Translating Science into Long-term Delta Policy
Ellen HanakPublic Policy Institute of CaliforniaCALFED Science Conference, 2008
Some thoughts based on the PPIC-UC Davis Delta reports
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Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Engineers:Jay Lund, UC Davis
William Fleenor, UC DavisEconomists:
Ellen Hanak, PPICRichard Howitt, UC Davis
Biologists:Peter Moyle, UC Davis
William Bennett, UC DavisGeologist:
Jeffrey Mount, UC Davis
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Outline
Setting objectives
Useful tools and approaches
Linking science and policy: some examples
Next steps and questions
Goal: inform policy discussions with independent analysis
As non-stakeholders, free to take an unconstrained look at Delta conditions, policy optionsIf no questions are automatically off the table, how to ensure relevance?– Interdisciplinary perspectives– Stakeholder consultations (scoping device)– Policy and technical reviews– Quick turn-around (necessary in this case)
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Toolkit for mobilizing insights with a quick turn-around
Syntheses of existing science– Esp. in biological, geophysical sciences
Available quantitative modeling tools– Hydrodynamics (WAM)– Economics of alternatives (CALVIN, SWAP)
Expert surveys– Fish responses to water management– Drinking water quality– Legal and regulatory issues
Decision analysis – Insights despite uncertainty
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Water quality management and the Clean Water Act
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Sea level rise (ft)
Biology: greater variability better for desirable speciesHydrodynamics: future Delta farming compromised by sea level rise, weak leveesLegal/regulatory: can CWA enforcement accommodate greater variability sooner?
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Sacramento River at Emmaton
San Joaquin River at Jersey Point
Days exceeding irrigation standards (%)
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Sea level rise (ft)
Clifton Court Forebay
Delta levees and liability
Geophysics: high failure probabilities for many leveesEconomics: not all islands worth savingHydrodynamics: not all islands needed for water qualityLegal/regulatory: thorny questions about liability, state and federal roles
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Habitat conservation plans and the Endangered Species Act
Biology: fish prospects best with no exports, but still high risks of species lossLegal/regulatory:– Hard to disentangle
exports from other harmful factors
– HCPs allow multi-species focus, but ESA risks shutting down projects with single species loss
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Next steps
Adaptation potential of future Delta economyMore hydrodynamics, operations analysis:– Implications of
island floodingKey operational question for PC:– Minimum
environmental flow requirements
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Unresolved questions about approach
Are there limits to an arm’s length approach?– Challenge to make use of “maverick”
enterprises (sometimes ends up in the policy “spin zone”)
Can this type of work be done within agencies?– Need something more directed than NSF-
type program (CALFED model)– But with freedom to come up with
inconvenient answers
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