Trends inin DHS Forecast Programs

Prepared by Minnesota Department of Human Services

Office of Management and BudgetApril 2008

What is a forecast program?

• A program for which the state has a legal obligation to provide a benefit or service to an eligible person.

• Estimates of these current law obligations are included in the state’s forecast projections and reflected in fund balance statements.

• Through the budget process, appropriations are adjusted to ensure that adequate resources are available to pay for “forecast” programs.

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast and Department of Finance February 2008 Fund Balance Analysis

DHS’ General Fund-financed Forecast Programs in FY 2008-09

($ reflect state share and are in millions)  FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2008-09

Health Care Programs  

Long Term Care Facilities $505 $511 $1,016

Long Term Care Waivers $927 $1,049 $1,976

Elderly and Disabled Basic Care $993 $1,107 $2,100

Families with Children Basic Care $753 $846 $1,599

General Assistance Medical Care $258 $287 $545

Chemical Dependency Entitlement $89 $102 $191

Economic Assistance and Housing Programs  

Minnesota Family Investment Program Cash/Food $87 $74 $161

MFIP/TY Child Care Assistance $49 $61 $110

General Assistance $40 $44 $84

Group Residential Housing $84 $97 $181

Minnesota Supplemental Aid $31 $31 $62

Total, General Fund-financed forecast programs $3,816 $4,209 $8,025

Total, DHS General Fund Budget $4,622 $4,993 $9,615

Percent of DHS GF Budget Composed of Forecast Programs 82.57% 84.30% 83.47%

Long Term Care: Chronic health care services, long-term care in residential

settings, at-home care and social services for the elderly and people with disabilities.

Data Source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Long Term Care: FY 2008-09 vs. FY 2010-11($ in millions; state share only)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$ in M

illions

FY 2008-09

FY 2010-FY 11

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Long Term Care Average Monthly Recipients

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Facilities

Waivers & Home Care

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Long Term Care Waiver Monthly Average Recipients

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

Wai

ver R

ecip

ient

s

DevelopmentalDisabilitiesElderly

CADI

CAC

TBI

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Average Monthly Costs in Long Term Care Facilities and Waivers & Home Care

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

Ave

rage

Mon

thly

Cos

t

Facilities

Waivers & Home Care

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Long Term Care Waiver Monthly Cost

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Mon

thly

Cos

t

DevelopmentalDisabilitiesElderly

CADI

CAC

TBI

Consolidated Chemical Dependency Treatment Fund Placement Costs

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000

Cos

t Pe

r A

nnu

al P

lac

emen

t

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Data Source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Basic Health Care: Primary and acute care health services for low-income

adults, families with children, elderly and people with disabilities.

Basic Health Care Costs FY 2008-09 vs. FY 2010-11($ in Millions; State Share Only)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

MA Families MA Elderly and

Disabled

GAMC MinnesotaCare

$ in M

illions

FY 2008-09

FY 2010-11

Data source: DHS February 2008 forecast

Basic Health Care Average Monthly Enrollment

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Ave

rage

Mon

thly

Elig

ible

s

MA Families

MA Elderly andDisabledGAMC

MinnesotaCare

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Basic Health Care Programs Average Monthly Payments

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Ave

rage

Mon

thly

Pay

men

ts

MA Families

MA Elderly andDisabledGAMC

MNCare

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Children and Family Services Forecast Programs FY 2008-09 vs. FY 2010-11 (all funds; $ in millions)

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

MFIP Cash/Food MFIP/TY Child

Care

General

Assistance

Group

Residential

Housing

Minnesota

Supplemental

Aid

Dollar

s in

Millions

FY 2008-09

FY 2010-11

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Minnesota Family Investment Program Cash/Food and MFIP/Transition Year Child Care

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Aver

age

Mon

thly

Cas

es

MFIP

CCAP

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

Minnesota Family Investment Program and MFIP/Transition Year Child Care

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

Pay

men

t

MFIPChild Care

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

General Assistance, Minnesota Supplemental Aid and

Group Residential Housing Monthly Average

Enrollment

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Mon

thly

Ave

rage

Rec

ipie

nts

MSA

GRH

GA

Data source: DHS February 2008 Forecast

General Assistance, Minnesota Supplemental Aid and Group Residential Housing Monthly Average Payment

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Month

ly A

vera

ge P

aym

ent

GA

MSA

GRH