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Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Sunday, May 2, 2021
The global scorecard
India + 392,488 India + 3,689
Brazil + 66,964 Brazil + 2,656
United States + 45,303 United States + 490
Turkey + 28,817 Poland + 422
France + 25,670 Russia + 385
Germany + 18,535 Turkey + 373
Colombia + 18,022 Ukraine + 358
Iran + 17,080 Iran + 332
Argentina + 16,502 Colombia + 272
Italy + 12,964 Mexico + 261
+ 642,345 + 9,238
World + 796,679 World + 12,345
Top ten 81% Top ten 75%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
200.409 bp of population infected
As of May 1
New confirmed cases
by continent
4.20 bp of population fatalities
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
2
The US scorecard
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital Hospital use ICU use
MI GA CA CA TX RI 91% MI 32%
OH LA TX NY CA MA 84% MD 22%
FL NV FL TX FL PA 82% ME 19%
TX CA NY FL NY CT 82% RI 18%
NY IL IL PA GA MO 82% MN 18%
IL TN PA NJ PA MD 82% CO 17%
NJ KY GA IL OH MI 81% PA 16%
PA WV OH GA IL GA 80% ID 15%
GA AR NJ OH KY MN 79% WA 14%
MD OH NC MI MI FL 78% WV 14%
70% 67%
72% 10%
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most pop immunuity growth
United States
CT -13
Five most improved US states
NC -2,231 CA
CT
+110 bp
+98 bp
+87 bp
+85 bp
+84 bp-786
-1,789
TN
38.1 median population age
994.485 bp of population infected
17.706 bp of population fatalities
969,752 18,893
17,567,420 334,214
2,222,932
56%
32,392,274 576,722
54% 58%
+ 562
Top ten
TX
PA IN -27NC
-44
Top ten
+ 45,303
-1,811
60%
The ten worst US states
+ 322
+7
4600%
238,313
230,813
168,332
128,946
101,032
84,578
81,827
76,129
72,134
65,918
1,248,022
1,074,019
+ 17
+ 12
+ 51
+ 96
+ 3,708
+ 2,604
All states
52,309
+ 22
-618 OR
All states
Median
VA -12 FL -19
SD
Some states not reporting
UT
FL
CA
CT
NM -21
WA -25-17
-20
IA
FL
NY
MI
IL
PA
3,743,681 61,866
2,238,937 50,274
1,155,140 25,588
1,101,487 24,330
2,052,022 35,239
1,337,760 26,219
20,212
998,812 19,284
2,895,810
+ 20
+ 22TX
CO
MN
OH + 1,707
+ 1,669
All states
+ 27,216
WA
+ 92
+ 58
+ 33
+ 26
+ 1,882
+ 1,838
+ 1,712
+ 39
+ 34
+ 27
+ 25
+ 2,805
+ 78
+ 55
+ 3,872
+ 140 + 5,419
+ 19
+ 18
+ 490
115%
-958
Da
ily n
ew
ca
se
s a
nd
de
ath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, Dept. of Health and Human Services, CDC, TrendMacro calculations
3
Rolling out the vaccines in the US and the world
US overall
AK ME
56.2% 55.7%
42.1% 55.1%
35.8% 40.1%
WI VT NH
47.8% 59.2% 52.7%
45.9% 55.7% 60.5%
35.9% 37.9% 29.9%
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
51.1% 42.7% 49.7% 44.6% 47.0% 50.9% 50.4% 51.5% 57.0%
46.8% 34.1% 41.0% 39.4% 47.4% 46.9% 42.9% 48.0% 56.7%
32.7% 27.4% 32.5% 33.0% 34.9% 30.8% 32.5% 35.3% 37.1%
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
49.1% 43.7% 44.5% 54.2% 47.4% 43.7% 47.9% 53.9% 52.2% 58.1% 57.1%
44.3% 39.9% 34.1% 45.0% 44.3% 36.4% 40.6% 50.1% 52.0% 55.2% 53.0%
30.5% 28.4% 28.0% 37.8% 34.5% 27.3% 32.8% 32.7% 36.6% 39.3% 37.2%
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
53.2% 42.1% 49.6% 48.8% 45.9% 47.1% 49.1% 50.9% 53.7% 53.2%
49.2% 39.8% 46.8% 43.1% 37.9% 41.3% 35.9% 47.5% 48.9% 47.1%
31.1% 24.4% 33.0% 32.4% 27.7% 32.2% 30.7% 33.6% 34.7% 33.2%
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
48.3% 52.1% 49.9% 46.5% 43.2% 49.9% 47.0% 64.5%
41.0% 51.2% 42.7% 35.7% 34.5% 39.4% 36.7% 48.4%
29.4% 37.9% 32.0% 25.8% 24.9% 29.6% 27.8% 30.3%
OK LA MS AL GA
50.2% 42.0% 44.0% 44.7% 47.1%
38.7% 32.2% 31.1% 32.6% 35.2%
29.9% 26.6% 23.8% 23.7% 24.9%
HI TX FL PR
54.8% 46.8% 51.9% 52.7%
53.2% 38.5% 42.3% 38.1%
36.1% 27.5% 29.8% 24.9%As of May 1
324.37 million doses distributed +3.74 million/day
251.72 million doses administered +3.35 million/day
150.43 million persons partially immunized +1.36 million/day
106.86 million persons fully immunized +2.04 million/day
77.6% of distributed doses administered
State
as % population
45.0% of US pop partial 32.0% full immunity
Immunities distributed
as % population**
At least partial immunity
as % population
Full immunity
Over last day
Source: CDC, CDC, Our World in Data, TrendMacro calculations
4
US deep-dive National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
Source: Johns Hopkins, Covid Act Now, TrendMacro calculations
5
US deep-dive on the demographics of age, race and health
Age distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates Cumulative
Racial distribution of US cases, fatalities and case-fatality rates
(Does not foot
with national average
due to sample error)
ComorbiditiesTop-ten joint causes of Covid mortalities, cumulative For over 5% of these
deaths, COVID-19 was the
only cause mentioned on
the death certificate. For
deaths with conditions or
causes in addition to COVID-
19, on average, there were
4.0 additional conditions or
causes per death.
Source: Distributions CDC, Comorbidities CDC, TrendMacro calculations
6
Recommended reading
SpaceX Makes First Nighttime Splash Down With
Astronauts Since 1968 Kenneth Chang
New York Times May 2, 2021
Was COVID-19 the only culprit behind the extraordinary
increase in deaths last year? Peter Attia
Peter Attia MD May 2, 2021
How Will Camps Keep Kids Safe This Summer? Melinda Wenner Moyer
New York Times April 29, 2021
Meme of the day
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"
7
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
8
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: Johns Hopkins,TrendMacro calculations
9
“Exponential”? Our most reliable evidence of the rate of spread of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
10
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
11
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Act Now, TrendMacro calculations
12
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas998.70 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of May 1
38.1 median population age
1054.83 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
990.65 bp of population infected
26.86 bp of population fatalities
17.12 bp of population fatalities
17.32 bp of population fatalities
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
13
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona
As of May 1
1186.43 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
42.2 median population age
947.47 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
1042.45 bp of population infected
15.71 bp of population fatalities
16.37 bp of population fatalities
23.80 bp of population fatalities
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
14
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Apr 30
28.8 median population age
244.07 bp of population infected
5.12 bp of population mortalities
0.73 bp of population infected
0.03 bp of population mortalities
37.4 median population age
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
15
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Apr 30
15.62 bp of population fatalities
847.28 bp of population infected
10.01 bp of population fatalities
0.83 bp of population fatalities
47.99 bp of population infected
410.19 bp of population infected
41.2 median population age
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
16
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia10.78 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of May 1
665.32 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
325.88 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
19.17 bp of population fatalities
6.40 bp of population fatalities
0.33 bp of population fatalities
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
17
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of May 1
12.44 bp of population fatalities
772.39 bp of population infected
16.66 bp of population fatalities
20.05 bp of population fatalities
668.60 bp of population infected
750.81 bp of population infected
45.5 median population age
44.9 median population age
42.2 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
18
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
40.9 median population age
961.87 bp of population infected
13.88 bp of population fatalities
As of May 1
41.8 median population age
23.77 bp of population infected
107.26 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
0.35 bp of population fatalities
0.01 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
19
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
As of May 1
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
145.89 bp of population infected
32.94 bp of population infected
1.61 bp of population fatalities
0.75 bp of population fatalities
33.5 median population age
702.91 bp of population infected
19.40 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
20
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)35.08 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
0.92 bp of population fatalities
As of May 1
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
943.81 bp of population infected
287.46 bp of population infected
7.16 bp of population fatalities
8.24 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations
21
Impact in Africa, continued
South Africa As of May 1
27.6 median population age
943.81 bp of population infected
7.16 bp of population fatalities
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: Johns Hopkins, TrendMacro calculations