Tragedy in the Tragedy in the making making ??

Michael E. DeGolyerMichael E. DeGolyerDirector, Hong Kong Transition ProjectDirector, Hong Kong Transition Project

Professor of Government & International StudiesProfessor of Government & International Studies9 Dec 2009/9 Jan 20109 Dec 2009/9 Jan 2010

In 2003 over half a In 2003 over half a million people million people demonstrateddemonstrated

There was no violence, though minister’s There was no violence, though minister’s cars were surrounded and prevented cars were surrounded and prevented

from leavingfrom leaving

2003 Demands:2003 Demands:

20032003

•Stop Article 23 legislation Stop Article 23 legislation •Protect freedoms, Protect freedoms, especially of the pressespecially of the press

•Hold incompetent Hold incompetent ministers accountable: ministers accountable: Dismiss themDismiss them

20032003• Resistance led by academics (Article 23 Resistance led by academics (Article 23

Concern Group) and NGOs Concern Group) and NGOs • Reputations for community mindedness Reputations for community mindedness

and idealism and idealism • Concern for Hong Kong’s prosperity and Concern for Hong Kong’s prosperity and

stability apparentstability apparent• Democrats seens as positive force even Democrats seens as positive force even

though critical and calling for proteststhough critical and calling for protests

3 key contexts3 key contexts1.1. SARS surprise from mainland censoring SARS surprise from mainland censoring

made freedom of the press literally a life made freedom of the press literally a life or death freedom or death freedom

2.2. Economic collapse of March-May made Economic collapse of March-May made stakes clear: personal & family survival stakes clear: personal & family survival depended on government competence & depended on government competence & freedom of informationfreedom of information

3.3. Belief that Tung Chee-hwa was Belief that Tung Chee-hwa was incompetent. HE was Hong Kong’s incompetent. HE was Hong Kong’s governance problem governance problem

3 key differences3 key differences1.1. Government-business collusion not an Government-business collusion not an

issue issue 2.2. Personal business of FS was an issue. Personal business of FS was an issue.

(car purchase before tax increase) (car purchase before tax increase) Unfairness not seen as a system issue.Unfairness not seen as a system issue.

3.3. Personal view of Sec of Security was Personal view of Sec of Security was an issue. (Democracy produced Hitler)an issue. (Democracy produced Hitler)

Chief Executive’s choice of Chief Executive’s choice of ministers seen as main ministers seen as main problem, not the system. problem, not the system.

Change the CE, problems Change the CE, problems solvedsolved

2003 effects2003 effects

•Massive turnout, no violenceMassive turnout, no violence•Academics and NGOs seen as Academics and NGOs seen as

moderates and trust in them highmoderates and trust in them high•Government withdrew Article 23 Government withdrew Article 23

legislationlegislation•Ministers resigned, Tung retreatsMinisters resigned, Tung retreats

2003 effects2003 effects

•Academics organize a new party Academics organize a new party (Civic Party)(Civic Party)

•Democrats triumph in 2003 Democrats triumph in 2003 District Council elections and 2004 District Council elections and 2004 Legco electionsLegco elections

•Tung resigns (2005), replaced by Tung resigns (2005), replaced by civil service veterancivil service veteran

2005-20082005-2008• Government support went up considerably Government support went up considerably

from March 2005from March 2005• Government submitted a 2005 reform plan Government submitted a 2005 reform plan

that a near majority supported, after the factthat a near majority supported, after the fact• Democrats got blamed for obstruction when Democrats got blamed for obstruction when

vetoedvetoed• Democrats ran candidate for CE in 2007. Democrats ran candidate for CE in 2007.

Obstruction and negative reputation from Obstruction and negative reputation from reform veto reduced, but not eliminated. reform veto reduced, but not eliminated.

20082008• Government was on track to reduce democratic Government was on track to reduce democratic

seats from 26 to 21-22 in 2008 Legco seats from 26 to 21-22 in 2008 Legco election . . . until business-government election . . . until business-government collusion issue exploded with post-retirement collusion issue exploded with post-retirement hiring of ex-housing director by developerhiring of ex-housing director by developer

• 2008 Legco election, Democrats cut to 23 seats 2008 Legco election, Democrats cut to 23 seats from 26, despite government bungle, poor DAB from 26, despite government bungle, poor DAB campaigncampaign

• New, radical populist party rises (LSD) on back New, radical populist party rises (LSD) on back of wealth gap, government-business collusionof wealth gap, government-business collusion

Situation nowSituation now• Public now thinks government in pocket Public now thinks government in pocket

of big businessof big business• Public now thinks Hong Kong Public now thinks Hong Kong

governance problem not a person, but governance problem not a person, but a systema system

• Growing frustration of lower income Growing frustration of lower income groups (before, lower income groups groups (before, lower income groups more supportive of government). more supportive of government).

Situation nowSituation now•More students in lower income More students in lower income

groups instead of oldstersgroups instead of oldsters•Students becoming radicalized Students becoming radicalized •LSD leading breakdown in social LSD leading breakdown in social

restraints by throwing objects at CE restraints by throwing objects at CE •LSD insists participating in Legco and LSD insists participating in Legco and

other government processes is futileother government processes is futile

Scenario 2010-2011Scenario 2010-2011• Civic Party legitimizes LSD position on futility of Civic Party legitimizes LSD position on futility of

participation in Legco by joining resignation participation in Legco by joining resignation gambit gambit

• Loss of 2-4 seats in by-election. Low turnout Loss of 2-4 seats in by-election. Low turnout delegitimizes results. Legco as representative delegitimizes results. Legco as representative and check on CE and government damagedand check on CE and government damaged

• Restraints on LSD now removed. Must lead Restraints on LSD now removed. Must lead movement and stay in public view, so radicalizes movement and stay in public view, so radicalizes further. Attacks government as corrupt and further. Attacks government as corrupt and owned by business. Attacks gain credibilityowned by business. Attacks gain credibility

Scenario 2010-2011Scenario 2010-2011• Government passes “reform” plan that makes Government passes “reform” plan that makes

2012 elections a “farce” according to LSD. Civic 2012 elections a “farce” according to LSD. Civic Party breaks up or becomes like Citizens Party Party breaks up or becomes like Citizens Party (ineffective, leaderless and soon, gone)(ineffective, leaderless and soon, gone)

• Democratic Party damaged by distrust among CP Democratic Party damaged by distrust among CP supporters (did DP members really do their best to supporters (did DP members really do their best to help in the by-election?). Loses radicals to LSD. help in the by-election?). Loses radicals to LSD.

• Many moderate democrats radicalized or Many moderate democrats radicalized or demoralized demoralized

• Remaining moderate democrats have no one to Remaining moderate democrats have no one to vote for, no leaders, no organization. vote for, no leaders, no organization.

Spiral to tragedySpiral to tragedy• Bad economy reduces opportunity for youth Bad economy reduces opportunity for youth

and studentsand students• Mainlanders perceived to “crowd out” Hong Mainlanders perceived to “crowd out” Hong

Kong students from university, jobsKong students from university, jobs• Government discredited in terms of Government discredited in terms of

competence or legitimacycompetence or legitimacy• Government becomes more arrogant and out Government becomes more arrogant and out

of touch with only shattered, ineffectual of touch with only shattered, ineffectual democrats left, unable to stop governmentdemocrats left, unable to stop government

Spiral to tragedySpiral to tragedy• Either no reform, or current “reform” Either no reform, or current “reform”

leaving FCs untouched and DCs with leaving FCs untouched and DCs with appointees and DC members in Legco appointees and DC members in Legco “elected” by method ensuring no “elected” by method ensuring no democrats in seatsdemocrats in seats

• Government further delegitimizedGovernment further delegitimized• LSD demonstrates and attacks LSD demonstrates and attacks

government continually, but increasingly government continually, but increasingly seen as ineffectual or just campaigning for seen as ineffectual or just campaigning for 2012 election (self-interested)2012 election (self-interested)

Spiral to TragedySpiral to Tragedy• Students denounce LSD as useless and only Students denounce LSD as useless and only

interested in votes in 2012 electioninterested in votes in 2012 election• Frustration builds, direct action demands Frustration builds, direct action demands

riserise• Economic downturn and/or wealth gap Economic downturn and/or wealth gap

increasesincreases• Job opportunities for students constrictJob opportunities for students constrict• Alienation and sense of hopelessness buildsAlienation and sense of hopelessness builds

Spiral to TragedySpiral to Tragedy•Violence begins late 2010 or 2011 Violence begins late 2010 or 2011 •Attacks on rich, on luxury cars, Attacks on rich, on luxury cars,

luxury shops first, then escalates luxury shops first, then escalates to attacks on government officials, to attacks on government officials, government buildingsgovernment buildings

•Government cracks down, Government cracks down, populace demonstrates, violence populace demonstrates, violence flares, police respondflares, police respond

RepercussionsRepercussions•Democrats discredited as equivalent Democrats discredited as equivalent

to violent, ideological 1960s leftiststo violent, ideological 1960s leftists•Democrats discredited. Not having Democrats discredited. Not having

Hong Kong’s best interest at heartHong Kong’s best interest at heart•Moderates turn to whoever offers to Moderates turn to whoever offers to

restore order and increase legitimacy restore order and increase legitimacy of governmentof government

RepercussionsRepercussions• Either Henry Tang as CE in 2012 (exacerbating Either Henry Tang as CE in 2012 (exacerbating

delegitimization of government and belief in delegitimization of government and belief in corrupt big business domination) Possibility of corrupt big business domination) Possibility of violence increasesviolence increases

• Or CY Leung or Regina Ip elected as CE in 2012 Or CY Leung or Regina Ip elected as CE in 2012 who leads reform of corporate voting and restores who leads reform of corporate voting and restores belief in legitimacy of government while making belief in legitimacy of government while making democrats look like violence prone idealogues democrats look like violence prone idealogues who cannot be trusted with Hong Kong’s future. who cannot be trusted with Hong Kong’s future.

• Pan-democratic movement shattered. Democratic Pan-democratic movement shattered. Democratic parties become mere handful in Legco parties become mere handful in Legco

Can Tragedy be Can Tragedy be avoided?avoided?

Allies & pressuresAllies & pressures• LP and many businesses (Bus & Professional LP and many businesses (Bus & Professional

Federation) support end of corporate votingFederation) support end of corporate voting• DAB supports end of corporate votingDAB supports end of corporate voting• Henry Tang has conceeded principle of Henry Tang has conceeded principle of

expanding FC franchise with his everyone expanding FC franchise with his everyone with two votes someday remark. Challenge with two votes someday remark. Challenge to prove government sincerity by ending to prove government sincerity by ending corporate voting in 2012corporate voting in 2012

Allies & pressuresAllies & pressures• Isolate big business, non-competitive FC seats by Isolate big business, non-competitive FC seats by

challenging them to defend: Non-competition challenging them to defend: Non-competition and corporate votes where some directors get and corporate votes where some directors get say and others do not (unfairness)say and others do not (unfairness)

• Government-business collusion and corrupt dealsGovernment-business collusion and corrupt deals• Hammer away at growing likelihood of unrest if Hammer away at growing likelihood of unrest if

reform not made reform not made • LET the LSD resign and refer to them as LET the LSD resign and refer to them as

destructive of legitimacy and good order, also as destructive of legitimacy and good order, also as betrayers of pan-democrat’s ability to check betrayers of pan-democrat’s ability to check governmentgovernment

Allies & PressuresAllies & Pressures• Expand franchise, widen representation of FCsExpand franchise, widen representation of FCs• Research proves this INCREASES support for abolition Research proves this INCREASES support for abolition

of FCsof FCs• Push for everyone to have a second vote in FCs OR Push for everyone to have a second vote in FCs OR

for FCs to be abolished OR consolidated to abolitionfor FCs to be abolished OR consolidated to abolition• Corporates must believe they will either hand over Corporates must believe they will either hand over

power to their employees in the FC seats, or they power to their employees in the FC seats, or they must compete like other corporates abroad in the GC must compete like other corporates abroad in the GC seats by funding pro-business parties and seats by funding pro-business parties and candidates. Alternative is violence, weak candidates. Alternative is violence, weak government, alienated youthgovernment, alienated youth

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