TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 2013

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2013_en.pdf

Nicolas Maystre

UNCTAD

16 September 2013

nicolas.maystre@unctad.org

Presentation for the University of International Business and Economics,

China

Adjusting to thechanging dynamics of

the world economy

Key points:

The global economy is in a structural crisis: reverting to pre-crisis growth strategies is neither possible nor desirable

Export-led development strategies are no longer viable. More balanced development strategies with a greater role for domestic and regional demand needed – this requires reconsideration of role of wages and public sector in development process

5 years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, taming finance remains a priority: financial systems need to serve the ‘real’ economy and facilitate adaptation to new global demand patterns

The global economy remains far away from a strong, sustained and balanced growth path

World output growth, selected country groups, annual percentage change, 2007–2013

Economic slowdown also affects developing countries

Output growth, selected developing regions, annual percentage change, 2007–2013

Developing country exports and developed country imports remain far from their pre-crisis dynamisms

Volume of export and imports, selected country groups, 2004–2013 (index numbers, 2005–100)

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Volume of exports

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Volume of imports

Developed countriesEmerging market economiesEmerging market economies: trend 2004–2008

Developed countriesEmerging market economiesDeveloped countries: trend 2004–2008

• Developed countries are going back to ‘business as usual’ – this presages protracted period of slow growth

• No growth decoupling of developing countries and continued high vulnerability; yet, even if developed countries were to persevere with their current policy stance, developing countries could still improve their economic performance by providing coordinated economic stimuli

• The share of developing countries in global GDP has strongly increased and the economic size of the largest developing countries makes larger role of domestic demand viable

• South-South trade has strongly increased; yet, it has not become an autonomous engine of growth

Structural nature of the present crisis is reflected in changing dynamics of the world economy

GDP growth in alternative policy scenarios (%)

Baseline: Projection of current trends without policy changes nor shocks Scenario A: All countries follow more expansionary demand-driven policiesScenario B: Developed economies maintain current policy stances and only

developing and transition economies follow more expansionary policies, although stimulus is smaller than in Scenario A

World Developed economies China

Strong growth performance over past decade made share of developing countries in global GDP increase strongly

Shares in global GDP at market prices, selected countries and country groups, 1970–2012 (per cent)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Developed economies Transition economies

Developing economies

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Africa East, South-East and South Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

The direction of global trade has shifted towards a greater importance of South-South trade

Shares in world exports, selected country groups, 1995–2012 (per cent)

• The rapid rise of commodity prices starting in 2002 has boosted economic growth in commodity producing countries• The expansionary phase of the commodity price supercycle may have come to an end, but a price collapse is unlikely to occur in the next few years• The main challenge for commodity producing countries remains appropriating a fair share of the resource rents and using the revenues to reduce income inequality and spur industrial production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

All commoditiesAll commodities (in euros)Minerals, ores and metalsCrude petroleum

0

100

200

300

400

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

FoodTropical beveragesVegetable oilseeds and oilsAgricultural raw materials

2013 2013

Prolonged period of slow growth in developed countries would make export-led development strategies unviable –

Need for more balanced development strategies with greater role for domestic and regional demand

Key challenges: Economic size: some of the most populous countries likely to have large enough domestic markets – others will need to rely more on regional markets

Switch in growth strategy becomes unsustainable if it triggers unsustainable trade deficits: investment by domestic firms to narrow gap between composition of domestic/regional supply and that of domestic/regional demand

To realize growth potential of domestic markets, domestic purchasing power must be created, not through increased household debt, but through wage growth and policies that favour the domestic middle class

Financing the real economy for meeting the new patterns of demand

_____________________________________________________________________________

A redesign of development strategies involves an expansion of productive capacities and their adaptation to new demand patters, all of which requires investment and its financing

Key challenges: Capital flows management: pragmatic exchange-rate management and capital-account management needed to reduce vulnerability to external financial shocks

Domestic financial systems need to channel credit towards productive investment in the real sector: central banks should pursue a credit policy, rather than just a monetary policy

MONETARY BASE AND BANK CLAIMS ON THE PRIVAT SECTOR, 2001–2012

(Per cent of GDP)

Monetary policies in developed countries did not lead to more domestic credit, but contributed to international

financial instability

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

A. United States

Bank claims on private sector Monetary base (right scale)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

B. Euro area

2012 2012

International capital flows are highly volatile

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Net capital inflows, billions of dollars

Developed economies

Transition economiesDeveloping economies

Net private inflowsNet private inflows, excl. equity outflows

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2012

Net private capital inflows toemerging economies, per cent of GDP

• Monetary policy alone is not sufficient to stimulate investment

• Central banks should play an active role in the implementation of a growth and development strategy through a credit (and not only monetary) policy

• Reform at the national and global levels is needed not only to improve financial and economic stability but to ensure that sufficient investment finance goes into productive activities and helps developing countries address the new development challenges

Financing the real economy Policy conclusions