Transforming New Zealand's prosperity: the remarkable opportunity for physics

Paul CallaghanAlan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences

Victoria University of Wellington

Some New Zealand economic history

Pasture research.Strain and breedingNitrogen fixing role Bush-sickness-cobalt deficiencyIntegrated pastoral systemsThe role of phosphateAerial topdressingThe electric fenceMilk tankersThe science of milk productsMechanised cheesemaking Geoffrey Peren

Francis Dry

Alpine Zone

Tussock

Exotic grassland

Exotic forest

Scrub, wetlands

Native forest

Settlements, crops

100

80

60

40

20

01000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

year

Recent history of New Zealand land coverperc

ent

tota

l lan

d ar

ea

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

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QuickTime™ and a decompressor

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QuickTime™ and a decompressor

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22 August to 5 October World Health Organisationrecommended

EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZwww.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/

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o C

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Dunedin September

time (hh:mm)00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00

living room

outdoors

Sarah Shannon, Bob Lloyd, Jacob Roos and Jan Kohlmeyer

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Source: David Bibby, 1998

Meat Exports/Pharmaceutical Imports

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1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Year

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1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010

Year

Rat

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Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average

New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion

Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $33,300

New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $26,200

shortfallUS$ 29.2 billion

OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/

Japan

Greece Spain

Iceland

Canada USA

IrelandUKSweden

Italy

Germany Belgium

France

Austria

Netherlands

Finland

SwitzerlandAustralia

JapanNew Zealand

Greece Spain

Iceland

Canada USA

IrelandUKSweden

Italy

Germany Belgium

France

Austria

Netherlands

Finland

SwitzerlandAustralia

Japan

New Zealand

Greece

Spain

IcelandCanada

USA

Ireland

Sweden

Italy

Germany

Switzerland

Australia Belgium,Netherlands Austria

Finland UKFrance

prosperity

The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee

Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*

Total New Zealand population as at March 2009 4.32 million*

New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200

NZ $45,200

AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300

NZ $57,400

shortfallUS $29.2 billion

OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/

* NZTE

Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*

Total New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million*

To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)

= NZ $143,000

New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200

NZ $45,200

AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300

NZ $57,400

shortfallUS $29.2 billion

OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/

* NZTE

The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee

Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*

Total FTE New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million*

To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)

We need another US $30 billion per annum exportsNew activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE!

New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200

NZ $45,200

AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300

NZ $57,400

shortfallUS $29.2 billion

OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/

* NZTE

The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee

Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion

Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion

Me

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4

6

8F

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ear

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US

$ b

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NZ External Trade Statisticshttp://www.stats.govt.nz

2006 US$ 32 billion

Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed

Track Name n2 Not at all Crowded

Slightly Crowded

Moderately Crowded

Extremely Crowded

North Island   % % % %

Lake Waikaremoana (GW)

29 21 48 24 7

Tongariro (GW) 51 27 45 18 10

UoO dept Tourism

Increase tourism by factor of 4?

Tourism

Tourism expenditure in New Zealand, year ending March 2007 $20.1 billion. (International expenditure $8.8 billion and domestic expenditure $11.3 billion).

Tourism’s economic contribution to the New Zealand economy for the year ending March 2007 $14.1 billion of value-added activity or 9.2% of Gross Domestic Product.

Employment in tourism in New Zealand for the year ending March 2007 comprised 181,200 FTEs or 9.7% of total employment in New Zealand.

NZ $77,814 revenue per employee (direct + indirect)

Must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee

* Statistics NZ

Meet ‘psycho’ for only $7950

Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani

0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

Needed for current

per capita GDP

200,000100,000 300,000

Tourism

Rev

enue

per

em

ploy

ee

FTE of employment

0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

Needed for current

per capita GDP

200,000100,000 300,000

Total NZ Manufacturing

Tourism

Rev

enue

per

em

ploy

ee

FTE of employment

NZ Manufacturing Exports

Food manufacturing

Wine

0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

Needed for current

per capita GDP

200,000100,000 300,000

Fonterra

Total NZ Manufacturing

Tourism

Rev

enue

per

em

ploy

ee

FTE of employment

NZ Manufacturing Exports

Food manufacturing

Wine

0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

Needed for current

per capita GDP

200,000100,000 300,000

Fonterra

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Total NZ Manufacturing

Tourism

Rev

enue

per

em

ploy

ee

FTE of employment

NZ Manufacturing Exports

Food manufacturing

Wine

Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion

Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion

Me

at

Da

iry

Fis

h

Fru

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4

6

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NZ External Trade Statisticshttp://www.stats.govt.nz

2006 US$ 32 billion

A handful of slimy algaeand lake weed, being pulledout of Lake Rotoiti

Photo: Arno Gasteiger

The problem with dairy expansion (factor of five)

NZ Greenhouse gas emissionshttp://www.mfe.govt.nz

US $ revenues and profits

NZ $ 400,000 per employee

*

*

Environment Industry

NZ

POR

DENIRL

CANAUSTFIN

USABEL MEX TA FR JPNNED SW GER SP UK

Agriculture, F and F

Our place on the research funding phase diagram

Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998

$9 per kg

$3000 per kg

Abt Associates report to MoRSTwww.morst.govt.nz

New Economy Research Fund1999-2005 New Zealand

USA(and nearly everyone else)

www.morst.govt.nz

$100m

$200m

$300m

$400m

$500m

$1410m

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1

F and P appliances Datacom

F and P Healthcare Navico

NDA ProvencoCadmus

Rakon Gallagher

Weta Ltd Tait Electronics Ltd

Douglas pharmaceuticals Allied Telesis

MethvenTru Test

GlidepathDynamic controls

CWF HamiltonSchneider electric

Skope industriesBCS group

HumanwareInfinity group

NZ Pharmaceuticals

TIN100 New Zealand Technology Companies

Rank

An

nua

l re

ven

ue

(NZ

$)

www.hotscience.co.nz

Beyond the Farm and the Themepark

50 minute documentaryTVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008

Auckland University PressMarch 2009

McMurdo Sound

NMR of Antarctic Sea Ice

Mercier, Hunter and C, 2004

Craig Eccles physicist/engineer

Robin Dykstra physicist/engineer

Science/engineering/business partnership

Andrew Coy physicist/businessmanCEO Magritek

Science/engineering/business partnership

One-sided access NMR

NZ $150,000 per employee

2 MHz Halbach magnet rockcore analyzer

• 10 staff: existing products selling well• New 2008 offshore investment (London and New York)• $1 000 000 sales in 2008• $1 000 000 sales by June 2009• Significant potential for new products

Magritek prospects

NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009

Magritek export sales

NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009

Magritek export sales

NZ Taxpayer return on investment 1993 to 2009

Craig Eccles -to ETH Zurich now Magritek

Peter Daivis -to ANU now A/Prof, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia

Yang Xia - to Cornell now Prof., Oakland University, Detroit, USA

Andrew Coy- to KTH, Stockholm now CEO Magritek,

Craig Rofe - to UCSF, USA now Onslow College, Wellington

Jim Hargreaves - to New Zealand Dairy Research Institute

Bertram Manz - to Cambridge Univ., now Magritek

Miki Komlosh -to Freiburg University, now NIH, Washington, USA

Maria Kilfoil-to Harvard University, now Prof McGill U., Canada

Ryan Cormier (PhD)-to, Ottawa, now Physician, Canada

Alexandre Khrapitchev-to Cambridge Univ. now Oxford, UK

Roger Meder-to QUT, Australia now ENSIS, Australia

Maria del Rosario Lopez-Gonzalez-to PDF, U Glasgow, UK.

Robin Dykstra - to VUW, co-founder Magritek

Antoine Lutti -to PDF at UCL, UK

Simon Rogers -to PDF at FORTH, Greece

Kate Washburn -to ResLab, Norway

PhD students completed 1985-2009

World-connected, entrepreneurial, engaged with public

Our PhD student obligations

Science is a way of looking at the world to try to understand natural phenomena and their causes in a way that is self-consistent and corresponds with reality.

ValuesEvidence-based decisionsPeer review as a way of life A rational, if not benign, natureScepticism as a virtueWhat numbers mean and what they do not meanExpressing complex ideas with simple clarityKnowledge is not to be feared

Professor Lewis Wolpert

Scientists as leaders in society

“Rich economies must defend themselves by remaining on the cutting edge of research, moving into new and growing branches, learning from others, finding the right niches, by cultivating and using ability and knowledge.

Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise, their sense of identity and commitment to thecommon weal, their self-esteem, their ability to transmit these assets across the generations.”

The one lesson that emerges is the need to keep trying. No miracles, no perfection, no millennium, no apocalypse. We must cultivate a sceptical faith, avoid dogma, listen and watch well,try to clarify and define ends, the better to choose means.”