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warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Wednesday, January 27, 2021
The global scorecard
United States + 143,745 United States + 3,734
Brazil + 61,963 Mexico + 1,743
Spain + 36,435 United Kingdom + 1,636
France + 22,143 Brazil + 1,214
United Kingdom + 20,167 South Africa + 680
Russia + 17,982 France + 614
Mexico + 17,165 Spain + 586
Colombia + 13,606 Russia + 550
Peru + 13,301 Italy + 541
Indonesia + 13,094 Peru + 499
+ 359,601 + 11,797
World + 547,501 World + 17,008
Top ten 66% Top ten 69%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
131.560 bp of population infected
As of Jan 26
New confirmed cases
by continent
2.828 bp of population fatalities
Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]
2
The US scorecard
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital Hospital use ICU use
CA NM CA CA NY RI 89% AL 92%
TX NY TX TX FL CT 81% GA 90%
AL NC FL NY NJ SC 80% CA 89%
FL TX NY FL AZ CA 80% DE 87%
PA IL IL NJ GA DC 80% OK 86%
AZ IA OH PA OH MD 79% TX 85%
TN KY PA IL AL GA 79% NC 85%
GA NV AZ MI IN MA 78% MO 83%
NY OR GA MA MD FL 78% DC 83%
MO NJ NC GA MN MO 77% RI 82%
73% 76%
70% 72%
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
+ 126
+ 101
+ 81
+ 66
+ 4,776
+ 4,748
+ 4,707
+ 209
+ 192
+ 179
+ 39
+ 9,466
+ 234
+ 231
+ 17,028
+ 409 + 26,274
+ 29
+ 21
+ 3,734
61%
-1,465
NJ
AZ
VA
PA + 4,628
+ 4,262
All states
+ 92,643
OH
TX
CA
NY
FL
GA
3,153,186 37,527
1,637,296 34,407
872,918 20,883
812,495 20,853
1,350,054 26,080
1,108,430 21,105
15,305
727,752 14,220
2,273,119
+ 133
+ 32
34,701
+ 165
-69 FL
All states
Median
KY -4 VA -87
TX
Some states not reporting
OH
TN
OK
PA
AL -94
OH -117-8
-24
NY
The ten worst US states
+ 525
-979
-54%
89,995
71,852
59,661
50,657
48,915
45,276
41,315
39,753
31,330
24,014
502,768
732,643
+ 17
+ 13
+ 219
+ 307
+ 11,064
+ 5,690
All states
+ 2,278
Top ten
KS
CT OK -141KS
-296
Top ten
+ 143,745
-4,550
64%
727,423 13,482
13,395,316 238,563
791,165
64%
25,078,884 415,557
53% 57%
38.1 median population age
769.954 bp of population infected
12.758 bp of population fatalities
AR -4
Five most improved US states
CA -9,979 CT
MI
+ 26,425
+ 11,481
+ 5,502
+ 3,683
+ 3,657-1,272
-2,602
VA
Dail
y n
ew
cases a
nd d
eath
s
Source: Covid Tracking Project, Dept. of Health and Human Services, CDC, TrendMacro calculations
https://covidtracking.com/https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-statehttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
3
Rolling out the vaccines in the US US overall
AK ME
22.3% 14.6%
11.1% 6.2%
2.3% 1.5%
WI VT NH
11.8% 14.9% 13.3%
4.6% 7.1% 6.0%
0.8% 1.7% 1.1%
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
12.6% 10.3% 11.2% 11.4% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9% 12.3% 12.7%
5.5% 4.4% 5.9% 7.6% 5.1% 4.7% 6.1% 6.4% 5.5%
1.0% 0.8% 1.3% 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
14.0% 11.0% 12.4% 13.3% 11.5% 13.4% 12.0% 12.8% 12.3% 14.5% 14.3%
6.2% 4.6% 6.3% 7.2% 5.2% 6.1% 5.4% 5.1% 5.7% 8.2% 5.5%
1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 2.1% 1.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.3%
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
13.5% 11.7% 12.6% 12.3% 10.8% 12.5% 15.5% 13.7% 13.0% 13.3%
5.2% 6.1% 6.5% 5.8% 4.3% 6.3% 9.4% 5.8% 5.3% 5.8%
1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2%
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
11.5% 12.9% 12.0% 13.1% 12.3% 11.9% 10.1% 13.8%
5.0% 8.2% 4.5% 6.5% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2% 7.3%
0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9%
OK LA MS AL GA
13.4% 13.0% 12.5% 11.6% 12.3%
7.2% 6.5% 5.6% 4.6% 5.6%
1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
HI TX FL PR
14.9% 11.5% 14.4% 13.1%
5.4% 5.6% 6.6% 4.6%
1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2%
Over last day
As of Jan 26
State
Doses distributed
as % population
One shot received
as % population
Two shots received
as % distributed
6.1% of US population one shot
1.1% of US population two shots
44.39 million doses distributed +2.98 million/day
23.54 million doses administered +0.81 million/day
19.90 million persons with one or more shot +0.65 million/day
7.2% of US population vaccinated
3.48 million persons with two or more shots +0.14 million/day
53.0% of distributed doses administered
2.73 million shots in long-term care +0.01 million/day
1.9 doses per long-term care resident
Source: CDC, TrendMacro calculations
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
4
US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://covidtracking.com/
5
US deep-dive on the demographics of age, race and health
Age distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates Cumulative
Racial distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates
(Does not foot
with national average
due to sample error)
ComorbiditiesTop-ten joint causes of Covid mortalities, cumulative For 6% of the deaths,
COVID-19 was the only
cause mentioned. For
deaths with conditions or
causes in addition to
COVID-19, on average,
there were 2.9 additional
conditions or causes per
death.
Source: Distributions CDC, Comorbidities CDC, TrendMacro calculations
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
6
Recommended reading
Steve Hilton investigates origins of COVID-19, links to
US commissioned research Fox News January 24, 2021
Fauci: Wearing two masks is better than one Tamar Lapin
New York Post January 25, 2021
China’s gift for the Biden inauguration is a
conspiracy theory about Covid-19’s US origins Jane Li
Quartz January 20, 2021
Netherlands Has Worst Riots in Four Decades Over
Covid Curbs Joost Akkermans
Bloomberg January 26, 2021
Meme of day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"
https://news.yahoo.com/steve-hilton-investigates-origins-covid-023346204.htmlhttps://news.yahoo.com/steve-hilton-investigates-origins-covid-023346204.htmlhttps://nypost.com/2021/01/25/fauci-wearing-two-masks-is-better-than-onehttps://qz.com/1959825/china-renews-its-push-on-a-conspiracy-theory-about-covid-19/https://qz.com/1959825/china-renews-its-push-on-a-conspiracy-theory-about-covid-19/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/dutch-covid-riots-add-to-political-tension-ahead-of-electionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/dutch-covid-riots-add-to-political-tension-ahead-of-electionshttps://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/category/the-week-in-pictures
7
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/
8
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/
9
“Exponential”? Our most reliable evidence of the rate of spread of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread
Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/
10
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low ◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0https://covidtracking.com/
11
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low ◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYDX4WWYX9Qg/v0https://covidtracking.com/
12
Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: IHME, Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americahttps://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americahttps://covidtracking.com/
13
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas783.95 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Jan 26
38.1 median population age
693.99 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
774.78 bp of population infected
17.60 bp of population fatalities
12.33 bp of population fatalities
11.86 bp of population fatalities
Source: Covid Tracking Project,, TrendMacro calculations
https://covidtracking.com/
14
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona
As of Jan 26
1006.56 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
42.2 median population age
798.03 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
762.32 bp of population infected
9.39 bp of population fatalities
12.04 bp of population fatalities
16.81 bp of population fatalities
Source: Covid Tracking Project,, TrendMacro calculations
https://covidtracking.com/
15
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Jan 26
28.8 median population age
161.01 bp of population infected
3.43 bp of population mortalities
0.71 bp of population infected
0.03 bp of population mortalities
37.4 median population age
Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Tracking Project,TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_serieshttps://covidtracking.com/
16
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Jan 26
10.99 bp of population fatalities
468.34 bp of population infected
6.40 bp of population fatalities
0.42 bp of population fatalities
30.14 bp of population infected
260.67 bp of population infected
41.2 median population age
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series
17
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia10.40 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of Jan 26
555.20 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
201.00 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
14.81 bp of population fatalities
4.98 bp of population fatalities
0.33 bp of population fatalities
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series
18
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Jan 26
10.70 bp of population fatalities
603.29 bp of population infected
11.98 bp of population fatalities
14.23 bp of population fatalities
411.86 bp of population infected
560.29 bp of population infected
45.5 median population age
44.9 median population age
42.2 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series
19
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
As of Jan 26
41.8 median population age
14.74 bp of population infected
104.09 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
0.26 bp of population fatalities
0.01 bp of population fatalities
40.9 median population age
549.58 bp of population infected
10.87 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series
20
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
33.5 median population age
426.41 bp of population infected
10.39 bp of population fatalities
As of Jan 26
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
79.74 bp of population infected
25.72 bp of population infected
1.15 bp of population fatalities
0.48 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series
21
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)26.79 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
0.66 bp of population fatalities
As of Jan 26
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
694.70 bp of population infected
158.31 bp of population infected
5.06 bp of population fatalities
6.57 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series