European Commission - DG Environment
Jacques DelsalleJacques DelsalleUnit C5 – Energy and EnvironmentUnit C5 – Energy and Environment
TREMOVE: from policy simulations to TREMOVE: from policy simulations to support for emissions projectionssupport for emissions projections
TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
Thessaloniki, 30/10/2006Thessaloniki, 30/10/2006
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Impact Assessment of Transport Impact Assessment of Transport Policies with TREMOVEPolicies with TREMOVE
TREMOVE model: a basic tool for the Impact Assessment of TREMOVE model: a basic tool for the Impact Assessment of transport-related policy proposals at EU level.transport-related policy proposals at EU level.
Analysis of the economic and enviromental impacts of transport and environment policies, focusing on vehicle technologies / emission factors and economic instruments
1st version for Auto Oil II (1998-2000) (9 countries, road only) New version developed for CAFE and NEC (21 countries, all modes) Further development on track: all Member States + Accession / Candidates
Countries, better user interface, more flexibility) The model is / will be used for:The model is / will be used for:
Euro 5/6, Euro VI Emission standards CO2+Cars Strategy Review Truck retrofit Infrastructure charging (Eurovignette) Fuel and vehicle taxation Technical options for maritime pollution
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
A complex model…A complex model…
Source: Transport & Source: Transport & Mobility LeuvenMobility Leuven
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Stakeholder consultation & Stakeholder consultation & transparencytransparency
2001 Model review:2001 Model review: Decision to further develop Tremove 1, to cover all EU-15 MS + future MS, and all
transport modes Data sources should be preferently EU-wide. Link with SCENES for complex policy
scenarios. TREMOVE Contact groupTREMOVE Contact group
2001-2002, ad-hoc group of modellers and country experts. 2004: enlargement to CAFE-WGTSPA members: need to further calibrate based on
country data 13 versions in 3 years. 13 versions in 3 years.
v2.32b used in Euro 5/6 (march 2005) v2.40 used for ASSESS and country consultation end 2005 v2.43b used for CO2+Cars impact assessment V2.44 to be used for Euro VI
Not all model versions and baseline available on the website (only end-products Not all model versions and baseline available on the website (only end-products for consultation and contract deliverable)for consultation and contract deliverable)
Principle: complex but not a black box: all parameters and dataset are available.Principle: complex but not a black box: all parameters and dataset are available.
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Example of TREMOVE simulation Example of TREMOVE simulation for a Euro-standard scenariofor a Euro-standard scenario
Scenario:Δ Cost vehicle
Δ Emission factorsΔ fuel consumption
Δ cost for transport (purchase +
running)
Δ transport demand
Δ new cars sales
Δ split between vehicle categories (size, fuel)
Δ vehicle stock
Δ Emissions
Absolute cost
Relative lifetime costs
Emission factors
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
TREMOVE model structure TREMOVE model structure and data needsand data needs
Transport demand ModuleTransport demand ModuleTransport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of Transport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of
transport supplytransport supply
Transport demand ModuleTransport demand ModuleTransport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of Transport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of
transport supplytransport supply
Vehicle Stock ModuleVehicle Stock ModuleEstimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural Estimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural scrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demandscrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demand
Vehicle Stock ModuleVehicle Stock ModuleEstimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural Estimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural scrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demandscrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demand
Pollutant Emissions ModulePollutant Emissions ModuleCalculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases Calculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases
emissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspectiveemissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspective
Pollutant Emissions ModulePollutant Emissions ModuleCalculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases Calculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases
emissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspectiveemissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspective
Welfare ModuleWelfare ModuleCalculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of Calculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of
public funding, and environmental benefitspublic funding, and environmental benefits
Welfare ModuleWelfare ModuleCalculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of Calculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of
public funding, and environmental benefitspublic funding, and environmental benefits
Transport demand BaselineTransport demand BaselineExogeneous: from DG TREN models or national baselinesExogeneous: from DG TREN models or national baselines
Demand volumes Demand volumes and patterns, and patterns,
costscosts
Demand volumes Demand volumes and patterns, and patterns,
costscosts
Data needsData needs
vehicle stock by vehicle stock by technology, coststechnology, costsvehicle stock by vehicle stock by
technology, coststechnology, costs
Emission Emission inventoriesinventoriesEmission Emission
inventoriesinventories
Demand elasticities Demand elasticities of substitutionof substitution
Demand elasticities Demand elasticities of substitutionof substitution
Parameters for Parameters for vehicle choice and vehicle choice and
stock renewalstock renewal
Parameters for Parameters for vehicle choice and vehicle choice and
stock renewalstock renewal
Emission Factors Emission Factors (COPERT, JRC-WtW)(COPERT, JRC-WtW)
Emission Factors Emission Factors (COPERT, JRC-WtW)(COPERT, JRC-WtW)
External cost values, External cost values, revenue recycling revenue recycling
optionsoptions
External cost values, External cost values, revenue recycling revenue recycling
optionsoptions
KnowledgeKnowledgeneedsneeds
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Transport demand baseline Transport demand baseline is exogeneousis exogeneous
TREMOVE needs a consistent and detailed transport TREMOVE needs a consistent and detailed transport demand forecast as inputdemand forecast as input Evolution of transport volumes [pkm,tkm]
Per transport mode / freight category Per region (metropolitan, other urban regions, rural) Per road type Per time period (peak or off-peak)
Evolution of transport user prices [€/km] Currently European network model ‘SCENES’ is used to
produce baseline: Consistent between countries Calibrated on Transport In Figures (Eurostat)
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
SCENESSCENES
The SCENES model is a European-wide multi-modal integrated passenger and The SCENES model is a European-wide multi-modal integrated passenger and freight transport model. freight transport model.
The model provides transport demand forecasts for both 2010 and 2020, based on a set of macro-economic and trade assumptions.
A traditional four-stage model:A traditional four-stage model: Trip generation determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each
zone by trip purpose , as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other socio-economic factors
Trip distribution matches origins with destinations, often using a gravity model function, equivalent to an entropy-maximizing model.
Mode choice computes the proportion of trips between each origin and destination that use a particular transportation mode.
Route assignment allocates trips between an origin and destination by a particular mode to a route.
Features:Features: Freight demand model based on regional economic model (REM) using input-output
techniques or trade-based matrices of goods movements. The passenger demand model uses a uniform trip generation and distribution
mechanism, based on the age, employment and car ownership profiles of the population in each model zone
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Vehicle Stock modellingVehicle Stock modelling
Surviving StockSurviving Stock the stock per vehicle category surviving from the year t-1 is calculated, based on
Weibull functions where survival decreases with the age of the car. New Sales (Stock Size)New Sales (Stock Size)
Translation of the demand (vehicle-km in year t) into “desired stock”, based on the average mileage of the vehicle category (fleet and transport volume statistics of 1995 or later)
The difference between desired stock and surviving stock gives the sales of new vehicles in year t.
Vehicle Types and Technologies (Stock Composition)Vehicle Types and Technologies (Stock Composition) Amount of new vehicles (small cars) divided into vehicle types (small gasoline car,
small CNG car etc.) using a car sales logit model. The model estimates the shares of the vehicle types based on the total lifetime price of
the car, insurance, maintenance, fuel, and consumer preferences. Detailed Vehicle-kmDetailed Vehicle-km
For each vehicle type, we obtain a complete description of the forecasted age structure and thus technology structure.
The annual mileage per vehicle type evolves with the vehicle’s age. Combing this with the age structure we obtain, for each type, an estimate of the number of vkm driven by vehicles of a given age.
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Calibration issuesCalibration issues
A double consistency is required: Vehicle volume = Activity number / load factor = Vehicle stock x mileage
The model is sophisticated (bottom-up approach) and extremely data-hungry if we want accuracy in the results
Statistics on vehicle stock and lifetime parameters not updated (1995, TRENDS project ESTAT/TREN).
Better info at national level, but time consuming. Consistency with fuel consumption:
Split urban/non urban, speeds Fuel tourism and transit
Emissions: Copert IV still not implemented (in a few weeks…) Earlier introduction euro standards & retrofit not included
No established process for bilateral consultation No close co-operation so far with other energy/climate/air models
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Transport demand:Transport demand:baseyear 2000 calibrationbaseyear 2000 calibration
Billions passenger.km cars
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
TREMOVE
PRIMES
TIF 2005
TIF 2004
UBA submitted to IIASA/TML
Billions tonne.km HDT (truck >3.5tonnes)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
TREMOVE = TIF = UBA PRIMES
ktoe/tkm
-10.010.030.050.070.090.0
110.0130.0150.0
German
y
Franc
e
United
King
dom
Austri
a
Belgium
Denm
ark
Spain
Finlan
d
Greec
e
Irela
nd Italy
Luxe
mbu
rg
Nethe
rland
s
Portug
al
SwedenEU15
TREMOVE
PRIMES
ktoe/pkm
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0
German
y
Franc
e
United
King
dom
Austri
a
Belgium
Denm
ark
Spain
Finlan
d
Greec
e
Irelan
dIta
ly
Luxe
mbu
rg
Nethe
rland
s
Portug
al
SwedenEU15
TREMOVE
PRIMES
Examples for GermanyExamples for Germany Consistency across countriesConsistency across countries
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
Objectives 2006-2007Objectives 2006-2007
Short-term: Focus on vehicle stock data 1-year project to be launched in Dec 06 Use the database, TREMOVE and COPERT 4 to improve and ensure
consistency of transport emission calculations (EMEP/CORINAIR) Work in cluster with transport and energy models
TREMOVE (DG ENV / TML / LAT / IPTS) TRANS-TOOLS (DG TREN / IPTS) PRIMES (NTUA) – Transport module POLES (IPTS): currently some transport modules (e.g. Air)
Model maintenance and further improvement under a stable context JRC (IPTS+IES) EC4MACS LIFE consortium
Transform the former « Tremove Contact Group » into an expert group on transport modelling
EC / UNECE / EEA / Member States / Other models & research projects Exchange of information and common understanding on transport demand
projections, vehicle stock, emission factors, costs, etc.
European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment
MilestonesMilestones
By March 2007 (TML)By March 2007 (TML) Flexibility to introduce National or alternative baselines More friendly user interface
Later in 2007 (JRC-IPTS)Later in 2007 (JRC-IPTS) Revised source code and user interface, better coupling with COPERT.
TREMOVE then converted into a practical tool that can be used by MS TREMOVE then converted into a practical tool that can be used by MS for their transport stock and emissions projections.for their transport stock and emissions projections.
To be discussed at next TREMOVE contact group meetings (Dec 2006, Feb 2007)
Consistency across EU. Enable detailed modelling of the impact of regulations and economic
instruments on modal shift, vehicles and fuels sales. Specific request: TREMOVE currently enlarged to 10 additional Specific request: TREMOVE currently enlarged to 10 additional
countries:countries: Remaining EU-25 (Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia),
Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Turkey, by Jan 2007. Need to contrast the available information on transport demand, vehicle
stock, etc. with the detailed assumptions used for emissions inventories and projection
European Commission - DG Environment
Jacques DelsalleJacques DelsalleUnit C5 – Energy and EnvironmentUnit C5 – Energy and Environment
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!