Page 1
Transportation leadership you can trust.
presented topresented to
TRB Planning Applications ConferenceTRB Planning Applications Conference
presented bypresented by
Elizabeth SallElizabeth SallMaren OutwaterMaren OutwaterCambridge Systematics, Inc.Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
with with
Metropolitan Transportation CommissionMetropolitan Transportation Commission
California High-Speed Rail AuthorityCalifornia High-Speed Rail Authority
May 9, 2007May 9, 2007
Bay Area/California High-Speed RailRidership and Revenue Forecasting Study
Page 2
2
Model Overview
Forecast all interregional trips within California
Forecast intraregional trips in largest urban areas
Induced travel for interregional trips
Page 3
3
Integrated Modeling Process
Peak and off-peak time periods
Highway, air, conventional and high-speed rail modes
Trip FrequencyTrip FrequencyTrip GenerationTrip Generation
Trip DistributionTrip Distribution
Mode ChoiceMode Choice
Destination ChoiceDestination Choice
Mode ChoiceMode Choice
Intraregional ModelsIntraregional Models Interregional ModelsInterregional Models
Travel TimesTravel TimesTrip AssignmentTrip Assignment
Travel TimesTravel Times
Page 4
4
Networks
Highway Air
Rail Local Transit
Page 5
5
Data for Model Validation
Travel surveys
• American Traveler Survey (ATS)
• Caltrans Household Travel Survey
• Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)
Volume data
• Air passengers
• Rail passengers
• Highway volumes
Page 6
6
Trip Frequency Model Validation
Remainder of CA
Los Angeles Region
San Francisco Region
San Diego Region
Sacramento Region
Short Model Trips by Purpose and RegionShort Model Trips by Purpose and Region
0
100
200
300
400
500
Commute Business Recreation Other
In ThousandsIn Thousands
Long Model Trips by Purpose and Region
0
50
100
150
200
250
Commute Business Recreation Other
In ThousandsIn Thousands
Page 7
7
Destination Choice Model Validation
00
55
1010
1515
2020
2525
LA LA to to
SacramentoSacramento
LA to LA to San DiegoSan Diego
LA LA to SFto SF
Sacramento Sacramento to SFto SF
Sacramento Sacramento to to
San DiegoSan Diego
San Diego San Diego to SFto SF
LA/SF LA/SF to SJVto SJV
Other Other to SJVto SJV
To/From To/From Monterey/Monterey/
Central CoastCentral Coast
To/From To/From Far NorthFar North
To/From To/From W. Sierra W. Sierra NevadaNevada
Observed
Model
Trips by Travel Market (in Percent)Trips by Travel Market (in Percent)
Page 8
8
Mode Choice Model Validation
Short Short BusinessBusiness
Short Short CommuteCommute
Short Short OtherOther
Long Long BusinessBusiness
Long Long OtherOther
ObservedObserved
Auto 99.7% 99.5% 99.9% 91.6% 91.5%
Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 7.9%
Rail 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7%
ModelModel
Auto 99.7% 99.5% 100.0% 89.8% 88.5%
Air 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 10.6%
Rail 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9%
Page 9
9
Air Assignment Validation
Air Boardings by Market (in Thousands)
00
55
1010
1515
2020
2525
3030
3535
LA to LA to SacramentoSacramento
LA to LA to San San
DiegoDiego
LA to SFLA to SF
Sacramento Sacramento to SFto SF
Sacramento to Sacramento to San DiegoSan Diego
San Diego San Diego to SFto SF
LA/SF LA/SF to SJVto SJV
Other Other
Observed
Model
Page 10
10
2030 Travel Markets for Interregional Trips
2.5 million daily trips
(0.7 million daily trips in 2000
business plan)Market
Annual Trips (in millions)
LA to Sacramento 8
LA to San Diego 134
LA to SF 20
Sacramento to SF 68
Sacramento to San Diego 2
San Diego to SF 9
LA/SF to SJV 137
Other to SJV 204
To/From Central Coast 158
To/From Far North 120
To/From W. Sierra Nevada 36
Jenny Moynihan
add colors to the legend -Maren we had previously formatted this for a February PPT - so I just brought that one in.
Page 11
11
Door to Door Travel Times – ExampleSouth San Francisco to Central LA
Travel Time Components – Door to Door
100 200 300 400 500 600
Travel Time in Minutes
Air
HSR
Auto
Access Origin to Station
Terminal Curb to Waiting Area
Wait Board Vehicle
Line-Haul In-Vehicle
Terminal Seat to Curb
Egress Station to Destination
0
Page 12
12
Level of Service and Mode Choice – ExampleSouth San Francisco to Central LA
ModeMode
Door to Door to Door Door
Times Times (minutes)(minutes)
Cost Cost (2005 $)(2005 $)
Headway Headway (minutes)(minutes)
Mode SharesMode Shares
BusinessBusiness Other Other
Auto 541 $84 n/a 15% 37%
High Speed Rail
270 $54 14 14% 37%
Air 236 $139 9 72% 26%
Page 13
13
Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 In Millions
2000 2000 Business PlanBusiness Plan
Base Base Higher Air and Higher Air and Auto Cost Auto Cost
PachecoPacheco 3737 6565 9595
AltamontAltamont 6969 9494
Percent DifferencePercent Difference +4 percent+4 percent -1 percent-1 percent
Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base
Page 14
14
Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 by Market In Millions
0
5
10
15
20
25
Total Boardingsby Market
LA toSacramento
LA toSan Diego
LA to SF
Sacramentoto SF
Sacramento toSan Diego
San Diegoto SF
LA/SFto SJV
Other to SJV
Intraregion (1)
Pacheco Pass Alternative Base
Altamont Pass Alternative Base
In Millions
Page 15
15
2030 Mode Shares by Travel Market
0 20 40 60 80 100
LA to Sacramento
LA to San Diego
LA to SF
Sacramento to SF
Sacramento to San Diego
San Diego to SF
LA/SF to SJV
Other to SJV
Auto Air Rail HSR
Page 16
16
Interregional HSR Ridership by Purpose
Business Short
8%
Recreation/OtherShort
3%
Commute Short
8%
Business/CommuteLong
32%
Recreation/OtherLong
49%
Page 17
17
Sensitivity Tests
TestTest
Change in HSR RidershipChange in HSR Ridership
Change in Change in HSR HSR
RevenuesRevenuesBusinessBusiness OtherOther
Increase HSR Fares (25 percent)
-8 percent -15 percent +2 percent
Double HSR Frequency +12 percent +22 percent +16 percent
Increase Air and Auto Times (6 percent), Increase Air and Auto Costs (50 percent)
+29 percent +94 percent +53 percent
Page 18
18
Fare Structure
Interregional fares set to 50 percent of air fare in SF to LA market
Intraregional fares set to 50 percent higher than commuter rail
25 percent increase in fares caused
• 13 percent drop in ridership
• 2 percent increase in revenues
MarketMarket Average Average FareFare
LA to Sacramento $ 55
LA to San Diego $ 20
LA to SF $ 56
Sacramento to SF $ 37
Sacramento to San Diego $ 66
San Diego to SF $ 68
LA/SF to SJV $ 38
In 2005 dollars
Page 19
19
Annual Interregional Revenues in 2030In Millions
2000 Business 2000 Business PlanPlan Base Base
Higher Air and Higher Air and Auto Cost Auto Cost
Pacheco $1,214 $2,377 $3,724
Altamont $2,454 $3,621
Percent Difference +3 percent -3 percent
Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base
In 2005 dollars
Page 20
20
Annual Intraregional Ridership and Revenue in 2030
Urban AreaUrban AreaBoardingsBoardings
(in millions)(in millions)Revenues Revenues
(in millions)(in millions)
San Francisco Bay Area
4.4 $41
Los Angeles Region 15.7 $142
San Diego Region 0.4 $4
Total 20.5 $186
A 50 percent increase in air and auto costs would increase intraregional ridership and revenues by 6 percent, or
• 21.7 million annual HSR riders and
• $197 million in revenues
In 2005 dollars
Page 21
21
Sources of HSR Ridership
Interregional trips
AirAir
16%16%
RailRail
3%3%AutoAuto
79%79%
InducedInduced
2%2%
Page 22
22
Total Statewide HSR Ridership and Revenue
Base (1)Base (1)Higher Air andHigher Air andAuto Cost (2)Auto Cost (2)
2030 Annual Ridership in Millions2030 Annual Ridership in Millions
PachecoPacheco 86 86 117 117
AltamontAltamont 90 90 116 116
Percent DifferencePercent Difference +5 percent+5 percent -1 percent-1 percent
2030 Annual Revenues in Millions2030 Annual Revenues in Millions
PachecoPacheco $2,563 $2,563 3,921 3,921
AltamontAltamont $2,640 $2,640 3,818 3,818
Percent DifferencePercent Difference +3 percent +3 percent -3 percent-3 percent
Page 23
23
Reports Available on the CHSRA Web Site
Interregional Model System Development
Level-of-Service Assumptions and Forecast Alternatives
Findings from the Second Peer Review Panel Meeting and Findings from the First Peer Review Panel Meeting
Survey Documentation
Socioeconomic Data, Transportation Supply, and Base Year Travel Patterns Data
Page 24
24
Next Steps
Generate data for environmental studies
Conduct additional alternative tests
Finalize intraregional models in Southern California
