment Lands in Milton

2.2.1 MILTON 401 INDUSTRIAL AND BUSINESS PARK

The Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park is comprised of lands located on the both sides of Highway

401, both sides of Highway 25 and east to James Snow Parkway. Most of the land parcels have been

developed into distribution/logistics, manufacturing and transportation, and office uses. Approximately

30% of the developable lands in the serviced business park are currently vacant.



2.2.2 DERRY GREEN CORPORATE BUSINESS PARK

The Derry Green Corporate Business Park encompasses unbuilt employment lands located south of

Highway 401 between James Snow Parkway and Sixth Line and extending down towards Britannia Road.

Within the park, 423 net ha (1,045 net acres) are designated primarily as Business Park with a pocket of

an area designated as industrial. Servicing of the park is underway and is planned to be completed for

the development of the Menkes and Orlando sites by the end of 2016. Designated employment lands are

anticipated to be shovel-ready and available for development in 2017.

Figure 2-2: Town of Milton Derry Green Corporate Business Park Land Use Plan

While the park is expected to accommodate the majority of the Town’s employment land development

over the medium term, development within the park is fragmented by the natural heritage system that

transects many of the land parcels. The park also contains “street oriented areas” along the eastern edge

of James Snow Parkway and Derry Road.



2.2.3 MILTON 401 INDUSTRIAL AND BUSINESS PARK EXTENSION LANDS

The Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Extension lands are located northeast of the Milton 401

Industrial and Business Park area. The lands are bounded by James Snow Parkway, 5 Sideroad, CN rail

corridor and natural features near Esquesing Line. These lands are most marketable for

distribution/logistics, transportation, multi-tenant industrial condos and advanced manufacturing. The

lands are part of a larger contiguous Employment Area – the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park

which has a critical mass, has been highly successful and can build on the development activity and

success of the existing park. The lands have excellent access to Highway 401 via James Snow Parkway.

These lands are part of an area specific master plan being completed by Orlando Corporation which will

establish developable areas and is subject to environmental and servicing studies.

2.2.4 TRAFALGAR/DERRY LANDS

The Trafalgar/Derry Lands are part of the Sustainable Halton Lands (SHP) that represents the next

planned area for employment through ROPA 38. The lands are south and east of the Derry Green

Corporate Business Park Secondary Plan area and include the lands along the Trafalgar Road corridor.

The lands have a strong potential to accommodate a broad range of uses and employment sectors

including prestige office, warehousing/distribution and advanced manufacturing. The Trafalgar/Derry

Lands offer excellent access to Highways 401 and 407.

The Trafalgar/Derry Lands however are also strategically positioned to offer an environment with higher

order transit which can provide for a higher intensity of employment land uses and a complete

employment area with a focus around the potential GO station. Similar nodes have been planned and

are now being developed in and around other GO stations across the GTHA. While a mixed community

could take several years to develop, planned opportunities and infrastructure investment could provide

the conditions for a higher density office cluster at this higher order transit hub location. This location is

also unique in that it has both multi-directional highway capacity and a potential GO transit station to

serve the area.

Consideration of a performance based employment area at this location can create certainty for

investment decisions to help secure the future prosperity for the area. The Town has identified through

the MCR work that this area should be a Regional node. It will be important to ensure this area is fully

integrated with the surrounding community and ensure that a mix of uses is permitted to support the

threshold for a complete community onto itself.

The Town has identified a series of studies to be undertaken for this area to help frame future phases of

the Secondary Plan process and inform Milton Phase 4 - South Milton Urban Expansion Area. The

Trafalgar/Derry Secondary Plan process will also informed the phasing of development which will require

co-ordination with Regional servicing. The initial land base analysis will include a subwatershed study as

well as overall consideration for transportation planning and infrastructure support. An area servicing

plan by the Region will also significantly advance the planning for this area.



2.2.5 MILTON EDUCATION VILLAGE

The Milton Education Village (MEV) employment lands are currently the subject of a secondary planning

exercise which is expected to refine the proposed employment area designations. The Secondary Plan

work is currently deferred pending a formal announcement by the Province related to additional funding

for a new university campus. As the proposed site of a university satellite campus, the MEV has the

potential to create a culture of innovation and build synergies between employment uses and the

proposed post-secondary institutions. Further, it offers the potential to provide high-quality

employment opportunities in southwest Milton, an area which traditionally has had limited employment

opportunities.

The MEV represents an area that can be directed through secondary plan policies to provide for a

complete, compact employment area/innovation district. This area can strategically become a

specialized employment node and can leverage increased employment densities through a land use

policy context that provides performance targets to achieve increased employment.

The MEV has the foundation to continue to grow to become a complete employment area with a balance

of institutional, offices and supportive residential uses. The Town’s significant land ownership as well as

a large single owner is also beneficial in providing a range of opportunities.

2.2.6 SOUTHWEST MILTON

Lands immediately to the south of the MEV offer comparable longer-term development opportunities.

Given its locational attributes, the area is well suited for prestige employment uses including office

development to accommodate research and development, professional and technical services and

advanced manufacturing. This area is also planned to serve to support the MEV. Maximizing employment

opportunities on these lands will be important given the commitment to infrastructure and servicing

planned for the area.

CN, which owns the majority of the lands within the area, is proposing the development of a large

intermodal facility on a 177 gross ha site, comprised largely of future employment land, bounded by

Britannia Road to the north, First Line to the east, Tremaine Road to the west, and 2nd Side Road to the

south. The CN intermodal proposal is still the subject of a federal environmental assessment process. The

future status of the intermodal proposal is unknown at this time and represents significant uncertainly as

to the impact on the nature and intensity of uses that are planned within the intermodal area and on the

employment lands within the broader geographic area.

Until decisions are finalized with respect to the intermodal facility proposal, it is premature to assess how

the potential employment urban structure may be affected and to what extent the planned urban

employment lands may be impacted.



2.2.6 FUTURE STRATEGIC EMPLOYMENT AREAS

The Region has designated Future Strategic Employment Areas in Greenfield areas, under Sections

139.6 and 139.7 of ROPA 38, to meet employment land needs beyond the planning horizon of 2031. Parts

of Southwest Milton and Trafalgar/Derry Lands are identified as Future Strategic Employment Area.

Generally, these are lands located near major highway infrastructure the Region has identified for future

development.

The MCR work identified these lands as justified employment lands for the expansion of the urban

boundary. These lands are owned by a limited number of landowners and as such provide for the ability

to coordinate, finance and service large, contiguous parcels at strategic locations. With continued

completion from neighbouring markets, it will be important to facilitate the planning for these lands to

meet Milton’s employment needs. It will also be important to integrate these lands with the surrounding

planned communities through transitional areas.

Figure 2-3: Town of Milton Existing, Planned and Future Strategic Employment Areas



2.3 EMPLOYMENT AREAS

STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES/OPPORTUNITIES/CONSTRAINTS

(S.W.O.C.) ANALYSIS

As part of this study, Milton’s employment areas were reviewed through an S.W.O.C. analysis as

summarized in Figure 2-4. The analysis was based in part on the attributes of successful employment

areas discussed in Section 2.1 with consideration of the following factors:

Physical/economic characteristics, which include character of existing industrial base,

geographic location, continuity and delineation of the industrial area;

Amenities, anchors and catalysts (e.g. universities, hospitals) for development;

Access/circulation, which includes an assessment of the accessibility of each site via road

infrastructure and the visibility of the area to major transportation routes;

Development opportunities, including vacant land supply, available lots on the market, parcel

configuration and mix, servicing and site expandability; and

Range of employment uses that could be accommodated in the employment areas.

Figure 2-4 : Milton’s Employment Areas Analysis

Employment Area Strengths/Opportunities Weaknesses/Challenges

Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park (Designated)

A large, well established employment area of critical mass that is anchored by major industrial businesses.

Park has seen a significant amount of development activity in the past decade.

Direct access/exposure to Highway 401.

Good road circulation via major arterial roadways (James Snow Parkway, Highway 25, Steeles Avenue).

Well suited for a broad range of industrial uses, such as wholesale trade, distribution/logistics, warehousing and manufacturing.

Approaching buildout and a limited supply of site options remaining.

Recent development activity has been focused on large-scale warehousing, which has created vast areas homogeneous industrial built form with limited diversity of uses.

Derry Green Corporate Business Park (Designated)

Large contiguous Employment Area of critical mass.

Expected to significantly increase market choice of employment lands in Milton.

Designed to accommodate wide range of uses including prestige business park, general industrial, office

Southern portion lacks direct access/exposure to Highway 401.




development and employment supportive uses.

Northern half has direct access/exposure to Highway 401.

Direct access via major arterials including James Snow Parkway and Derry Road.

Direct rail access.

Anticipated to be available for development by the end of 2016.

Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Area (Planned)

Contiguous expansion area of existing Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park – forms part of existing park.

Opportunities to build on development activity that has occurred in Milton 401 Industrial Business Park.

Access to Highway 401 via James Snow Parkway.

Lack of direct access/exposure to Highway 401.

Trafalgar/Derry Lands (Planned)

North half has good access to Highways 401.

Proximity to Highway 407.

Direct rail access.

Proximity to Milton CP Expressway Terminal West intermodal facility.

Good access to Highways 401 and 407 via Trafalgar Road and Derry Road.

Opportunities to capitalize on prestige employment development potential.

Located at the only undeveloped Highway 401 interchange within the G.T.A.

Location of possible future GO train station.

Distance of south half of employment area to Highway 401.

Somewhat fragmented developable land areas.

Milton Education Village (Planned)

Includes planned site of satellite university campus.

Potential to build synergies with post-secondary institution.

Potential to develop innovation district accommodating “knowledge-based” sectors.

Access via Tremaine Road.

Potential to create a culture of innovation at the Education Village Research Park.

Lack of access to 400 series highway.

Limited size.




In proximity to large urban expansion area (Boyne).

Potential to expand employment base in southwest Milton.

Southwest Milton (Planned)

Potential to build synergies with Milton Education Village and accommodate a broad range of prestige employment uses.

Proximity to large urban expansion area (Boyne).

Potential to expand employment base in southwest Milton.

Access via Tremaine Road and Britannia Road.

Direct rail access.

Lack of access to 400 series highway.

Fragmented developable land prevents large-scale employment areas of a contiguous nature.

Proposed CN intermodal facility would limit development potential of area with respect to diversity of uses and employment yields.

2.4 INDUSTRY SECTOR REQUIREMENTS

Location requirements of industry can vary considerably depending on the nature of the employment

sector/use. Employment sectors typically situated in employment areas have varying site-specific

requirements. Building on the Phase 1 background report, a number of industrial and commercial

sectors/employment uses are anticipated to experience economic growth on existing and planned

employment areas in the Town of Milton. These sectors include: Advanced Manufacturing; Research and

Development/Life Sciences; Major Office/Professional, Scientific and Technical Services/Business

Services; and Distribution and Logistics. Employment Areas with the physical attributes as summarized

in

Figure 2-5, would be best suited to attract these target employment sectors.

Figure 2-5: Physical Attributes of Employment Areas Required to Attract Target Employment Sectors

Employment Sector/ Land Use

Required Physical Attributes

Advanced Manufacturing Access to 400 series/controlled access highways.

Access to skilled and unskilled labour.

Proximity to markets and related industries.

Proximity to U.S.

Competitive land prices.

Parcel size: 1-4+ Ha.

Buffers from surrounding non-industrial uses.

General or prestige setting.



Employment Sector/ Land Use

Required Physical Attributes

Expansion potential.

Research and Development/Life Sciences Sectors

Access to skilled labour force.

Proximity to related industry cluster (companies and public institutions such as universities and hospitals).

Prestige “campus-like” setting.

Parcel size: 1-2 Ha for standalone building or facility space within multi-tenant incubator/accelerator type building.

Flexible leasing options.

Proximity to high-order transit (regional connectivity).

Access to on-site amenities and proximity to off-site services. Major Office/Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Prestige setting.

Access to skilled labour force.

Access and exposure to 400 series/limited access highway or major arterials.

Access to on-site amenities and proximity to off-site services.

Parcel size: 1-2 Ha.

Proximity to high-order transit (regional connectivity).

Flexible leasing structures and market choice (multi-tenant versus freestanding office, Class A versus Type B office space and multi-tenant industrial condominiums).

Distribution/Logistics Land prices must be competitive, given the relatively land-extensive nature associated.

Sufficient supply of large parcel, as a minimum, 80 Ha (200 acres) is a suitable size, in order to reach the critical mass typically needed.

Parcel size and configuration needs to be conductive to land extensive developments.

Proximity to controlled access non-toll highways (i.e. 400 series/limited access highway).

Proximity to major infrastructure anchors, including transportation intermodal terminals and airports.

Efficient and effective vehicular access and circulation, particularly for heavy truck traffic.

Buffering in order to minimize noise and air pollution to neighbouring residential and other sensitive land uses.

2.5 MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT AREAS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

Based on the evaluation of Milton’s employment areas and the employment sector/ land use

requirements of the target industries, the following conclusions can be made:

Milton’s employment areas generally have good access and exposure to major 400-series

highways and arterial roads which is a key requirement for most sectors;



Major G.T.H.A. transportation infrastructure is located in close proximity to the Town of Milton,

including the Pearson International Airport, CN and CP Intermodal facilities which will continue

to fuel demand for future growth in industrial related sectors;

GO Transit service in Milton provides regional transit connectivity west and east of the Town

which is a major driver for knowledge-based and office sectors;

Milton is anticipated to continue to experience strong growth which will further develop its

labour market. This is critical in attracting development from knowledge-based and office

sectors. In addition, the Town is in close proximity to major labour markets in the west

G.T.H.A.;

Milton has experienced strong growth in the distribution and logistics sector and going forward

this will likely continue given the supply of large parcels with excellent vehicular accessibility.

This includes remaining sites in the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park, within Derry Green

Corporate Business Park and planned employment areas of Trafalgar/Derry Lands and the

Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park areas.

Derry Green Corporate Business Park was planned to accommodate a broader range of

employment uses than the Town has experienced to date. The locational attributes and

connection to supportive uses has not developed and it has proven difficult to attract a broader

mix of uses.

The future development of the Milton Education Village and a possible satellite university

campus will be a major catalyst in the development of an innovation district that will further

support and accommodate the Town’s growth in knowledge-based sectors.

The Southwest Milton lands have strong potential to develop as a prestige employment area

accommodating a broad range of employment uses including advanced manufacturing logistics

and “knowledge-based” sectors.



3.0 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND

EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS

This Chapter presents a long-term employment forecast by major sector for the Town of Milton based

on an assessment of local and regional growth drivers. A corresponding employment needs analysis

associated with a 20-year (2016-2036) and 25-year (2016-2041) planning horizon is also provided.

3.1 REGIONAL GROWTH DRIVERS

As previously discussed in Chapter 2 of the Phase 1 Report, a broad range of regional and local factors

related to economics, demographics and infrastructure is anticipated to drive the rate of future economic

and employment growth throughout the Town of Milton over the longer term. These drivers will not only

affect the rate and magnitude of employment growth but will also influence the form, density and

location of future employment growth on employment lands. The impacts of these regional growth

drivers on future employment growth trends in the Town of Milton are discussed below.

3.1.1 THE TOWN OF MILTON IS WELL POSITIONED TO CAPTURE A GROWING SHARE OF

REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS

As previously discussed, Halton’s economic growth potential is largely tied to the success of the G.T.H.A.

as a whole. Over the next 25 years, the G.T.H.A population and employment base is forecast to steadily

increase, largely driven by the Region’s diverse and competitive employment base. Of the upper/single

tier municipalities in the G.T.H.A., Halton Region is anticipated to experience the highest annual rate of

population and employment between 2011 and 2041. Over this time period, Halton Region’s population

is expected to nearly double, with an increase from 520,000 to 1,000,000. Halton’s employment base is

anticipated to more than double, with an increase of approximately 236,000 jobs from 2011 to 2041.

Recent trends in the regional industrial real estate market indicate that suburban locations such as Milton

are well positioned to capture a growing share of industrial and office development on employment lands

in the future. As the larger urban areas of the West G.T.H.A. (i.e. Mississauga and Brampton in Peel

Region, and Oakville and Burlington in Halton Region) continue to mature and build out, increasing

growth pressure is being placed on G.T.H.A. and G.G.H. “Outer Ring” municipalities which offer

marketable development opportunities on employment lands.

Strategically located within the west G.T.H.A., Milton also has a strong appeal to new businesses and

residents. This appeal is largely attributed to the Town’s geographic location within the G.T.H.A., its

proximity to key regional infrastructure including the Toronto Pearson International Airport (T.P.I.A.),

Highways 401 and 407, regional transit (GO Transit), a large supply of serviceable greenfield employment

land supply, proximity to labour and a number of post-secondary institutions within a 1- to 2-hour radius.

The Town’s western G.T.H.A. location also offers proximity to the U.S. border and access to a number of

major employment markets within Southern Ontario and the U.S.



Over the past decade, a shift in the location of industrial developments occurred in Halton Region.

Industrial development has traditionally been focused in south Halton (i.e. Oakville and Burlington), but

has increasingly migrated north to Milton and Halton Hills. To date, office development in Milton has

been relatively limited; however, this is expected to gradually change over the long term, as new

greenfield employment land supply opportunities in Milton become available for development, such as

Derry Green Corporate Business Park.

3.1.2 THE TOWN OF MILTON IS FORECAST TO ACCOMMODATE AN INCREASING SHARE

OF FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN HALTON REGION

Figure 3-1 summarizes historical and forecast employment for the Town of Milton as a percentage share

of the total employment within Halton Region between 2011 and 2041. As shown, between 2011 and

2016 Milton’s share of total employment within Halton Region has gradually increased from 14% to 15%.

It is anticipated that the Town’s share of the total employment growth within Halton Region will increase

significantly over the forecast period, increasing to 26% by 2031 and 32% by 2041. Of the Region’s area

municipalities, Milton is expected to account for the largest share of Halton Region’s employment growth

over the 2016 to 2041 forecast period. The Town’s employment forecast is discussed in further detail in

section 3.2

Figure 3-1: Town of Milton’s Share of Halton Region Employment Base, 2011 to 2041

14% 15% 17% 21% 26%32%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2041

Year

Milton Rest of Halton Region

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.Note: Share analysis based on Alternative Forecast for Milton



3.2 TOWN OF MILTON LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT FORECAST

Building on the updated economic and employment analysis carried out as part of the Phase 1

Employment Lands Review Report and the regional growth drivers summarized above, two long-term

employment forecasts – Reference Scenario and Alternative Scenario – were prepared for Milton. The

Alternative Scenario forms the basis for the employment land needs analysis presented herein.

3.2.1 EMPLOYMENT FORECAST SCENARIOS

Employment forecasts under the Reference and Alternative Scenarios are presented in Figure 3-2. The

Reference Scenario targets the 2031 employment forecast in accordance the Halton Region 2011 Best

Planning Estimates (B.P.E.). The 2011 Halton Region B.P.E. forecasts a total of 114,300 jobs within the

Town of Milton by 2031. The Alternative Scenario reflects employment market trends and is not tied to

the 2011 Halton Region B.P.E. 2031 employment forecast.

Under the Reference Scenario, the Town’s employment base is forecast to reach 114,000 by 2031 and

162,000 by 2041. This is compared to 103,000 by 2031 and 151,000 by 2041 under the Alternative

Scenario. The difference in incremental employment growth between the two scenarios is entirely within

the 2016 to 2031 timeframe (a difference of 11,000 jobs). The incremental employment growth between

2031 and 2041 is the same under both scenarios. Both employment forecasts are based on the

assumption that Milton’s population base will increase from 109,000 persons in 20163 to 234,600 persons

by 2031 and approximately 369,000 persons by 2041.4

3 As estimated by Watson & Associates. Population figures include Census undercount of approximately 4%. 4 Population forecast to 2031 is in accordance with Halton Region Best Planning Estimates. 2041 population forecast prepared by Watson &

Associates. Population figures include Census undercount of approximately 4%.



Figure 3-2: Town of Milton Employment Forecast – Reference vs. Alternative Scenario

Figure 3-3 summarizes the Alternative Scenario by major employment sector from 2016 to 2041 in

contrast to the Reference Scenario. Approximately half (5,600 jobs) the employment reduction assumed

in the Alternative Employment Scenario can be attributed to the industrial sector. Moderately lower

employment growth is also assumed in the commercial non-retail sector (3,900 fewer jobs) as a result of

lower office employment growth. No Fixed Place of Work employment has also been reduced by 1,450

jobs, reflecting the reduction in industrial employment prospects.

Figure 3-3: Employment Growth by Sector – Reference vs. Alternative Forecast

50,600

72,500

103,300

128,750

151,000

54,550

81,000

114,250

139,700

161,950

22,17527,600

32,62538,650

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Tota

l E

mp

loym

ent

Year

Alternative Forecast Reference Forecast

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Alternative

Scenario

Reference

ScenarioAbsolute %

Industrial 27,200 32,800 -5,600 -17%

Commercial Retail 24,875 24,875 0 0%

Commercial Non-Retail 17,950 21,850 -3,900 -18%

Institutional 18,300 18,300 0 0%

No Fixed Place of Work 13,625 15,075 -1,450 -10%

Work at Home 10,400 10,400 0 0%

Total 112,350 123,300 -10,950 -9%


Employment Growth, 2016-2041 Difference



In accordance with our review of the Town’s existing employment base, and a comprehensive review of

forecast employment growth potential by sector and in the broader regional context, the Consultant

Team has adopted the Alternative Employment Scenario as the basis for estimating future employment

land demand and land needs over the planning horizon.

The following presents future employment growth in five-year increments by major employment sector

over the 2016 to 2041 period based on the present (i.e. Alternative Scenario) employment forecast.

3.2.2 TOWN OF MILTON FUTURE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2016 TO 2041

As shown in Figure 3-4, Milton’s employment base is forecast to increase from 38,650 in 2016 to 103,300

in 2031, and 151,000 by 2041. Over the forecast period, Milton’s employment base is expected to expand

by approximately 112,000, nearly a four-fold increase from its current base (i.e. year 2016). This

represents an average annual employment growth rate of 5.6% per year. Figure 3-5 provides a more

detailed summary of the long-term employment forecast by major employment sector.

Figure 3-4: Town of Milton Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041

Figure 3-5: Town of Milton Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2016 to 2041

Incremental employment growth in five-year increments is illustrated in Figure 3-6. Forecast

employment growth over the 2016 to 2041 period will be driven by steady population growth and

38,650

50,600

72,500

103,300

128,750

151,000

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

To

tal E

mp

loy

me

nt

Year


2016 700 4,000 12,400 9,450 1,950 5,675 4,475 38,650

2021 700 5,275 15,075 12,775 2,650 7,900 6,225 50,600

2026 700 7,625 19,800 17,900 6,175 11,625 8,675 72,500

2031 700 10,100 27,700 23,925 12,050 16,425 12,400 103,300

2036 700 12,425 33,700 29,400 16,100 20,600 15,825 128,750

2041 700 14,400 39,600 34,325 19,900 23,975 18,100 151,000

2016-2041 0 10,400 27,200 24,875 17,950 18,300 13,625 112,350


Year Primary Work at Home IndustrialCommercial

RetailInstitutional NFPOW

1 TotalCommercial

Non Retail



continued regional and local growth prospects for export-based sectors, which are expected to drive the

industrial and commercial office sector. In accordance with the regional growth drivers discussed in

section 3.1, the amount and rate of employment growth is forecast to steadily increase relative to recent

trends (i.e. the past 10 years) between 2016 and 2031. Absolute employment growth levels and

employment growth rates are forecast to peak during the 2026 to 2031 period, largely as a result of

relatively slower employment growth anticipated for the G.T.H.A. and Halton Region as a whole during

this time period. Slower regional population and employment growth during the post-2031 period is

largely due to the aging of the regional population and labour force base.

Figure 3-6: Town of Milton Employment Forecast Incremental Growth, 2016 to 2041

Employment growth over the 2016 to 2041 forecast period is expected across a wide range of sectors,

driven by the continued diversification of the Town’s economic base and strong local population growth.

As summarized in Figure 3-7 below, future employment growth is anticipated to be relatively well

balanced across all major employment sectors.

11,950

21,900

30,800

25,450

22,250

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2031-2036 2036-2041

Em

plo

ym

ent G

row

th

Time Period

Work at Home No Fixed Place of Work Institutional Commercial Retail Commercial Non Retail Industrial




Figure 3-7: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Growth by Sector, 2016 to 2041

A more detailed breakdown of anticipated employment growth by sub-sector is provided below.

PRIMARY EMPLOYMENT

Primary industries (i.e. agriculture and other resource-based employment) comprise a relatively small

proportion of Milton’s employment base (approximately 0.2% in 2016). This sector is not anticipated to

experience any employment growth over the 2016 to 2041 forecast period.

INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT

Over the forecast period, Milton’s industrial employment base is expected to increase from 12,400 in

2016 to 39,600 in 2041, an increase of 27,200 over the period. Over the next decade, it is anticipated that

development within the industrial sector will gradually increase, driven by employment growth, largely

within industrial sectors related to transportation and warehousing, utilities, construction and advanced

manufacturing. The rate of industrial growth is expected to accelerate relative to historical levels, largely

as a result of increased greenfield employment land supply opportunities within the Town (i.e. Derry

Green Corporate Business Park) combined with the continued recovery of the regional export-based

economy since the global economic downturn of 2008/2009.

A large share of future industrial employment growth is expected to be driven by the Goods Movement

sector, which includes transportation activities as well as warehousing, storage and logistics companies

Industrial24%

Commercial Retail

22%

Commercial Non-Retail

16%

Institutional17%

No Fixed Place of

Work12%

Work at Home

9%




and transportation support activities (including numerous public agencies, private firms and individual

shippers and receivers). This sector is accommodated in a range of industrial building typologies

reflecting the diverse sub-sectors that comprise the sector. This includes uses such as distribution

centres, warehouses, fulfillment centres, delivery depots, logistics hubs, corporate office buildings of

major logistics companies, trucking terminals, multi-tenant warehouses and terminals, cold storage

buildings and transportation yards. Increased outsourcing of manufacturing production to emerging

global markets continues to drive the need for new consolidated, land extensive warehousing facilities

to store and manage the distribution of goods produced both locally and imported from abroad. This

continues to drive demand for increasingly larger warehousing facilities, typically located in

competitively priced greenfield locations across the west/north G.T.H.A. As previously identified in the

Phase 1 Report, Milton has a strong and growing presence in the Goods Movement sector. Future

employment growth prospects across the west G.T.H.A. in this sector are expected to be a major driver

of future employment land needs in Milton.

Construction also represents a key industrial growth sector for the Town. As previously discussed in the

Phase 1 report, this sector has represented the Town’s fastest growing industrial sector over the past 10

years. This sector is anticipated to continue to experience strong employment growth driven by future

residential and non-residential development activity identified for the Town and surrounding region.

As previously discussed in the Phase 1 Report, Milton has a strong concentration of mature industry

clusters in the manufacturing sector. This includes a broad range of manufacturing sectors related to

metals, aerospace, automotive, plastics, chemical products and processed foods. While these industry

clusters are anticipated to experience limited growth, they remain an important component of the

economic base and offer future growth opportunities. Looking forward, small to medium-scale

manufacturing sectors which are capital/technology intensive are anticipated to offer the greatest

growth opportunities within the Town’s manufacturing sector.

COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT

The commercial sector represents the largest employment growth sector in Milton. This sector is

anticipated to increase by 42,800 jobs over the 2016 to 2041 period, comprising approximately 38% of

total employment growth. Commercial employment growth within retail and non-retail (i.e. office)

employment sectors is anticipated to be relatively well balanced. Key trends include:

Commercial Retail Employment – Approximately 58% (24,875 jobs) of commercial employment

growth over the forecast period is anticipated to be directly related to population-related

employment sectors, including retail, personal services and accommodation/food services,

finance and insurance and information and cultural industries (i.e. commercial retail

employment). Employment in the commercial retail sector is expected to increase from 9,450 in

2016 to 34,325 in 2041. Strong growth in retail employment is expected to be largely driven by

steady long-term population growth forecast for the Town.

Commercial Non-Retail Employment – Approximately 42% (17,950 jobs) of commercial

employment growth is anticipated to be within the non-retail sector. Key commercial non-retail



employment growth sectors include business services, professional, scientific and technical

services and research and development. These sectors are typically accommodated within

standalone and multi-tenant office buildings. Commercial non-retail employment is forecast to

increase from 1,950 in 2016 to 19,900 in 2041. As previously discussed in the Phase 1 Report, the

shifting regional economic structure towards the knowledge-based and creative class economy

is anticipated to be a key driver of the Town’s commercial non-retail employment sector.

INSTITUTIONAL EMPLOYMENT

Milton is anticipated to experience relatively strong employment growth in the institutional sector,

largely driven by the need for increased health services, higher education (including the Milton Education

Village) and other institutional facilities (i.e. cultural, religious, schools) associated with the strong

forecast population growth. Institutional employment growth is forecast to increase from 5,675 in 2016

to 23,975 in 2041, an increase of 18,300.

WORK-AT-HOME EMPLOYMENT

Over the next 25 years, Milton’s work-at-home employment is forecast to increase by 10,400, driven by

increased opportunities related to telecommuting and potential work schedule flexibility, most notably

in knowledge-based employment sectors.

NO FIXED PLACE OF WORK

A significant share of Milton’s employment has no fixed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.). Statistics Canada

defines N.F.P.O.W. employment as “persons who do not go from home to the same work place location

at the beginning of each shift.”5 Such persons include building and landscape contractors, travelling

salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc. This employment category is largely comprised of jobs in

construction (i.e. building and landscape contractors), transportation (i.e. truck drivers), retail (i.e.

travelling salespeople) and health and social services (i.e. home care, health and social workers). For the

Town of Milton, N.F.P.O.W. employment is expected to steadily increase from 4,475 in 2016 to 18,100 in

2041, an increase of 13,625.

3.3 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS FORECAST APPROACH

Building on the long-term employment forecast presented in section 3.2, anticipated employment land

need requirements have been identified based on consideration of the following:

The estimated share of employment growth on employment lands by major employment

sector (industrial, commercial, institutional);

Existing and forecast density (i.e. jobs/net hectare) of employment on employment lands;

5 Statistics Canada. 2011 Census Dictionary.



Historical and forecast industrial land employment absorption by employment type (i.e.

general vs. prestige) and sector (i.e. manufacturing, warehousing and distribution, office

commercial, etc.); and

The amount of long-term net employment lands currently designated for employment uses but

currently not developed (vacant) within the Town of Milton.

3.4 EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS

Forecast employment land demand for the Town of Milton is ultimately driven by the share of future

growth of employment on employment lands and the anticipated density of new development. As such,

long-term employment land demand in the Town of Milton has been determined through the

consideration of the following:

WORK-AT-HOME EMPLOYMENT AND NO FIXED PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT

As identified in section 3.2, forecast employment growth has been categorized into five broad categories,

including primary, industrial, commercial retail, commercial non-retail and institutional. These

categories have been aggregated from specific employment sub-classifications based on the North

American Industrial Classification (NAIC) system. As a first step, all estimated “work-at-home”

employees have been excluded from the employment land needs analysis, as these employees do not

require land in the Town’s designated employment areas. “No fixed place of work employees,” e.g.

landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc., are also excluded from

the employment on employment lands forecast. Similar to work-at-home employees, these employees

are not anticipated to have an impact on long-term employment land needs in Milton.

AMOUNT OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR TO BE ACCOMMODATED ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS

As previously identified, employment lands continue to be a focus for industrial uses, but increasingly

include office, certain institutional and other employment supportive land uses (i.e. ancillary/accessory

retail).

The forecast breakdown of employment growth by major sector on employment lands for the Town of

Milton, as summarized in Figure 3-8, has been derived based on a review of the following:

A spatial analysis of existing local businesses in employment areas:

A review of recent development trends in Milton’s employment areas; and

A review of permitted uses on employment lands within the Town of Milton.



Figure 3-8: Town of Milton Proportion of 2016 to 2041 Employment Growth on Employment Lands by Sector

Figure 3-9 summarizes forecast employment on employment lands over the short-term and long-term

forecast periods, based on the assumed allocation of growth on employment lands assigned by major

employment sector discussed above. Over the 2016 to 2041 period, Milton’s employment lands are

anticipated to accommodate 44% of the Town’s total employment growth, totaling approximately

49,000 jobs.

Figure 3-9: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Growth on Employment Lands, 2016 to 2041

ACCOMMODATION OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH THROUGH INTENSIFICATION

It is recognized that a portion of forecast employment on employment lands growth will be

accommodated through intensification. Over the 2016 to 2041 period, an estimated 5% of employment

growth is expected to be accommodated through intensification. It is anticipated that the majority of

this intensification will be accommodated through infill and expansion of existing developed properties

(discussed in Section 5). Over the past five years, moderate expansion activity within developed

employment areas has occurred and this is expected to continue over the longer term as the Town

continues to grow and mature and employment land prices continue to appreciate. To evaluate the

Town’s ability to meet this target, however, the Town should monitor intensification development in

employment areas on a go-forward basis.

Employment Sector

Percentage of Total

Town Employment on

Employment Lands

Industrial 99%

Commercial-Retail 20%

Commercial - Non-Retail 80%

Institutional 15%


2016-2021 2016-2026 2016-2031 2016-2036 2016-2041

Primary 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Work at Home 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Industrial 2,640 7,320 15,145 21,085 26,915 99%

Commercial-Retail 665 1,690 2,895 3,990 4,975 20%

Commercial - Non-Retail 560 3,385 8,095 11,330 14,375 80%

Institutional 335 890 1,610 2,240 2,745 15%

NFPOW 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Total 4,200 13,285 27,745 38,645 49,010 44%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Numbers may not add precisely due to rounding.

Percent on

Employment

Lands

(2016-2041)

Employment Type

Employment Growth on Employment Lands



FORECAST EMPLOYMENT DENSITY ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS

As previously discussed in the Phase 1 Report, the average employment density on employment lands in

Milton is 17 jobs per net ha (7 jobs per net acre); however, average employment densities on employment

lands in the past decade in Milton have declined to 16 jobs per net ha (6 jobs per net acre). This relatively

low employment land density in Milton is strongly influenced by the large share of development in the

warehousing/logistics and transportation sector which tends to be characterized by large, land extensive

uses with relatively low employment yields.

Despite the downward impacts of the Goods Movement sector on average employment density levels

on employment lands in Milton, there are a number of future trends which are expected to have a positive

impact on average employment density levels in Milton as the Town’s industrial market continues to

mature over time. These include:

An increasing share of “knowledge-based” employment – intensive in human capital

characterized by high employment densities;

Steady forecast employment growth in the commercial office sector which is typically

associated with significantly higher employment densities relative to industrial uses;

An increasing share of employment-supportive uses on employment lands which typically have

higher employment densities than industrial uses;

A gradual decline in the future share of large-scale developments in the wholesale trade and

transportation/logistics sector, replaced in part with an increasing share of smaller standalone

and multi-tenant uses which have moderately higher employment densities. This trend is

expected to be driven by both upward pressure on employment land prices in Milton and

diminishing land supply opportunities for land extensive employment sites over the long term.

In accordance with the above-mentioned factors, it is foreseeable that future densities on employment

lands in Milton will gradually increase relative to existing conditions and recent development activity. As

summarized in Figure 3-10, a forecast employment land density of 21 jobs per net ha (9 jobs per net acre)

is assumed over the next five years with a gradual increase to 32 jobs per net ha (13 jobs per net ha) over

the longer 2016 to 2041 forecast period.



Figure 3-10: Town of Milton Target Employment Density

3.5 EMPLOYMENT LAND DEMAND

Figure 3-11 summarizes forecast demand for employment lands from 2016 to 2041 in five-year

increments in accordance with the assumptions developed in section 3.4. Forecast employment land

demand for the 20-year period is also provided. Key observations include:

Over the 2016 to 2041 planning horizon, Milton is forecast to add a total of approximately

49,010 jobs on employment lands of which 2,450 (5%) are anticipated to be accommodated

through intensification and 46,560 are expected to be accommodated on vacant employment

lands. Over the 2016 to 2036 period, 36,715 jobs are forecast to be accommodated on vacant

employment lands;

Milton is forecast to absorb an annual average of 59 net ha (146 net acres) of employment land

per year over the 2016 to 2041 period, significantly higher than historical trends;

Over the 2016 to 2036 and 2016 to 2041 periods, the total employment land demand is forecast

to total 1,196 net ha (2,956 net acres) and 1,478 net ha (3,651 net acres), respectively;6 and

Average annual absorption rates are forecast to increase over the forecast period, peaking over

the 2026 to 2031 period. Employment land absorption is expected to decline slightly thereafter

(post 2031), largely as a result of a continued increase in employment density and a marginal

slowdown in employment growth on employment lands due in part to the aging regional labour

force.

6 Total employment land demand for 2016 to 2036 is based on 60 net ha per year X 20 years = 1,196 net ha (148 net acres per year X 20 years =

2,956 net acres). Total employment land demand for 2016 to 2041 is based on 59 net ha per year X 20 years = 1,478 net ha (146 net acres per

year X 20 years = 3,651 net acres).

Jobs per net

Acre

Jobs per net

Ha

2016-2021 8 21

2021-2026 12 29

2026-2031 14 34

2031-2036 14 34

2036-2041 14 35

2016-2036 12 31

2016-2041 13 32


Period

Employment Density



Figure 3-11: Town of Milton Forecast Employment Land Demand, 2016 to 2041

3.6 EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS TO 2036 AND 2041

Figure 3-12 summarizes forecast employment land need for the Town of Milton over the 2016 to 2036

and 2016 to 2041 planning horizons. In accordance with the existing supply of developable designated

vacant employment lands (i.e. 462 net ha or 1,142 net acres) versus long-term demand, Milton does not

have a sufficient supply of designated employment lands to meet long-term needs to 2036 or 2041. As

of 2036, a net deficit of 734 net ha (1,813 net acres) has been identified. By 2041, this deficit is expected

to expand to 1,016 net ha (2,510 net acres). With the strong employment land demand forecast over the

next decade and the relatively limited supply of designated employment lands, it is anticipated that the

Town will have a shortfall of vacant designated employment land within the next decade (2016 to 2026).

Figure 3-12: Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated Employment Land Supply

Based on the land needs analysis completed, a minimum of 734 net ha (1,813 net acres) and 1,016 net ha

(2,510 net acres) of additional designated vacant employment land is required to accommodate forecast

employment growth to 2036 and 2041, respectively. The identified net land need does not reflect site-

specific takeouts, including open space, arterial roads/rail, stormwater ponds and easements. Based on

a review of the Town’s existing occupied employment areas, a net to gross ratio of 80% is recommended.

Gross lands do not include provincially significant environmental features as defined in Section 2.2.7.3 of

the Growth Plan.

Jobs/ net

Acre

Jobs/ net

HaNet Acres Net Ha Net Acres Net Ha

2016-2021 4,200 210 3,990 8 21 469 190 94 38

2016-2026 13,285 665 12,620 10 26 1,205 488 120 49

2016-2031 27,745 1,385 26,360 12 30 2,203 892 147 59

2016-2036 38,645 1,930 36,715 12 31 2,956 1,196 148 60

2016-2041 49,010 2,450 46,560 13 32 3,651 1,478 146 59


1. Assumes 5% of employment will be accommodated through intensification

Growth

Period

Total

Employment

on

Employment

Lands

Intensification

on

Employment

Lands1

Total

Employment

on

Employment

Lands

Adjusted for

Intensification

Employment DensityTotal Employment

Land Demand

Annual Employment

Land Absorption

2016-2021 2016-2026 2016-2031 2016-2036 2016-2041

Net Employment Land Demand (Ha) 190 488 892 1,196 1,478

Net Employment Land Supply

(Designated) (Ha)462 462 462 462 462

Net Employment Land

Surplus/ (Shortfall) (Ha)272 (26) (430) (734) (1,016)


Time Period



The following section explores options for designating additional employment lands within the Town and

their required timing/phasing.

3.7 OPTIONS TO DESIGNATE FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LANDS

As previously discussed, Milton has a number of Employment Growth Areas which the Region and the

Town have proposed to be designated for employment uses after 2021. This includes lands within the

Milton Education Village, Southwest Milton (CN Lands), Trafalgar/Derry Lands and Milton 401 Industrial

and Business Park Expansion Area lands.

Based on the employment land needs analysis presented in Figure 3-13, the Town’s Planned Employment

Growth Area lands are expected to be needed in their entirety within the 20-year planning horizon. The

Milton Education Village lands are currently in a secondary planning process and are anticipated to be

available for development within the required time frame. Planning for employment uses within the

Trafalgar/Derry Lands, Southwest Milton and the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park Extension

lands, however, will need to commence in the short term to ensure they are available over the next

decade.

Figure 3-13: Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated and Planned Growth Areas Employment Land Supply

Over the longer term (post-2031), the Town will need an additional 209 net ha (516 net acres) and 491

net ha (1,213 net acres) of employment land, beyond the supply of designated and planned Employment

Growth Areas identified, to satisfy demand to 2036 and 2041, respectively, as presented in Figure 3-13.

This will require designating approximately 35% of the Town’s inventory of Future Strategic Employment

Areas (1,400 gross ha) to meet demand to 2041. It is recommended that the subject lands be those in

closest proximity to Highways 401 and 407 and the Trafalgar/Derry Lands are identified as priority areas.7

7 The identified net land need does not reflect site-specific takeouts, including open space, arterial roads/rail, stormwater ponds and easements.

Based on our analysis of the Town’s existing occupied employment areas, a net to gross ratio of 80% is recommended. Gross lands do not include

provincially significant environmental features as defined in Section 2.2.7.3 of the Growth Plan.

2016-2021 2016-2026 2016-2031 2016-2036 2016-2041

Net Employment Land Demand (Ha) 190 488 892 1,196 1,478

Net Employment Land Supply

(Designated + Planned Growth Areas)

(Ha)

987 987 987 987 987

Net Employment Land

Surplus/ (Shortfall) (Ha)797 499 95 (209) (491)


Time Period



Figure 3-14: Town of Milton Employment Land Needs, 2016 to 2041



3.8 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED CN INTERMODAL PROJECT

ON MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS

As previously discussed, southwest Milton contains a significant share of the Town’s future employment

lands. The area contains approximately 37% and 43% of the Town’s supply of Planned Employment Areas

and Future Strategic Employment Areas, respectively. Given its locational attributes and potential

synergies with the neighbouring Milton Education Village, the area is well suited for prestige

employment uses, including office development, to accommodate research and development,

professional and technical services as well as advanced manufacturing. As such, the Town is planning for

the area to achieve relatively high land utilization and employment yields

As discussed in the Phase 1 Report, CN owns a large share of the Planned Employment Areas and Future

Strategic Employment Areas within southwest Milton. CN’s land holdings cover an area of 457 gross ha

(1,129 gross acres), which includes 84 gross ha (208 gross acres) of Planned Employment lands and 167

ha (413 gross acres) of Future Strategic Employment Areas. CN is proposing the development of a large

intermodal facility on the site. Initial concept plans provided by CN indicate that 84 gross ha (208 gross

acres) of the Planned Employment lands, and upwards of 48 gross ha (119 gross acres) of the Future

Strategic Employment lands, would be utilized for the intermodal facility.8 This represents approximately

12% and 3% of the Town’s supply of Planned Employment and Future Strategic Employment lands,

respectively. By its nature the intermodal facility, characterized by a rail yard and transfer facilities, is

expected to accommodate limited employment and achieve relatively low employment densities.

The impact of the proposed CN intermodal facility would likely have a significant influence on the built

form and sectors accommodated on the remaining Planned Employment Areas and Future Strategic

Employment Areas within southwest Milton. It is anticipated that the development of an intermodal

facility in Milton would be the catalyst for the development of an industry cluster centered around the

transportation/logistics sector, accommodating sectors with employment densities and employment

yields lower than what the Town is envisioning for this area.

The CN intermodal facility proposal raises a number of challenges for the Town in its ability to meet

future employment land needs. First, the intermodal facility would remove a notable share of Planned

Employment lands from the Town’s employment land supply inventory. This would exacerbate the

shortfall in employment land supply identified in Figure 3-13 and require the Town to identify additional

Future Strategic Employment Areas to be designated within the long-term planning horizon. Secondly,

the anticipated industrial uses that would likely be accommodated within the remaining future

employment lands in southwest Milton would likely generate lower employment densities than what is

envisioned for the area. This would make it more challenging for the Town to meet its employment

density targets and accommodate future employment growth within the additional employment lands

identified. It is recommended that, should formal plans for the CN intermodal facility be finalized, a

8 Concept plan encompassing main terminal site and south option.



comprehensive review of the impacts of the proposed facility on the Town’s employment land needs be

assessed through a subsequent study.

4.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND CONVERSION

The Phase 1 study outlined the policies from the PPS, Growth Plan and ROPA 38 that direct when and

how the conversion of employment lands can be considered. OPA 31also reiterates the ROPA 38 policies

used to assess the conversion of employment lands to non-employment uses through a MCR. The Phase

1 report initially identified a number of additional criteria to be considered which reflect the local

economy and local needs of the Town. In addition to the policy considerations, criteria related to

economic vitality, land use compatibility and community benefits were assessed for each site.

The MCR work completed in 2014 by the Town assessed vacant employment land sites where there had

been interest in a conversion by the property owner and select vacant lands where a conversion to a non-

employment use were warranted further consideration from both a land use planning and economic

perspective, based on a set of established evaluation criteria. The MCR also looked at occupied industrial

sites under conversion pressure that could be considered as candidates for conversion.

Two specific sites were evaluated through the MCR process. The Meritor Suspension Systems Company

(MSSC) property and the Bruhm property were both considered for potential conversion to

commercial/mixed use development. The MSSC site is located at 150 Steeles Avenue and is designated

as Business Park Area by OPA 31. The Bruhm site is located in the Derry Green Corporate Business Park

at Highway 401 and James Snow Parkway. The MSSC site was recommended for conversion whereas the

Bruhm site, while considered through the MCR report, is no longer warranted due to pending

development plans.

4.1 ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL SITES

The Town identified the following five sites/areas to be assessed as potential conversion sites:

Former Meritor Suspension Systems Company (MSSC) Site

Bronte Street Corridor from Derry Road to Main Street

Steeles Avenue Corridor

McKinley Lands

Urban Growth Centre, Allendale Campus and E.C. Drury Lands

In addition, a request was made to consider the lands at the southwest corner of the Derry Green

Corporate Business Park. These lands are referred to as the Trinison South lands. As noted, the Bruhm

Lands within Derry Green Corporate Business Park were not given further consideration following the

MCR process in 2014. Figure 5-1 on page 49 illustrates the location of the potential sites for consideration.



In undertaking the assessment of the potential sites for conversion a detailed assessment according to a

number of criteria was completed. A detailed table with the assessment of each site is found in Appendix

B. Information was collected for each site including the Regional and local Official Plan policies, current

zoning, a description of the existing use, land area and lot frontage, and a general description of the site

including surrounding land uses. Additional physical and environmental features of the site were noted

including the site’s current servicing availability and capacity and transportation access. Each site was

then assessed based on a number of specific criteria related to land use compatibility, local economics

and the local context.

In undertaking the assessment of the identified sites it was determined that the Allandale Campus, EC

Drury sites as well as the Urban Growth Area were not considered conversion sites as they were not

within an employment area as defined by the Growth Plan, ROPA 38 or OPA 31. These three areas,

however, do offer the potential for intensification through redevelopment which could increase

opportunities for jobs. The Town is currently undertaking a Downtown Study which will include further

consideration of the potential for additional office development within the Downtown. As previously

mentioned, the Allandale Campus is also being assessed for potential redevelopment through a study

being undertaken by the Region of Halton which is the current landowner. EC Drury represents one of

the large majorly institutional facilities within the Town. Its location on Ontario Street just south of the

Urban Growth Centre provides for a strategic location for potential redevelopment.

The site known as the McKinley Lands is located on the north side of the 401 west of Regional Road 25.

The McKinley lands were previously designated, prior to Official Plan Amendment No. 22 (OPA 22) to

the 2007 Official Plan, with a site specific exception and policies to permit large scale retail uses. OPA 22

removed those permissions. When OPA 31 was developed in 2010, the McKinley Lands were reinstated

with the Major Commercial Centre designation. OPA 31 as endorsed by Council maintains the McKinley

lands as a Major Commercial Centre. The site is however under the Region’s employment overlay.

4.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CONVERSIONS

The following is a summary of the assessment of each potential site and a recommendation related to

the conversion of the site for non-employment uses.

MERITOR SUSPENSION SYSTEMS COMPANY (MSSC) SITE

As previously noted, the Meritor Suspension Systems Company (MSSC) Site was considered for

potential conversion through the 2014 MCR work. The recommendation from the initial MCR was

that the MSSC site warranted conversion. It is surrounded by residential uses to the east and

natural heritage system to the west. The site was determined to be able to provide 0.7 million

square feet of commercial and mixed-use development.

Currently, the MSSC site is located within the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park. The site is

more connected physically to the residential communities south of Steeles (site includes Martin

Street Junior Public School which is currently under reconstruction) rather than to the industrial



development to the north. As a large contiguous parcel, it also provides flexibility for

redevelopment. Any redevelopment will have to be considered in the context of industrial uses

to the north to ensure there are adequate separation distances and mitigation measures in place

so as to protect nearby industry operations.

The MSSC site may have been subject to a recent sale (at the time of this report) and therefore

may continue as an employment use until such time as it is redeveloped. This should factor into

any amended designation or policy specific to the site.

Recommendation: That the MSSC Site be further considered for conversion to commercial and

potential residential uses in areas not formerly occupied by Meritor buildings subject to further study.

BRONTE STREET CORRIDOR

The Bronte Street Corridor provides for a strip of designated and built out employment lands

located north of Derry Road between the CN Rail Line and Bronte Street. The area contains a mix

of uses including a commercial plaza and newer office buildings. These sites are surrounded by

residential uses.

This area provides for office, business commercial and other employment uses that are

accessible to the neighbouring residential communities offering opportunities for local residents

to be within walking distance of an employment area. The area is recently developed and

represents a viable and stable office area. It is also connected to future employment lands to the

south and current supportive employment services to the north via Bronte Street. Consideration

should be given to allow this area to intensify, including the provision of additional employment

supportive uses.

Recommendation: The Bronte Corridor area should remain designated as an office and business

commercial employment area.

STEELES AVENUE CORRIDOR

The Steeles Avenue Corridor has been assessed broadly and specific sites have also been

evaluated. Sites within the Steeles Avenue Corridor range in land area and in existing uses. Lands

located on the north side of Steeles Avenue are within the Milton 401 Industrial and Business

Park.

Lands on the south side of the corridor generally have smaller sites and fragmented ownership

and while sites on the north side provide opportunities for redevelopment, they should be

maintained as employment lands connected to the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park to the

north. Existing residential uses are located further south of the corridor, as such the corridor also

provides a transition from residential uses to the industrial area.

There are two sites within the area that warrant consideration. First, the southeast corner of the

Steeles Avenue East and Martin Street intersection may be warranted for conversion as it is



connected to the Meritor site. Second, the southeast corner of the Steeles Avenue East and

Ontario Street North intersection may provide for an opportunity for expanded commercial uses

given its location and constraints.

Recommendation: The Steeles Avenue Corridor and the sites evaluated, with the exception of sites

1 and 3 noted above, should remain designated within the Business Park Area. These two sites

warrant further consideration within the report for intensification of employment uses as noted.

TRINISON SOUTH LANDS

The Trinison South Lands are located in southernmost portion of the Derry Green Corporate

Business Park Secondary Plan Area, east of the James Snow Parkway and Britannia Road

intersection. Trinison have submitted a request to have the lands considered for conversion on

the basis that there has been no market interest in the development of the lands for employment

purposes and the location of the lands are better suited for non-employment uses. Existing

residential uses are located on the west side of James Snow Parkway.

The majority of the lands are designated Business Park Area by the Derry Green Corporate

Business Park Secondary Plan and a strip of land along the east side of James Snow Parkway is

designated Prestige Office Area. Additional land use policies apply to the lands along James

Snow Parkway as they are within a Street Oriented Area.

Servicing for the lands in Derry Green Corporate Business Park is expected to be available at the

end of 2016. The lands in Derry Green Corporate Business Park would have transportation access

to Highway 401 via James Snow Parkway. Generally the lands are provided with planned

opportunities for a range of uses. Additional commercial uses are planned within the Boyne

Survey Lands that would also provide employment supportive services for the area.

The Trinison Lands are surrounded by existing and planned residential lands to the west, south

and east. However, they are a large contiguous block which can accommodate a range of

employment uses. There may be merit in considering additional employment uses on a portion

of these lands as a transitional area. Given their location there should be a requirement to

maintain a certain percentage of development with office uses to support job creation with

employment supportive uses.

Consideration for a broadening of employment supportive land uses on the lands may be

warranted.

Recommendation: A portion of the Trinison South Lands could be considered for a broader mix of

employment supportive uses.



5.0 EMPLOYMENT INTENSIFICATION

OPPORTUNITIES

Increasing employment density in Milton is a significant challenge for a number of reasons. Firstly, there

is a strong market for logistics and warehousing uses given the locational attributes of the land supply

that Milton provides. Secondly, the market for more intensive employment uses is currently stronger in

those municipalities within the Region that are in a state of development approaching build out and have

an existing strong corridor (such as the QEW) with supportive and connected transit. The office market

has not yet evolved into Milton to the same extent as it has in the municipalities to the east (Mississauga)

or south (Oakville and Burlington). These areas remain highly competitive for the current office market.

In looking at ways to intensify employment development and increase employment density, the Phase 2

report has addressed the following:

(i) intensification in existing employment areas;

(ii) increased opportunities in mixed use areas; and,

(iii) potential for opportunities through a special district/node approach with performance

targets to incent higher density.

5.1 INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING EMPLOYMENT AREAS

Intensifying existing employment areas is an efficient way to increase the density of existing employment

areas. This approach relies on a strong base of existing businesses looking to grow in place. Firms often

benefit from expanding in their existing locations as they are able to expand operations and retain

employees without relocating. Employment land intensification provides opportunities to accommodate

increased economic and employment activity on a limited land base and use infrastructure more

efficiently.

Intensification of employment areas, similar to residential intensification, can take place at various

scales. Existing businesses seeking to expand may create a small addition or enlargement to its

operations on the same site. At this level of intensification, businesses may increase operations and jobs;

however, the overall increase in land utilization and employment growth may be of a limited scale. Older

industrial business parks may also see intensification through the severance of larger “campus” style lots

and the development of new offices or businesses. Many suburban type business parks are experiencing

“urbanization” as these business park areas have considerable undeveloped and underutilized land at

prime locations that are serviced with infrastructure and transit. Finally, in certain cases, opportunities

exist to redevelop older employment areas for higher density mixed-use development with office, limited

residential oriented to higher density built forms, and retail and service commercial uses at grade. This

type of intensification would generally warrant conversion of the employment area to a mixed use area

unless there are specific policies to recognize a specialized centre.



The types of employment intensification a municipality may experience is highly dependent on the local

context (is the municipality close to build out or still expanding its urban area), historical development

(age and form), demographics and market trends.

Allowing for growth and intensification within the built-up employment area can stimulate effective and

efficient employment development and create complete employment areas. Redevelopment should

ensure where possible that open spaces are retained and designed as attractive natural amenities in the

area. Most importantly, complementary accessory uses that support employment uses should be

considered to provide amenities for all employees. Promoting the introduction of complementary

accessory uses also allows an existing employment area to operate as a more complete and connected

area.

In order to support general employment land redevelopment and intensification of existing employment

areas in Milton, an evaluation of the developed employment area was undertaken. Employment land

intensification is less predictable than other forms of redevelopment since individual sites and business

operations also influence the intensification potential. Furthermore, each industrial use has a unique set

of building design, transportation, compatibility and locational requirements that influence its

appropriateness for intensification. These factors have been considered to the greatest degree possible

in the evaluation. It should also be noted that within the existing developed employment areas there are

sites that were also assessed as potential areas for conversion.

In evaluating the existing developed employment areas for intensification, the following questions were

considered:

Does the employment site or area have low land coverage and underutilized land?

Does the employment site or area have any environmental or physical constraints which would

limit intensification?

Are the existing structure(s) in the employment area near the end of the expected building

lifespan?

Are there employment areas with large surface parking areas that can accommodate parking

above or below grade in the future?

Are there high profile locations in employment areas, such as along major streets or at street

intersections, suitable for complementary and employment supportive uses?

Figure 5-1 provides a high level estimate of the land areas for the existing employment areas. In addition,

a survey of the predominant industrial sectors is also noted in Figure 5-2.



Figure 5-1: Estimated Area of Existing and Designated Employment Areas in Milton

Block

# Area

Estimated Employment Area

(sq. m.)

1 Northwest Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park (excluding the McKinley Site)

1,834,900

2 North Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park 4,003,200

3 Southwest Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park 1,797,300

4 Southeast Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park (including Steeles Avenue Corridor north side)

961,100

5 South Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park (including MSSC site)

435,400

6 Portion of Steeles Avenue Corridor 65,400

7 James Snow Parkway South of Highway 401 36,300

8 Bruhm Lands 627,200

9 Derry Green Corporate Business Park 5,506,100

10 Bronte Road Corridor 212,400



Figure 5-2: Observed Land Uses in Existing and Planned Employment Areas

Block

# Area

Current Observed Uses

Warehouse

Outdoo

r

Storage

Manufacturing Logistics

1

Northwest Milton 401

Industrial and Business Park

(excluding the McKinley Site)

x x

2 North Milton 401 Industrial

and Business Park x x x x

3 Southwest Milton 401

Industrial and Business Park x x x

4

Southeast Milton 401

Industrial and Business Park

(including Steeles Avenue

Corridor north side)

x x

5

South Milton 401 Industrial

and Business Park (including

MSSC site)

x x

6 Portion of Steeles Avenue

Corridor x x

7 James Snow Parkway South of Highway 401

x

8 Bruhm Lands

9 Derry Green Corporate

Business Park

10 Bronte Street Corridor x

The following is a summary of each area’s potential based on the survey and analysis.

BRONTE STREET CORRIDOR

The lands located along Bronte Street, north of Derry Road, south of Main Street are surrounded

by residential uses to the west and east. The rail line also abuts the western boundary of this area.

The area is built out with a mix of uses including a commercial plaza, a car dealership and a range

of industrial office complexes. As a small corridor of employment uses in close proximity to the

surrounding residential community and the GO station, the Bronte Street Corridor has limited

intensification potential at this time since the majority of the uses are relatively newer

construction.



Potential: Limited potential for intensification due to recently constructed newer buildings and

recent build out.

MILTON 401 INDUSTRIAL AND BUSINESS PARK AREA

The Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park abuts the north and south sides of Highway 401 and

has the largest concentration of employment lands in North Halton. This employment area has

a strong base in distribution/logistics, manufacturing and transportation uses which vary

between a general industrial and moderately prestige industrial character. The McKinley Lands

discussed in Section 5.1, are located on the north side of the Steeles Avenue Corridor and the

MSSC site identified in Section 5.2 is located within this business park area.

The older part of the park, located south of the Highway 401, has a more general industrial

character. The area is home to the majority of the Town’s large manufacturing businesses. The

area north of Highway 401 is characterized by more recent developments and while more

prestige in character, is dominated by wholesale trade, distribution/logistics and multi-tenant

industrial buildings. The area is comprised of a number of internal parks such as the Escarpment

Business Community and High Point Business Park. The majority of development on

employment lands over the past five years has been located in the northwest part of the

employment area. The business park is approaching build out with few parcels remaining as

vacant.

While there may be some limited opportunities to potentially expand some existing uses in this

area or add new uses by infilling some vacant land areas, the amount of additional intensification

is somewhat limited based on the current types of uses, form of buildings and existing coverage.

There appears to be one larger site (Toronto Auto Auctions) that may be redeveloped with a

more intensive use that would increase employment density. Many of the current operations are

also using the majority of their lands (buildings, outdoor storage and parking for both employees

and operational vehicles). As this area ages over the next two to three decades, there may be

some uses that “age out” of current operations. As a result, there may be the possibility for older

buildings to be refurbished and re-used for higher density type uses in the future. However, this

is not likely to occur in the short term given the additional supply of planned and future

employment areas and current market trends as described in the Phase 1 report.

Potential: Limited intensification due to expansive existing operations and limited additional land

area to expand. Toronto Auto Auctions represents approximately 150 acres which could be

repurposed for a more intensive employment use.

STEELES AVENUE CORRIDOR

Along the north side of Steeles Avenue, south of the 401, there is a mix of existing commercial

and industrial uses. Within this corridor there are a number of vacant sites on which additional

employment uses will be developed. Given the proximity to residential and commercial areas the

intensification along this corridor should be encouraged in the future.



Based on the current land supply and market context, as well as our area analysis, some

additional employment development within the existing built area should be possible over the

next twenty years and should be supported. Policies that provide for additional uses and density

in this area should be provided in the updated policies.

Potential: The Steeles Avenue Corridor provides for potential opportunities for intensification.

Additional policies will be provided in the draft amendments for this area.

The results illustrate that the existing areas will yield minimal opportunities for intensification

based on a number of factors including environmental constraints and the fact that most sites

are close to full usage/coverage with current buildings and outdoor operations. The nature of the

industries and sectors operating in most of the existing employment areas are also space

expansive and any future expansions as noted will take place on the ground level. Milton does

not have a volume of business or industries that are at a stage in their building cycle to be closed

and/or retrofitted.

Where there may be sites available for redevelopment, they are likely to be redeveloped for

similar or like uses in the short term. There is not currently a significant market for more intensive

office type uses within the older employment areas. The newer business park areas in Milton that

were assessed for intensification also contain predominantly lower density space expansive uses,

and as further noted do not contain the same level of vacant open space areas that traditional

campus style, suburban business parks provide which result in even less opportunity for

intensification.

As stated, there may be some limited opportunities to consider some increased potential for

service and institutional uses as well as employment supportive uses within the existing

employment areas. Expanding the business commercial nodes or site permissions along corridor

locations should be considered. Such uses can serve the older industrial areas and also provide a

transition between land uses to maximize compatibility. This approach has to be carefully

balanced and directed to appropriate geographic locations.

5.2 INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES IN MIXED USE AREAS

While not classified as employment lands or employment areas, mixed use nodes and commercial areas

within the Town can and should provide for increased employment opportunities. As was noted in the

Phase 1 report, the emphasis in employment land policy has been to focus on the protection of land for

employment and not on providing opportunities or increased jobs. Many jurisdictions which are

experiencing regeneration of older commercial and employment areas are implementing land use policy

to require a minimal amount of non-residential floor space dedicated to employment uses. While these

spaces may not be for primary employment jobs, they can accommodate service and retail jobs as well

as institutional sector jobs. These areas can also accommodate office uses and knowledge based services



which are attracted to a location that has a full range of supportive services and is in close proximity to

residential communities or actually integrated within the community itself. Requiring no net loss of

existing non-residential floor areas on larger site redevelopments or minimum percentages of office

development is an appropriate policy approach that can be considered as part of Milton’s strategy for

employment intensification and increased density. This approach also recognizes the structural changes

occurring within the regional and local economy to accommodate the growing knowledge based sector.

The Town’s Urban Growth Area (including Downtown Milton), the Allendale Campus and EC Drury

Campus, as well as the Secondary Mixed Use Nodes, all provide opportunities for intensification which

can include increased opportunities for mixed use development inclusive of commercial businesses and

jobs. Two recent studies which focused on the revitalization of existing areas may contribute to providing

for opportunities for increased employment.

Allendale Campus

Halton Region owns the property known as Allendale Campus at 185 Ontario Street South, which is the

current location for Allendale long-term care facility, Seniors’ Activity Centre, Halton Police Services,

Halton Region Emergency Medical Services (EMS), Halton Women’s Place facility, Martin House Seniors

Residence and a community garden. In 2016, the Region retained a consultant team to assess the

comprehensive land use potential of the site and to determine the highest and best land uses for the

property. The study is referred to as the Ontario Street Property Land Use Study.

Some of the development concepts contemplated are to be presented at initial public workshops in

August 2016. In general, the intensification of the Allendale site could provide a mix of residential and

employment uses. Given the location of the site, within the Milton’s Urban Growth Centre, the Allendale

Campus is well suited to support residential and employment intensification. Furthermore, it is the intent

of the land use study to meet the recommendations proposed by the 2010 Milton Intensification and Infill

Study for the UGC.

Milton’s Downtown Study

In early 2016, the Town of Milton initiated a set of studies to analyze downtown Milton's opportunities

for redevelopment and revitalization. Part of the work completed to date includes a market analysis of

Milton's downtown conducted by Watson and Associates. The findings of the market analysis are

intended to inform the types of growth that can be accommodated in a defined area within the

downtown and provided key market information such as vacancy rates, turnover rates and a suitable

range of uses. The market analysis was completed and identified redevelopment and revitalization

opportunities, and provided recommendations for policy changes, partnerships and redevelopment of

Town-owned lands (Milton Staff report PD-005-16 and PD-029-16).

The key findings are as following:

- 15 underutilized parcels within the study area totaling 1.8 net ha (4.4 net acres) which could

potentially accommodate redevelopment.



- The Town of Milton owns 65% of the underutilized parcels identified.

- Major parks and a flood plain are located within the study area.

- Approximately 381,000 square feet of non-residential floor space is located in the study area.

- Observed declining vacancy rate in the study area between 1998 and 2013 and stable vacancy

rate of 6% between 2013 and 2016.

- The study area has 1,525 jobs or approximately 4% of the Town’s employment base.

- The combined jobs and population density of Milton Downtown is approximately 81 peoples and

jobs per gross ha.

The study found that there are limited opportunities to accommodate office-based employment in the

Downtown due to its distance from the Town’s GO station and the historic nature of the area may limit

the size and scale of future redevelopment. The study projects a growth potential of 100 to 200 office-

based jobs between 2016 and 2031 for the Downtown. Approximately 200 to 300 new residents are also

projected for the Downtown area.

5.3 SPECIAL EMPLOYMENT NODES AND DISTRICTS

Milton has a great opportunity to expand the potential for employment within areas that are designated

but yet to be planned. The Trafalgar/Derry Lands has potential to create opportunities similar to that

which have been planned and are to be further studied in the Milton Education Village.

It is important to note that the Trafalgar/Derry Lands were being considered by Metrolinx as a part of

their new station analysis between 2015 and 2016. The analysis for new station on the Milton GO Train

Corridor was recently completed by Metrolinx. Unfortunately, the location was not recommended for

further study as it does not meet the objectives for the location of a new station at this time. This is a

complex situation as the Town is constrained in advancing those objectives. The Trafalgar/Derry Lands

should still be considered as a prime opportunity to create a mixed use node which is inclusive of

employment uses. This node should be distinctive and offer a complete employment community

approach. The expert panel conveyed that creating such a node takes patience and perseverance with

the market. Several municipalities have identified special employment nodes in their employment

policies to enable the maximization of employment opportunities within the area. The locational

attributes of the Trafalgar/Derry Lands and its connection to a potential GO Station can support the

introduction of community amenities. When combined, these assets can be used to foster economic

advantages for the node and attract knowledge based sector jobs that seek locations with community

based supports.

This area, as recommended in the earlier MCR work, should be a priority for the next planned

employment area through the designation of the lands from Future Strategic Employment Area to

Regional Node - Special Policy Area.



6.0 CHALLENGES FOR INCREASED JOB

CREATION AND MEETING EMPLOYMENT

OBJECTIVES

In the early 1990’s, Destiny Milton 1 was developed to provide a vision for the change that arose a result

of the extension of services to Milton and expected population increase. Destiny Milton 2 was completed

in 2006 to provide a comprehensive vision, goals and directions to further manage growth in the 2000’s.

Recently, Destiny Milton 3 was completed to set the vision and priorities for the next decade. Although

the strategic plan for Milton has adjusted over time, the goal of the Town of Milton to focus on job

creation and maintain a high standard of living for its residents and businesses that support and sustain

the assessment base has remained.

In addition to the strategic plan, Milton Council has also remained committed to its First Principles of

Growth (Report PD-070-08). The growth principles relate to the Region of Halton’s Sustainable Halton

Plan and the goals of Destiny Milton 2 to provide well-managed growth and to maintain a diverse,

sustainable economy. This report served as the foundation for Milton's continuing growth, “subject to

the Town's need to balance growth; physically administer the required infrastructure; and financially

manage the growth.”

Milton's First Principles of Growth include the direction to achieve” a balanced residential/employment

growth based upon a minimum 0.5 employee to resident ratio.” In addition, the First Principles also

encourage “the broadest range of employment opportunities beyond 2031”.

As noted in the Phase 1 report and in the initial Municipal Comprehensive Review report cited earlier,

while Milton has planned for and provided employment lands to accommodate growth and address land

budget and forecasting requirements to meet Regional and Provincial requirements, that land has been

absorbed predominantly by the manufacturing, logistics and transportation sector. Due to changes in

the economy and technology, employment from the manufacturing, logistics and transportation sectors

have been increasingly labour-efficient and land expansive. While these sectors have flourished in Milton,

taking advantage of strategic locations and providing significant assessment, the employment density

associated with these industries has translated into relatively low employment yields.



Figure 6-1: Milton Employment Total Employment, Activity Rate between 1996 and 2015

Employment land development in more dense forms to accommodate knowledge-based and office-

based sectors has been limited for a number of reasons as described in the Phase 1 report including

competing urban markets in surrounding municipalities, market conditions and locational attributes. As

noted by the “Performance Indicators for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe”, in 2011,

very few municipalities were able to achieve the prescribed employment density. Within the Milton

context, the 0.5 employee to resident ratio was only achieved in Downtown Milton9. Town-wide in 2011,

there are approximately 0.38 employees to resident in Milton.

The work undertaken by this study has confirmed the need for Milton to maintain a land supply that can

accommodate the logistics sector. What is critical to Milton’s ability to increase its employment activity

rate is for the Town to ensure the current and future land supply provides those attributes and

opportunities that will attract knowledge-based and more employment intensive development. While it

is recognized that some of that future development will come as Milton evolves and builds out and older

areas begin to intensify and redevelop, a shift in employment planning also needs to occur. This shift

needs to better provide for employment land that serves more than just industries and facilities. It needs

to serve employees, be well connected and served by transit and the needs of smaller, evolving

businesses that accommodate knowledge based sectors. As is summarized in the next section of the

9 http://www.mah.gov.on.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=10849



report, the recent provincial plan review is recommending some changes to accommodate this shift with

a distinction between prime employment areas and general employment areas that need to be more

employee focused with a mix and range of uses and services. The Town however needs to strategically

consider a direction that not only revises its policies for employment lands by allowing for more employee

supportive uses at nodal locations but also introduces special policy areas that facilitate knowledge based

employment centres and innovation districts with performance based policies and a broader mix of uses.

Recommendations to amend policies and land use designations within the Town’s policy framework are

outlined in the report in Section 8.0. While many of these recommendations will align with the evolving

provincial recommendations, some will require consideration by the Region to provide flexibility within

its policies to recognize strategic locations for special districts and nodes within the Town.



7.0 PROVINICAL LAND USE PLANNING

CHANGES

On February 27, 2015, Ontario began the process of reviewing 4 provincial land use plans, including the

Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan), the Greenbelt Plan, and the Niagara

Escarpment Plan, and the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan. The first phase of public consultation

took place between March and May 2015. The public’s input informed an appointed 6-member Advisory

Panel, who provided recommendations on how to amend the plan. Their findings were released in

December 2015 in a report entitled Planning for Health, Prosperity and Growth in the Greater Golden

Horseshoe: 2015 – 2041.

Following the panel report, the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH) issued the Proposed

Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in May 2016 for phase two of the public consultation. The

public, municipalities and government agencies will have an opportunity to provide feedback on the

proposed policy amendments for the four provincial land use plans until October 31, 2016. These

recommendations pre-dated the Phase 1 report and are important in the consideration of Milton’s

employment land planning.

7.1 FORECASTS

The proposed review updates its land use planning time horizon and forecasts. In the Proposed Growth

Plan, the Region of Halton is expected to grow to 850,000 people and 390,000 jobs in 2031 and to 1 million

people and 470,000 jobs in 2041.

This update will require Halton Region to update its growth forecast to reflect planned residential and

employment growth. Based on the updated projections, the Town of Milton may have a higher amount

of employment and residential growth pressures than previously anticipated.

7.2 INTENSIFICATION TARGET

The proposed recommended charges to the Growth Plan include an increase to intensification and

density targets for all upper- and single-tier municipalities. Proposed Policy 2.2.2.3 states the minimum

intensification target has increased to a minimum of 60 per cent of all residential development occurring

annually within the built-up area. This is increased from the 40 per cent intensification rate required

starting in 2015.



The increase of the intensification targets may place pressure for local municipalities to convert lands

within its built boundary to meet the increased lands of intensification. At the same time, intensification

may only be supported by the market at specific geographic locations.

7.3 MINIMUM DENSITY OF DESIGNATED GREENFIELD AREA

Proposed Policy 2.2.7.2 states designated greenfield areas will be planned to achieve a minimum density

target that is not less than 80 residents and jobs combined per hectare within the horizon of this Plan.

This new target is an increase from 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare. The updated Growth

Plan however, is proposed to now exclude lands in natural heritage areas, various rights-of-way

(highway, rail, utilities), and prime employment areas in the calculation of the minimum density of

designated greenfield areas.

The increase of minimum density of designated greenfield areas should be considered in conjunction

with the exclusion of prime employment areas. This may be beneficial to Milton given the low

employment density of Milton’s prime employment sectors. The Town of Milton can better plan and

allow for employment growth along its highway corridors through designating those lands as prime

employment area. At the same time, Milton’s greenfield residential density while historically higher (at

approximately 60 and jobs per ha in 200910) than the previous density target, (50) will provide for higher

densities in designated greenfield areas.

7.4 PROTECTING PRIME EMPLOYMENT AREAS

The Proposed Growth Plan also includes revisions to the employment policies. This section summarizes

the updates relevant to the Town of Milton’s land needs assessment.

Prime employment areas is a new term introduced by the Proposed Growth Plan as a more protected

level of employment area, beyond “employment area” defined in previous versions of the Growth Plan.

Proposed Policy 2.2.5.3 requires “suitable lands within settlement areas that are adjacent to, or in the

vicinity of, major goods movement facilities and corridors, including major highway interchanges, should

be identified as prime employment areas.”

In addition, the Proposed Growth Plan defines prime employment area as “areas of employment within

settlement areas that are designated in an official plan and protected over the long-term for uses that

10

http://sirepub.halton.ca/councildocs/pm/6/Sep%2016%202009%20InterMunicipal%20Liaison%20Committee%20IMLC1109%20%20Various%

20Scenarios%20of%20Densities%20and%20Hou%20%20IMLC1109%20Attachment%202pdf%2089150.pdf



are land extensive or have low employment densities and require these locations, including

manufacturing, warehousing and logistics, and appropriate associated uses and ancillary facilities.”

Employment area remains as a defined term, which is “areas designated in an official plan for clusters of

business and economic activities including, but not limited to, manufacturing, warehousing, offices, and

associated retail and ancillary facilities.”

As discussed previously, prime employment areas are excluded in the calculation of the minimum density

of designated greenfield areas. More protection is also afforded to prime employment areas, such that

its conversion to non-employment uses is more difficult. Specifically, Proposed Policy 2.2.5.5 states

prime employment areas are to be planned with freight-supportive land use patterns and residential and

non-ancillary land uses, such as institutional uses, and retail, commercial and office uses, are prohibited

from prime employment areas. In addition, Proposed Policy 3.2.4.3 further protects freight movement in

prime employment areas through the required establishment of priority routes to facilitate the

movement of goods into and out of prime employment areas.

The Proposed Growth Plan also provides more flexibly in employment areas. Proposed Policy 2.2.5.6

states that with the exception of prime employment areas, employment areas are to be integrate with

adjacent non-employment areas and “develop vibrant, mixed-use areas and innovation hubs, where

appropriate”. In addition, employment areas are permitted to have commercial uses at locations that are

support by transit. However, residential land uses and limit other sensitive land uses continues to be

prohibited.

The conversion of land use related to prime employment areas and employment areas operates as a

tiered system. The conversion of lands within prime employment areas to employment areas, or lands

within employment areas to non-employment uses may still only be permitted only through an MCR

(Proposed Policy 2.2.5.7). The conversion of lands within prime employment areas directly to non-

employment uses is prohibited (Proposed Policy 2.2.5.8).

7.5 EMPLOYMENT INTENSIFICATION AT TRANSIT-SUPPORTIVE AREAS

The Proposed Growth Plan reinstated the key objectives of the original Growth Plan but also added new

objectives. These new objectives focus on the provision of public transportation and intensification in

areas with planned and existing transportation services, including the following:

“2.2.1.2 e. focusing growth in areas with existing or planned transit, with a priority on

higher order transit;

2.2.1.2 g. providing convenient, multimodal access to intra- and inter-municipal transit,

giving priority to connections between residents and jobs;”



Related to these new objectives that focus on public transportation and connecting residents to jobs are

new provisions and targets for Transit Corridors and Station Areas. This includes the requirement for the

delineation of “Priority transit corridors” that connects to mobility hubs in local official plans. These new

density targets are additional to the density targets of the Urban Growth Centres, which includes

Downtown Milton that is required to plan for 200 resident and jobs combined per hectare.

Proposed Policy 2.2.4.5 states “Major transit station areas will be planned to achieve, by 2041 or earlier,

a minimum gross density target of:

200 residents and jobs combined per hectare for those that are served by subways;

160 residents and jobs combined per hectare for those that are served by light rail transit or bus

rapid transit; or

150 residents and jobs combined per hectare for those that are served by express rail service on

the GO Transit network.”

It is also noted that the minimum density targets for major transit stations do not apply to lands that have

been designated as prime employment areas (Proposed Policy 2.2.4.6). Given these new density targets,

it is important to analyze the development potential around a potential GO Train station which

contemplates higher density employment uses, such as offices, where appropriate.

The Proposed Growth Plan strategically directs employment to areas identified to intensify. Proposed

Policy 2.2.5.9 states “major office and appropriate major institutional development will be directed to

urban growth centres, major transit station areas or other strategic growth areas with existing or planned

frequent transit service.” A new definition of major office is provided that replaces the requirement for

buildings of 10,000 squares metres or more with buildings that are 4,000 square metres or provide for

200 or more jobs. New provisions are also added to support existing and planned office parks, including,

by improving connectivity with transit networks, providing for an appropriate mix of amenities and open

space to serve the workforce. Provisions are also provided for planning for intensification of employment

uses, and reducing the reliance on single-occupancy vehicle uses (Proposed Policies 2.2.5.10 and

2.2.5.11). These provisions can encourage intensification of existing employment area in Milton.



8.0 RECOMMENDED STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS

AND POLICY CHANGES

Through our review and analysis of Milton’s employment lands, the following recommendations are

provided for Council’s consideration. These recommendations area based on:

the analysis of the Phase 1 report findings;

Milton’s updated long term employment and employment land needs forecast;

Milton’s employment area growth potential including possible intensification sites the

conversion site analysis;

the recent recommended Provincial land use policy changes and the current Provincial, Regional

and local planning framework;

staff input and Council direction; and,

stakeholder and public input.

UPDATE THE EMPLOYMENT FORECAST

Based on the employment forecast to 2041, Milton will need to advance the planning of its current

designated and planned employment land supply to accommodate forecast employment growth within

the planning horizon as the entirety of these lands will be needed. It will be important to ensure these

lands are serviced to maintain the demand for the logistics and warehousing sector for which Milton has

a strong competitive market. It will be equally important to advance the planning of the Milton Education

Village as this area represents an opportunity to provide a centralized employment community around

the establishment of a major institutional facility to attract knowledge based sector employment.

The updated employment land needs forecast (Alternative Scenario) will require 461 ha of additional

employment land to be designated within the Official Plan. This represents the need for 35% of the

identified Future Strategic Employment Area.

CREATING A TIERED HIERARCHY FOR MILTON’S EMPLOYMENT AREAS

DEFINE MILTON’S PRIME EMPLOYMENT AREAS

Milton has a very strong logistics and warehousing sector that is highly competitive due to its

locational advantages. The logistics and warehousing facilities, in additional to the older

industrial areas in the Milton 401 Industrial and Business Park, should be recognized as Milton’s

“Prime Employment” areas. Consideration should also be given to which land use designations

(under OPA 31) should be included within the Prime Employment Area. Should the Prime

Employment Area only include the Industrial, Business Park and Prestige Office land use

designations? This would provide for the Office Employment and Business Commercial

designations being found under the General Employment Area of the Town.



This new overlay will reinforce the hierarchy of Milton’s employment lands and reflect the

Province’s direction to protect prime employment lands and to restrict non-prime employment

uses which the Town can define through its local Plan. While the Provincial recommendation is

fairly restrictive as it prohibits non-employment uses in the prime employment areas, the Town

should identify some nodal locations for employment supportive uses to ensure the prime areas

remain well serviced with accessible supportive uses.

Any defined future prime employment areas will also be excluded from the land area calculation

required to meet the greenfield density targets under the updated Growth Plan. Given the

importance of the logistics sector in Milton, this will assist in removing the effect of blending the

lower density of such uses from the higher density yielding uses within the greenfield area.

DEFINE MILTON’S GENERAL EMPLOYMENT AREA

In addition to identifying Milton’s Prime Employment Area, Milton’s General Employment Area

should also be defined in its plan. As noted, this area would likely include the Office Employment

and Business Commercial designations.

PROVIDE FOR MORE CONCENTRATED EMPLOYMENT SUPPORTIVE NODES

The Town should consider the provision of new nodal or updated corridor area policies that provide for

employment supportive uses which serve the employment area. The intention of these areas is to provide

for services that support the employment uses in the area and also provide for more compact uses within

a centralized area. Clustered concentrations of supportive uses at intersections, gateway locations, or

transitional areas (i.e. employment lands to commercial areas) or on key sites are recommended to

enhance the locational attributes and competitiveness of the employment area.

SPECIAL EMPLOYMENT NODES/DISTRICTS

The Phase 1 report noted the moderate office sector growth in Milton. In order to leverage the local

employment base and promote the office sector, there should be a focus on creating new locations for

concentrated employment opportunities in the form of urban office developments with a full range of

supportive uses, possibly including limited residential, as well as access to higher order transit.

The provision of knowledge intensive districts or suburban knowledge intensive districts (SKIDS) as they

are referred to in the Neptis Foundation’s "Planning for Prosperity: Globalization, Competitiveness, and

the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe”, can advance highly competitive locations to serve

the growing need for knowledge based sector centres. The MEV is already established as a district that

will evolve with the introduction of a major institutional facility. The Trafalgar/Derry Lands also has the

potential for a future GO station (although not formerly recommended at this time), which can provide

for higher density office development over time. The most important factor to be considered in planning

for this area will be to ensure that growth is managed. While it may take a significant amount of time

before the higher density offices evolve, maintaining the opportunity and not allowing for alternative

lower density uses will be important.



The Trafalgar/Derry Lands surrounding a possible future GO Station should be a priority in planning to

accommodate additional employment land needs.

LIMIT EMPLOYMENT SITE CONVERSION

Based on the analysis of the potential conversion sites, consideration should only be given to the

expansion of uses on the Steeles Avenue sites at Martin Street and Ontario Street North for commercial

uses. The previously recommended McKinley lands should continue to be designated as proposed for

commercial uses.

INTENSIFICATION IN NON-EMPLOYMENT AREAS TO MAINTAIN AND CREATE NEW JOBS

Redevelopment within the Town’s mixed use areas and Milton’s Urban Growth Centre represent an

opportunity to provide employment in office, retail and service commercial jobs. While there is limited

intensification potential in the older existing industrial areas, employment should be encouraged as part

of the intensification within the Central Business District and as part of the redevelopment of Allandale

Campus and the EC Drury site. Requiring a minimum amount of employment generating land uses within

mixed use development through redevelopment should be considered. The additional work being

undertaken by the Town related to the office market in Downton Milton will be important to consider

with updated policies that may require a minimum amount of office or commercial uses with

redevelopment. Many municipalities use performance targets or a “no net loss” provision for commercial

and office space when older areas are redeveloped for mixed use.

SERVICING AND INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT (INCLUDING TRANSIT)

Servicing and infrastructure for employment lands should be prioritized with early initiation of Area

Servicing Plans for the larger planned areas. Traditionally employment areas have been serviced through

the last phases of Secondary Plan development as they are often geographically located at peripheral

locations due to expansive land needs. While these peripheral areas are needed to accommodate lands

which due to compatibility requirements need to be separated, they are not attractive for smaller

businesses or knowledge based sector industries as they are detached from connected urban centres

which provide supportive transit and amenities. Smaller designated areas with supportive servicing

infrastructure need to be identified and prioritized through phasing and servicing policies. These areas

may be nodal or along key corridor locations.



8.1 OFFICIAL PLAN AMENDMENTS

To further assist staff, the following additional table references those areas of the Official Plan that

should be addressed to implement the study recommendations. This table assumes that OPA 31 is

approved as it should be used as the based for amendments going forward.

OP Section Proposed Change/Amendment

2.1.3.2 Urban Area Additional reference to employment intensification through UGC and

other mixed use sites. Reference to MEV and Trafalgar/Derry Lands

should be added to this section noting their importance and how they

are to be developed as a priority to achieve employment density.

2.1.4 Strategic Policies Addition of 2041 forecast numbers

2.1.6.5 Intensification Recognition of areas for employment intensification and supporting

policies should be included in this section.

2.4 Economic

Development

A reference to MEV and Trafalgar/Derry Lands should be added with a

general policy outlining importance of attracting knowledge based

sector jobs and objectives to achieve those jobs

3.3 Residential/Office

Area

Consider broader use permissions in these area rather than just limited

office uses. Also consider renaming this land use designation.

3.5 CBD Emphasize the importance of jobs as well as uses in the policy

language.

3.7 Employment Consider introducing a hierarchy within the Employment Area policies

based on Prime Employment and General Employment Areas and

Special Policy Employment Nodes/Districts. \Reorganization of the

Town’s current employment designations with updated policies in each

designation as noted.

Consider criteria for employment supportive uses under 3.7.1.3 which

would now be provided for in the General Employment Areas

“Employment supportive uses may be permitted within the general

employment land use designations at the locations noted and subject

to development criteria.

Add 3.7.2.2. (c) language to office employment policies to allow limited

service commercial and retail uses within office buildings.

Business Commercial Areas – These would be considered within the

General Employment area at nodal locations. The Town may want to

reconsider the caps on the retail permissions in these areas if they are

limited to nodal locations as the current cap appears relatively low.

Business Park Areas – These areas would form part of the Prime

Employment Area. The policies for these areas should be strengthened

to ensure secondary uses are limited. It will be important, however, to

ensure there are some supportive uses to service these areas at

peripheral, accessible nodes.



OP Section Proposed Change/Amendment

There is a need to clarify institutional uses (existing and proposed)

within employment areas, again given provincial direction. Adding

language that would provide for educational facilities and places of

worship to be located at peripheral locations within the area based on

established criteria to include land use compatibility and mitigation

measures including setbacks, buffers, and separation distances.

Special Policy Areas Add language to the proposed Regional Mixed Node from the MCR:

Provide for criteria for the node based on providing a complete

community. Include performance targets with minimum employment

densities and potential secondary uses with possible housing based on a

ratio of employment uses with the area being planned as an

employment centered hub.

Milton 401 Industrial and

Business Park

Remove the Major Commercial Centre out of employment area to

recognize the McKinley lands.



9.0 CONCLUSIONS

The key purpose of the Employment Land Needs Assessment is to confirm the Town’s employment

land needs, and provide strategic direction and recommendations for the Town to implement in

planning for its future employment lands. The recommendations have been carefully developed with

consideration for the current and future market context, the Provincial and Regional policy framework,

the Town’s physical context, economic development goals and objectives and engagement with key

stakeholders and experts. The assessment work has been comprehensively undertaken in two phases

and has been guided by study principles established at the outset of the study.

The following are the key conclusions and recommendations of the study:

1. To meet its employment land needs to 2041, the Town needs to ensure it has 1,478 net hectares

of employment land. The Town currently has a supply of 987 hectares designated and in

planned growth areas, representing a shortfall of 209 ha between 2016 and 2036 and a shortfall

of 491 ha between 2016 and 2041.

2. In order to meet demand in 2041 the Town needs to designate approximately 35% of its

inventory of Future Strategic Employment Areas.

3. In designating new employment lands the Town should focus on areas that can strategically

provide for more employee centered districts with locational advantages and minimized

constraints.

4. To advance development in existing employment areas, the Town should update its current

policies to align with the evolving Provincial directions which defined prime employment areas

and general employment areas. Prime employment areas should be focused on Milton’s

historical industrial areas with the maintenance of policies to protect the operations and

functions within these areas. Policies for the general employment areas should be updated to

provide for more employment supportive uses at strategic locations and to advance

opportunities for higher density forms of employment within the Milton Education Village.

5. The conversion of current employment designated lands should be limited to those sites

previously supported through OPA 31 including the Meritor lands.

6. A broader range of land uses should continue to be provided within Milton’s mixed use areas to

support job creation opportunities.

7. The designation of additional employment lands to meet Milton’s longer term needs should

focus on the creation of special employment nodes/districts which shifts the creation of large

tracts for traditional employment land uses to smaller centers located at distinct, competitive

locations with access to transit and amenities and with opportunities for a mix of uses based on

performance targets for higher density employment.

8. Milton remains in an excellent position to build on its existing success due to its economic

development activity and competitive advantage and the opportunity to create new

investment opportunities to expand its knowledge based employment sectors with future

planned areas.

DRAFT Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study Phase 2 Analyses And Recommendations Report

APPENDIX A

Public Survey Responses


Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study Phase 1

Public Survey Responses

Question 1:

Question 2:


Question 3:

Question 4:



Question 5:


APPENDIX B

Assessment of Potential Conversion

Sites





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