Tracking change in land use and vegetation condition

Richard Thackway

Presentation to Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra 22 May 2013

Outline

• Concepts and definitions• Current status of national data and information• VAST-2 methodology • Case studies• Lessons • Where to from here?• More information

Regulation of hydrological regime Generation of food and fibre Regulation of climate / microclimate Generation of raw materials Recycling of organic matter Creating and regulating habitats Controlling reproduction and dispersal

Changing ecological function to derive multiple benefits (ecosystem services)

landscape

transformation

Models of ecosystem change i.e. cause & effect

Source: Adamson and Fox (1982)

Time

Chan

ge in

veg

etati

on in

dica

tor

Settlement

10000

Reference

Occupation

Relaxation

Anthropogenic change

Net impact

Time

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Based on Hamilton, Brown & Nolan 2008. FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis

Reference

Models of ecosystem change i.e. cause & effect Ch

ange

in v

eget

ation

indi

cato

r

The big questions for tracking changeIF land management practices are the CAUSE of observed and measured EFFECTS* i.e. changes in veg condition over time

THEN• How can we make sense over time of

– Land use change?– The plethora and diversity of LMPs?– The effects of these LMP on veg?

* Noting interactions with climatic drivers i.e. natural dynamics

Present land use type & extent

Source: DAFF 2008

Present land use

Source: DAFF 2008

1. Dryland livestock grazing (58%)2. Minimal use (15%)3. Other protected areas including indigenous use (13%)4. Nature conservation (6.9%)5. Dryland agriculture (3.1%)6. Timber production (2.0%)7. Water (1.8%)8. Irrigated agriculture (0.4%)9. Intensive uses (0.3%)

Regional changes in land use over time

Source: ABARES 2010• Mainly intensification of agricultural production• Some conversion to conservation and minimal use

Present land use

1. Dryland livestock grazing (58%)2. Minimal use (15%)3. Other protected areas including indigenous use (13%)4. Nature conservation (6.9%)5. Dryland agriculture (3.1%)6. Timber production (2.0%)7. Water (1.8%)8. Irrigated agriculture (0.4%)9. Intensive uses (0.3%)

Source: DAFF 2008

These 5 land uses utilise native veg ~90% of area of Australia – BUT what are their effects on native vegetation condition?

Present vegetation type & extent

Source: DAFF 2008

Present vegetation

1. Shrublands and heathlands (37%)2. Grasslands & minimally modified pastures (33%) 3. Forests and woodlands (19%) 4. Annual crops and highly modified pastures (9%) 5. Other non-native vegetation (1.7%)6. Plantations (0.2%) and 7. Horticultural trees and shrubs (0.1%).

Source: DAFF 2008

Present vegetation

1. Shrublands and heathlands (37%)2. Grasslands & minimally modified pastures (34%) 3. Forests and woodlands (19%) 4. Annual crops and highly modified pastures (8%) 5. Plantations (0.2%) and 6. Horticultural trees and shrubs (0.1%).

Source: DAFF 2008

These 3 native veg types cover ~90% of area of Australia – BUT how can we assess change and trend in condition?

Snapshots of gross change in extent of native veg types

Pre-European

Present or extantMVG and NVIS

Source: SEWPAC

Conversion from native to non-native and non-vegetated due to land use change

Reporting change in condition using

Veg type (NVIS/MVG)

Pre-European and Present vegetation

Source: ABARES 2013

Cleared native

vege

tation

Veg type

Remnant nati

ve

vege

tation

Naracoorte Coastal Plain bioregion

NVIS: National Vegetation Information SystemMVG: Major Vegetation Groups

Region: Naracoorte Coastal Plain

Drivers for information on changes in vegetation condition?

Public and private interests

• NRM & Forest policy and program design e.g. biodiversity

and sustainability

• Assessing resource condition e.g. degradation and resilence

• Monitoring and reporting and improvement e.g. SoE & SOFR,

environmental accounting

Wider community interests

• Educators, researchers, students …

What is condition and transformation?

• Change in a plant community (type) due to effects of land management practices:

– Structure

– Composition

– Regenerative capacity

• Transformation = changes to vegetation condition over time• Condition and transformation can be assessed relative to fully

natural a reference state

Vegetation condition

Vegetation Assets States and Transitions (VAST) framework

VIVIVIIIIII0

Native vegetationcover

Non-native vegetationcover

Increasing modification caused by use and management

Transitions = trend

Vegetation thresholds

Reference for each veg type (NVIS)

VAST - A framework for compiling & reporting vegetation condition

Condition states

Residual or unmodified

Naturally bare

Modified Transformed Replaced -Adventive

Replaced - managed

Replaced - removed

Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90

Diagnostic attributes of VAST states:• Vegetation structure• Species composition• Regenerative capacity

NVIS

Vegetation condition – a snapshot

Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90

NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using VAST framework

/ replaced

/ unmodified

Reporting change in condition using veg

type (NVIS/MVG),

and vegetation condition

(VAST)

Source: ABARES 2013

Cleared native

vege

tation

Veg type

Remnant nati

ve

vege

tation

Veg condition

derived fr

om effects

of land m

anagement

practice

s

Veg type

NVIS: National Vegetation Information SystemMVG: Major Vegetation Groups

The big questions for tracking changeIF land management practices are the CAUSE of observed and measured EFFECTS* i.e. changes in veg condition over time

THEN• How can we make sense over time of

– Land use change?– The plethora and diversity of LMPs?– The effects of these LMP on veg?

* Noting interactions with climatic drivers i.e. natural dynamics

VAST framework = Effects • VAST classifies and orders the magnitude and intensity of LMP• VAST gives clues re how to classify targets for action into core set

of vegetation condition indicators that affected by LMPs

LUMIS framework = Cause • LUMIS classifies all LMP into focal themes:

– Vegetation/plants, soil, landform, water, animal, air

• LUMIS classifies all vegetation-related LMPs into five objectives:1. Establish and rehabilitate2. Improve and maintain growth and condition3. Harvest plant products and remove waste and weeds 4. Monitor health, vitality and condition5. No activity or interventions

Links between VAST and LUMIS

LUMIS = Land Use and Management Information System

TARGET of action

Purpose of ACTIVITY eg. establish, maintain, remove,

protect, monitor

Management PRACTICE category

Specific ACTION by manager

METHOD used to undertake the activityeg. select, control, handle, legislate, sample

Business, Infrastructure

Vegetation/

plants, animals, soil, water, air

Level 5

Level 4

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1

Source: ACLUMP ABARES (Land Use and Information Management System (LUMIS) 2010

Making sense of land management practices

Focus on what the land manager is doing that effect veg condition

TARGET of action

1. Soil hydrological status2. Soil physical status3. Soil chemical status4. Soil biological status5. Fire regime6. Reproductive potential7. Overstorey structure8. Understorey structure9. Overstorey composition10. Understorey composition

Soil

Vegetation

LUMIS

PURPOSE of activity is to

Focus on what the land manager is doing

Soil

Vegetation

Regenerative capacity/ function / processes - VAST

Vegetation structure & Species composition - VAST

1. Soil hydrological status2. Soil physical status3. Soil chemical status4. Soil biological status5. Fire regime6. Reproductive potential7. Overstorey structure8. Understorey structure9. Overstorey composition10. Understorey composition

LUMIS

PURPOSE of activity is to

Define goal /target or purpose

Do it

Assess the situation and

context

Recognise an opportunity /

problem

Choose a method/ practice

Change and trend are not acceptable

Direction of change and

trend is acceptable

Sources of information

Citizen science

Making sense of land manager activities

Occupation

Relaxation

Anthropogenic change

Net impact

Time

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Based on Hamilton, Brown & Nolan 2008. FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis

Reference

Models of ecosystem change i.e. cause & effect Ch

ange

in v

eget

ation

indi

cato

r

Aim of VAST-2

Indigenous land management

First explorers

Grazing

Deg

ree

of

mod

ifica

tion

Logging

Cropping

Site 1

Site 2

Site 3

Time

Reference state

Long term rainfall

Long term disturbance e.g. wildfire, cyclones

Revegetation

VAST classes

Cell /pulse grazing

VAST-2 System

Tracking change in vegetation condition

Condition components (3)

[VAST]

Attribute groups (10)

[LUMIS]Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state

(22)

Regenerative capacity

Fire regime Area /size of fire foot prints

Number of fire starts

Soil hydrology Soil surface water availability

Ground water availability

Soil physical state

Depth of the A horizon

Soil structure

Soil nutrient state

Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility

Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility

Soil biological state

Recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling

Surface organic matter, soil crusts

Reproductive potential

Reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species

Reproductive potential of understorey structuring species

Vegetation structure

Overstorey structure

Overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community

Overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community

Overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand

Understorey structure

Understorey top height (mean) of the plant community

Understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community

Understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant

Species Composition

Overstorey composition

Densities of overstorey species functional groups

Relative number of overstorey species (richness) of indigenous to exotic species

Understorey composition

Densities of understorey species functional groups

Relative number of understorey species (richness) of indigenous to exotic species

1

3

10

22

Dia

gnos

ticatt

ribut

es

VegetationTransformation

score

Attrib

ute

grou

ps

VegetationStructure

(27%)

Overstorey

(3)

Understorey

(3)

SpeciesComposition

(18%)

(2)

UnderstoreyOverstorey

(2)

RegenerativeCapacity

(55%)

Fire

(2)

Reprodpotent

(2)

Soil

Hydrology

(2)

Biology

(2)

Nutrients

(2)

Structure

(2) Indicators

VAST-2 hierarchy

Step 7Add the indices for the three components to generate total transformation

index for the ‘transformation site’ for each year of the historical record . Validate using Expert Knowledge

Step 1aUse a checklist of 22 indicators to compile

changes in LU & LMP* and plant community responses over time

Transformation site

Step 1cEvaluate impacts on the plant community

over time

Step 1bEvaluate the influence of climate, soil and

landform on the historical record

Step 2Document responses of 22

indicators over time

Step 4Document the reference states for 22 indicators

Step 3aLiterature review to determine the

baseline conditions for 22 indicators

Step 3cCompile indicator data for 22 indicators for reference site

Step 3bEvaluate the influence of climate, soil and landform for the reference site

Reference state/sites

Step 5Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the

‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change

Step 6Derive weighted indices for the three components for the ‘transformation

site’ i.e. regenerative capacity (58%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%) by adding predefined indicators

General process for tracking changes VAST-2 system

* LU Land useLMP Land management practices

• Network of collaborators• Ecologists, academics, land managers, environmental historians,

educators

• Inputs• Reference state • Land use• Land management practices• Natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods, cyclones, average rainfall

1900-2013 etc• Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought• Observations and quantitative measures of effects of management

practices:• Include written, oral, artistic, photographic, survey plots and remote sensing

Resources needed to compile and analyse an historical record for each site

Importance of dynamics

Rainfall assumed to be main driver of system dynamics• Period 1900 - 2013• Average seasonal rainfall (summer, autumn, …)• Rainfall anomaly is calculated above and below the mean• Two year running trend line fitted

WA Wheatbelt BOM rainfall anomaly 1900-2010(modelled 5 km resolution)

Derived from monthly modelled rainfall data obtained from http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/silo/

Rainfall anomaly relative to mean

Method: VAST-2

Species

composition

LU = Land Use, LMP = Land Management Practices

Effects on indicators of VAST diagnostic attributes

LU & LMPYear

Time

Vegetation structure Regenerative

capacity

Cause

Filling in the gaps in effects at the site level

Quadrat or pixel

Land unit

Land system

Sub-bioregion

Bioregion

Certainty levels

Coarse

Fine

Low

Low

Medium

Medium

High

Sources of information

Granularity of information

Certainty level standards used to compile historic record

Certainty level standards

Spatial precision(Scale)

Temporal precision(Year of observation)

Attribute accuracy(Land use, land

management practices, effects on condition)

HIGH "Definite”

Reliable direct quantitative data.

Code: 1

Reliable direct quantitative data.

Code: 4

Reliable direct quantitative data.

Code: 7

MEDIUM "Probable

"

Direct (with qualifications) or strong

indirect data.

Code: 2

Direct (with qualifications) or strong

indirect data.

Code: 5

Direct (with qualifications) or strong

indirect data.

Code: 8

LOW "Possible"

Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory

observations. More data needed.

Code: 3

Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory

observations. More data needed.

Code: 6

Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory

observations. More data needed.

Code: 9

Year Source Year and reliability

LU & LMP Source: LU & LMP

Reliability of LMP

sources and spatial

accuracy

Effects of use and land management practices on

structure, composition and function

SourceEffects

Reliability of effects

and spatial accuracy

1800

1840

2013

Pre-contact

First contact

Current year

LU = Land Use, LMP = Land Management Practices

Results: VAST-2 historical record

Case studies VAST-2

Case studies 1 and 2

• Region: Credo Station, Great Western Woodlands (GWW),

WA

• Reference state: Salmon Gum woodland overstorey , saltbush and bluebush understorey and ground layer

Photo: Harry Recher

Salmon Gum reference state

Case studies 3 and 4

Region: Taroom Shire, Brigalow Belt South, Qld

Reference state: Brigalow woodland overstorey , mixed open shrubland understorey , grassy and forb ground layer

Photo: Griffith University

Brigalow woodland reference state

Potters Flat, Taroom Shire, Qld

Wanaringa, Taroom Shire, Qld

VAST/VAST-2 is a useful tool for:

• Understanding and reporting the effects of agricultural and forest management practices on native vegetation

• Evaluating a site’s potential to be restored under different social-ecological conditions e.g. 20% forest canopy cover

• Assisting land managers understand relationships between:– natural dynamic cycles, degrees of disturbance/change, management

interventions and changes in ecological function that underpin ecosystem services

Potential effects of land use change and management at paired sites

Observed / measured change due to land management

Observed / measured change due to other causes including natural processes

VAST

-2 tr

ansf

orm

ation

inde

x

100

80

60

40

20

0

time now time n +

Production forestry continues unchanged Change from production forestry to conservation

Reference

Where to next?

• More sites• Scaling up to the landscape scale• Modelling the transformation of landscapes

– Historical – Current– Future

Sources of information to populate indicators

View 3D imageryPotential to derive information on tree heights, tree crown size and depth, strata, regeneration

mulligans_flat.kmz

Scaling up from sites to landscape levels Static layers

• first contact by European explorers• slope & relief derived from 30m DEM• aspect classes derived from 30m DEM• weathering layer• digital atlas of soils+• pre-European vegetation types (NVIS)

Time series response variables• rainfall anomaly (post 1900)• state-wide & national land tenure• Remote sensing (FPC, fire, bare

ground)*• native veg (tree) layers*• state-wide & national land use

• sheep DSE• cattle DSE• cropping• urban areas• Plantations• nature conservation reserves• indigenous protected areas

• Infrastructure• railways• roads

• fire regime (fire area & No. fire starts)*• other

TERN AusCover*TERN Soils+

Conclusions

• Vegetation condition is dynamic and can be tracked• Plant communities are not static nor irreparable• Vegetated landscapes can be altered, maintained in a modified

state, restored ... as management preferences change• As a national system VAST-2 has value for:

– Engaging land managers as citizen scientists – Synthesizing information (quantitative and qualitative)– Examining interactions between natural dynamics /disturbance and

land management– ‘Telling the story’ of vegetation condition and transformation

More info & Acknowledgements

More informationhttp://www.vasttransformations.com/

Acknowledgements• University of Queensland, Department of Geography Planning and Environmental

Management for ongoing research support• TERN ACEAS funded my sabbatical fellowship at the University of Queensland,

Brisbane in 2010-11• CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences for hosting me as a visiting research scientist, Canberra

in 2010-11• Many public and private land managers, land management agencies, consultants

and researchers have provided data and information