Transportation and EmissionsTransportation and Emissions in Chile in Chile

March, 2003March, 2003Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)

Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D)Cambio Climatico y Desarrollo (CC&D)

Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)

International Institute for Sustainable Development International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)(IISD)

Climate Science Trends Latest IPCC Findings Transportation & Climate Change Chile’s Contribution to CO2 Emissions Conclusions & Next Steps

IntroductionIntroduction

Global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by ~ 1°F.

1990s warmest decade on record, 1998 warmest yr.

Global avg. sea level rose 4-8” in 20th century. Present CO2 concentration highest in 20 million

years. Rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years.

“There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”

Latest IPCC FindingsLatest IPCC Findings

Average surface temperature is predicted to increase by 2.5 °F - 10.4 °F

The projected warming rate is the highest in at least 10,000 years

The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that sea level rise would be 20 cm by 2030 and 1-m by 2100

Latest IPCC FindingsLatest IPCC Findings

Key factorsKey factors Travel activity (VMT, ton-miles)Travel activity (VMT, ton-miles)

Mode splitMode split

Vehicle energy intensity (mpg, loading)Vehicle energy intensity (mpg, loading)

Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)Fuel carbon content (lifecycle)

In Chile, the transportation sector In Chile, the transportation sector represents largest source of man-made represents largest source of man-made GHG emissions - approximately 28%GHG emissions - approximately 28%

Transportation & Climate Change

Pew Center for Global Climate Change: Transport GHG emissions in Chile could increase by 117% in the ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) scenario (2000-2020) versus 42% in the low emissions scenario (LES) - BAU = no strong actions to curb GHG emissions- LES = policies to improve public transportation

and introduce cleaner, more efficient vehicles

BackgroundBackground

Passenger Travel by ModePassenger Travel by Mode

In Greater Santiago, between 1977 and 1991, car trips increased by ~6% while bus trips declined by ~18%

1 in 10 people in Santiago, now own cars

Passenger transportation accounts for about 2/3 of transportation sector GHG emissions

Chile’s COChile’s CO22 Emissions by Mode (2000) Emissions by Mode (2000)

Buses10%

Trucks22%

Airplanes9%

Cars & Light

Trucks36%

Ships13%

Taxis10%

Emissions from Passenger CarsEmissions from Passenger Cars

GHGs from Passenger Cars in Chile: 2000 - 2020(Data from Pew Center Report)

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Gro

wth

Re

lati

ve t

o 2

000

Vehicle Kilometers

Total GHGs

GHG Emissions Rate

This project, with its emphasis on mitigating CO2 from the transportation sector, can:

Quantify the potential CO2 benefit of travel demand, vehicle efficiency and other transportation policies

Set a precedent for the role transportation projects must play in addressing the challenge of climate change

ConclusionsConclusions