SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES)
A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 - 2007
Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway
email: [email protected]
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
OutlineOutline
Background and objectives
Energy supply scenariosInitial EMPS simulations (SINTEF)Initial MARKAL simulations (IFE)Multiple strategy MARKAL scenarios (IFE)Trade-off analysis (MIT)Updated EMPS simulations (SINTEF)
ePlan demand forecasting tool Specification and setup Model developmentForecast scenarios
No conclusions yet...
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES ObjectivesTRANSES Objectives
Outline and evaluate likely technology portfolios, deployment paths and policy options to meet future energy service needs in a cost-effective and sustainable manner in a liberalized energy market environment
Create an international arena for dissemination of results, dialogue and exchange of ideas in order to gain a swifter transition to sustainable energy services
PhD education and long-term scientific cooperation between the institutions involved
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
TRANSES SponsorsTRANSES Sponsors
Project idea created by Hydro, The Industry’s Innovation Fund at NTNU and Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU
Project management by SINTEF Energy Research
Budget (2003-2007): 15 mill NOK
Sponsors:HydroStatoilHydroNorske ShellStatkraftStatnettStatsbyggEnovaNVE
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Scientific partners of TRANSESScientific partners of TRANSES
Dept. of Energy and Process Engineering, NTNU
Dept. of Electrical Power Engineering, NTNU
Dept. of Architectural Design, History and Technology, NTNU
SINTEF Energy Research
SINTEF Building and Infrastructure
The Laboratory For Energy and the Environment (LFEE) at MIT
Institute for Energy Technology (IFE)
NTNU LFEE
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Scandinavia Scandinavia –– an ideal region for analysisan ideal region for analysisLimited geographical scope
Norway, Sweden, Finland and DenmarkLimited connections to neighboring countriesTransparency (data availability)
All major energy resources/technologies presentHydro, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, wind, …Hydro dominated supply (stochastic resource availability)Electricity dependent demand
Open markets and competitionCommon liberalized power market (NordPool)Emerging European gas marketEmerging “green certificate” marketsNew renewables have to compete in current markets
Challenging region for experimenting with new planning models and methodologies!
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
ElectricityElectricity GenerationGeneration in Nordel 2006 (TWh)in Nordel 2006 (TWh)
DENMARK
SWEDEN
FINLAND
NORWAY
Conv. thermalNuclearHydroWind
6.1
37.2
11.3
22.0
45.1
0.7 1.1
119.9
1.0
13.2
61.2 65.0
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
NOU 1998:11NOU 1998:11 ElectricityElectricity demanddemand scenariosscenarios
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025År
TWh
Green BrainpowerHeavy C-1Heavy C-2Steady courseJourney upActual demand
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
ePlanspec.
(SINTEF/NTNU)
ePlanspec.
(SINTEF/NTNU)
ePlandevelopment
(SINTEF/ NTNU)
ePlandevelopment
(SINTEF/ NTNU)
Demandforecasts(SINTEF/ NTNU)
Demandforecasts(SINTEF/ NTNU)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
2004:2004: Outlining main scenariosOutlining main scenarios
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
EMPS:EMPS: EEFIsFIs MMultiulti--Area Area PPower Market ower Market SSimulatorimulator
3SINTEF Energy Research
Reservoir utilization in EMPS ModelReservoir utilization in EMPS Model
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 102
Week
GW
h
Minimum25 percentileMedian75 percentileMaximum
25SINTEF Energiforskning AS
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1990
1989
1983
1943
1976
1967
1968
1954
1935
1962
1965
1975
1934
1972
1937
1987
1946
1933
1955
1931
1971
1986
1980
1951
1947
1948
1936
1977
1941
1970
Hydro year
Am
ount
(TW
h/ye
ar)
Eksp Finland 0.1 TWh/årEksport Danmark 0.3 TWh/årEksport Sverige 5.2 TWh/årImport Finland 0.2 TWh/årImport Danmark 4.3 TWh/årImport Sverige 14.8 TWh/år
Electricity import to Norway (TWh/year)Electricity import to Norway (TWh/year)
21SINTEF Energy Research
Example of spot price scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 21 41 61 81 101
Week number
Mar
ket p
rice(
NO
K/M
Wh)
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
EMPS Generation Capacity, EMPS Generation Capacity, NordPoolNordPool areaarea Green Business scenarioGreen Business scenario
Energy supply: +92 TWhA little new hydro power (+7 TWh)Nuclear increased (+7 TWh)
Only Barsebackdecommissioned1 new nuclear in Finland
Much coal/oil is decommissioned (-38 TWh). Much new bio power (+25 TWh)Much more new wind power (+65 TWh)Much new gas power (+30 TWh)Net import (to Nordic countries) is reduced a little (-4 TWh)
GreBus
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ann
ual G
ener
atio
n (T
Wh)
Hydro Nuc Fossil BioWind CHP+ Imp
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
EMPS Power pricesEMPS Power prices NorwayNorway
Power prices Norway
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Øre
/kW
h
BusUsa GreBus Seq RedC CeH2 Beyo
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Res
ourc
es
Impo
rtM
inin
gE
xpor
t
Conversion
Process
End use devices
End
use
dem
and
Energy efficiency
Sto
cks
Elec/district heat
Energy carriers
ENERGY CONVERSION
2005:2005: MARKAL MARKAL simulationssimulations The The structurestructure ofof a MARKAL a MARKAL modelmodel
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
2005 MARKAL scenarios2005 MARKAL scenarios
1. Business as usual (BAU)BAU: with limitations in potential for energy efficiencyCO2: with limitation on CO2-emissions (Kyoto)
2. Low Carbon (LC)LC: quota price (20 EUR/t CO2 from 2010)LCEOR: quota price + enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at 40 EUR/t CO2
3. Green business (GB)GB: Common green certificate market in the Nordic region (20%)GBSN: Green certificate market in Sweden and Norway (20%) GBWIND: As GB, with offshore wind in deep sea
4. Reduced Consumption (RC)RC: Reduced consumption and increased potential for energy efficiency
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
MARKAL: MARKAL: GenerationGeneration capacitycapacity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
BAU2030
GB2030
GBSN2030
GBWIND2030
2005
Elec
tric
itypr
oduc
tion
(TW
h/a)
Other renewables(small hydro, PV, wave etc)BioWindOther(oil, peat, waste, multifuel etc)GasCoalNuclearHydro
LC2030
LCEOR2030
CO22030
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Scenario
2006:2006: Multiple strategy scenariosMultiple strategy scenarios
Technology options combine into Strategies and uncertainties combine into different Futures
• Existing Generation Technologies • New Generation Technologies • Power Delivery • Alternate Fuels • Conservation & Load Mgt. • Efficiency Standards • Taxes/Subsidies
Options and Option-Sets
• Economic Growth • Market Reform/Regulations • Fuel Costs and Availability • Technology Costs & Performance • Shifting Consumption Patterns • Modernization of Industry
Uncertainties
Strategy Future
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
From 8 to 1152 scenariosFrom 8 to 1152 scenarios
64 unique StrategiesWindpower (2x)Hydropower (2x)Nuclear power (2x)Coal and gas w CCS (2x)Import/export (1x)Biomass (2x)Waste (1x)Res and Com EUE (1x)Industrial EUE (1x)Res and Com Th. Fuels (1x)Road Transport (2x)
18 UncertaintiesEnergy Demand (3x)Fuel Prices (3x)CO2 Taxation (2x)European Elec. Price (1x)
=> Total no. of scenarios: 64 x 18 = 1152
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Cum. CO2 emissions 2005-34 (Mt)
Tota
l dis
coun
ted
syst
em c
ost
(Bill
EU
R) All scenarios
Max strategies
Max futures
Baseline
2007:2007: TradeTrade--off analysis off analysis Look at the performance of multi-option
Strategies across multiple Futures
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
2007:2007: Selected scenarios back to EMPSSelected scenarios back to EMPS Weekly marketWeekly market pricesprices in in NorwayNorway
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Weeks
(EUcent/kWh)
BaselineNuclear and BioAll Technologies
4002000
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Main Main activitiesactivities
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
Scenariooutlines
(MIT)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
EMPSsimulations
(SINTEF)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
Trade-offanalysis(MIT/IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
MARKALsimulations
(IFE)
ePlanspec.
(SINTEF/NTNU)
ePlanspec.
(SINTEF/NTNU)
ePlandevelopment
(SINTEF/ NTNU)
ePlandevelopment
(SINTEF/ NTNU)
ePlanforecasts(SINTEF/ NTNU)
ePlanforecasts(SINTEF/ NTNU)
2004 2005 2006 2007
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
2005/06:2005/06: ePlanePlan energy demand forecasting toolenergy demand forecasting tool Main Main conceptconcept
E = A x IActivityActivity
[m2, NOK]
[kWh/m2, kWh/NOK]IntensityIntensity
EnergyEnergy
[Energy carriers, Sectors,Purpose]
Heating systems [% installed,% use etc]
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
ePlanePlan: Forecasting based on historical trends: Forecasting based on historical trends
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1. Historical trendsI = E/A
2. ForecastingE = A x I
Energy demand
Activity
Intensity
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Energy definitions in Energy definitions in ePlanePlan
Technical systems
Technical systems DistributionDistribution TransformationTransformation
E_used
E_primary
E_delivered
On-siterenewables
(free energy)
On-siterenewables
(free energy)
Small house stock 2005Energy intensity: 157 kWh/m2 year
Carriers (E_delivered)Services (E_used)
Temperaturedependent
Thermal 29 %
Hot water
Electricity 71 %FansLightingEquipment
59 %
15 %
3 %10 %13 %
SINTEF Energiforskning AS
Transition to Sustainable Energy Transition to Sustainable Energy Services in Northern Europe Services in Northern Europe (TRANSES) (TRANSES)
A joint research program NTNU / SINTEF / MIT / Chalmers 2004 - 2007
Dr. Bjorn H. Bakken Energy Systems SINTEF Energy Research Trondheim, Norway
email: [email protected]
