Trends – and Realities – for Oregon Students

Presentation to the Higher Education Coordinating CommissionDecember 10, 2015

Dr. Chris Maples, President, Oregon Institute of Technology

• Getting into college less challenging than getting through and out with a degree [access versus completion]

• Part-time students working multiple part-/full-time jobs

• Completing bachelor’s in 4 years no longer the norm

• High school enrollment flattening nationally (Oregon exception?)

• Student diversity increasing, but targeted support not keeping up with incoming enrollment

• Federal dollars -- and sometimes private dollars -- exceed state dollars

• Rural students remain challenged: completion rates still lower, but improving with targeted programs in recent years (Eastern Promise; rural focus on GEAR UP; campus-based programs)

National Trends … also Reflected in Oregon

Oregon Trends in Higher Education

The gap caused by simultaneous enrollment growth and funding cuts damaged campus support systems and accelerated tuition growth

Students’ Tuition Growth Fatigue Will Wear Oregon Down

Rank 18th

Nationally in Tuition Growth (‘08-15)

University 2015 Tuition & Fees*

EOU $ 7,440

OIT $ 8,445

OSU $ 9,122

PSU $ 7,794

SOU $ 7,701

UO $ 9,918

WOU $ 9,105

*Rates from College Tuition Compare website; campus calculations may be slightly different.

Higher Ed Funding in Oregon: Empathy or Apathy?And yet we’re still among most efficient in nation in cost per degree (4-year public):

• Oregon: $58,356 per degree• US Avg: $66,436 per degree

• 2008–2015 Tuition increase—$2,141 (inflation adjusted)

• 2008–2015 State decrease—$2,142 (inflation adjusted)

Sources: 3-year average for 2011, 2012, 2013, NCES Data; 7-year trends Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Percentage of First-Time Students at Public Four-Year Degree-Granting Institutions Who Were State Residents, Fall 2002 and Fall 2012

SOURCE: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2015, Figure 28

Non-resident Tuition Pays for Oregon Students: Stop Gap or Permanent?

Debt Trending Up, but Promising Declines in Defaults

Student Loan Debt and Default Rates for Oregon’s Public UniversitiesInstitution Average Debt

2014*Average Debt

2004†Percentage

w/Debt 2014*Percentage

w/Debt 2004*Default Rate

FY2012** Default Rate

FY2010**

STATE RANK††

EOU N/A $15,447 N/A 67% 8.0% 11.2%

OIT $29,685 $21,630 72% 75% 3.0% 5.3%

OSU $21,955 $16,952 58% 62% 3.9% 6.1%

PSU $28,410 $18,085 62% 70% 5.1% 7.6%

SOU $30,936 $21,334 88% 72% 6.4% 9.8%

UO $24,508 $18,029 50% 60% 4.6% 5.7%

WOU $28,331 $19,422 68% 51% 7.1% 7.0%

STATE AVG $26,106 $18,152 62% 64% -- --20th in avg. debt in US

Sources: *Project on Student Loan Debt, Pew, w/State Avg including Private 4-year Non-Profit institutions (privates’ averages very similar to publics), from campus self-reported data from Peterson’s; **U.S. Dept. of Education; †OUS 2006 Fact Book, Class of 2004-05; † †Rank among all 50 states

State of Oregon 2003-04 Total (Rank in U.S.)

2013-14 Total (Rank in U.S.)

10-year increase

Total Grant Aid $21.8 million (34th rank) 55.4 million (30th rank) +154%

Need-Based Aid p/Undergraduate Enrollment

$166. p/undergraduate

(31st rank)

$327. p/undergraduate

(21st rank)

+ 97%

Total State Grant Expenditures as % of State Fiscal Support for Higher Ed

3.7%

36th rank

8.8%

27th rank

+138%

Source: National Association of State Student Grant Programs, 2003-04 and 2013-14 Reports

Slow but Steady Growth in Aid Showing Returns…

… in lower percentage with debt, improving retention rates

• Continue increasing funding for high-return student support services (immediate higher returns, e.g., more graduates▫ Lesson Learned: It doesn’t matter how cheap we make

the price, if students can’t persist, it’s too expensive

• Keep up steady investments in OOG and campus aid, Lesson Learned: investments really matter: slowing debt growth, decreasing default rates, and increasing retention rates (which translate into degrees)

Leveraging What Works

• Deep cuts make deep scars that take decades to heal (when or if funding returns) ▫ Lesson Learned: Retention rates, access and graduation rates for Oregonians,

equity, and many other factors decrease and fail when starved

▫ “Muscle” – the very infrastructure that supports students – is hard to bring back without consistent infusion of investments

• Pathways affect costs, aid, borrowing▫ Lesson Learned: Students can burn up all or most of Pell, and take on debt getting

2-year degree (for living expenses, not just tuition), which can affect 4-year degree completion (fed aid caps)

• Measure the right stuff, not your grandfather’s stats▫ Lesson Learned: Most national and state tracking leaves out anyone who is not a

traditional full-time, first time freshman. We have so many success stories that don’t reach the outcomes screen

Stability vs Boom-Bust-Bust-Bust is a Must