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Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented to
TRB 11th Conference on Transportation Planning Applications
presented by
Dan Goldfarb, P.E.Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 2007
A Practical Approach for Post-Processing Managed Lane Facilities
2
ETL Lanes
Electronic Toll Lanes
Tool for Managing Demand
Price to Keep Traffic Moving
Guide for HOT Lane Development, FHWA,
3
ETL Projects
Maryland State Highway Administration Projects
• Inter-County Connector (ICC)
• Capital Beltway (I-495/I-95)
• I-270 from I-70 to I-370
• Western Mobility I-495 to I-270
Role - Developed Travel Demand Forecast
4
ETL Forecast Issues
Develop Year 2030 Forecast for the ICC
Toll Facility
Variable Tolls to Manage Demand
Guarantee Traffic Flow Reasonable LOS
Threshold LOS “C” to LOS “D” conditions –
1800 pcphpl
6% HV, Rolling Terrain – 1650 vph
Open Process for EIS
5
Travel Demand Model
MWCOG V2.1C Travel Demand Forecast Model
Validated Study Corridor
Base year 2000
No-Build Year 2030
Tolls ― Travel Time Penalty Assignment
6
V2.1C Toll Application Improvements
Convert Toll Cost to Time Equivalent
Trip Distribution
4 Income Groups
Work & Non-Work Purposes
Mode Choice
Average Cost by Purpose
Vary Peak & Off-Peak
Per Person Cost for HOV
Assignment
Vehicle Cost
Vary Peak & Off-Peak
Source: MWCOG V2.1C User’s Guide & Technical Memorandum Oct-21-2003
7
Time & Cost Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
INC 1 INC 2 INC 3 INC 4
minu
tes p
er $
Wage (min/$) Work Eqv (min/$) Non-Work Eqv (min/$)
By Income Level & Purpose
Source: MWCOG User’s Guide V2.1D #50 Model
8
Time & Cost Equivalents
0
5
10
15
20
Airport Auto SOV Auto HOV Auto Truck
min
utes
per
dol
lar
Peak (min/$) Off-Peak (min/$)
By Vehicle & Time Period
Source: MWCOG User’s Guide V2.1D #50 Model
9
Toll Cost & Time
Vehicle
Peak Off-Peak
(minutes) (minutes)
Airport Auto 4.54 3.40
Single Occupant Auto 9.25 9.93
Multi Occupant Auto 11.61 11.56
Truck 23.22 24.90
3.45 miles
5.62 miles
IncomeGroup
Peak Off-Peak
WorkNonWork Work
NonWork
(minutes) (minutes) (minutes) (minutes)
inc 1 38.28 54.78 28.71 41.09
inc 2 14.15 20.14 10.61 15.10
inc 3 8.34 11.97 6.26 8.98
inc 4 4.17 5.99 3.13 4.49
10
Travel Demand Forecast Model Assignment
Large Geographic Area
Coarse Network
Macro-level Assignment
11
Refinement of The Travel Demand Model Output
Post-Process
Applied at the link level
Procedures from NCHRP-255
“Link Smoothing”
Benefits• Raw Assignment Capital Beltway RMSE 14%
• Link Refinement Capital Beltway RMSE 6%
• Annual Growth Factor RMSE 25%
12
Link Refinement
Part 1 – Model Bias
• Ratio Adjustment
• Difference Adjustment
Part 2 – Redistribution
• Count factor
• Capacity Factor
13
ETL — Managed Facility
Redistribution Problem
Capacity Based
Constraints:→ Reflect Managed Nature of Facility
→ Reflect the Results of Model Run
14
Post-Processing Approaches for ETL Facility
Use the Raw Model Output
Limit ETL Facility to 1650 vphpl
Incorporate ETL Into the Link Refinement Procedure
15
ETL Raw Model Output Approach
Represent the Toll Impact on the Demand
Issue of Coarse Network – Loading Points
Macro ― Level Assignment Algorithm
Facility Open to All Traffic ― Over/Under
16
Fixed Volume Flow Approach
Limit the Volume 1650 vphpl
Redistribute the Surplus or Shortfall to other Parallel Competing Routes
Differs from Results of the Travel Demand Model Assignment
Not Reflecting the Cost of Toll – Pricing Question
17
Incorporating the ETL into the Link Refinement Approach
Redistribute Volumes Over the Cutline
Capacity & Count Factors
New Facility Impedance – Capacity
Adjust Capacity for the ETL Facility Reflect Demand
18
Capacity Adjustment
Freeway LOS “E” Capacity (2310 vphpl)
Apply Peak to Daily Ratio Factor (8%) ― Daily Capacity
Two Model Runs
• Toll
• Non-Toll
Adjust the ETL Capacity Based on the Ratio of the Raw Assignments for Toll & Non-Toll
Apply the Ratio to the LOS “E” Capacity for the ETL
Redistribute Volumes over the Cutline
Review Results – Adjust Toll Accordingly
19
Overview of Process
EndNo Yes
Start
SetToll Cost
ExportLink Data
Assign Links
to Cutlines
CalculateETL LaneCapacity
EvaluateToll
Demand
Demand OK
RunTDFMNo Toll
RunTDFM
Toll
Volnon-toll
Voltoll
× Capacity LOS E{
PeakOff-Peak
NCHRP-255 Procedures
20
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd
ICC
21
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd
ICC 68,986 vpd
22
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd 35,927 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd 34,803 vpd
ICC 68,986 vpd
23
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd 35,927 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd 34,803 vpd
ICC 68,986 vpd 78,546 vpd
24
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd 35,927 vpd 26,667 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd 34,803 vpd 42,501 vpd
ICC 68,986 vpd 78,546 vpd
25
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd 35,927 vpd 26,667 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd 34,803 vpd 42,501 vpd
ICC 68,986 vpd 78,546 vpd 62,958 vpd
26
Results
Facility 2000 CountDirect Model Output Raw
Fixed Capacity
Incorporate Part 2 of Link
Refinement Procedure
MD 28 20,000 vpd 35,927 vpd 26,667 vpd 29,391 vpd
Randolph Road 33,800 vpd 34,803 vpd 42,501 vpd 46,667 vpd
ICC 68,986 vpd 78,546 vpd 62,958 vpd
ICC Toll Volume: 68,986 vpd
ICC No-Toll Volume: 127,723 vpd
Capacity Reduction Factor: 52%
27
Toll Demand Analysis
ICC Corridor 1 ADT Volumes
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
West of I-370 West of MD 97 West of MD182
West of MD650
West of US 29 West of BriggsChaney
West of A-59 West of I-95 West of VirginiaManor
West of US 1
AD
T
Toll 8/5 Toll 30/20 No Toll Toll 20/15 Toll 15/10
Managed LOC "C" Capacity
28
Summary
Developing ETL Forecast
Traditional 4-Step Travel Demand Forecast Model
Incorporate ETL Characteristics into NCHRP-255 Link Refinement Procedures
Redistribute the Link Volumes based on Capacity
Calculate the ETL Capacity Based on No-Toll and Toll Model Runs & Adjust ETL Capacity for Redistribution
Open Process for EIS Requirements
Report Regional Impacts & Measures of Effectiveness