Transforming the forest products industry through innovation Opportunities for the Future Forest...

Transforming the forest products industry through innovation

Opportunities for the Future Forest Products Industry

Ron BrownPresident and Executive Director

Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance

North Carolina State University Pulp and Paper Foundation Annual MeetingSeptember 12, 2013

1


Where Will the Paper Industry Be in 10-20 Years?

United States: AF&PABetter Practices, Better Planet sustainability goals for 2020

Canada: FPAC Vision 2020 – One-third growth by 2020 from product innovations, significant sustainability improvement

Europe: CEPI Roadmap for low-carbon economy(To impact 2050, must develop new technologies now!)

2

Next-Level Process Efficiency

Next-Level Sustainability

Growth in Current and New Markets


Many Projections of the Industry’s Future

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Better Practices, Better Planet 2020

AF&PA

Canada: Bio-Pathways

FPAC

FPI Tech RoadmapAgenda 2020

Europe: Unfold the Future2050 Low-Carbon

RoadmapCEPI

Canada: Vision 2020

FPAC

Europe: Horizons –

Vision 2030 EU FTP

Europe: Strategic Research Agenda for 2020 EU FTP

End of Tunnel?

PPI Survey

TransformationsSten Nilsson

Future from Fibre

WBCSD

Facts Trends Vision 2050

WBCSD

State of the Pulp Industry

Rod Fisher

Growing the Future

PWC

Living Forests

WWF Intl

Environmental Vision

Envir Paper Network

Global Trends 2030Natl Intelligence Council

Manufacturing the FutureMcKinsey

Vision 2050: New Agenda for

Business WBCSD


Consensus: A Vibrant Future Industry

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Worldwide demand of traditional paper products grows 1.5% per year average over next 40 years

• Steady growth in packaging grades

• Printing and writing grades continue declining to 2030

Many opportunities in the emerging biobased economy• Forest resource is excellent foundation

• No competition with food

• Biobased materials offer value, not competition for fiber

• Integrate with existing manufacturing


Opportunity: Forest Biomaterials in the Emerging Bioeconomy

Get the highest possible value from resources – wood, forest residuals, recycled fiber

Develop new markets while growing markets for traditional wood and paper products

$200 billion a year global market potential (FPAC) $100 billion a year for biobased polymers (Lux)(U.S. forest products are $200 billion) • Green chemicals and biofuels• Plastics • Lightweight composites • Bendable concrete with cellulosic

nanomaterials (example shown)

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Forest Biomaterials:$200 Billion Global Market Potential

(FPAC Biopathways, 2011)

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Unfold the Future: The Forest Fibre Industry 2050 Roadmap to a Low-Carbon Bio-Economy CEPI, 2011

www.unfoldthefuture.eu

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The Bioeconomy Requires Innovation

http://www.unfoldthefuture.eu/


Opportunity: Improved and New Products

Lighter, stronger paper and paperboard• Strength from cellulosic nanomaterials

Higher-value, specialized papers and packaging• Novel optical properties

• Barrier to vapors, reduced sensitivity to moisture

• Niche products for population that is aging and more urban

• Smart packaging

New products• Flexible electronics (example shown)

• Clear films from renewables

8


Opportunity: Wood and Fiber

9

Wood is available.

Wood removals in 2050 three times current rate.

(WWF Living Forests, 2012)• Steadily growing demand for wood

and paper products• Escalation in wood for bioenergy

Annual Wood RemovalsWWF Living Forests Model

(million cubic meters)

2010 2030 2050

3,401 7,168 – 7,553

11,356 – 13,082

Forest plantations are more productive than natural forests and will become larger portion of global wood supply.

Global demand for long-fiber kraft pulp is opportunity for southern U.S.


Opportunity: Sustainable Manufacturing

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Many calls for a sustainable industry

Renewable energy – good progress with fuels and CHP

More attention needed on mill water and energy demands• Concerns about future access to water in some locations• Little or no recent progress in water or energy use per ton

Envir. Paper Networkchart for 2000-08


Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing

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Improving sustainability metrics is difficult without new equipment

• North American mills mostly are well-optimized and have much old equipment

• World’s oldest fleet of bleached kraft pulp mills in N. America

Best available technologies offer 20-25% reduction in energy use per ton in U.S.

• High capital investment needed to implement BAT

New technologies if developed could give another 20% reduction


Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing

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Recovered fiber will become larger share of furnish• Higher waste recovery rates, lower fiber quality

• Impacts on strength and mill operations

Mills will become host platforms for bioproducts • Mill infrastructure is good foundation for producing

biomaterials as add-on processes

• Integrate process systems to reduce energy, water, wastes, capital

• Opportunity to improve mill sustainability metrics


Opportunity: Marketing Industry Advantages

Forest products offer many advantages to society• Renewable raw material from sustainable forests

• Recyclable products, high rate of recovery and reuse

• Renewable energy

The paper industry intends to launch a new marketing program in 2014 – do a better job of telling our story• Paper Check-Off (www.papercheckoff.com)

• USDA-sanctioned fund from producers

• Organizational activities led by AF&PA

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http://www.papercheckoff.com/


Opportunity: Breakthrough Technologies

Urgent need for breakthrough technologies to address the opportunities

• New and improved products

• More efficient manufacturing

• Get “a better story to tell”

Start development now to be ready for first installations by 2030 to have large impact in 2050

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Challenge: Outlook for Innovation Is Bleak

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Industry spends less on R&D than competitive industries: • R&D % of sales: 0.24% paper, 0.7% textiles, 1.3% plastics• Patent intensity: 1.2 paper, 4.1 textiles, 10.7 plastics• Lacks capacity for much mid and long-term research

Federal R&D spending is available but mostly bypasses our industry.

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Agenda 2020 – A Unique Voice for the Industry

• Identifies full set of industry technology needs (2010 Forest Products Industry Technology Roadmap)

• Drives consensus on R&D priorities

• Promotes R&D programs funded in part by government

• Informs government agencies and universities about industry research needs

• Member-funded 501(c)(3) organization• Not a lobbying group• Supports and works closely with AF&PA


Agenda 2020 R&D Priorities

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Conclusion: Pursue the Opportunities

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Attractive opportunities exist and need new technologies• Forest biomaterials• Sustainable manufacturing• Improved and new products

Best technologies available today are expensive and not sufficient to achieve market potential and sustainability

Research on breakthroughs is needed now • More money for industry R&D• New technologies must be in place by 2030 to have large

impact by 2050


Thank You

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For More Information

Ron BrownPresident & Executive DirectorAgenda 2020 Technology [email protected] 202-463-2742

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Transforming the forest products industry through innovation Opportunities for the Future Forest...

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