TPB Technical Committee

May 7, 2004

2004 Forecast and Ozone Action Day Program

22

What Are The Main Issues This Ozone What Are The Main Issues This Ozone Season?Season?

Forecasting will be based on predicting the next Forecasting will be based on predicting the next day’s 8-hour ozone Air Quality Index. day’s 8-hour ozone Air Quality Index.

Multi-pollutantsMulti-pollutants– Forecasts for particles will be issued for the Forecasts for particles will be issued for the

Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan Area. Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan Area.

33

What is an Ozone Exceedance?What is an Ozone Exceedance?8-hr Ozone Standard8-hr Ozone Standard = any 8-hr averaging period greater = any 8-hr averaging period greater than or equal to 85 ppb is an exceedance of the standardthan or equal to 85 ppb is an exceedance of the standard

1-hr Ozone Standard1-hr Ozone Standard = any 1-hr averaging period greater = any 1-hr averaging period greater than or equal to 125 ppb is an exceedance of the standardthan or equal to 125 ppb is an exceedance of the standard

Eight-hour exceedances are based on an 8-hour running average. An 8-hour exceedance will not be known until the end of the day.

One-hour exceedances are based on an hourly average. A 1-hour exceedance will be known at the end of an hour.

44

8

46

1

6 6 7

2 3

9

3

52

20

29

18

29

47

39

10

24

38

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nu

mb

er

of

Ex

ce

ed

an

ce

Da

ys

1-Hour Exceedance 8-Hour Excursion

8-Hour Ozone vs. 1-Hour Ozone 8-Hour Ozone vs. 1-Hour Ozone Exceedances Exceedances

(1993-2003 Washington Region Data)(1993-2003 Washington Region Data)

55

The New Forecast ApproachThe New Forecast Approach

An Ozone Action Day will be An Ozone Action Day will be called at an AQI level of 151 called at an AQI level of 151 (Code Red).(Code Red).

An Ozone Action Day will be An Ozone Action Day will be called if the next day is forecasted called if the next day is forecasted to be a “High Orange” (AQI of to be a “High Orange” (AQI of 125) 125) ANDAND the following day is the following day is forecasted to be a Code Red.forecasted to be a Code Red.

AQI AQI RangeRange

AQIAQI ColorColor

201-300 Purple

151-200 Red

101-150 Orange

51-100 Yellow

0-50 Green

66

Comparison of Choices for Ozone Action Comparison of Choices for Ozone Action Day CriteriaDay Criteria

(1999-2003 Washington Region Data)(1999-2003 Washington Region Data)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Da

ys

Red 1-Hour (>124ppb) Orange 8-Hour (>84ppb)

Red 8-Hour (>104ppb) Purple 8-Hour (125-374ppb)

77

How Many How Many Code RedCode Red Action Days Will We Action Days Will We Have?Have?

(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)

6

7

2

3

9

3

9

1

3

10

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nu

mb

er

of

Ac

tio

n D

ay

s

Number of Action Days (old method) Number of Action Days (new method)

88

What is Code Purple?What is Code Purple?

AQI AQI RangeRange

AQIAQI ColorColor

Health Health DescriptorDescriptor

8-Hr O3 8-Hr O3 Range (ppb)Range (ppb)

201-300

Purple Very Unhealthy

125-374

0

1

0 0

2 2

0

1

2

3

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nu

mb

er

of

Da

ys

Active adults and kids – and adults and children with lung disease like asthma – are sensitive to air pollution and should avoid all outdoor exertion while we are in the purple range.

(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)(1998-2003 Washington Region Data)

99

Addressing The Multi-Pollutant IssueAddressing The Multi-Pollutant Issue Forecasts will be issued using the Forecasts will be issued using the

Air Quality Index (AQI) color Air Quality Index (AQI) color codes.codes.

Primary pollutant on hotline and Primary pollutant on hotline and fax.fax.

Both pollutants on the web site.Both pollutants on the web site.

Integrated health message to Integrated health message to address both ozone and particles.address both ozone and particles.

AQI AQI RangeRange

AQIAQI ColorColor

8-Hr O3 8-Hr O3 Range (ppb)Range (ppb)

24-Hr PM24-Hr PM2.52.5 Range (Range (µg/mµg/m33))

201-300

Purple 125-374 150.5-250.4

151-200

Red 105-124 65.5-150.4

101-150

Orange 85-104 40.5-65.4

51-100 Yellow 65-84 15.5-40.4

0-50 Green 0-64 0-15.4

EPA’s Air Quality Index Reporting Rule: Final August 4, 1999

1010

Code Red and Orange Particle DaysCode Red and Orange Particle DaysWashington, DC

1111

Integrated Health MessageIntegrated Health Message

People with HEART OR LUNG DISEASE, older adults, children, and even healthy adults may experience health effects when air pollution levels are high (Code Orange or worse). Should air quality exceed the federal health standard, an Air Quality Code Red Health Advisory will be issued advising the following precautions:

• Children and older adults should reduce outdoor activities.

• Healthy individuals should limit strenuous work or exercise, especially outdoors.

• Individuals with respiratory and heart ailments, emphysema, asthma, or chronic bronchitis should limit their activity level.

1212

Sample Washington Sample Washington Press ReleasePress Release

1313

ConclusionConclusion

2004 will be a transition year from 1-2004 will be a transition year from 1-hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting.hour to 8-hour ozone forecasting.

Ozone Action Day will be called Air Ozone Action Day will be called Air Quality Action Day to include particles.Quality Action Day to include particles.