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Traffic Progression Models

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    )ehicle 'o)e'ent characteristics #ro' upstrea' signal to do&nstrea' signal need to be

    considered and si'ulated* +ra##ic Progression !odels 'odel the )ehicle 'o)e'ent

    characteristics and help in the lin%ing o# signals* First, the concept o# platoon, platoon )ariablesis discussed and then platoon ratio is de#ined &hich is reuired #or deter'ination o# arri)al type*

    +hen, the pheno'enon o# platoon dispersion and platoon dispersion 'odel is introduced #or

    understanding dispersion beha)ior o# the )ehicles* Finally, one o# the platoon dispersion 'odelsi*e*, Roberson"s platoon dispersion 'odel is discussed, &hich esti'ates the )ehicle arri)als at

    do&nstrea' locations based on an upstrea' departure pro#ile*

    Characterizing Platoon

    $ )ehicle Platoon is de#ined as a group o# )ehicles tra)elling together* $ )ehicle Platoon is

    sho&n in Fig* 1*

    Variables describing platoon

    +he )arious )ehicle platoon characteristics or )ariables include platoon size, platoon head&ay,platoon speed and inter-arri)al head&ay* Platoon beha)iour and distribution patterns could be

    identi#ied &ith respect to these para'eters* +he )arious platoon characteristics are illustrated in

    Fig* 2*

    Figure 1$ )ehicle Platoon

    http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfPlatoonhttp://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfPlatoonVariableshttp://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfPlatoonhttp://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfPlatoonVariables
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    Figure !Illustration o# Platoon Variables

    Platoon "ize #$p%It is the nu'ber o# )ehicles in a platoon*

    Platoon &ead'a( #hp%It is the a)erage )alue o# head&ays &ithin a platoon*

    Platoon "peed #Vp%It is the a)erage speed o# all the )ehicles &ithin a platoon*

    Inter)Arri*al #IA%It is the head&ay bet&een the last )ehicle o# the preceding platoon

    and the #irst )ehicle o# the #ollo&ing platoon*

    Various )alues o# platoon head&ay and inter-arri)al bet&een consecuti)e platoons can be used todeter'ine appropriate critical head&ay #or platoon identi#ication and detection* .nce the criticalhead&ay is deter'ined, platoon size and platoon speed can be detected to calculate the signal

    ti'ing ad(ust'ent to acco''odate the approaching )ehicle platoon* It is o# great i'portance to

    select a proper )alue o# the critical head&ay since a s'all change in the critical head&ay &illgenerate tre'endous changes in the resultant platoon characteristics* /se o# a large critical

    head&ay &ill result in a large a)erage platoon size and reuire a large detection area in order to

    detect large )ehicle platoons* Conseuently, a large detection area leads to an increase o# detector

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    installation and 'aintenance costs* .n the other hand, use o# a s'all critical head&ay &ill result

    in a s'all a)erage platoon size, but 'ay not pro)ide su##icient )ehicle platoon in#or'ation*

    +here#ore, it is desired to #ind an appropriate critical head&ay so that su##icient platoonin#or'ation can be obtained &ithin a proper detection area* Research has sho&n that head&ays

    are rarely less than 0* seconds or o)er 10 seconds at di##erent tra##ic )olu'es* !any

    in)estigations ha)e been done on #inding the e##ects o# critical head&ays o# 1*2, 1*, 2*1 and 2*seconds on platoon beha)iour and these in)estigations ha)e sho&n that a critical head&ay o# 2*1

    seconds corresponding to a tra##ic )olu'e o# 100 )ehicles per hour per lane )phpl3 can be

    ta%en #or data collection*

    Platoon +atio

    +he platoon ratio denoted as Rp, is a nu'erical )alue used to uanti#y the uality o# progressionon an approach* +he platoon ratio represents the ratio o# the nu'ber o# )ehicles arri)ing during

    the green phase to the proportion o# the green inter)al o# the total cycle* +his is gi)en by

    1

    3

    &here, P Proportion o# all )ehicles during green ti'e, C Cycle length, g 5##ecti)e green

    ti'e* Its )alue ranges #ro' 0* to 2*0* It is used in the calculation o# delays, capacity o# an

    approach* +he arri)al types range #ro' 1 &orst platoon condition3 to 6 the best platooncondition3* +he platoon ratio appro7i'ates the arri)al type and the progression uality* For

    e7a'ple 8C! 20003 has suggested the #ollo&ing relationship bet&een platoon ratio and arri)al

    &hich is as sho&n in +able 1*

    Table 1Relationship bet&een $rri)al +ype and Platoon Ratio

    $rri)al Range o# platoone#ault )alue

    Progression uality

    typeratio

    1 0* Very poor

    2 0*66 /n#a)orable

    1*000 Rando' arri)als

    http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#table1http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#table1http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#table1
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    4 1* Fa)orable

    1*66 8ighly #a)orable

    6 2*000 57ceptional

    Platoon ,ispersion

    $s a platoon 'o)es do&nstrea' #ro' an upstrea' intersection, the )ehicles disperse i*e*, thedistance bet&een the )ehicles increase &hich 'ay be due to the di##erences in the )ehicle speeds,

    )ehicle interactions lane changing and 'erging3 and other inter#erences par%ing, pedestrians,

    etc*,3* +his pheno'enon is called asPlatoon Dispersion*

    ispersion has been #ound to be a #unction o# the tra)el ti'e #ro' a signal to a do&nstrea'

    signal or other do&nstrea' location3 and the length o# the platoon* +he longer the tra)el ti'e

    bet&een signals, the greater the dispersion* +his is intuiti)ely logical since the longer the tra)el

    ti'e, the 'ore ti'e opportunity3 there is #or di##erent dri)ers to de)iate #ro' the a)erage tra)el

    ti'e* $ si'ple case o# Platoon ispersion is as sho&n in Fig* * Fro' the #igure, it can be

    obser)ed that, initially the pea% o# the platoon is high and the length o# the platoon is

    co'parati)ely s'all, but as the platoon progresses do&nstrea', the pea% o# the platoon

    decreases and the length increases*

    http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfPlatoonDispersionhttp://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfPlatoonDispersion
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    Figure -$ si'ple case o# Platoon ispersion

    Various tra##ic engineering so#t&are li%e +R$:;

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    Figure .$ +R$:;

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    )arious tra##ic si'ulation so#t&are* Research has already been conducted on the applicability o#

    platoon dispersion as a reliable tra##ic 'o)e'ent 'odel in urban street net&or%s* !ost o# the

    research has sho&n that Robertson"s 'odel o# platoon dispersion is reliable, accurate, and robust*

    +obertson/s Platoon ,ispersion Model

    +he basic Robertson"s recursi)e platoon dispersion 'odel ta%es the #ollo&ing 'athe'atical #or'

    2

    3

    &here, arri)al #lo& rate at the do&nstrea' signal at ti'e t, departure #lo& rate at

    the upstrea' signal at ti'e t-+, + 'ini'u' tra)el ti'e on the lin% 'easured in ter's o# unit

    steps + 3, a)erage lin% tra)el ti'e, n 'odeling ti'e step duration, is the

    s'oothing #actor gi)en by=

    3

    platoon dispersion #actor unit less3 tra)el ti'e #actor unit less3 5uation sho&sthat the arri)al #lo&s in each ti'e period at each intersection are dependent on the departure

    #lo&s #ro' other intersections* :ote that the Robertson"s platoon dispersion euation 'eans that

    the tra##ic #lo& , &hich arri)es during a gi)en ti'e step at the do&nstrea' end o# a lin%, is a

    &eighted co'bination o# the arri)al pattern at the do&nstrea' end o# the lin% during the

    pre)ious ti'e step and the departure pattern #ro' the upstrea' tra##ic signal + seconds

    ago *

    Fig* gi)es the graphical representation o# the 'odel* It clearly sho&s that predicated #lo& rate

    at any ti'e step is a linear co'bination o# the original platoon #lo& rate in the corresponding

    ti'e step &ith a lag ti'e o# t3 and the #lo& rate o# the predicted platoon in the step i''ediately

    preceding it* ;ince the dispersion 'odel gi)es the do&nstrea' #lo& at a gi)en ti'e inter)al, the

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    'odel needs to be applied recursi)ely to predict the #lo&* ;eddon de)eloped a nu'erical

    procedure #or platoon dispersion* 8e re&rote Robertson"s euation as,

    43

    Figure 0>raphical Representation o# Robertson"s Platoon ispersion

    !odel

    +his euation de'onstrates that the do&nstrea' tra##ic #lo& co'puted using the Robertson"splatoon dispersion 'odel #ollo&s a shi#ted geo'etric series, &hich esti'ates the contribution o#

    an upstrea' #lo& in the inter)al to the do&nstrea' #lo& in the inter)al* $success#ul application o# Robertson"s platoon dispersion 'odel relies on the appropriate

    calibration o# the 'odel para'eters* Research has sho&n that the tra)el-ti'e #actor is

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    dependent on the platoon dispersion #actor * /sing the basic properties o# the geo'etricdistribution o# 5uation , the #ollo&ing euations ha)e been deri)ed #or calibrating the

    para'eters o# the Robertson platoon dispersion 'odel*

    3

    5uationde'onstrates that the )alue o# the tra)el ti'e #actor is dependent on the )alue o#

    the platoon dispersion #actor and thus a )alue o# 0*? as assu'ed by Robertson results in

    inconsistencies in the #or'ulation* Further, the 'odel reuires calibration o# only one o# the'

    and the other #actors can be obtained subseuently*

    6

    3

    &here, is the standard de)iation o# lin% tra)el ti'es and is the a)erage tra)el ti'e

    bet&een upstrea' and do&nstrea' intersections* 5uation de'onstrates that tra)el ti'e #actor

    can be obtained %no&ing the a)erage tra)el ti'e, ti'e step #or 'odeling and standard de)iation

    o# the tra)el ti'e on the road stretch*

    3

    5uation#urther per'its the calculation o# the s'oothing #actor directly #ro' the standard

    de)iation o# the lin% tra)el ti'e and ti'e step o# 'odeling* +hus, both and can be

    'athe'atically deter'ined as long as the a)erage lin% tra)el ti'e, ti'e step #or 'odeling and itsstandard de)iation are gi)en*

    http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertsonhttp://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertson2http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertson2http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertson4http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertson4http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertsonhttp://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertson2http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1111_nptel/543_TrProg/plain/plain.html#qfRobertson4
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    $umerical Eample 1

    In a case study, the a)erage tra)el ti'e #or a particular stretch &as #ound out to be 22*? seconds,

    standard de)iation is *91 and 'odel ti'e step duration is 10 sec* Find out the Robertson"s

    'odel para'eters and also the #lo& at do&nstrea' at di##erent ti'e steps &here the upstrea'#lo&s are as gi)en as=

    *

    "olution

    >i)en, +he 'odel ti'e step duration n10sec, a)erage tra)el ti'e 322*?sec, standard

    de)iation 3*91* Fro' euations abo)e*

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    2pstream Flo's

    ;ince the 'odelling ti'e step duration is gi)en as n10 sec, the gi)en upstrea' #lo&s can be

    &ritten as #ollo&s=

    .n si'ilar lines , , , can be &ritten*

    ,o'nstream Flo's

    .n the do&nstrea', at 10 sec the #lo& &ill be zero since the 'odelling step duration is 10 sec*

    8ence the do&nstrea' #lo&s can be &ritten as #ollo&s*

    ;i'ilarly, do&nstrea' #lo&s can be &ritten till ?0 sec* :ote that since n10 sec, + is ta%en in

    units o# n* +he 'ini'u' tra)el ti'e +3 is gi)en as

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    Calculating on si'ilar lines, &e get

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    +he total upstrea' )ehicles in 60 sec is ?9* $nd total do&nstrea' )ehicles in ?0 sec is ?9* +hat

    is, all ?9 )ehicles co'ing #ro' upstrea' in 6 inter)als too% inter)als to pass the do&nstrea'*

    $umerical Eample !

    In a case study, the a)erage tra)el ti'e #ro' the upstrea' point to 1st do&n&ard point point in

    bet&een upstrea' and do&nstrea'3 &as #ound out to be 22*? seconds and #ro' upstrea' pointto do&n&ard point end point3 &as #ound out to be 2*? seconds , standard de)iation is *91 and

    'odel ti'e step duration is 10 sec* Find out the Robertson"s 'odel para'eters and also the #lo&

    at do&nstrea' at di##erent ti'e steps &here the upstrea' #lo&s are as gi)en belo&*

    *

    "olution

    +his proble' is si'ilar to the earlier proble'* .nly there are 2 do&nstrea' points gi)en in this*For the #irst do&nstrea' point, upstrea' )alues o# #lo& gi)en in the proble' &ill be used,

    &hereas #or the do&nstrea' point, the #lo& #ro' the do&nstrea' point is to be used*

    8ence at do&nstrea' point, #lo& in the #irst inter)al is zero and at the do&nstrea')alue, #lo& is zero #or #irst 2 inter)als* +he calculations ha)e been done in e7cel and the

    #ollo&ing sho&s the results*

    /pstrea' Vol* #or in sec*3 :o* o# Vehicles

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    10 20

    20 10

    0 1

    40 1?

    0 14

    60 12

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    34

    ;'oothing Factor F 0*?

    @ag +i'eFor In Aet&een Point3 20 sec

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    @ag +i'eFor 5nd Point3 0 sec

    o&nstrea' Volu'e o&nstrea' Volu'e

    At in bet'een Point At End Point

    in seconds3 in seconds3

    10 0 10 0*00

    20 1*66 20 0*00

    0 11*2 0 12*26

    40 14*1? 40 11*4

    0 15615 0 1*9

    60 14*69 60 176-4

    0 12*? 0 1*06

    ?0 2* ?0 1*12

    90 0*9 90 4*99

    100 0*1 100 1*

    0*00 110 0*44

    33647 120 0*09

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    3363.

    Four graphs are plotted belo&* +he #irst graph sho&s the upstrea' pro#ile, the second sho&s thedo&nstrea' pro#ile at in bet&een point, the third sho&s the do&nstrea' pro#ile at the end point*

    +he last graph sho&s the co'parison o# all the three*

    Conclusion

    Initially, the concept o# platoon and platoon )ariables &as discussed* +he platoon )ariables are

    reuired #or the deter'ination o# critical head&ay &hich #urther helps in platoon identi#ication*

    +hen, the platoon ratio &as de#ined &hich helps us in identi#ying the arri)al type* @ater, platoondispersion 'odel &as discussed &hich 'odel the departure pro#ile o# the do&nstrea' )ehicles

    based on the upstrea' departure pro#ile* Finally, Robertson"s platoon dispersion 'odel is

    discussed &ith the help o# nu'erical e7a'ples* +he Robertson"s platoon dispersion 'odel

    esti'ates the do&nstrea' )olu'e at di##erent ti'e inter)als &hich can be used #or the lin%ing o#the signals and opti'ization o# signal ti'ings*

    +eferences

    1* 8igh&ay Capacity !anual* Transportation Research Board* :ational Research Council,

    Bashington, *C*, 2000*

    2* < iang, @ ;hou, and 5 aniel*A Platoon-based Traffic Signal Timing Algorithm for

    Major-Minor Intersection Types* +ransportation Research Part A 40, 2006*

    * $ !anar and D > Aaass* Traffic lo! Theory and Traffic flo! sim"lation models*

    +ransportation Research Record= 166, 1996*

    4* F Eiao, 8

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    * 8 Ra%ha and ! Farzaneh* #alibration of TRA$S%T Traffic Dispersion Model: Iss"es and

    Proposed Sol"tions* Virginia +ech +ransportation Institute, 2004*

    6* R 8 ;ho&ers*In&estigation and 'nhancement of models that describe the flo! of traffic

    on arterial streets* $ Ph** +hesis sub'itted to the /ni)ersity o# Florida,4,,9, 2002*

    * B Bey*Model form"lation and sol"tion algorithm of traffic signal control in an "rban

    net!or(* Co'puters, 5n)iron'ent and /rban ;yste's, 24, 2000*

    Ac8no'ledgments

    I &ish to than% 'y student !r* Chetan Du'ar and !s* D ;ra)ya #or their assistance inde)eloping the lecture note, and 'y sta## !r* Rayan in typesetting the 'aterials* I also &ish tothan% se)eral o# 'y students and sta## o# :P+5@ #or their contribution in this lecture*

    Prof) Tom *) Mathe! +,.-,+-/


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