Traffic Impact Study, Premier Gold Mines Limited, Hardrock ...

Traffic Impact Study, Premier Gold Mines Limited, Hardrock Property

Prepared for: Premier Gold Mines Limited

Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Ltd.

November 2014

<Original signed by>



<Original signed by><Original signed by>

TRAFFIC IMPACT STUDY, PREMIER GOLD MINES LIMITED, HARDROCK PROPERTY

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Table of Contents

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1.1 1.1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 1.1 1.2 SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................. 1.1

2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS ................................................................................................. 2.2 2.1 ROADS AND TRAFFIC CONTROL .................................................................................... 2.2 2.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME .............................................................................................................. 2.2 2.3 EXISTING TRAFFIC OPERATIONS ...................................................................................... 2.5

3.0 TRAFFIC FORECASTS ..................................................................................................... 3.7 3.1 HORIZON YEARS AND BACKGROUND GROWTH ......................................................... 3.7 3.2 SITE TRIP GENERATION ...................................................................................................... 3.7 3.3 SITE TRIP DISTRIBUTION ...................................................................................................... 3.8 3.4 SITE TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT & TOTAL TRAFFIC ................................................................ 3.9

4.0 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ................................................................................... 4.10 4.1 SITE ACCESS ..................................................................................................................... 4.10 4.2 TRAFFIC OPERATIONS ..................................................................................................... 4.10

5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 5.15

List of Appendices Appendix A – Traffic Data Appendix B – Existing Synchro Analysis Output Appendix C – Future Synchro Analysis Output List of Tables

Table 1 – Highway 11 – 2011 Seasonal Weekly Traffic Volumes .......................................................... 2.3 Table 2 – Highway 11 – Historical Daily Traffic Volumes ........................................................................ 2.3 Table 3 – Existing Base Year (2014) Conditions – Peak Hour LOS Analysis .......................................... 2.6 Table 4 – Employee Trips By Shift .............................................................................................................. 3.7 Table 5 – Site Generated Traffic ............................................................................................................... 3.8 Table 6 – Employee Distribution by Municipality and Related Trip Distribution ................................ 3.9 Table 7 – 2018 Future Total Traffic – Site Traffic Peak Hours – Peak Hour LOS Analysis ................... 4.11 Table 8 – 2023 Future Total Traffic – Site Traffic Peak Hours – Peak Hour LOS Analysis ................... 4.12 Table 9 – 2028 Future Total Traffic – Site Traffic Peak Hours – Peak Hour LOS Analysis ................... 4.12 Table 10 – 2018 Future Total Traffic – Observed Peak Hours – Peak Hour LOS Analysis ................. 4.13 Table 11 – 2023 Future Total Traffic – Observed Peak Hours – Peak Hour LOS Analysis ................. 4.13 Table 12 - 2028 Future Total Traffic – Observed Peak Hours – Peak Hour LOS Analysis .................. 4.14


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List of Figures

Figure 1 – Site Location Figure 2 – Conceptual Site Plan Figure 3A – Existing Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Observed Peak Hours Figure 3B – Existing Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 4A – 2018 Future Background Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Observed Peak Hours Figure 4B – 2018 Future Background Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 5A – 2023 Future Background Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Observed Peak Hours Figure 5B – 2023 Future Background Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 6A – 2028 Future Background Peak Hour Traffic Volume – Observed Peak Hours Figure 6B – 2028 Future Background Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 7 – Site Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 8A – 2018 Future Total Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 8B – 2018 Future Total Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Observed Peak Hours Figure 9A – 2023 Future Total Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 9B – 2023 Future Total Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Observed Peak Hours Figure 10A – 2028 Future Total Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Site Traffic Peak Hours Figure 10B – 2028 Future Total Peak Hour Traffic Volumes – Observed Peak Hours


Introduction

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND

Premier Gold Mines Limited (Premier) retained Stantec Consulting Ltd. (Stantec) to prepare a Traffic Impact Study (TIS) for the Hardrock Mine property. The Hardrock property (Project) is located in a relatively remote area of Ontario, approximately 280 km north east of Thunder Bay. The Project is located just a few kilometers south of the community of Geraldton (at the intersection of Highway 584 and Highway 11), which is part of the amalgamated Town of Greenstone, Ontario (Figure 1).

Highway 11 traverses the property in an east ‐ west direction immediately north of the project site. Small town sites related to historic mine operations lie to the northwest (MacLeod Townsite) and to the east (Hard Rock Townsite).

The Project is generally anticipated to include an open pit mining operation with an on-site processing facility, waste rock and tailings disposal sites, water treatment facility and serviced plant site. As the ore body is located beneath Highway 11, a highway re-alignment will also be required. This will also require the relocation of the existing Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard (Secondary Highway 584) intersection and the addition of a mine site access on Highway 11. A conceptual site plan for the realignment of Highway 11, which also illustrates the approximate location of the subject site access, is presented as Figure 2.

1.2 SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES

The scope of this Study includes reviewing existing Highway 11 traffic conditions as well as preparing and analyzing traffic forecasts related to the development of the proposed mine. Due to the rural nature of this section of Highway 11, the Study Area has been limited to the Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard intersection and the proposed site access intersection on Highway 11.

It is anticipated that the mine could be operational by 2018. Therefore, and in accordance with the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) Traffic Impact Study Guidelines, the future horizon years to be analyzed include 2018 (opening year) and five and 10 years after opening (i.e. 2023, and 2028). The objective of the Study is to identify and recommend road, safety, and traffic control improvements that are required to accommodate the proposed re-alignment.

Figure 1N.T.S Impacted Section of Highway 11 Site LocationN

Figure 2N.T.S Conceptual Site PlanN


Existing Conditions


2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS

2.1 ROADS AND TRAFFIC CONTROL

The existing road and traffic control characteristics for the subject section of Highway 11 and Michael Power Boulevard are described below:

• Highway 11 is designated part of the Trans-Canada Highway and the subject section of the highway is currently defined by MTO as “Commuter Tourist Recreation” as of 2011. Prior to its current road pattern designation, this section of Highway 11 was previously defined as “Low Tourist” and “Intermediate Tourist”;

• In the Study Area, Highway 11 runs east-west and has a two lane rural cross-section with gravel shoulders, white edge of pavement markings, a dashed yellow centre line except in no-passing zones, and a posted maximum speed limit of 70 km/h;

• Michael Power Boulevard (Secondary Highway 584) is currently defined by the MTO as “Suburban Commuter” as of 2010;

• In the Study Area, Michael Power Boulevard runs north-south and has a two lane cross-section, gravel shoulders, white edge of pavement markings, a dashed yellow centre line except in no-passing zones, and a posted maximum speed limit of 80 km/h; and

• The intersection of Highway 11 and Michael Power Boulevard is a four leg intersection (south leg is named Hardrock Road) with stop control on the northbound and southbound approaches and illumination. An eastbound auxiliary left-turn lane and channelized southbound and westbound right-turn lanes are provided.

2.2 TRAFFIC VOLUME

Traffic data was provided by MTO, including intersection turning movement counts for Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard for 2011 and 2014. Additionally, weekly volume summaries for the 2011 spring, summer and fall seasons were provided for the locations of Highway 11, 1.0 km west of Michael Power Boulevard, and 31.0 km west of Longlac CNR Rail.

The MTO document “Provincial Highways – Traffic Volumes 1988 – 2010” has also been reviewed in regard to historical volumes and trends. All traffic data has been provided for reference in Appendix A.


Existing Conditions


A summary of the most recent Highway 11 daily traffic volumes is presented in Table 1.

Table 1 Highway 11

2011 Seasonal Weekly Traffic Volumes1 Location Spring Summer Fall 1.0 km West of Michael Power Boulevard (Highway 584) LHRS/Offset: 17880/0.0 TVIS#: 11648

April 18 – April 24

ADT: 1,393 AADT: 1,379

DHV: 135 Directional: 45/55

August 18 – August 24

ADT: 1,690 AADT: 1,589


September 16 – September 22

ADT: 1,767 AADT: 1,785


31.0 km West of Longlac CNR O/H LHRS/Offset: 17870/29.38 TVIS#: 11645

April 18 – April 24

ADT: 1,558 AADT: 1,542


August 18 – August 24

ADT: 1,848 AADT: 1,737


September 16 – September 22

ADT: 2,125 AADT: 2,146


1LHRS – linear highway referencing system; TVIS – traffic volume information system; ADT – average daily traffic; AADT –

annual average daily traffic; DHV – design hour volume

The volumes above are considered “unofficial” by MTO since they have not been fully vetted within their data processing system.

Historical daily traffic volumes along Highway 11 are presented in Table 2.

Table 2 Highway 11

Historical Daily Traffic Volumes1 Location Year AADT SADT WADT

From MacLeod Provincial Park Road to Michael Power Boulevard (Highway 584) 3.2 km Section

2000 1,950 2,500 1,600 2001 1,950 2,550 1,600 2002 1,950 2,550 1,600 2003 1,950 2,550 1,600 2004 1,850 2,350 1,500 2005 1,900 2,350 1,600 2006 1,900 2,350 1,600 2007 1,900 2,350 1,600 2008 1,900 2,350 1,600 2009 1,900 2,300 1,600 2010 1,900 2,300 1,600


Existing Conditions


Table 2 Highway 11

Historical Daily Traffic Volumes1 Location Year AADT SADT WADT

From Michael Power Boulevard (Highway 584) to Goldfield Road 4.7 km Section

2000 1,700 2,250 1,300 2001 1,500 2,000 1,150 2002 1,500 2,000 1,150 2003 1,500 2,000 1,150 2004 1,450 1,950 1,100 2005 1,400 1,750 1,200 2006 1,650 2,050 1,400 2007 1,400 1,750 1,200 2008 1,600 2,000 1,350 2009 1,350 1,650 1,150 2010 1,500 1,850 1,250

1AADT – annual average daily traffic; SADT – summer average daily traffic; WADT – weekday average daily traffic

The most recent daily traffic volume data shows that the subject section of Highway 11 carries less than 2,000 vehicles per day. This can be considered to be a very low volume highway, and one that operates well within capacity. For context, a two lane highway that exhibits near capacity or capacity conditions during the peak hours would typically have a daily traffic volume in the order of 15,000 vehicles per day.

The existing base year (2014) peak hour traffic volumes for the intersection of Highway 11/ Michael Power Boulevard are shown in Figure 3A. The a.m. peak hour is 9:15 – 10:15 a.m., and the p.m. peak hour is 2:00 – 3:00 p.m.

Since the proposed mine site trips are not anticipated to occur during the existing peak hours, the base year peak hour traffic volumes have been prorated according to the daily traffic counts to estimate the hourly volumes at other times (i.e. during the times in which the peak hour site trips will occur). The temporal aspects of the site traffic characteristics are discussed in detail in Section 3.2 of the report. The prorated traffic volumes, which represent background traffic during the hours when site traffic would be highest, i.e. site traffic peaks of 6:30 – 7:30 a.m. and 5:30 – 6:30 p.m., are illustrated in Figure 3B.

Highway 584 (Michael Power Boulevard)

92 69 65 75

41 8 43 22 42 70 67 37 8 24 27 25 50 68

1 1Highway 11 Highway 11

27 36 65 64 37 24 6 7 1 81 49

1 4 1 6 1

10 13 14 8

9:15 - 10:15 AM 123 Figure 3A2:00 - 3:00 PM 123 N.T.S Existing Base Year (2014) Traffic Volumes

Observed Peak Hours

Hardrock Road

AM 0.32PM 0.84


78 22 21 63

35 7 36 7 35 22 57 12 3 8 9 21 16 57


23 12 55 21 31 8 2 2 0 68 16

1 1 1 5 1

8 4 4 7

6:30 - 7:30 AM 123 Figure 3B5:30 - 6:30 PM 123 N.T.S Existing Base Year (2014) Traffic Volumes

Site Traffic Peak Hours

Hardrock Road


Existing Conditions


2.3 EXISTING TRAFFIC OPERATIONS

The quality of intersection operations is typically measured in terms of level of service (LOS). The LOS is assigned on the basis of average delay per vehicle and includes deceleration delay, queue move-up time, stopped delay, and final acceleration delay. For signalized intersections, LOS ranges from LOS A for 10 seconds or less average delay to LOS F for average delay greater than 80 seconds. For unsignalized intersections, the LOS ranges from LOS A for 10 seconds or less average delay to LOS F for average delay greater than 50 seconds.

Acceptable operations are generally considered to be LOS C or better. However, during peak hours, a LOS D may be considered acceptable for through movements and the overall intersection, and a LOS E may be considered acceptable for turning movements.

Similar to LOS, the v/c ratio for signalized intersections is calculated as a whole (sum of critical movements), and for individual movements. For unsignalized intersections, LOS is only calculated for those movements that conflict with opposing free-flow traffic and is not defined for the intersection as a whole.

While the LOS and v/c ratio for each movement are related, they are calculated independently. Therefore it is possible to have a poor level of service associated with a high v/c ratio. The designation LOS F does not automatically imply that the intersection or movement is over capacity, nor does a LOS better than E automatically imply that unused capacity is available.

To assess the traffic operations during the peak periods, a LOS analysis was undertaken for the Study Area intersection using TrafficWare’s Synchro 8.0 Software, which implements the methods of the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual.

The key parameters and assumptions used within the analysis included:

• Existing lane configurations;

• Heavy vehicle percentages as derived from the traffic data;

• Calculated peak hour factor from traffic data. It is noted that this factor adjusts the hourly volumes to better represent conditions during the peak 15 minutes of intersection operations; and

• Synchro default values for all other inputs.

The results of the operational analysis of the observed peak hour volumes are shown in Table 3. The Synchro analysis outputs have been provided for reference in Appendix B.


Existing Conditions


Table 3 Existing Base Year (2014) Conditions Peak Hour Level of Service Analysis

Intersection Approach/Movement AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour

LOS1 D2 v/c3 Q4 LOS1 D2 v/c3 Q4

Highway 11/ Michael Power Boulevard Unsignalized

EB Left A 7 0.03 1 A 7 0.02 < 1

Through/Right Unopposed Movement

WB Left/Through 5- - - - A < 1 0.00 0

Right (Channelized) Unopposed Movement NB Left/Thru/Right A 10 0.02 1 A 10 0.01 < 1

SB Left/Through A 9 0.05 1 A 9 0.07 2

Right (Channelized) Unopposed Movement 1 Level of Service (A to F representing best to worst); 2 Delay in Seconds; 3 Volume to Capacity ratio; 4 95th Percentile

Queue in Metres; 5 No Left Turn Volume

Under existing base year for the observed peak hours (9:15 – 10:15 a.m., and 2:00 – 3:00 p.m.), the intersection of Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard operates at the highest level of service (LOS A) and with each movement well within its theoretical capacity. Therefore, it can also be concluded that under existing conditions, the lower off peak hour volumes during what would be the site traffic peak times (6:30 – 7:30 a.m., and 5:30 – 6:30 p.m.) would also have the same excellent level of service, but with lower volume to capacity ratios.


Traffic Forecasts


3.0 TRAFFIC FORECASTS

3.1 HORIZON YEARS AND BACKGROUND GROWTH

Based on information provided by Premier, it has been assumed the opening year for mine operations would be 2018. Following MTO Traffic Impact Study Guidelines, periods of five years (2023) and 10 years (2028) after the opening year have been used for the assessment of future conditions.

Through the examination of historical daily volume traffic data, it is clear that there has been no growth on the subject section of Highway 11. To err on the side of caution, a nominal growth rate of 0.5% per year has been used to estimate future background traffic for the following conditions:

• 2018 Opening year - Figure 4A (base year peaks), Figure 4B (site peaks);

• Five years from build-out (2023) – Figure 5A (base year peaks), Figure 5B (site peaks); and

• 10 years from build-out (2028) – Figure 6A (base year peaks), Figure 6B (site peaks).

3.2 SITE TRIP GENERATION

Detailed information regarding the anticipated employee complement and shift times was provided by Premier. It has been assumed that each employee will generate one vehicle trip either to or from the site, and the resultant volume of employee site trips by shift are summarized in Table 4.

Table 4 Employee Trips By Shift1

Personnel

# of Employees/Trips

Shift: Mon – Fri Shift: 7 Days In/7Days

Out Shift: 7 Days In/7Days

Out Arrival:

6:30 – 7:30 a.m. Departure: 4:30 p.m.

Arrival: 5:30 a.m.

Departure: 6:15 p.m.

Arrival: 5:30 p.m.

Departure:6:15 a.m

G&A Service 14 14 8 8 7 7 Technical Services 9 9 6 6 0 0 Maintenance 7 7 10 10 10 10 Supervision Operation 2 2 3 3 2 2 Operation 0 0 38 38 37 37 Mill and Assay Lab 29 29 21 21 21 21

TOTAL 61 61 86 86 77 77 1Assumed one vehicle trip per employee.

GR 0.5%YR 4


94 70 66 77

42 8 44 22 43 71 68 38 8 24 28 26 51 69


28 37 66 65 38 24 6 7 1 83 50

1 4 1 6 1

10 13 14 8

9:15 - 10:15 AM 123 Figure 4A2:00 - 3:00 PM 123 N.T.S 2018 Future Background Traffic Volumes

Observed Peak Hours

Hardrock Road

GR 0.5%YR 4


79 23 21 65

35 7 37 7 36 23 58 12 3 8 9 22 16 59


23 12 56 21 32 8 2 2 0 70 16

1 1 1 5 1

9 4 5 7

6:30 - 7:30 AM 123 Figure 4B5:30 - 6:30 PM 123 N.T.S 2018 Future Background Traffic Volumes


Hardrock Road

GR 0.5%YR 9


96 72 68 78

43 8 45 23 44 73 70 39 8 25 28 26 52 71


28 38 68 67 39 25 6 7 1 85 51

1 4 1 6 1

10 14 15 8


Observed Peak Hours

Hardrock Road

GR 0.5%YR 9


81 23 22 66

36 7 38 7 37 23 59 12 3 8 9 22 17 60


24 12 57 21 33 8 2 2 0 72 16

1 1 1 5 1

9 4 5 7



Hardrock Road

GR 0.5%YR 14


99 74 70 80

44 9 46 24 45 75 72 40 9 26 29 27 54 73


29 39 70 69 40 26 6 8 1 87 53

1 4 1 6 1

11 14 15 9


Observed Peak Hours

Hardrock Road

GR 0.5%YR 14


83 24 22 68

37 7 39 8 38 24 61 13 3 8 9 23 17 62


24 12 59 22 33 8 2 2 0 73 17

1 1 1 5 1

9 4 5 7



Hardrock Road


Traffic Forecasts


As discussed previously, it is shown above that the arrivals/departures of employee site traffic would occur earlier than the existing observed a.m. peak hour and later than the existing observed p.m. peak hour.

With respect to truck traffic, Premier advised that all truck traffic would be contained within the site and there would be no truck traffic travelling to/from Highway 11 via the proposed site access.

The employee trip information was organized into one hour time periods for forecasting and analysis. This represents a conservative approach (err on the high side) whereby all of the shift traffic that would occur within the 5:30 – 7:30 a.m. and 4:30 – 6:30 p.m. two hour periods were combined within one hour periods (assumed 6:30 – 7:30 a.m. and 5:30 – 6:30 p.m. for the purpose of establishing background traffic conditions). The resultant site trip generation within the site peak hours is shown in Table 5.

Table 5 Site Generated Traffic

Assumptions

Vehicle Trips A.M. Site Peak Hour

(6:30 – 7:30 a.m.) P.M. Site Peak Hour (5:30 – 6:30 p.m.)

In Out Total In Out Total • Day shift arrivals and departures

combined for a.m. inbound and p.m. outbound, respectively

• Night shift departures and arrivals used for a.m. outbound and p.m. inbound, respectively

147 77 224 77 147 224

3.3 SITE TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Premier provided information regarding the anticipated home origins for the employees of the proposed mine. This information is presented in Table 6 along with the related directional trip distribution on Highway 11 and Michael Power Boulevard.


Traffic Forecasts


Table 6 Employee Distribution by Municipality and Related Trip Distribution

Municipality To/From Via Percentage

Geraldton/Nakina North Highway 584

(Michael Power Boulevard) 40%

Longlac East Highway 11 40%

Thunder Bay/ Beardmore/

Nipigon West Highway 11 20%

TOTAL 100%

3.4 SITE TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT & TOTAL TRAFFIC

The site traffic was assigned to the Study Area road network based on the trip distribution. The resultant site traffic assignments are illustrated in Figure 7.

To facilitate sensitivity testing of the potential site traffic impacts, two scenarios have been examined for traffic forecasting:

• “Site Traffic Peak Hours” scenario – this forecasts represents a combination of site peak trips with the future background traffic during the site peak hours (i.e. not concurrent with the existing observed peak hours), which can also be considered to be the most likely forecast scenario; and

• “Observed Peak Hours” scenario – this alternative forecast represents a “worst case” by combining the site peak trips with the future background traffic during the observed peak hours. It provides a sensitivity test of a higher volume scenario.

The total traffic volumes for the opening year horizon (2018) are illustrated in Figure 8A and Figure 8B for the “Site Traffic Peak Hours” and “Observed Peak Hours” scenarios, respectively.

The total traffic volumes for the five years after opening year horizon (2023) are illustrated in Figure 9A and Figure 9B, for the “Site Traffic Peak Hours” and “Observed Peak Hours” scenarios, respectively.

The total traffic volumes for the ten years after opening horizon (2028) are illustrated in Figure 10A and Figure 10B, for the “Site Traffic Peak Hours” and “Observed Peak Hours” scenarios, respectively.

Premier Gold Mines Site Access Highway 584 (Michael Power Boulevard)

31 59 31 59

31 15 29 118 62 118 62 59 59 31 59 31

118 62 Highway 11 Highway 11 (Re-Aligned)

59 31 15 29 15 62 118 62 118 62 59 31 59 31

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147

To/From % In Out TotalNorth HWY 584 40% AM 147 77 224East HWY 11 40% PM 77 147 224West HWY 11 20%

100%

AM Peak Hour 123 Figure 7PM Peak Hour 123 N.T.S Site Traffic Traffic Volumes



103 79 50 118

66 37 7 36 38 87 23 58 140 119 139 118 71 8 68 52 75 89


82 43 71 50 56 21 15 62 174 83 173 81 91 39 128 46

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147

6:30 - 7:30 AM 123 Figure 8A5:30 - 6:30 PM 123 N.T.S 2018 Future Total Traffic Volumes



116 121 90 129

73 44 22 43 87 98 71 68 189 130 183 129 97 24 86 56 109 99


86 68 82 95 66 65 15 62 184 127 183 123 97 55 140 80

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147

9:15 - 10:15 AM 123 Figure 8B2:00 - 3:00 PM 123 N.T.S 2018 Future Total Traffic Volumes

Observed Peak Hours


105 79 50 120

67 38 7 37 39 89 23 59 141 121 139 120 71 8 68 53 75 90


83 43 73 51 57 21 15 62 175 83 174 82 91 39 129 47

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147




119 123 91 131

74 45 23 44 89 99 73 70 191 132 185 131 97 25 87 57 110 101


87 68 83 96 68 67 15 62 186 129 185 124 97 56 142 81

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147


Observed Peak Hours


107 80 51 121

68 39 8 38 39 90 24 61 142 122 140 121 72 8 68 53 76 91


83 43 74 51 59 22 15 62 176 84 176 82 92 39 131 47

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147




121 124 93 133

75 46 24 45 90 101 75 72 193 133 186 132 98 26 88 58 111 103


88 69 85 98 70 69 15 62 187 130 186 126 98 57 145 82

15 29 29 118

77 147 77 147


Observed Peak Hours


Traffic Impact Assessment


4.0 TRAFFIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT

4.1 SITE ACCESS

For the purposes of this report, it has been assumed that the site access will be at a location along Highway 11 that meets the MTO sight line requirements for a design speed 20 km/h higher than the anticipated posted maximum speed limit of 90 km/h (i.e. design speed 110 km/h).

The peak hour traffic forecasts for the Highway 11/Site Access intersection have been reviewed with regard to the MTO left turn lane warrants as well as the MTO guidelines for determining the need for right turn lanes or tapers. With the relatively low site traffic and low through traffic volumes, it was found that auxiliary left or right turn lanes on Highway 11 would not be required at the site access.

Notwithstanding the results of the technical review of the site access volumes, it would be prudent from a safety perspective to provide a westbound left turn lane (minimum 15m storage, parallel lane, taper, and run-out lane to correspond to the selected design speed) and an eastbound right turn taper and lane on Highway 11 at the proposed site access. The rationale for these improvements relates to the higher operating speeds on this type of highway, the potential for employee traffic to arrive in a relatively short period of time in advance of a shift, and the safety benefits related to maintaining free flow traffic with more uniform speeds on Highway 11 by facilitating turning movements in a separate and exclusive turning lane. The site access leg of the intersection should have one lane inbound and one lane outbound.

In addition, it would be prudent from a safety perspective to provide illumination at the proposed Highway 11/Site Access intersection due to the expected time of arrivals/departures for shift traffic that include night time (dark) conditions. The combination of auxiliary turn lanes and illumination at the subject intersection would be generally consistent with the current design of the Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard intersection.

4.2 TRAFFIC OPERATIONS

A review of the traffic forecasts for both Study Area intersections relative to the Ontario Traffic Manual Book 12 traffic signal justification methodology was conducted and it was found that the traffic forecasts would be well below the traffic volume thresholds used to identify a potential need for signalization. Therefore, an operational analysis was conducted using the same methodology and parameters as in the analysis of existing conditions, which includes stop control on the minor approach to intersections with Highway 11.

For this analysis, it has been assumed that the auxiliary turn lane improvements discussed above would be in place at the proposed employee site access intersection on Highway 11. As well, it has been assumed that with a realignment of Highway 11, the new Michael Power Boulevard




intersection would have the same lane arrangements as under existing conditions with the exception that it would be configured as a T-intersection with no south leg.

The analysis results for the “Site Traffic Peak Hours” scenario are provided in Table 7, Table 8, and Table 9 for the 2018, 2023, and 2028 horizon years, respectively. As a sensitivity test with higher peak hour traffic forecasts, the analysis results for the alternative “Observed Peak Hours” scenario are provided in Table 10, Table 11, and Table 12, for the 2018, 2023, and 2028 horizon years, respectively.

The Synchro analysis outputs have been provided for reference in Appendix C.

Table 7 2018 Future Total Traffic Conditions “Site Traffic Peak Hours” Scenario

Peak Hour Level of Service Analysis


LOS1 D2 v/c3 Q4 LOS1 D2 v/c3 Q4 Highway 11/ Employee Site Access Unsignalized

EB Through Unopposed Movement

Right Unopposed Movement

WB Left A 8 0.08 2 A 8 0.04 1

Through Unopposed Movement NB Left/Right A 9 0.09 2 A 10 0.17 5


EB Left A 8 0.03 1 A 8 0.06 1

Through Unopposed Movement

WB Through Unopposed Movement

Right (Channelized) Unopposed Movement

SB Left A 10 0.01 < 1 B 11 0.06 2

Right (Channelized) A 9 0.09 2 A 9 0.07 2 1 Level of Service (A to F representing best to worst); 2 Delay in Seconds; 3 Volume to Capacity ratio; 4 95th Percentile

Queue in Metres










WB Left A 8 0.08 2 A 8 0.04 1



EB Left A 8 0.03 1 A 8 0.06 1




SB Left A 10 0.01 < 1 B 11 0.07 2


Queue in Metres







WB Left A 8 0.08 2 A 8 0.04 1



EB Left A 8 0.03 1 A 8 0.06 1




SB Left A 10 0.01 < 1 B 11 0.07 2


Queue in Metres




Table 10 2018 Future Total Traffic Conditions

“Observed Peak Hours” Alternative Scenario Peak Hour Level of Service Analysis





WB Left A 8 0.09 2 A 8 0.04 1



EB Left A 8 0.06 1 A 8 0.06 2




SB Left B 11 0.04 1 B 12 0.08 2


Queue in Metres







WB Left A 8 0.09 2 A 8 0.04 1



EB Left A 8 0.06 1 A 8 0.06 2




SB Left B 11 0.05 1 B 12 0.08 2


Queue in Metres










WB Left A 8 0.09 2 A 8 0.04 1



EB Left A 8 0.06 1 A 8 0.06 2




SB Left B 11 0.05 1 B 12 0.08 2


Queue in Metres

The operational analysis results for the “Site Traffic Peak Hours” scenario indicate that during the anticipated peak hours in which the conservatively estimated employee site trips will primarily be occurring (6:30 – 7:30 a.m. and 5:30 – 6:30 p.m.), the Study Area intersections would function at LOS B or better and well within their theoretical capacities during both the a.m. and p.m. peak hours for all horizon years.

Similarly, the sensitivity analysis of the “Observed Peak Hours” scenario, which assumed that the conservatively estimated employee site trips would be added to the observed street peak hour volumes (9:15 – 10:15 a.m., and 2:00 – 3:00 p.m.) also shows that the intersections would operate at LOS B or better and well within capacity during the a.m. and p.m. peak hours for all horizon years. The only differences in the operational measures of effectiveness are slight increases in the volume to capacity ratios.

The operational analysis indicates that the additional traffic generated by the proposed mine development could easily be accommodated with the assumed intersection lane configurations at both the Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard and Highway 11/Site Access intersections.


Conclusions and Recommendations


5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The conclusions of the Traffic Impact Study are as follows:

a) The existing baseline daily traffic volumes on the subject section of Highway 11 are relatively low (most recent data less than 2,000 vehicles per day), and the historical traffic volumes indicate that this area has experienced virtually no growth in traffic since the year 2000.

b) Under existing conditions, the Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard intersection operates at a very good level of service and well within capacity during the weekday a.m. and p.m. peak hours.

c) With the addition of traffic that would be generated by employees and service deliveries of the proposed mine, and with conventional intersection improvements (i.e. auxiliary turn lanes or tapers on Highway 11), it is concluded that the traffic forecasts associated with the proposed development could easily be accommodated at both the Highway 11/Michael Power Boulevard and Highway 11/Site Access intersections in each of the 2018, 2023, and 2028 horizon years.

The recommendations of the Traffic Impact Study are as follows:

a) Provide an auxiliary westbound left turn lane (minimum 15m storage, parallel lane, taper, and run-out lane to correspond to the selected design speed) and an eastbound right turn lane and taper on Highway 11 at the site access, and provide one lane inbound and one lane outbound on the site access leg of the intersection.

b) Once the design alternative for the required realignment of Highway 11 is finalized (through the ongoing Environmental Assessment) along with the location of the proposed mine site access, confirm that the sight distance at the proposed access is acceptable for a highway with a 90 km/h maximum posted speed limit (assumed 110 km/h design speed).

c) Prepare design drawings for the Highway 11/Site Access intersection with the auxiliary turn lane improvements identified in a) above and design drawings for the Highway 11/ Michael Power Boulevard intersection with essentially the same lane arrangements as the existing intersection of these two roads.

Appendix A Traffic Data



Hig

hw

ayL

oca

tio

n D

escr

ipti

on

Dis

tY

ear

Pat

tT

ype

AA

DT

SA

DT

SA

WD

TW

AD

TA

R

2009

LT1,

150

1,50

01,

550

870

0.2

2010

LT1,

200

1,55

01,

600

910

0.7

11LO

NG

LAC

CE

ME

TE

RY

RD

(S)

3.

519

97LT

2,20

02,

950

3,00

01,

650

0.4

1998

LT2,

200

2,95

03,

000

1,65

01.

119

99LT

2,10

02,

800

2,85

01,

600

0.4

2000

LT2,

050

2,75

02,

800

1,55

03.

120

01LT

2,00

02,

700

2,70

01,

500

1.6

2002

LT1,

900

2,55

02,

550

1,45

00.

820

03LT

1,90

02,

550

2,55

01,

450

0.8

2004

IT1,

900

2,40

02,

400

1,55

01.

220

05IR

1,80

02,

050

1,95

01,

650

3.5

2006

IR1,

750

2,10

01,

900

1,50

01.

320

07IC

1,75

01,

950

2,00

01,

550

1.8

2008

IC1,

650

1,85

01,

750

1,45

00.

920

09IC

1,65

01,

850

1,85

01,

450

0.9

2010

IC1,

600

1,75

01,

800

1,40

02.

411

LON

GLA

C-C

NR

OH

-E A

BU

T

29.4

1988

CT

R1,

200

1,55

01,

450

1,00

01.

219

89C

TR

1,25

01,

550

1,50

01,

050

0.7

1990

LT1,

250

1,80

01,

700

910

0.9

1991

LT1,

300

1,80

01,

750

960

0.6

1992

LT1,

350

1,85

01,

800

1,00

01.

419

93U

C1,

400

1,45

01,

550

1,25

01.

519

94U

C1,

400

1,50

01,

550

1,30

01.

119

95U

C1,

400

1,50

01,

550

1,30

01.

319

96U

C1,

400

1,50

01,

650

1,35

00.

919

97U

C1,

400

1,45

01,

650

1,30

00.

919

98U

C1,

450

1,55

01,

700

1,40

01.

019

99U

C1,

600

1,70

01,

850

1,50

01.

020

00U

C1,

650

1,75

01,

950

1,55

00.

520

01U

C1,

650

1,75

01,

950

1,55

01.

220

02U

C1,

800

1,90

02,

100

1,70

00.

520

03U

C2,

000

2,10

02,

350

1,90

00.

820

04U

C1,

800

1,90

02,

100

1,70

01.

120

05U

C1,

750

1,85

02,

050

1,65

00.

620

06U

C1,

700

1,80

02,

000

1,60

01.

020

07U

C1,

500

1,60

01,

750

1,40

00.

820

08U

C1,

750

1,85

01,

750

1,65

00.

620

09C

1,55

01,

700

1,75

01,

400

0.4

2010

C1,

800

2,00

02,

000

1,60

00.

611

MC

LEO

D P

RO

VIN

CIA

L P

AR

K R

OA

D

3.2

1988

CT

R1,

600

2,05

01,

950

1,30

01.

619

89C

TR

1,65

02,

050

1,95

01,

400

0.5

1990

LT1,

650

2,40

02,

300

1,20

01.

619

91LT

1,70

02,

350

2,25

01,

250

0.5

1992

LT1,

800

2,50

02,

400

1,35

00.

5

198

8-20

10 T

raffi

c V

olum

es P

ublic

atio

nP

age

234

of 9

92

Hig

hw

ayL

oca

tio

n D

escr

ipti

on

Dis

tY

ear

Pat

tT

ype

AA

DT

SA

DT

SA

WD

TW

AD

TA

R

1993

CT

R1,

850

2,30

02,

200

1,55

00.

919

94C

TR

1,90

02,

450

2,30

01,

600

1.8

1995

CT

R1,

950

2,50

02,

400

1,65

00.

019

96IT

2,00

02,

650

2,55

01,

650

0.4

1997

IT2,

050

2,70

02,

650

1,70

01.

319

98IT

2,10

03,

550

2,70

01,

700

0.0

1999

IT2,

150

2,75

02,

750

1,75

00.

420

00IT

1,95

02,

500

2,50

01,

600

0.4

2001

IT1,

950

2,55

02,

500

1,60

00.

420

02IT

1,95

02,

550

2,50

01,

600

0.0

2003

IT1,

950

2,55

02,

500

1,60

00.

020

04IT

1,85

02,

350

2,35

01,

500

1.4

2005

CT

R1,

900

2,35

02,

250

1,60

00.

020

06C

TR

1,90

02,

350

2,25

01,

600

1.4

2007

CT

R1,

900

2,35

02,

350

1,60

00.

520

08C

TR

1,90

02,

350

2,30

01,

600

0.0

2009

CT

R1,

900

2,30

02,

250

1,60

01.

420

10C

TR

1,90

02,

300

2,20

01,

600

0.9

11S

EC

HW

Y 5

84(N

)TO

GE

RA

LDT

ON

4.

719

97LT

1,55

02,

100

2,10

01,

150

0.4

1998

LT1,

600

2,15

02,

150

1,20

00.

719

99LT

1,65

02,

200

2,25

01,

250

0.7

2000

LT1,

700

2,25

02,

300

1,30

00.

320

01LT

1,50

02,

000

2,05

01,

150

0.4

2002

LT1,

500

2,00

02,

050

1,15

00.

820

03LT

1,50

02,

000

2,05

01,

150

0.8

2004

LT1,

450

1,95

01,

950

1,10

01.

220

05C

TR

1,40

01,

750

1,65

01,

200

1.2

2006

CT

R1,

650

2,05

01,

950

1,40

00.

420

07C

TR

1,40

01,

750

1,70

01,

200

0.4

2008

CT

R1,

600

2,00

01,

950

1,35

00.

720

09C

TR

1,35

01,

650

1,60

01,

150

0.9

2010

CT

R1,

500

1,85

01,

750

1,25

00.

011

GO

LDF

IELD

RD

(S)

40

.619

88C

TR

900

1,15

01,

050

750

1.2

1989

CT

R95

01,

200

1,10

081

00.

819

90C

TR

950

1,15

01,

100

820

1.3

1991

CT

R95

01,

150

1,15

082

01.

819

92C

TR

950

1,15

01,

100

820

1.3

1993

LT95

01,

300

1,25

074

02.

119

94LT

1,40

01,

950

1,95

01,

050

0.9

1995

LT1,

550

2,15

02,

150

1,15

00.

719

96LT

1,85

02,

500

2,50

01,

400

0.5

1997

LT1,

850

2,50

02,

500

1,40

00.

619

98LT

1,80

02,

400

2,45

01,

350

0.6

1999

LT1,

800

2,40

02,

450

1,35

01.

0

198

8-20

10 T

raffi

c V

olum

es P

ublic

atio

nP

age

235

of 9

92

Appendix B Existing Synchro Analysis Output

HCM Unsignalized Intersection Capacity Analysis3: Hardrock Road/Highway 584-Michael Power Boulevard & Highway 11 9/26/2014

9/26/2014 Existing 2014 AM Synchro 8 ReportPage 1

Movement EBL EBT EBR WBL WBT WBR NBL NBT NBR SBL SBT SBRLane ConfigurationsVolume (veh/h) 36 24 4 0 27 22 6 7 0 24 8 37Sign Control Free Free Stop StopGrade 0% 0% 0% 0%Peak Hour Factor 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85Hourly flow rate (vph) 42 28 5 0 32 26 7 8 0 28 9 44PedestriansLane Width (m)Walking Speed (m/s)Percent BlockageRight turn flare (veh) 5Median type None NoneMedian storage veh)Upstream signal (m)pX, platoon unblockedvC, conflicting volume 32 33 152 147 31 149 149 32vC1, stage 1 conf volvC2, stage 2 conf volvCu, unblocked vol 32 33 152 147 31 149 149 32tC, single (s) 4.2 4.1 7.1 6.5 6.2 7.1 6.5 6.2tC, 2 stage (s)tF (s) 2.3 2.2 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.3p0 queue free % 97 100 99 99 100 96 99 96cM capacity (veh/h) 1542 1592 762 728 1050 791 725 1034

Direction, Lane # EB 1 EB 2 WB 1 WB 2 NB 1 SB 1Volume Total 42 33 32 26 15 81Volume Left 42 0 0 0 7 28Volume Right 0 5 0 26 0 44cSH 1542 1700 1592 1700 743 1670Volume to Capacity 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.05Queue Length 95th (m) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2Control Delay (s) 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 9.2Lane LOS A A AApproach Delay (s) 4.2 0.0 9.9 9.2Approach LOS A A

Intersection SummaryAverage Delay 5.3Intersection Capacity Utilization 21.0% ICU Level of Service AAnalysis Period (min) 15

HCM Unsignalized Intersection Capacity Analysis3: Hardrock Road/Highway 584-Michael Power Boulevard & Highway 11 9/26/2014

9/26/2014 Existing 2014 PM Synchro 8 ReportPage 1

Movement EBL EBT EBR WBL WBT WBR NBL NBT NBR SBL SBT SBRLane ConfigurationsVolume (veh/h) 27 37 1 1 25 42 1 6 1 43 8 41Sign Control Free Free Stop StopGrade 0% 0% 0% 0%Peak Hour Factor 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92Hourly flow rate (vph) 29 40 1 1 27 46 1 7 1 47 9 45PedestriansLane Width (m)Walking Speed (m/s)Percent BlockageRight turn flare (veh) 5Median type None NoneMedian storage veh)Upstream signal (m)pX, platoon unblockedvC, conflicting volume 27 41 133 129 41 133 129 27vC1, stage 1 conf volvC2, stage 2 conf volvCu, unblocked vol 27 41 133 129 41 133 129 27tC, single (s) 4.2 4.1 7.1 6.5 6.2 7.1 6.5 6.3tC, 2 stage (s)tF (s) 2.3 2.2 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.4p0 queue free % 98 100 100 99 100 94 99 96cM capacity (veh/h) 1555 1581 788 751 1036 820 750 1034

Direction, Lane # EB 1 EB 2 WB 1 WB 2 NB 1 SB 1Volume Total 29 41 28 46 9 100Volume Left 29 0 1 0 1 47Volume Right 0 1 0 46 1 45cSH 1555 1700 1581 1700 782 1460Volume to Capacity 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.07Queue Length 95th (m) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7Control Delay (s) 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 9.7 9.3Lane LOS A A A AApproach Delay (s) 3.1 0.1 9.7 9.3Approach LOS A A


Appendix C Future Synchro Analysis Output

HCM Unsignalized Intersection Capacity Analysis3: Highway 11 & Highway 584-Michael Power Boulevard 10/15/2014

2018 AM (Most Likely Scenario) Synchro 8 ReportPage 1

Movement EBL EBT WBT WBR SBL SBRLane ConfigurationsVolume (veh/h) 43 39 68 7 8 71Sign Control Free Free StopGrade 0% 0% 0%Peak Hour Factor 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85Hourly flow rate (vph) 51 46 80 8 9 84PedestriansLane Width (m)Walking Speed (m/s)Percent BlockageRight turn flare (veh)Median type None NoneMedian storage veh)Upstream signal (m)pX, platoon unblockedvC, conflicting volume 80 227 80vC1, stage 1 conf volvC2, stage 2 conf volvCu, unblocked vol 80 227 80tC, single (s) 4.2 6.4 6.2tC, 2 stage (s)tF (s) 2.3 3.5 3.3p0 queue free % 97 99 91cM capacity (veh/h) 1481 731 972

Direction, Lane # EB 1 EB 2 WB 1 WB 2 SB 1 SB 2Volume Total 51 46 80 8 9 84Volume Left 51 0 0 0 9 0Volume Right 0 0 0 8 0 84cSH 1481 1700 1700 1700 731 972Volume to Capacity 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.09Queue Length 95th (m) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1Control Delay (s) 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 9.1Lane LOS A A AApproach Delay (s) 3.9 0.0 9.1Approach LOS A


HCM Unsignalized Intersection Capacity Analysis6: Site Access & Highway 11 10/15/2014


Movement EBT EBR WBL WBT NBL NBRLane ConfigurationsVolume (veh/h) 21 29 118 23 15 62Sign Control Free Free StopGrade 0% 0% 0%Peak Hour Factor 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92Hourly flow rate (vph) 23 32 128 25 16 67PedestriansLane Width (m)Walking Speed (m/s)Percent BlockageRight turn flare (veh)Median type None NoneMedian storage veh)Upstream signal (m)pX, platoon unblockedvC, conflicting volume 54 304 23vC1, stage 1 conf volvC2, stage 2 conf volvCu, unblocked vol 54 304 23tC, single (s) 4.1 6.4 6.2tC, 2 stage (s)tF (s) 2.2 3.5 3.3p0 queue free % 92 97 94cM capacity (veh/h) 1551 631 1054

Direction, Lane # EB 1 EB 2 WB 1 WB 2 NB 1Volume Total 23 32 128 25 84Volume Left 0 0 128 0 16Volume Right 0 32 0 0 67cSH 1700 1700 1551 1700 932Volume to Capacity 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.09Queue Length 95th (m) 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.2Control Delay (s) 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 9.2Lane LOS A AApproach Delay (s) 0.0 6.3 9.2Approach LOS A



2018 PM (Most Likely Scenario) Synchro 8 ReportPage 1


Direction, Lane # EB 1 EB 2 WB 1 WB 2 SB 1 SB 2Volume Total 89 99 57 39 40 72Volume Left 89 0 0 0 40 0Volume Right 0 0 0 39 0 72cSH 1517 1700 1700 1700 623 996Volume to Capacity 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.07Queue Length 95th (m) 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.8Control Delay (s) 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 8.9Lane LOS A B AApproach Delay (s) 3.6 0.0 9.7Approach LOS A


HCM Unsignalized Intersection Capacity Analysis6: Highway 11 10/15/2014






2018 AM (Employee Worst Case Scenario) Synchro 8 ReportPage 1










2018 PM (Employee Worst Case Scenario) Synchro 8 ReportPage 1

























































































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