TRENDS AFFECTING PUBLIC TRANSIT'S EFFECTIVENESSA Review and Proposed Actions

A study prepared for the American Public Transportation Association

by

Brendon Hemily, Ph.D.

November 2004

DisclaimerThis study attempts to distill and synthesize a broad range of trends affecting public transit in the metropolitan community setting, and proposes various actions to address future challenges. The study was underwritten by the American Public Transportation Association, but all views expressed are those of the author.

AcknowledgementsI would like to acknowledge and thank my colleagues, Rollie King, Bill Lyons, and Anthony Palmere, for their invaluable assistance and advice during this project.

About the Author

Dr. Brendon Hemily (brendon.hemily@sympatico.ca) is an independent consultant with over 20 years of experience working with the public transportation industry to understand the complex challenges facing transit systems, to identify best practices, and to articulate practical actions and research needs to help address these challenges. He has focused in particular on encouraging innovation in transit management and planning, through the implementation of innovative management and service concepts, as well as the application of advanced technology to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of transit systems.

Prior to 2000, Dr. Hemily worked for 15 years at the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA), serving as CUTAs Manager of Research and Technical Services, where he was responsible for the Canadian national statistical programs and all technical and research activities provided by CUTA to the Canadian transit industry, including the national cooperative Strategic Transit Research Program (STRP). Prior to that, Dr. Hemily was Program Director at the Institute for Urban Transportation at Indiana University, working with Dr. George Smerk, where he conducted research on the use of strategic planning in the transit industry and managed IUTs training activities. Dr. Hemily has made over 80 professional presentations at APTA, TRB, CUTA, and UITP meetings, and has prepared 20 reports and published papers. Dr. Hemily has received a Ph.D. in Transportation and a MS.C.E. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a B.A. in Economics from Columbia College.

mailto:brendon.hemily@sympatico.ca

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Foreword

For many of us, transit represents the lifeblood of cities, fulfilling an essential and multi-functional role to ensure the livability and sustainability of urban communities. However, transit is facing numerous complex challenges in the medium to longer term, stemming from myriad demographic and socio-economic trends, changes in land-use and mobility patterns, societal changes and concerns, emerging professional practices, etc. There are many experts that focus on exploring and explaining trends and their implications from a general urban planning or transportation perspective, but few look at them from the specific point of view of the transit manager, staff, or board member.

A very innovative General Manager I interviewed early in my career said: the only time he could devote to strategic planning of the transit system was when he was taking his shower. This paper is an attempt to take a strategic view of a wide range of trends, distill the challenges they create for transit systems and the industry as a whole, and identify some questions and potential actions for consideration. The Appendices include a summary of concepts and listing of a wide range of accessible resources on various specific topics for those who want more information.

Although the paper covers terrain that will be familiar to some, the result will hopefully clarify the challenges, and encourage renewed thinking on the development and pursuit of a new vision of public transportation in the community setting. At the very least, I hope it will stimulate new thoughts and directions for those transit managers who only have the time to do their strategic planning in the shower.

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Table of Contents

Trends Affecting Public Transits EffectivenessA Review and Proposed Actions

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ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................... VII

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................... VII

1. TRANSIT AND COMMUNITIES ON THE MOVE ........................................................................ 1

1.1. Achievements of Transit ....................................................................................................... 11.1.1. Impressive Recent Ridership Gains ............................................................................................. 11.1.2. Mobility Option for All ............................................................................................................... 11.1.3. Access to Jobs............................................................................................................................. 2

1.2. Renaissance of Cities............................................................................................................. 21.2.1. Public and private investment...................................................................................................... 21.2.2. Increased attractiveness as choice of residence and activity.......................................................... 2

1.3. New Approaches to Community....................................................................................... 3

1.4. Linking Transit and Community ......................................................................................... 51.4.1. Joint development ....................................................................................................................... 51.4.2. Transit-Oriented Development and location-efficient initiatives ................................................... 51.4.3. Transportation for Livable Communities Initiatives ..................................................................... 71.4.4. Transportation and Community and System Preservation (TCSP) Pilot Program .......................... 8

2. DESPITE ACHIEVEMENTS, LONG-TERM TRENDS POSE CHALLENGES............................ 9

2.1. Trend: Growing Sprawl ..................................................................................................... 102.1.1. Suburbs are capturing most population growth and job growth................................................... 102.1.2. Edge Cities ............................................................................................................................... 112.1.3. Box Stores vs. Older Malls........................................................................................................ 11

2.2. Trend: Growing Auto Use .................................................................................................. 122.2.1. Growth in auto fleet and use: more cars than licensed drivers..................................................... 122.2.2. Auto market share of travel continues to increase....................................................................... 132.2.3. Growth of commuting distance, and in particular in long distance commuting............................ 13

2.3. Trend: Growing Congestion but little sign of policy paradigm shift................................. 13

2.4. Trend: Changing Travel Patterns ...................................................................................... 142.4.1. Decrease in traditional work trips as a proportion of total travel ................................................. 142.4.2. Trip Chaining: Work+Shopping+Daycare+School ..................................................................... 14

2.5. Concern: Environmental, Energy, Economic, Safety Implications of Increasing Auto Dependence ......................................................................................................................... 15

2.6. Concern: Health.................................................................................................................. 182.6.1. Respiratory problems ................................................................................................................ 182.6.2. Obesity caused by lifestyle leading to increasing cardio-vascular problems ................................ 18

2.7. Concern: Mobility of Aging Population ............................................................................. 192.7.1. Increasing Senior Population..................................................................................................... 192.7.2. Ratio of working population to non- working population will continue to fall dramatically......... 192.7.3. Personal crisis caused by loss of license..................................................................................... 192.7.4. Aging in place ....................................................................................................................... 202.7.5. Dramatic increase needed in mobility services to be provided .................................................... 20

2.8. Concern: Social Integration ............................................................................................... 21

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2.8.1. Physically Disadvantaged.......................................................................................................... 212.8.2. Economically Disadvantaged..................................................................................................... 212.8.3. Immigrants..............