Travel Pres En

8/2/2019 Travel Pres En

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Travel and

TourismF. X. MurrayOverview of the Travel andTourism Industry, its importance

to the global economy and thesignificance of civil aviation tothat industry.


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Travel & Tourism Data

1999 and 2010 High Lights

Global Data U. S. Data


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Travel & Tourism Data

and Supporting Reports

for the NASA Aeronautics Study

Prepared by SAIC


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Critique & Technical

Discussion of T & T Data

1993 Data

Criticisms Revisions

Recent Data System

Cautions


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Comparing 1994 & 1999

No adequate Documentation orDefinitions for 1994 Data

Terms not Comparable Estimating Techniques Different


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World Travel & Tourism Council

First Estimate of T & T Industry

Economic Data--1993 Forecasts for 1994 and 2001

Immediate Objectives

Support Free Trade in the Air

Emphasis on Air transport

Show significance of the T & TIndustry

T & T DATA HISTORY


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Criticisms of T & T Data

Industry Generated Data

Lacked Documentation &

Methodology Not Comparable with Existing

Economic Databases

Viewed by Others as Self-serving


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Recommendations ofProfessionals

Rigorous Methodology

Definitions and Documentation Links to Existing Official Economic

Data Bases

Credible Data Collection Entities


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Resulting Data System

Mostother OECD Countries NowProvide Compatible Data

UN Department of Economic &Social Affairs

Collects Data from Most Countries

Uses Methodology & Definitions

Compatible with OECD Countries


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Data for the U. S.

1995 Whitehouse ConferenceBEA to Develop Data System

Travel & Tourism SatelliteAccount Completed 1998

Methodology and DefinitionsRigorously Documented

Integrated into the U. S. Inputand Output Accounts

I-O Factors among IndustryGroups Developed


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United Nations Data

Collection

UN Department of Economic &

Social Affairs (Information Office)

and UN TourismOrganization Now Collecting Data from Most

Countries

Uses Methodology & Definitions

Compatible with OECD Countries


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Limitations of T & T SA U. S. Data Based on 1992

Business Census

Assumption--1992 relationships(Input-Output) hold until nextCensus

I-O Factors revised after 1998Business Census (Revisions DueLate 1999/Early 2000)


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World Travel & Tourism

Council 1999 Forecast Of T & T Economic

Impact Derived from 1998 Data

Projection for 2010 is Included

Global and Regional Forecasts for1999 and Projections for 2010

General Agreement onMethodology & Terms


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Limitations on NewlyReleased Forecasts &

Projections All OECD Countries Now Report

No Data from Many Smaller

Countries Regional Samples Used for

Some (Latin America, EasternEurope)

E.g., Argentina and Brazil Used toEstimate Latin America

Assumed Growth Rates to 2010


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Travel & Tourism

High Lights for 1999 Travel & Tourism Impact Direct

and Indirect upon the Global

Economy11% of GDP

200 Million Jobs

8% of Total Employment5.5 Million New Jobs per year until

2010


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U. S. Highlights

Data used in WTTC Data System

Importance of US in T & T Industry

Employment Capital Investment

Government Spending

Federal AgenciesState & Local


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Key Points from GlobalProjection For 2010 For

Travel & Tourism Real Growth 3.3% per year

Through 2010Economy GDP will be 11% of

Global GDP

Employment will be 9%

Tax Revenues at 11.7% of Total


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T & T Forecast for 2010

Investment Government Expenditures to

Support T & T Increase at a

higher rate than in T & T

Global Capital Investment

$733 B in 1999 and projected to

be $1.5 Trillion by 2010. T & T Capital Investment Grows

Faster than Global Investment


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United States Data for T & T

Up to 25% of All Direct T & TExpenditures for Airfares

Largest Single Item

T & T GDP $1,067 Billion in 1999 Japan next highest at $389 B.

T & T GDP Projected at $1.8

Trillion by 2010


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U. S. Employment &

Government Spending T & T Economy accounts for

17.5 Million U.S. jobs in 1999

(13.2%) 20.2 Million U.S. Jobs Expected

in 2010 (13.5%)

Governments spent $52.2 Billion

for T & T 1999

By 2010 Projected to reach $85Billion


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Analytical Tools:Direct Economic Factors

Economic Factors for USTransportation Direct Impact per $of Air Transport $ 1.00

Primary Ind. (mfg) = .14Other Transport = .15

Services, Misc. = .26

Value Added = .45

Primary Industries include Agri., mining, constr., & mfg.; OtherTransportation includes pipelines & own transport; Services

include finance, insurance, communications, Utilities & Govt.


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Direct & Indirect Economic

Factors Factors for US Air Transportation

Direct & Indirect Requirements:

Per $ of Air Transportation Service

Primary Ind. (mfg) = .35

Transportation = 1.17

Services = .47

Total = 1.99

The Direct Impact is .99 or approx. $1to $1: Indirect to Direct


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Travel & Tourism Factors Direct Products & Services

Required per $1 expended forTravel & Tourism in the U. S.

Air fares .25 Lodging .16

Meals, etc .14

Shopping .12

All Other .34

Total $1.00


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Cautionary Notes

Definitions for T & T EconomicMeasures are cumbersome and

difficult to master, e.g.1999 the T & T Industry GDP

is $1,328 Billion,

BUTT & T Economy GDP

is $3,549,

AND T & T Demand is$4,475 Billion


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Travel & Tourism

Industry GDP (Supply) Includes Direct Value Added

Associated with T & T Consumption

Consumer expenditures (durables,nondurables & services)

Travel and Tourism Business Sales(private & public)

Travel and Tourism governmentexpenditures

Travel and Tourism Foreign Trade(visitor exports)


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Travel & TourismEconomy GDP

Direct and IndirectValue Addedincluding

T & T Consumption T & T Capital Investment (Public

and Private)

Government Expenditures

T & T foreign Trade


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Travel and TourismDemand Includes

Personal Consumption (Durables,Non-durables, Services)

Business Travel (Corporate &Government)

Visitor Exports GovernmentExpenditures

Capital InvestmentNon-visitor Exports (World

Tourism)


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Industry Perspective of theT & T Satellite Account

Captures all economic activity relatedto persons traveling to and staying in

places outside their usualenvironment.

For purposes of Satellite Accountingthe optimal aggregated measurement

is best determined from the demandpoint of view

Industry prefers the T & T Demandmeasure (largest measure of activity)


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Gross Domestic Product forT & T

GDP of Tourism Industries (Directand Indirect GDP for Tourism

Consumption) Imports by Tourist Industries

Employment by Tourist Industries

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