28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
TRENDS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIESFOR AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of Bologna
New Technologies and Services for agricultural Machinery:Challenges and Limits
10-11 November 2018Bologna, Italy
Benno Pichlmaier – [email protected]
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
HISTORYAGRICULTURAL REVOLUTIONS
driverlayer.com © Hulton-Deutsch Collection/CORBIS
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTIONS1. „Neolithic“ Agricultural Revolution: 10.000 BCDomestication of plants and animals.
2. „British“ Agricultural Revolution: 17th to 19th CenturyCrop Rotation, national free Markets, Infrastructure, Mechanisation.
3. „Green“ Agricultural Revolution: 1950s to 1960sBreeding (High yield Varieties), chemical Fertilizers, Irrigation.
4. „Digital “ Agricultural Revolution: 2010s to …Automation, Data driven Optimization, Connected Systems.
There is no common Definition on Agricultural Revolutionsand thus there are different Perspectives and Opinions to it.
?
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
Homo Sapiens300.000 Years ago
A BIT OF TIMELINE PERSPECTIVE…
Earth5 Mrd Years ago Today
2. Ag Revolution
3. Ag Revolution
4. Ag Revolution ?
1. Agricultural Revolution12.000 Years ago
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
SITUATIONPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
Source: legendary-fish.com
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
5 MAJOR INPUT FACTORS
BREEDING
MECHANSATIONIRRIGATION
FERTILIZING
PLANTPROTECTION
Source: Renius K.T., Farm machinery to feed the world. Open Meeting of Club of Bologna, September 21st, 2015.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
MECHANISATIONLARGER EQUIPMENT DELIVERS MORE PRODUCTIVITY AT LOWER COST
40
€/ha
20
10
0 labour cost
capital cost
fuel cost
repair cost
2.0 m67 kW
2,5 m83 kW
3,0 m102 kW
4,5 m120 kW
7,0 m200 kW
10 m235 kW
Source (modified): De Witte Th. et al, New plant production systems with autonomous agricultural machinery. Final project report. Internet www.orgprints.org/32437/ October 2018.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
CHALLENGESSUSTAINABLE GROWTH
Source: bloomberg.com
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
Sour
ce: F
AO, h
ttps
://w
ww
.gsb
.sta
nfor
d.ed
u/in
sight
s/fu
ture
-food
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
CHEATING MALTHUS
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABLE PRODUCTIVITY IS THE FUNDMENTAL OBJECTIVE
Source: Charles Merfield, The Future of Farming, ASABE Resource Magazin, 2012
The Average Life of a Speciesis 1.000.000 years. We need to plan for another 800.000 years.
Taking one Step at a Timethese steps could be one millennium: 1000 years.
Our current Farming Practicesare by no means sustainable to this scale.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
LIMITSWAY TO GO?
Source: districtspeed.com
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
Sources: UN, VDMA, KBA, own calculations12345678
Mrd, t10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
World Population
153045607590105120kW150
Average Engine Power
Average Machine Weight
Large Tractor in 2030: 800 Horsepower and 33 tons ?Combine Harvester in 2030 900 Horsepower and 50 tons ?
MACHINERY GROWTH
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
ONE CONSEQUENCE…PERFORMANCE INCREASE BY EQUIPMENT GROWTH IS LIMITED
dpi.nsw.gov.aumotherearthnews.com
Crop health, yield and water management issues are caused by soil compaction.Not only contact pressure but as well footprint size have a relevant impact.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
PARADIGM SHIFTADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
THE NEXT FOSBURY FLOP„CREATE THE FUTURE, FORGET THE PAST, MANAGE THE PRESENT“ VIJAY GOVINDARAJAN
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
PARADIGM SHIFT
Machinery Agronomy
Magnitude Multitude
Complexity Symplicity
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
ENABLING TECHNOLOGIESADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
CONNECTIVITY & DIGITALIZATION
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
CONNECTIVITY & DIGITALIZATIONThreats to Precision Agriculture “Precision agriculture employs a variety of embedded and connected technologies that rely on remote sensing, global positioning systems, and communication systems to generate big data, data analytics, and machine learning. A consequence of this rapidly advancing digital revolution is the increased exposure to cyber and other vulnerabilities to the agricultural sector.”
https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2018%20AEP_Threats_to_Precision_Agriculture.pdf
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
AUTOMATION & AUTONOMY
1 TRANSPARENCYInformation Visualization
Information will be displayed to the operator.Operator needs to decide, manually adjust settings.
4 AUTONOMYIntegrated Intelligence X System can perform safely without operator.
Remote control room and strategic guidance possible.
2 ASSISTANCEOptimization Advice
Advice will be provided to the operator.Operator needs to approve, manually adjust settings.
3 AUTOMATIONSmart self Adjustment
Operator has safety responsibility.Decisions are provided, settings automatically adjusted.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
AUTOMATION & AUTONOMYEQUIPMENT EVOLUTION
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
ELECTRIFICATION & FUTURE FUELSWHAT OPTIONS DO WE HAVE?
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
ELECTRIFICATION & FUTURE FUELSBATTERY ELECTRIC TRACTOR
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
ELECTRIFICATION & FUTURE FUELSRENEWABLE DIESEL
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
40
€/ha
20
10
0
capital cost
fuel cost
repair cost
2.0 m67 kW
2,5 m83 kW
3,0 m102 kW
4,5 m120 kW
7,0 m200 kW
10 m235 kW
ENABLING CHANGEAUTOMATE TASKS, CONNECT MACHINES, ELECTRIFY DRIVELINES
Source (modified): De Witte Th. et al, New plant production systems with autonomous agricultural machinery. Final project report. Internet www.orgprints.org/32437/ October 2018.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
OUTLOOKOPPORTUNTIES FOR THE FUTURE
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT AG
Quelle: http://agrown.net
90%
LessWater
70%
LessFertilizer
X 10Yield per
Acre
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
ROBOT SWARMS
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
MACHINE LEARNING
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
SUMMARYKEY MESSAGES
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
KEY MESSAGES• Sustainable Productivity is the fundamental Objective for Farming.
Support fresh Thinking for a truly cirular agricultural Economy.
• Further Growth of Machinery will be limited. Evaluate Paradigm Shifts.Machinery Agronomy, Magnitude Multitude, Complexity Simplicity.
• Technology Trends provide Answers and we need to manage Risks. Connectivity & Digitalization
Connected small machines for productivity growth. Food Production dependend on Network.
Automation & AutonomySmaller Machines and Plant Level Precision. Labor Cost Focus is not enough.
Electrification & Futur FuelsSimplified, precise Drives, Emission Reduction. Challenges: Raw Materials, Cost, Sustainability.
• There are looming Opportunities and Disruptions.Controlled Environment Agriculture, Robots and Swarms, Artificial Intelligence.
28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018
THANK YOU.QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME
