Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–1198

Trajectories of deforestation, coffee expansion and displacement ofshifting cultivation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam

Patrick Meyfroidt a,*, Vu Tan Phuongb, Hoang Viet Anhc

a F.R.S. – FNRS & Universite catholique de Louvain – UCLouvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaıtre Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM),

Place Pasteur 3, bte L4.03.08, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgiumb Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences (VAFS), Dong Ngac, Tu Liem District, Hanoi City, Viet Namc Research Institute for Forest Ecology and Environment (RIFEE), Dong Ngac, Tu Liem District, Hanoi City, Viet Nam

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:

Received 24 May 2012

Received in revised form 23 January 2013

Accepted 16 April 2013

Keywords:

REDD+

Land use policies

Agricultural commodity booms

Ethnic marginalization

Remote sensing

A B S T R A C T

Production of commodities for global markets is an increasingly important factor of tropical

deforestation, taking over smallholders subsistence farming. Measures to reduce deforestation and

convert shifting cultivation systems towards permanent crops have recently been strengthened in

several countries. But these changes have variable environmental and social impacts, including on ethnic

minorities. In Vietnam, although a forest transition – i.e. shift from shrinking to expanding forest cover –

occurred at the national scale, deforestation fronts and agricultural colonization for commodity crops –

a.o. coffee – still dominated the Central Highlands plateaus. Previous studies suggested that the

dominant land use changes in that region were on the one hand the acquisition and conversion of

agricultural lands to perennial crops for external markets by capital-endowed Kinh households – the

majority ethnic group in Vietnam – and on the other hand the corresponding displacement of poor

households of ethnic minorities relying on shifting cultivation towards the forest margins. This study

tested this hypothesis by using remote sensing to analyze land use and cover changes and deforestation

trajectories in the coffee-growing area in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces over 2000–2010. Land use

changes were linked with socioeconomic dynamics using secondary statistics and spatial modelling. Net

deforestation reached �0.31% y�1 of the total area between 2000 and 2010. Deforestation was indeed

mainly directly caused by shifting cultivation for annual crops, but this was partly driven indirectly by

expansion of coffee and other perennial crops over agricultural lands. Displacement of shifting

cultivation into the forest margins, pushed by market crops expansion, was the spatial manifestation of

the marginalization of local ethnic minorities and poor migrants, pushed by capital-endowed migrants.

This marginalization is a long-standing process rooted in the colonization and development strategy for

the highlands followed since colonial times. Over the late 2000s, rapid deforestation was strongly

reducing the benefits of national-scale forest recovery, and might shift the country back to net losses of

natural forest. Implications for policies that may affect deforestation are discussed.

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1. Introduction

Tropical forests support human livelihoods, constitute sourcesof raw materials, harbours of biodiversity and carbon reservoirs(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Tropical deforestationis a crucial part of global environmental change and a challenge forsustainability of human societies (FAO, 2010). Smallholderscultivating food for subsistence or for local markets, usually usingshifting cultivation, were often held as the primary agents ofdeforestation throughout the 1960s to 1980s (Rudel et al., 2009).Over the recent decades, agricultural expansion to produce

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +32 10 472992.

E-mail address: patrick.meyfroidt@uclouvain.be (P. Meyfroidt).

0959-3780/$ – see front matter � 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.04.005

commodities for global markets became an increasingly importantfactor of tropical deforestation (DeFries et al., 2010; Lambin andMeyfroidt, 2011). Political efforts to control and reduce deforesta-tion have recently been strengthened in several countries, e.g. inBrazil and Indonesia (Macedo et al., 2012; Edwards et al., 2011) andcoordinated internationally, among others through the impulse ofthe proposed REDD+ mechanisms (Venter and Koh, 2012). InSoutheast Asia in particular, land zoning policies that restrictedagricultural activities on forestry lands have contributed to theconversion of uplands agricultural systems towards permanentcrops, and to decreasing deforestation in several places (Fox et al.,2009; Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2011). But agricultural commoditybooms, policy schemes to reduce deforestation and transitionsfrom shifting cultivation towards permanent crops may haveimportant social impacts on livelihoods of specific groups,

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–11981188

including uplands dwellers and ethnic minorities (Cramb et al.,2009). These changes may contribute to raise average incomes butalso to widen inequities, to marginalization of already poorcommunities, and increased insecurity of livelihoods throughexposure to unstable global markets. Conversion of shiftingcultivation mosaics to permanent crops also creates significantenvironmental impacts, including sometimes increasing defores-tation (Ziegler et al., 2009a). If labour demand in expanding crops issmall, shifting cultivators may move their fields elsewhere,possibly encroaching into forest in what is known as ‘‘indirectland use change’’ (Lapola et al., 2010). Thus, in order to be effectiveand equitable, policies to promote sustainable land uses have to begrounded on accurate understanding of the land use processes andsocial dynamics involved in deforestation and of their possibleeffects on livelihoods. Despite the vast literature on tropical landuses, surprisingly few studies focus on land sources for thedifferent types of expanding agricultural lands (Gibbs, 2012),although this constitutes a prerequisite for understanding the landuse dynamics in an area.

In Vietnam, after decades of deforestation, a forest transition –i.e. a shift from shrinking to expanding forest cover – occurred inthe early 1990s at the national scale (Meyfroidt and Lambin,2008a,b). But reforestation occurred mainly in the northeasternand northwestern mountains and midlands, the central AnnamiteMountains, as well as in some rehabilitated mangroves, whileactive deforestation fronts still dominated the plateaus of theCentral Highlands region (Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2008a). Highdeforestation rates were attributed to important immigration,through state colonization programmes in the 1970s and 1980sand then spontaneously in the 1990s and 2000s, and thedevelopment of market crops (coffee, rubber, pepper, cashew,and others) (De Koninck, 1999). The Central Highlands hold most ofthe remaining forests with high biomass and biodiversity value inVietnam (Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2008a). Forest transitions ofteninvolved displacement of land uses from reforesting countriestowards other countries through imports of agricultural and woodproducts (Meyfroidt et al., 2010). Such international displacementof land uses indeed contributed to the forest transition in Vietnam(Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2009). This displacement can alsooccur domestically, from reforesting regions towards so-called

Fig. 1. Study site in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. (a) Location of the study site with id

2010 Aster images, with outlines of the district boundaries. (c) Forestry land zoning, e

‘‘facilitating regions’’ supplying increasing amounts of resourcesand goods (Pfaff and Walker, 2010). The potential role of theCentral Highlands of Vietnam as a facilitator for the reforestation ofthe rest of the country remains unclear.

The main objectives of this study are (i) to measure andcharacterize land cover changes and especially deforestationtrajectories in a study area in the Central Highlands of Vietnamfor the period 2000–2010 and (ii) to understand the land usechange processes in that area and their links with deforestationand socioeconomic development. Based on that, the process ofmarginalization of some farmers – especially from ethnicminorities – the role of the Central Highlands in the broadercontext of Vietnam’s forest transition, and policies aiming atsustainable land uses and deforestation reduction will bediscussed. Remote sensing data were used to map land coverchanges, and combined with secondary statistics and spatialmodelling to analyze drivers of land use changes and socio-economic dynamics.

Two main hypotheses from the literature about deforestation inthe Central Highlands during the years 2000s were tested. First,several studies suggested that the dominant land use changes wereon the one hand the acquisition and conversion of agriculturallands to perennial crops for external markets (coffee, rubber andothers) (called ‘‘industrial crops’’ in Vietnam) by capital-endowedhouseholds, often Kinh – the ethnic majority group in Vietnam –and on the other hand the corresponding displacement of poorhouseholds of ethnic minorities relying on shifting cultivationtowards the forest margins (De Koninck, 2000; Doutriaux et al.,2008; Fortunel, 2008; Hall, 2011). Studies explored these processesusing interviews and socio-economic household surveys, but theiraggregate effects on the landscape have not been quantified andmapped. This first hypothesis can be subdivided in several testablesub-hypotheses: 1.1: expansion of shifting cultivation and annualcrops was the main direct cause of deforestation; 1.2: perennialcrops expanded mainly over current agricultural areas rather thanon forest; 1.3: areas of shifting cultivation were pushed furtherfrom the population and economic centres, and over marginallands; 1.4: there was a causal link between changes in perennialand in shifting cultivation crops. The second hypothesis explainsthat land use zoning regulations, allowing to expand rubber

entification of the Central Highlands provinces. (b) Infrared colour-composites of the

coregions and elevation in the study area.

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–1198 1189

plantations over degraded forest, encouraged or at least sanctioneda sequence of land use where agents – mainly forest enterprises –first logged forestland until it could be considered as degraded, andthen expanded plantations of perennial crops on these lands(Hoang et al., 2010). Testing this second hypothesis requiresshowing the following sub-hypotheses 2.1: forest degradation wasusually followed by clearance, and 2.2: perennial crops expandedmainly over degraded forests, and even more over forests that hadbeen degraded recently.

2. Study area and background

The Central Highlands (Tay Nguyen in Vietnamese) is both anarea of plateaus located westward of the Annamite mountainsrange, and an administrative region corresponding to theprovinces of Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Lam Dong, Dak Lak, and Dak Nong(Fig. 1a). Binh Puoc province is not officially considered as part ofthe Central Highlands, but has many similar biophysical andsocioeconomic characteristics.

The study area covers 747,800 ha in the provinces of Dak Lak,Dak Nong and Lam Dong (Fig. 1a and b). The geomorphology, withbasaltic soils and flat or gently hilly relief, creates favourableconditions for agriculture. The area overlaps several ecoregions(UN-REDD Vietnam, 2011). The northern and centre of the area ispart of the Buon Ma Thuot basaltic plateau ecoregion (also calledDak Lak plateau), with altitude ranging between 350 and 900 mand abundant ferralsols highly suitable soils for agriculture andespecially for coffee (Berding et al., 1999; UN-REDD Vietnam,2011) (Fig. 1c). The dry season lasting from November/Decemberto April constrains coffee cultivation by imposing irrigation toinitiate the growing season earlier (D’haeze et al., 2005). Thenorthwestern part, the peneplains of Che Reo, Phu Bon and Ea Supecoregion (UN-REDD Vietnam, 2011), is the lowest area, with thewarmest and driest conditions of the study area, and altitudesranging between 150 and 400 m. The south-centre of the studyarea is part of the M’Drak mountain range ecoregion, andstructured by the lower watersheds of the Srepok river and itstwo main tributaries, the Krong Ana and Krong No rivers. Flat landsare intersected by hills with steep slopes. The dominant soil typesare less suitable for cultivation, except for patches suitable forpaddy rice cultivation. Altitude ranges between 300 and 800 m,except for some granitic peaks emerging above 1000 m. At asimilar elevation, rainfall and temperatures are slightly higherthan over the Buon Ma Thuot plateau. The southwestern part is theDak Nong-Dak Mil plateau ecoregion, with altitude rangingbetween 400 and 1000 m and topography ranging from gentlyundulating to steeply dissected. The southeastern part is coveredby the Chu Ang Sin granitic mountains ecoregion, with elevationbetween 600 and 1600 m and the highest rainfall of the study area.Natural vegetation over the study area is mainly composed ofevergreen to semi-evergreen broadleaf forest, except in thenorthwestern part where dry and open deciduous dipterocarpforests dominate (Sterling et al., 2006). The capital of Dak Lakprovince, Buon Ma Thuot, occupies the centre of the study area.

This study area was originally settled by several ethnic groupstraditionally practicing shifting cultivation, mainly the Ede, andthe Mnong in the southeastern part (Lak district) (Khong, 2002).Although some settlers came before, colonization by Kinhpopulation started effectively in the late 1970s, when theVietnamese government initiated large-scale resettlement pro-grammes, to colonize and develop New Economic Zones (NEZ)established throughout the northern mountains and CentralHighlands (Dery, 2000; De Koninck, 2000; Doutriaux et al.,2008). Agriculture was collectively organized under cooperatives,whose productivity remained low, threatening the food security ofthe country during the late 1970s and 1980s (Kerkvliet and Porter,

1995). Starting in the 1980s and especially with the initiation of theDoi Moi reforms in 1986, the government progressively liberalizedand de-collectivized agriculture, and allocated rights on long-termuse of agricultural and then forestry lands to households (Kerkvlietand Porter, 1995; Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2008b). With the generalliberalization of the society, unplanned migration towards theCentral Highlands accelerated (Hardy, 2000, 2003; Zhang et al.,2006; Phan and Coxhead, 2010). Migration was driven by and atthe same time fuelled the rapid agricultural development of theCentral Highlands, especially through coffee production. Almostinsignificant in 1975, coffee cultivation boomed in Vietnam overthe late 1980s and 1990s thanks to economic liberalization andprivatization of agricultural production means, and rises in worldcoffee prices reinforced by the 1994 frost in Brazil (Ha and Shively,2008; Doutriaux et al., 2008). Vietnam thereby became the world’ssecond largest exporter of coffee. Yet, despite coffee boom andgeneral economic growth in the area, poverty remained severeamong the ethnic minority populations in the Central Highlands,compared to Kinh migrants (Baulch et al., 2010). Price collapsesbetween 1999 and 2001 then created a coffee bust, impoverishingmany farmers which had contracted debt to invest in irrigation andinputs needed for coffee cultivation (Ha and Shively, 2008). Morerecently, rubber started to expand rapidly throughout mainlandSoutheast Asia, including in the Central Highlands of Vietnam(Ziegler et al., 2009b; Li and Fox, 2012). Facing the rapiddeforestation of the country in the 1980s, the governmentpromulgated the Law on Forest Protection and Development in1991, which defines forestry land as land covered by forest orplanned for forestry uses, and subdivides it in three categoriesaccording to the planned use: special-use forest (forests of highbiological or cultural value), protection forests (for protection ofwater and soil resources), and production forests intended forexploitation of timber and non-timber forest products, and wheresome agriculture is allowed in certain conditions (Clement andAmezaga, 2009). In the study area, the main special-use forests arethe Nam Nung, Nam Ka and Ho Lak forests (Fig. 1c). Two nationalparks are also located inside or close to the study area: Yok Donpark covered by dry deciduous forests and Chu Yang Sin park in theSouthern Annamite mountains. Some questions arising from thisshort socio-economic outline will be discussed in this paper: whydo ethnic minorities remain impoverished and marginalizeddespite economic development of the area, and what effects doesthis have on land use and forests?, do the coffee and rubber boomshave similar effects on the landscape?, and how effective are policymeasures to control deforestation?

3. Data and methods

3.1. Remote sensing processing

The time series of remote sensing data consists of Landsat TMimages – path/row 124/51 and 124/52 – of 2000–2001 (February-March) and 2004–2005 (December–January) and ASTER images of2010 (March), which were mosaicked, coregistred and georefer-enced. 71 ground control points, collected by fieldwork in April2010, were used in combination with topographic maps, GoogleEarth images, and expert knowledge to train supervised classifica-tions of land cover by maximum likelihood. Classifications wereinitially realized with many detailed classes, which weresubsequently aggregated into a few broad classes: (i) evergreenforest (including bamboos, mixed forests and different broadleafforest qualities), (ii) open deciduous dry forest, (iii) shrubland(including fallows and degraded open forest), (iv) bare andresidential land, (v) annual crops, including shifting cultivationcrops like rice, maize and cassava – despite being actually aperennial crop – as well as some irrigated rice, and (vi) agricultural

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–11981190

farm with perennial crops (mainly coffee but also pepper, cashewand rubber). Change detections were realized by combining a post-classification comparison reclassified into the main trajectories ofland use/cover changes, with an image differencing of theNormalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with thresholdsat �1 standard deviation (SD) around the mean (Coppin et al., 2004).The trajectories of change considered were: (i) deforestation forannual crops, (ii) deforestation for perennial crops, (iii) forestdegradation (i.e. change from evergreen forest to shrubs or opendeciduous forest, (iv) reforestation (i.e. change from any other class toa forest class), (v) agricultural change to perennial crops (i.e. fromannual crops, residential or bare land), (vi) conversion of shrubs/opendeciduous forest to annual crops, (vii) conversion of shrubs/opendeciduous forest to perennial industrial crops. Because of theirinsufficient separability, shrubland and open deciduous forests weremerged for the analyses of land cover trajectories. By using NDVIdifferencing, the land cover trajectories maps were thus constructedto be conservative – i.e. not falsely detect pixels as change due toclassification errors. Majority filters were used to remove noise andspeckle. 350 points for the land cover maps and 210 points for the2005–2010 land cover trajectories map, selected by structuredrandom sampling, were used for validation, using aerial photographs,Google Earth images and colour composites of the satellite images asreferences. Because of the available data, reliable validation of the2000–2005 land cover trajectories map was not possible.

3.2. Trajectories and spatial patterns of perennial and annual crops

expansion

Sub-hypothesis 1.2 suggests that perennial crops expandedmainly over existing agricultural areas rather than on forest.Because perennial crops like coffee or rubber may take severalyears before growing enough to be spectrally separable fromannual crops, a time lag was necessary to reliably identify thesources of land used for perennial crops expansion over the 2005–2010 period. The trajectories over 2005–2010 were thus comparedto the land cover of the pixel in 2000. To verify the sub-hypothesis1.3 proposing that shifting cultivation areas were pushed furtherfrom population and economic centres and over marginal lands,several indicators were computed for the plots newly put undercultivation of annual crops, for 2000–2005 and 2005–2010:average distance to human infrastructures (settlements, townsand roads), average slope, and percentage of land on marginal soils.The spatial pattern of newly opened plots was supposed to be morerepresentative of shifting cultivation dynamics than the spatialpattern of active areas in a given year, because the latter mergeshifting cultivation with permanent cropping – mainly irrigatedrice. Finally, the causal link between changes in perennial and inannual crops was explored by comparing the area of annual cropslost because of perennial crops expansion with the area of annualcrops expanding into forest, for the period 2005–2010.

3.3. Spatial determinants of deforestation and crops expansion 2005–

2010

Logistic regression models were used to analyze proximatecauses and spatial determinants for each of the five main land use/cover changes for the period 2005–2010, namely (i) deforestation,(ii) forest degradation, (iii) clearance of shrubs/open forests, (iv)expansion of annual crops, (v) expansion of perennial crops. Foreach model, stratified random sampling was used to select 1000points which experienced the corresponding change, and 1000points which could potentially have experienced that change buthave not, with a minimum distance of 150 m – determined usingvariograms – to minimize spatial autocorrelation (Muller et al.,2009). Due to this constraint, the actual number of sample points in

each model was lower than 2000. The predictors were: (i)biophysical variables, i.e. mean annual temperature, elevation(a.o. as a proxy for annual temperature gradient), slope, aspect(calculated from the ASTER GDEM v.2 by METI and NASA,Tachikawa et al., 2011), ecoregion (UN-REDD Vietnam, 2011),presence of ferralsols (from the provincial soil maps), (ii) variablesrelated to accessibility for human activities, i.e. distance tosettlements (digitized from the topographic maps), to roads, andto the main towns (Buon Ma Thuot, and Da Lat and Bao Loc in LamDong province) (all in meters), (iii) policy variables, i.e. zoning ofthe land as forest or not, and zoning of the land as protection orspecial-use forest or not, (iv) socio-economic indicators atcommune level for 2010, i.e. rural population density (in peopleper hectare) and yields of the main crops – i.e. coffee, rice andmaize. Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) indices above 5 were used toremove variables presenting collinearity. X and Y coordinates (inUTM projection) were initially added to control for remainingspatial autocorrelation (Muller et al., 2009), but Y coordinates wereremoved because of collinearity.

3.4. Regional perspective

To assess the dynamics in the study area in the light of thebroader context of the Central Highlands and national dynamics inVietnam, statistics on land use, forest cover and ethnic groupcomposition for selected districts and provinces were compiledfrom official sources (General Statistical Office, Ministry ofAgriculture and Rural Development, Forestry Protection Depart-ment, and provincial administrations). Following the flow of theargument, these tables will be presented in the discussion.

4. Results

4.1. Land use/cover and land use/cover changes

The overall accuracy of the land cover maps remained relativelylow (respectively 69%, 68% and 64% in 2000, 2005 and 2010), butthe main confusions occurred (i) with perennial crops beinguncorrectly classified as bare, shrub or annual cropland because oftheir young age, and (ii) between shrubland and open deciduousforests. Misclassifications of young perennial crops plantationswere addressed in the analysis of cropland sources by observingthe land cover in 2000 for pixels converted to perennial plantationsin the period 2005–2010. Validation of the 2005–2010 trajectoriesmap showed that (i) omission errors were indeed larger thancommission errors, (ii) no other particular bias in the detection ofchanges existed, and (iii) the accuracy reached 86%, thanks to theNDVI image differencing and the merging of shrublands and opendeciduous forests. The results and discussion are thus basedprimarily on the land cover trajectories map, which wasconsidered reliable. In 2010, the north and centre of the studyarea were largely covered by coffee, with few forests (Fig. 2,Table 1). Forested areas remained mainly in the northwest – opendry deciduous forests – and in the southern and eastern plateausand mountains (Figs. 1b and 2a). Forest cover (excluding opendeciduous forests) declined from 26.6% in 2000 to 22% in 2010.Because of the low separability between shrubs/fallows and dryforests, decline in dry forests was more difficult to observe.Deforestation rates were high, with gross deforestation of�2848 ha per year between 2000 and 2010, thus annual grossand net deforestation rates of respectively �0.38% and �0.31% y�1,both calculated over the total study area (Table 2). Deforestationaccelerated over 2005–2010 compared to 2000–2005, and wasconcentrated in the south (Fig. 2b). The main land use afterdeforestation was annual crops (mainly rice and maize) (Table 2).Forest degradation rates were lower than for deforestation.

Fig. 2. Land cover and land cover changes maps. (a) Land cover map in 2010. (b) Land cover changes 2005–2010, reclassified in the main trajectories.

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–1198 1191

4.2. Trajectories and spatial patterns of perennial and annual crops

expansion

The most widespread successive trajectories of change over the2000–2005–2010 periods were (i) no change followed by clearanceof natural vegetation for annual crops (31.9% of the changes), (ii)early or late conversion of agricultural lands to perennial crops(24.6% of the changes), and (iii) clearance of natural vegetation forannual crops followed by no change (15.5% of the changes)(Table 3). Most of the 11,142 ha of perennial crops expansion over2005–2010 occurred over areas which were already agriculturallands in 2000 (Table 4). Only 13.2% was realized over areas coveredby natural vegetation in 2000. 53% of the perennials expansionover shrubs was preceded by forest degradation over the period2000–2005, but this represents only 13.7% of the forest degrada-tion which occurred between 2000 and 2005. The sequence (1)deforestation or clearance of shrubs/dry forest for annual crops in

Table 1Land cover proportions (%) in 2010.

Land cover proportions (%)

Forest (broadleaf, bamboo, coniferous, mixed,

excluding open dry forest)

22.0

Open dry deciduous forest 2.0

Shrubland 2.6

Bareland (incl. residential) 23.5

Annual crops (including paddylands) 27.8

Perennial/industrial crops 20.6

Water 1.5

Total area (ha) 747,807

2000–2005 followed by (2) conversion to perennial crops in 2005–2010, as proposed by hypothesis 2, was infrequent and representeda very small share of both the deforestation over 2000–2005 (2.1%)and the perennial crops expansion over 2005–2010 (3.9%).Perennial crops thus expanded mainly on previously existingagricultural areas rather than on recently cleared ones, in line withsub-hypothesis 1.2. Furthermore, the distance from newly openedplots of shifting cultivation to settlements, large towns (primarilyBuon Ma Thuot) and roads increased markedly (Table 5):compared to the period 2000–2005, the plots opened during theperiod 2005–2010 were respectively 25%, 5% and 16% further fromsettlements, towns and roads. Newly opened plots were alsolocated on steeper slopes and poorer soils (Table 5).

Between 2005 and 2010, perennial crops expanded over9554 ha of agricultural lands, or 10,466 ha if shrubs – that canrepresent fallows – are also taken into account (Table 2). This areahas thus been removed from the production pool for annual crops.Over the same period, annual crops expanded over forests by17,799 ha, and over shrubs or dry forest by 11,491 ha – some of thisbeing part of the usual cycle of shifting cultivation. Active annualcroplands (thus excluding shrubs and fallowing) lost to perennialcrops represented 54% of the expansion of annual crops overforests. Yet this might underestimate the effect of perennial cropsexpansion, given that, as shifting cultivation is pushed towardsmarginal lands, each hectare lost requires more than oneadditional hectare to produce the same amount. Expansion ofannual crops over forests thus did more than compensate the areaslost to perennial crops, but nevertheless a significant share of thedeforestation caused by shifting cultivation could be considered asdriven by the need to replace areas lost to perennial crops and thusbeing indirectly driven by the expansion of these perennial crops.

Table 2Trajectories and rates of land use/land cover changes 2000–2005–2010.

ha Gross annual change (ha/y) Gross annual rate (%/y, over

the total area)

Trajectory 2000–2005 2005–2010 2000–2010 2000–2005 2005–2010 2000–2010 2000–2005 2005–2010 2000–2010

Unknown 14,822 17,059 16,083 2964 3412 1608 0.40 0.46 0.22

No change 691,168 681,479 656,646 138,234 136,296 65,665 17.82 16.73 8.03

Deforestation for perennial crops 180 676 804 36 135 80 0.00 0.02 0.01

Deforestation for annual crops 8338 17,799 27,682 1668 3560 2768 0.22 0.48 0.37

Forest degradation 4482 1511 1609 896 302 161 0.12 0.04 0.02

Reforestation 2047 6038 5476 409 1208 548 0.05 0.16 0.07

Agricultural changes, to perennial crops 16,882 9554 22,126 3376 1911 2213 0.45 0.26 0.30

Shrubs/dry forest to annual crops 8824 11,491 15,425 1765 2298 1543 0.24 0.31 0.21

Shrubs/dry forest to perennial crops 73 912 703 15 182 70 0.00 0.02 0.01

Net forest changes (excl. dry forests) �6471 �12,437 �23,010 �1294 �2487 �2301 �0.17 �0.33 �0.31

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–11981192

4.3. Spatial determinants of deforestation and crops expansion

2005–2010

As logistic models constitute but one aspect of this study, wefocus only on results useful for our analysis. Elevation andtemperature had a negative influence on deforestation (Table 6).Presence of ferralsols and higher mean temperature werepositively linked with deforestation. Increasing distance tosettlements exerted a negative influence on deforestationlikelihood, but forest patches in the surroundings of townswere less likely to be cleared than plots further away. Beingclassified as forestry land did not decrease the likelihood ofdeforestation, but the strictest levels of forest protection (i.e.protection and special-use forest) effectively hindered defores-tation. For forest degradation, elevation and zoning of the land asprotection or special-use forest also had negative influences, anddistance to towns a positive influence. Forest degradation wasalso more likely in the northwestern peneplains. Clearance ofshrubs and dry forests was negatively influenced by temperatureand distance to settlements, and less likely in the northwesternpeneplains and in protection/special-use forests. Higher popu-lation density increased the likelihood of shrubs and dry forestclearance. Expansion of annual crops was negatively influencedby elevation, presence of ferralsols, and also less likely in theBuon Ma Thuot plateau and northwestern peneplains ecoregions– thus more likely in the southern and eastern plateaus andmountains ecoregions. Expansion of annual crops was less likelywhen going further from settlements and in protection/special-use forests, but more likely when going further from roads andtowns. Expansion of perennial crops was positively influenced byelevation and presence of ferralsols, but negatively influenced bytemperature and distances to towns. Perennial crops expansionwas more likely in the northwestern peneplains and Buon MaThuot plateau, and in densely populated areas. Finally, zoning ofland as protection/special-use forest had a negative influence on

Table 3Eight most frequent successive trajectories for the period 2000–2005–2010, by

decreasing order of extent.

Trajectories 2000–2005 and 2005–2010 % (of the changed

pixels)

No change – deforestation for annual crops 20.4

Agricultural change, to perennial crops – no change 16.2

No change – shrubs/dry forest to annual crops 11.5

No change – agricultural change, to perennial crops 8.4

Shrubs/dry forest to annual crops – no change 7.9

Deforestation for annual crops – no change 7.6

No change – reforestation 5.0

Forest degradation – no change 4.4

Total 81.4

expansion of perennial crops. Overall, forestry land classified asprotection and special-use forest was thus indeed relativelyprotected, controlling for accessibility and biophysical factors.Annual crops expanded more on lands relatively close tosettlements, thus to labour force, but not on lands close toroads and on ferralsols. This suggests that a more competitiveland use expanded over these most suitable lands. Perennialcrops – i.e. coffee here – indeed expanded more on lands withsuitable soils and climate, and markets accessibility, in place ofannual crops.

5. Discussion

5.1. Displacement and marginalization of shifting cultivation farmers

The results support the sub-hypotheses 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3. Annualcrops were the main direct cause of deforestation (Table 2),perennial crops expanded mainly over existing agricultural areasrather than on forest (Tables 2 and 4), and areas of annual cropswere pushed further from the population and economic centres,and over marginal lands (Tables 3 and 5). The sub-hypothesis 1.4,positing a causal link between changes in perennial and in annualcrops could be partly supported by analyses of spatial pattern ofannual croplands – about at least 35% of the annual croplandsexpansion could be attributed to the displacement caused byperennial crops expanding over annual croplands – and of spatialdeterminants of agricultural expansion, but not directly proved.Thus, overall, the main hypothesis – i.e. that deforestation wasmainly caused by the acquisition and conversion of agriculturallands to perennial crops by capital-endowed households, oftenfrom the Kinh ethnic majority, and corresponding displacement ofpoor households of ethnic minorities relying on shifting cultivationtowards the forest margins – was largely supported by the data. Bycontrast, hypothesis 2 and its sub-hypotheses were not verified inthis study area (but see Section 5.2.1).

Understanding the social dynamics leading to this displace-ment and marginalization of local ethnic minorities – mainly Ede

Table 4Sources of land for perennial crops expansion (land cover in 2000 of the land

converted to perennial crops between 2005 and 2010).

Land cover in 2000 ha %

All 11,142 100.00

Natural vegetation 1471 13.2

Of which shrubs/open dry deciduous forest 513 4.6

Of which other forest (evergreen, bamboos) 959 8.6

Annual crops 6249 56.1

Other agricultural areas (bare lands) 3246 29.1

Other land (including water) 176 1.6

Table 5Indicators of marginality of the new areas of annual crops.

Indicator 2000–2005 2005–2010

Average distance to settlements (m) 2472 3095

Average distance to towns

(mainly Buon Ma Thuot) (m)

34,014 35,569

Average distance to roads (m) 2937 3417

Average slope (degrees) 9.6 11.8

% of area on marginal soils 44.5 55.4

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–1198 1193

and Mnong in the study area – requires a historical perspective(De Koninck, 2000; Dery, 2000; Fortunel, 2008; Hall, 2011).Migration and infrastructures development were undertaken withlimited results under the French colonial rule. Throughout theIndochina Wars, the Central Highlands were increasingly recog-nized as a strategic area. Ethnic minorities had started to organizeunder the FULRO (United Front for the Liberation of OppressedRaces), a nationalist movement and insurgent group, initiallyagainst the French, then against the South Vietnam government.Although Americans partly succeeded in using the FULRO againstNorth Vietnam, the communists gained many supporters amongethnic minorities through intensive presence on the field (Guerinet al., 2003). This strong position in the highlands proved crucial forconquering the plains of South Vietnam.

After the reunification, with continuing instability related toethnic minorities and fear from external threats, the Vietnamese

Table 6Spatial determinants of land cover/land use changes 2005–2010.

Deforestation Forest

degradation

Shru

fores

N 1596 901 1759

Coefficients VIF Estimate Signif. VIF Estimate Signif. VIF

(Intercept) – �25.11 *** – �12.20 –

Elevation (m) 3.1 �0.006341 *** 4.1 �0.007154 *** 4.0

Slope (8) 1.2 �0.004668 � 1.3 0.01541 � 1.3

Aspect (8) 1.0 �0.0003867 � 1.1 0.0001899 � 1.0

Temperature (8C) 2.3 0.1019 * 3.4 �0.03783 � 1.7

Ecoregion 1 1.8 �0.05347 . 2.9 0.9286 . 3.2

Ecoregion 2 1.7 0.5199 3.4 1.715 ** 3.7

Ferralsols 2.4 0.9640 *** 2.1 0.4406 � 1.2

Dist. to

settlements (m)

2.0 �0.0002696 *** 2.2 �0.00002092 � 2.5

Dist. to roads (m) 2.1 �0.00004494 . 2.0 �0.00009779 . 2.2

Dist. to towns (m) 3.8 0.00005398 *** 3.9 0.00006008 ** 3.5

Zoning as forestry

land

1.1 �0.2007 � 1.1 0.1633 � 1.7

Zoning as

protection/special-

use forest

1.4 �0.9586 *** 1.4 �0.6634 * 1.3

Rural population

density in 2010

(people/km2)

2.4 �0.4450 . 2.5 �0.3757 � 2.1

Coffee yields in

2010 (t/ha)

3.0 �0.051837 � 3.6 0.1310 � 2.1

Rice yields in

2010 (t/ha)

– – – – – – –

Maize yields in

2010 (t/ha)

– – – – – – –

X coordinate

(UTM, m)

2.5 0.00003172 *** 2.0 0.00001528 � 1.6

Notes: N: number of observations. Ecoregion 1: Buon Ma Thuot basalt plateau. Ecoregion

Mountain Range, Dak Nong and Dak Mil plateau, and Chu Ang Sin Mountain and Da L

Signif. Codes:*** 0.001;** 0.01;* 0.05;

� 0.1;

1.

– Variable not included because of Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) too high.

All models were significant on likelihood ratio test at p < 0.0001 level compared to the

government regarded the Central Highlands as critical for nationalsecurity. Colonization programmes aimed at fulfilling multipleobjectives: solving overpopulation and poverty issues in lowlands,and addressing the difficulties to integrate and assert control overremote highlands and minority ethnic groups (Dery, 2000; DeKoninck, 2000; Guerin et al., 2003; Hardy, 2003; Doutriaux et al.,2008). The socialist ideology promoted a productivist and rationalistview in which highlands were underused by backwards populationswith inefficient agricultural techniques (Sowerwine, 2004). Throughcontacts with Kinh people, ethnic minorities were expected tobecome civilized, adopt modern practices and lifestyles, and takepart to a unified nation. Although official policy promoted themultiethnic character of the country, in practice, Kinh customs wereusually considered as the most advanced, to which other peopleshould assimilate (McElwee, 2008). Over the 1970s and early 1980s,most migrations were planned, i.e. they occurred in areasdetermined by the government and with support from the state.Through ideological mobilization campaigns, migrants were moti-vated to improve their own economic situation while simulta-neously participating to a patriotic effort to build the Vietnamesesocialist nation (Hardy, 2003). Initially, Kinh migrants were notalways conflicting with local populations. In many cases, local ethnicpopulation welcomed migrants, helping them to settle (Hardy,2003). Although local populations often had to abandon their land tomigrants, extension support from state enterprises for developingirrigated rice and perennial crops, and collaboration in cooperatives

bs and dry

t clearance

Expansion of

annual crops

Expansion of

industrial crops

1815 1791

Estimate Signif. VIF Estimate Signif. VIF Estimate Signif.

1.375 – �8.367 ** – �4.219

�0.00006909 . 2.7 �0.005106 *** 3.0 0.001796 ***

0.004438 � 1.4 0.01282 . 1.3 �0.008718 ��0.0001892 � 1.0 0.0007041 � 1.0 �0.0003625 ��0.08319 ** 1.5 �0.01886 1.4 �0.1145 ***

�0.2289 � 3.7 �0.4921 * 3.2 1.042 ***

�1.736 *** 2.0 �1.228 *** 1.9 0.9262 **

0.07145 � 2.2 �0.6185 *** 1.4 1.271 ***

�0.0001015 ** 2.3 �0.0001552 *** 2.2 �0.00008209 .

0.00001050 � 1.8 0.00008388 *** 1.7 �0.00005088 .

�0.0000004211 � 2.7 0.00001679 ** 3.0 �0.00001555 *

0.07658 � 2.7 �0.07365 � 1.7 �0.2445 �

�0.5456 *** 1.5 �0.3376 * 1.3 �1.033 ***

0.07720 * 2.0 0.06655 � 1.7 0.2722 ***

�0.1408 . – – – 2.0 �0.06503 �

– – 2.9 �0.02742 – – –

– – 4.6 �0.01813 – – –

0.000001956 � 1.8 0.00001399 *** 1.6 �0.000006677 .

2: peneplains of Cheo Reo, Phu Bon, Ea Sup. Control ecoregions (aggregated): M’Drak

at mountainous plateau.

null model.

Table 7Areas and annual changes in areas of forest and the main perennial crops (coffee, rubber, cashew) in several years in selected provinces of the Central Highlands of Vietnam.

Units: ‘000 ha 1985 1993 1999 2005 2009 Annual change

1985–1993

(’000 ha/y)

Annual change

1993–1999

(’000 ha/y)

Annual change

1999–2005

(’000 ha/y)

Annual change

2005–2009

(’000 ha/y)

Forest

Dak Lak + Dak Nong 1294.0 1153.6 1018.0 974.7 957.2 �17.6 �22.6 �7.2 �4.4

Dak Lak – 672.5 598.6 604.3 633.2 – �12.3 1.0 7.2

Dak Nong – 481.1 419.4 370.4 324.0 – �10.3 �8.2 �11.6

Lam Dong 630.0 599.6 618.5 607.3 602.0 �3.8 3.2 �1.9 �1.3

Binh Phuoc 248.9 235.9 165.0 172.4 113.9 �1.6 �11.8 1.2 �14.6

Natural forest

Dak Lak + Dak Nong 1284.0 1150.5 1008.3 946.1 881.4 �16.7 �23.7 �10.4 �16.2

Dak Lak – 669.5 595.9 585.9 571.9 – �12.3 �1.7 �3.5

Dak Nong – 481.0 412.4 360.2 309.4 – �11.4 �8.7 �12.7

Lam Dong 621.0 593.0 591.2 557.9 543.3 �3.5 �0.3 �5.6 �3.6

Binh Phuoc 248.9 235.9 154.0 117.9 95.2 �1.6 �13.7 �6.0 �5.7

Coffee

Dak Lak + Dak Nong 25.0 100.0 182.3 241.8 256.8 9.4 13.7 9.9 3.8

Dak Lak – – – 170.4 182.0 – – – 2.9

Dak Nong – – – 71.4 74.8 – – – 0.8

Lam Dong – – 87.6 117.5 141.1 – – 5.0 5.9

Binh Phuoc – – 17.8 10.4 11.5 – – �1.2 0.3

Rubber

Dak Lak + Dak Nong – – 26.7 31.3 44.6 – – 0.8 3.3

Dak Lak – – – 22.8 25.1 – – – 0.6

Dak Nong – – – 8.5 19.5 – – – 2.8

Lam Dong – – 0.0 0.0 1.6 – – 0.0 0.4

Binh Phuoc – – 84.3 99.2 144.0 – – 2.5 11.2

Cashew

Dak Lak + Dak Nong – – 5.6 42.1 58.7 – – 6.1 4.2

Dak Lak – – – 29.5 36.4 – – – 1.7

Dak Nong – – – 12.6 22.3 – – – 2.4

Lam Dong – – 8.6 10.8 15.6 – – 0.4 1.2

Binh Phuoc – – 64.8 116.0 156.1 – – 8.5 10.0

Natural forest (% of total land)

Dak Lak + Dak Nong 65.4 58.6 51.3 48.2 44.9 �0.8 �1.2 �0.5 �0.8

Dak Lak – 51.0 45.4 44.6 43.6 – �0.9 �0.1 �0.3

Dak Nong – 73.8 63.3 55.3 47.5 – �1.8 �1.3 �1.9

Lam Dong 63.6 60.7 60.6 57.1 55.7 �0.4 0.0 �0.6 �0.4

Binh Phuoc 36.2 34.3 22.4 17.2 13.9 �0.2 �2.0 �0.9 �0.8

Sources: data on coffee, rubber and cashew: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD); forest cover data – Forest Inventory and Planning Institute (FIPI), and

own calculations based on FIPI maps.

Notes: Until 2004, Dak Nong was part of Dak Lak province. Until 1997, Binh Phuoc was merged with Binh Duong province into Song Be province. Statistics of agricultural lands

for the earlier dates are thus unavailable for these provinces. (–) not available.

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–11981194

also provided opportunities for ethnic minorities. In the early 1990sthe coffee boom fuelled a rapid agricultural development providingbenefits to many farmers, both Ede and Kinh (Fortunel, 2008; Phan,2009).

But in the 1980s, with economic liberalization, abandonment ofcontrolled household registration limiting movements – the ‘‘hokhau’’ – development of private transport systems and decline ofcolonization programmes, unplanned migration became domi-nant, by Kinh from the Red River delta and the central coast butalso by other ethnic groups from the northern mountains,including Nung, Tay, Thai, Dao, Hmong and Muong (Hardy,2000, 2003; Zhang et al., 2006; Phan and Coxhead, 2010). Withdecreasing state’s material and ideological supports to resettle-ment, the typical profile of migrants in the 1990s and 2000schanged, towards people with more resource and capital thanbefore, and motivated by economic opportunities and perspectivesof becoming rich more than the building of national economy(Hardy, 2003). Absent state programmes, many migrant relied onrelatives already living in the Central Highlands to find land tosettle. Some people started to make their living by providing suchland through various ways, including clearing and claiming forestfallows or acquiring land from ethnic minorities at cheap price,relying on their lack of knowledge of language, administrativeprocedures and official land tenure systems.

In the initial migration waves, small groups of Kinh arriving inan unknown and hostile environment often had to adapt, partly byintegrating with local ethnic population and adopting some of their

practices (Hardy, 2003). But after the 1990s, with progressivedevelopment of infrastructures and relations with externalmarkets, as well as balance of population more strongly shiftingtowards Kinh, local ethnic population became increasinglymarginalized (Guerin et al., 2003; Hardy, 2003). Although freemigrants were often held responsible for social and environmentalproblems in the highlands, government’s attitude towards themremained ambiguous as they actually contribute to state’sobjectives of national consolidation (Hardy, 2003). With changesand fuzziness in policies since the 1980s, public organizations,including state farms and others, sometimes expropriated ethniccommunities from their land to sell it to migrants (Guerin et al.,2003). Ethnic population dispossessed of their land had fewoptions other than moving further into the forest, except possiblymoving to town in hope for jobs. As long as the coffee boom wasproviding at least some benefits to many people, this marginaliza-tion remained hidden, but the coffee crisis acted as a trigger toreveal the tensions between local ethnic groups, Kinh and othermigrants (Fortunel, 2008; Phan, 2009). Actually, unequal powersbetween Kinh and minorities, prejudices, and inappropriatepolicies have contributed to maintain ethnic minorities of theCentral Highlands among the most isolated, poor and less formallyeducated populations of the country (Baulch et al., 2010). Forexample, although production of cereals per capita was multipliedby 350% in Dak Lak between 1995 and 2010 (GSO, 2012),nutritional status of ethnic minority children in the CentralHighlands worsened between 1998 and 2006 (Baulch et al., 2010).

Table 8Percentages of the main ethnic groups in the rural population in Dak Lak in 2009, by

districts.

districts Ede Kinh Mnong Other

Buon Ma Thuo˙t 23.0 70.0 0.1 6.8

Krong Buk 31.3 67.0 0.0 1.2

Cu’ M Gar 39.0 48.8 0.0 10.5

Krong Pac 19.5 64.4 0.0 9.8

Krong Ana 22.9 72.7 1.8 2.2

Lak 6.6 32.6 53.3 7.4

Source: Dak Lak Statistical Yearbooks.

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–1198 1195

Besides spatial aspects explored in our study, other studiesdescribed in more details the social aspects of displacement(Doutriaux et al., 2008). Along with dispossessed Ede and Mnong,other groups including poor newcomers – especially from otherethnic minorities from the North – and some settlers from earlierwaves – in particular farmers indebted after the coffee crisis – arealso being marginalized, but local ethnic minorities represent by farthe largest share of the marginalized farmers encroaching forestswith shifting cultivation. This marginalization, coupled witheconomic opportunities in agriculture in the region, creates adualization between capital-endowed farmers and traders involvedin commodity crops markets and subsistence smallholders forced torely on increasingly marginal land (Phan, 2009). Such dualization is atypical process of contemporary frontiers (Barbier, 2012).

5.2. Spatial heterogeneity inside and across regions, and extra-local

displacement

5.2.1. Intra-regional differences in deforestation patterns within the

Central Highlands

This section expands the focus beyond the study area, to contrastthe dynamics there with dynamics in neighbouring areas of theCentral Highlands, and highlight the context-specificity and spatialheterogeneity of land use and deforestation dynamics. The studyarea covers the largest part of the coffee basin in Dak Lak, andextends further south in Dak Nong (Fig. 1a). With the coffee boom,Dak Lak was a deforestation hotspot during the 1990s (D’haeze et al.,2005, Table 7). Deforestation then decreased strongly during thecoffee bust period of 2000–2005. Coffee area slightly contracted overthe early 2000s (Ha and Shively, 2008; Agergaard et al., 2009), butstarted to recover since 2004. Cashew served as a refuge crop in DakLak during the coffee bust, then declined after 2007 (Ha and Shively,2008). Over 2005–2010, perennial crops – still mostly coffee –expanded mainly over already existing agricultural areas (Section4.2), and deforestation rebounded but remained below the 1990sfigures (Table 7). The main hotspot of deforestation in the CentralHighlands moved southwards, to Dak Nong and Binh Phuocprovinces (Table 7, Fig. 1a). There, by contrast, perennial cropsplantations, mainly rubber, expanded mostly over forest, constitut-ing the main direct cause of deforestation (Hoang et al., 2010).

Deforestation was thus driven mainly by an indirect pressurefrom coffee in Dak Lak and by a stronger and direct pressure fromrubber in Dak Nong/Binh Phuoc. The causes of these differences inland use and deforestation trajectories can be traced to severalfactors. First, the spatial distribution of crops – coffee in Dak Lak andnorthern Dak Nong, versus rubber in Binh Phuoc and southern DakNong – corresponds to their respective requirements. Coffeerequires higher elevation and cooler temperatures, and is lesssuited in the lower elevations of Binh Phuoc compared to Dak Lak. Infact, with plateaus under 1000 m high, even Dak Lak is only suited forthe low-value Robusta and not for the higher-value Arabica (JurgenPohlan and Janssens, 2010). On the contrary, rubber is typically anequatorial crop grown under 400 m of elevation, and temperaturesbelow 18 8C reduce yield (Verheye, 2010). The conditions in BinhPhuoc and southern Dak Nong are thus more favourable for rubbercompared to Dak Lak, despite the successful trials and developmentsof hybrids in China allowing for expansion of rubber plantations innon-traditional growing areas (Li and Fox, 2012). Second, rapidlyincreasing global demand for rubber, including from China,contributed to an ongoing rubber boom in mainland SoutheastAsia (Ziegler et al., 2009b; Li and Fox, 2012). Third, large forestedareas remained in Dak Lak even in the 2000s, while forests werealmost exhausted in Binh Phuoc (Table 7). The contrast betweendecreasing deforestation rates in Dak Lak and deforestation hotspotin Binh Phuoc and Dak Nong could thus not be attributed to a scarcityof forests to cut in Dak Lak. Furthermore, policies and governmental

support regarding rubber and coffee differ. Rubber is part of thenational strategy and is allowed to expand over ‘‘poor’’ forests(Hoang et al., 2010), to benefit from the booming global demand.With an already very high coffee production in Vietnam, the collapseof the coffee prices in the early 2000s caused severe economicdifficulties for households engaged in mono-cropping (Ha andShively, 2008; Agergaard et al., 2009), and in turn political unrests(Fortunel, 2008). Market situation did not favour further expansionof coffee, government incentives were scaled down and policiesprohibited expansion of coffee over forests. The difference in landuse trajectories across the Central Highlands, with the southernmargins (Binh Phuoc/southern Dak Nong) constituting the recentdeforestation hotspot compared to the core of the Central Highlands(Dak Lak/northern Dak Nong), might therefore be primarily due todifferences in suitability of land, global markets and nationalstrategy towards coffee and rubber. Policies played an importantrole in displacing these deforestation fronts and modifying the landuse trajectories, but in turn these policies were strategically tailoredto respond to global demand for commodities.

5.2.2. Migration and the role of the Central Highlands in the forest

transition of Vietnam

Expanding the focus even more broadly, we discuss here whetheragricultural expansion and migration in the Central Highlandscaused or facilitated the reforestation elsewhere in the country –mostly in the northern and central mountains, as suggested by someauthors (Leblond, 2011). Since the 1980s, land scarcity anddegradation in the North caused both outmigration – to the CentralHighlands and elsewhere – and decline in shifting cultivation.Migrants from upland ethnic groups, being traditionally farmers andhighly valuing that activity, were likely to look for places where theycould continue agriculture (Pham, 2009). In northern mountainsvillages well-connected to main roads and for households havingboth enough money to migrate and not enough land to expandcultivation, migration to the Central Highlands was indeed amongthe diversification strategies pursued (Alther et al., 2002). Villagesestablished entirely by migrants from northern uplands ethnicgroups have been described (e.g. Lindskog et al., 2005), as well asKinh having moved initially from the plains to the northernmountains, then to the Central Highlands (Hardy, 2003). But onaggregate, despite uncertainties in official statistics (Pham, 2009),most migrants to the Central Highlands were Kinh, comingoverwhelmingly from the plains and deltas of the Red River andMekong (Winkels, 2008; Hardy, 2000, 2003). Immigrants fromnorthern and central uplands ethnic groups – e.g. Thai, Tay, Hmong,Muong and others – constitute only up to 10% of the population ofthe Central Highlands (Hardy, 2000; Doutriaux et al., 2008; Table 8).In a countrywide statistical analysis, district-level changesin population density did not contribute to the reforestationbetween 1993 and 2002, and the net population change in thenorthern mountains and midlands was still positive (Meyfroidt andLambin, 2008b). Thus, although locally, for farmers with sufficientresources, migration and agricultural colonization in the CentralHighlands likely contributed to reforestation and mitigation of land

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–11981196

degradation in some places, massive outmigration of populationfrom the northern and central uplands was not the primary driver ofreforestation in these regions, contrasting with other cases of foresttransitions (Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2011).

5.2.3. Recent trends and balance of between forest cover changes

among regions of Vietnam

Agricultural development in the Central Highlands contributedto exports and economic growth in Vietnam, thus supporting therestructuring of the economy and government investments whichconstituted the socioeconomic context of the forest transition(Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2008b, 2009; Lambin and Meyfroidt,2010). But deforestation in the Central Highlands reduced the netcountrywide effects of the forest transition. Most primary forestsremnants are in the Central Highlands and ongoing deforestationhas important impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage(Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2008b). Over the last decade, netreforestation rates at the country level declined (Table 9). Withcoffee recovery and rubber boom, rates of clearance of naturalforests in the Central Highlands increased during the period 2005–2009 compared to 1999–2005, while natural forest expansion inthe rest of the country slowed down. Net increases in natural forestarea were therefore greatly reduced. Most of the recent reforesta-tion in Vietnam was thus due to increases in plantations (Table 9),compared to the relatively equal contribution of plantations andnatural regrowth between 1991–1993 and 2005 (Meyfroidt andLambin, 2008a). Continuing the same trend, deforestation in theCentral Highlands might shift the country back to net losses ofnatural forest over a few years.

5.3. REDD+ policies

This section discusses implications on policies to reducedeforestation and forest degradation in Vietnam, e.g. as could besupported by a REDD+ scheme. Some implications hold across theCentral Highlands. First, given the high value of the currentlybooming crops such as rubber, and thus the high opportunity costof conserving forests, policies based only on payments for forestpreservation are unlikely to be competitive enough to significantlyaffect deforestation (Hoang et al., 2010). Furthermore, in thatregion very few households hold title on forestlands, thus makingthem legally unable to receive payments except as contract forlabour (McElwee, 2012). Second, policies need to acknowledgesub-regional heterogeneity in deforestation contexts, even across afew dozens of kilometres. Although the Central Highlands are oftenregarded as one broad homogeneous deforestation front, impor-tant differences in land use and deforestation processes existbetween the rubber area in Binh Phuoc and southern Dak Nong andthe coffee basin in Dak Lak and northern Dak Nong. Thesedifferences call for subtle spatial targeting of policy measures.Controlling migration represents a huge challenge for localauthorities (Hardy, 2003), and might actually come as a conse-quence of tightened land use control rather than a tool to reducedeforestation. Suggestions to revise land zoning policies to directrubber expansion on so-called underutilized lands – i.e. alreadycleared and degraded, fallows lands (Hoang et al., 2010) – might

Table 9Annual rates of forest changes (total and natural) in Vietnam and in the Central Highl

Total forest

1999–2005

Net change (ha/year) 283,518

Deforestation in the Central Highlands (ha/year) �9876

Sources: Forest Inventory and Planning Institute and Forest Protection Department (w

Notes: Central Highlands here corresponds to the administrative region of the same nam

neighbouring provinces which are also part of the same deforestation front and agricu

drive land use displacement and further deforestation similar tothe coffee area, as these ‘‘unused’’ lands often belong to shiftingcultivation systems (Fox et al., 2009; Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2010).

In areas where deforestation is mostly caused by small-scalefarmers marginalized and displaced from the core agricultural areas,as in the coffee region, policies to control deforestation need toaddress these socio-economic dynamics. Ensuring more equitablesharing of the benefits of agricultural development, especiallyamong ethnic groups, might contribute to reduce deforestation.Paternalistic policies, designed to protect local ethnic minorities likethe Ede from loosing their main production asset in poorlynegotiated deals with Kinh immigrants, maintain them outside ofthe land markets by not allowing them to sell their land titles (Phan,2011). But thereby, Ede and Mnong having to sell their land for anyreason have to rely on illegal land transactions, which are less secureand bring few benefits (Phan, 2011). Revising these policies tointegrate local ethnic groups into the mainstream economy mightallow for more transparency and control over land transactions, andmore possibilities to equalize their bargaining power with Kinh andother immigrants (Phan, 2011). Agricultural intensification mighthave various effects on deforestation. Increasing productivity ofcoffee, rubber and other commodity crops for which global demandis elastic is likely to increase incentives for deforestation, in a so-called rebound-effect (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011; Pirard andBelna, 2012). Demand for staple crops being likely to be less elastic,rebound-effect would thus be less strong. Extension efforts forintensification of staple crops, especially in shifting cultivationsystems, might thus contribute to improve the socio-economicconditions of ethnic minorities while reducing deforestation, as itoccurred elsewhere in the Central Highlands (Muller and Zeller,2002) and the northern mountains of Vietnam (Sikor, 2001;Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2008b). Certification of coffee productionfor environmental and/or social standards might allow farmers tobenefit from more stable prices (Rueda and Lambin, 2013),constituting a useful way to counterbalance the fluctuating pricesof coffee and their harmful effects on livelihoods (Ha and Shively,2008). But the very intensive coffee cultivation system predominantin Vietnam, with sun-grown Robusta, important fertilizers inputsand irrigation, makes it difficult for smallholders to comply withmost certification standards (Neilson et al., 2010; Jha et al., 2011).Large-scale certification of Vietnamese coffee thus presents seriouschallenges, and does not directly address the displacement shown tobe the main direct cause of deforestation. Further, any policy tointensify or certify agriculture is limited by the near nonexistence ofextension services in the region.

The spatial pattern of deforestation does not correspond tolocations with the highest agro-ecological potential for crops(D’haeze et al., 2005). Due to its informal nature, deforestationcaused by displacement of marginalized smallholders is notintegrated into land use planning. Occasionally, pressed by anincreasing population facing land scarcity, local authorities grantrights to extend agricultural lands over forests or officialize theexistence of newly expanded cropland, in an ad hoc manner (Phan,2011). Based on the agro-ecological potential of land, and habitatand corridors conservation, spatial planning of production forestrylands destined to remain forested, versus those which might

ands.

Natural forest

2005–2009 1999–2005 2005–2009

160,536 139,829 14,033

�35,449 �31,431 �43,396

ww.kiemlam.org).

e (the provinces of Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Lam Dong, Dak Lak, and Dak Nong), and the

ltural colonization area (i.e. Binh Phuoc and Binh Thuan).

P. Meyfroidt et al. / Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 1187–1198 1197

eventually be cleared for agriculture, might be used to open newareas for smallholders and ethnic minorities. If not integrated witha policy to support marginalized smallholders, land zoning caneventually be mainly restrictive for subsistence agriculture, asmarket agriculture progressively displaces the former. Eventually,all these policies would face huge constraints related to multipleand sometimes competing layers of administration, and organiza-tional dysfunctions (Kerkvliet and Marr, 2004; Chong, 2012).Strong enforcement of land zoning policies, for example, has beenshown to significantly affect its effectiveness (Gaveau et al., 2009).Progresses towards sustainable land uses might thus emerge notonly from government’s efforts but also from agency of localpopulations and ethnic minorities struggling to shape their livesamidst the incoming forces of globalization (Hardy, 2012).

6. Conclusion

Deforestation in the study area was important over the 2000s,with gross rates reaching �0.38% y�1 of the total area between2000 and 2010, and �0.50% y�1 over 2005–2010, and correspond-ing net rates of �0.31% y�1 and �0.33% y�1. Deforestation wasmainly directly caused by shifting cultivation by smallholders, butthis was partly driven indirectly by expansion of coffee and othercommodity crops over agricultural lands. This displacement ofshifting cultivation into the forest margins, pushed by marketcrops expansion, was the spatial manifestation of a process ofmarginalization of households from local ethnic minorities,pushed by Kinh and other migrants. The contrast with other areasof the Central Highlands where deforestation was directly causedby rubber expansion highlights the importance of refined spatialknowledge and place-based policies. The relations between thiscolonization, deforestation and agricultural expansion front in theCentral Highlands and the national-scale reforestation in Vietnamcalls for further studies exploring the role of facilitating regions inforest transitions. Yet, over the most recent years, deforestation ofthe major remaining old-growth forests in Vietnam has started toshift the balance of natural forests back towards the negative oncountry level. Policies that could affect deforestation includeimproving inclusion of the ethnic minorities into the socio-economic, political and agricultural markets spheres, intensifyingstaple crops, and optimizing land zoning to identify forested landwith the lowest tradeoffs between environmental services andagricultural development for marginalized smallholders. Control-ling deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam will remainan arduous task, given the high profitability of agriculture and thecomparatively low population density which continues to attractmigrants, as in other frontiers with comparatively little labour andabundant land (Barbier, 2012), as well as the poor governanceenvironment. Proper understanding of the land use trajectoriesand underlying social dynamics at play may contribute todesigning more effective and equitable interventions. Withlooming global land scarcity and growing recognition of indirectand cascading land use changes (Harvey and Pilgrim, 2011; Lambinand Meyfroidt, 2011), the competition between extensive systems– such as traditional shifting cultivation for subsistence or localmarkets and extensive pasture on the one hand – and industrialplantations of commodity crops on the other hand bears increasingimportance on deforestation. In the Peruvian Amazon, high-yielding, large-scale industrial oil palm plantations expandedpreferentially over forests compared to low-yielding, smallholdersoil palm plantations (Gutierrez-Velez et al., 2011). By contrast, inthe southern Amazon of Brazil, recent soybean expansion occurredmainly over former pastures, allowing for simultaneously increas-ing agricultural production and reducing deforestation (Macedoet al., 2012). Yet, this expansion of soybean may have drivendeforestation indirectly by displacing pastures further in the

Amazon forest (Barona et al., 2010; Arima et al., 2011). This studyshowed that displacement of land use is a cross-scale process,occurring not only at international (Meyfroidt et al., 2010) andinter-regional (Pfaff and Walker, 2010) but also at local level. In anycase, to avoid displacement, policies to control deforestation andpromote sustainable land uses require the combination ofmeasures to increase supply, such as ecological agriculturalintensification, with measures to control land use expansion, suchas land zoning, and measures to control the demand (Meyfroidtand Lambin, 2011). Both the conditions under which suchdisplacement of land uses and indirect deforestation occurs, andthe appropriate policies to control it, deserve further analyses.

Acknowledgements

This study was partially funded by the European Union FP 7grant 226310 REDD-Alert (http://www.redd-alert.eu). The con-tents of this article are the responsibility of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. Wethank the anonymous reviewers for useful comments and insights.

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in

the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.04.005. These

data include Google maps of the most important areas described in

this article.

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