Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Cees de HaanCees de Haan

ConsultantConsultant

World BankWorld Bank

Where are the livestock - in what systems, what genetic background and what do they eat?

With some implications

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Overview of presentation

Production and consumption trends

The Livestock Revolution

Demand and supply drivers

Including feed and genetics

Systems and location

Implications for the three public goods

Equity, environment and health

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Production and consumption trends

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Trends

World Meat Production and Trade

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009

Beef Pigmeat Poultry Ovine

0

5

10

15

20

90 95 2000 2004 2005 2008 2009

Millio

n ton

nes

Beef Pork Poultry Meat Ovine

Source FAOSTAT

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Consumption levels

0

50

100

150

200

Devel

oped

Devel

opin

gAsi

aSSA

Kg/caputa

Milk Meat

Source FAOSTAT

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

0.57

1.78

1.09

3.07

2.07

2.65

2.48

2.73.85

0 2 4 6 8 10

Wheat

Coarse grains (feed)

Rice

Vegetable Oils

Poultry

Pigmeat

Beef

Milk

% change per annum

2008-2017 1998-2007

Trends Global food consumption growth

Source OECD-FAO 2008

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Drivers

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Demand drivers Population Growth

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1970 2000 2030 2050

Developing

Developed

Source: UN 2003

millions

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Demand driversUrbanization

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

number of persons

Source: UN 2003

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Demand drivers Higher income, higher meat consumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Per capita income ($ PPP)

Per

capita m

eat consum

ption (kgs)

Source Delgado et al (1999)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Demand driversIncome Growth

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

SS Africa NENA LAC S Asia E Asia

1990-2000

2000-30

2030-50

Per capita GDP growth rates at market prices

Source: WB 2005

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Supply Drivers: Livestock Technology

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Pasture Crop land for feed production

Meat production Milk production

index; 1961=100

Source: LLS (2006)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Supply driversGenetics

Genetics export 2005 (m.US$)

550

85170

Bovine semen Live Bovine Live Pig

Genetic flows (%)

17

33

60

South to North North to North

North to South South to South

Source Collin et al (2008)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Supply driversNarrowing genetic base

Holstein-Friesian now in 128 countries, Large White pigs in 117.

Of the 7544 local breeds 1491 are at risk. Highest share in Europe and Americas.

Policies often promote exotic breeds

Subsidized or free AI and subsidized feed;

Advice and extension etc.

Source: FAO (2007)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Supply Drivers Grain prices and regional use

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002

Maize, US, US$ per bushel, deflated

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Developed EAP LAC SA SSAm.tons

1980 2005

Source: LLS (2006) and FAOSTAT

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Supply driversFeed categories consumption

0 100 200 300 400 500

Cereal

Brans

Pulses

Oilcrops

Oilcakes

Roots and tubers

Fishmeal

Develop'd

Developing

Source FAOSTAT

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Where are they?

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Where are they?Estimated distribution of livestock production systems

Source: LLS (2006)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

TrendsRegional meat production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2015 2030 2050

Developing Developed

Million metric tons

Source: LLS (2006)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Where are they?Production systems

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

M. ton

RedMeat

Pork Poultrymeat

Eggs Milk

Grazing Mixed Landless

Source: LLS (2006)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Where are they? Geographical shift over time

Four movements

Dispersed w/access to local markets

Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure)

Close to feed resources (developed transport infrastructure)

In areas characterized by low human population density (environmental regulations)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Where are they?Location of industrial pig sector in southern Viet Nam

Source: LLS (2006)

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Hensbirds/year/mun.

Soy beantons/year/mun.

Humanspersons/year/mun.

Swineheads/year/

mun.

Where are they?South Brazil - Geographical shifts 1992 - 2001 period

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Where are they?Enterprise form

Livestock is important for the poor

More than 950 million have livestock at least as a part of their livelihood, be it for income, food security, traction and fertilizer

Smallholders dominate in most developing countries

Indonesia: Only 3 percent poultry meat from large farms

India: 5.5 percent of national workforce in dairy sector

But larger commercial enterprises are substituting in middle income countries.

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Some Implications for global public goods

Environment

Social equity

Public Health

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Environmental effects

Negative:

Use one third of arable land, contributed to 20 percent rangeland degradation,

18 percent of anthropogenic GHG emission

15 percent of global agriculture water evapo-transpiration

Bio-diversity threat to 306 of the 825 terrestrial eco-regions and loss of domestic animal genetic resources

Positive

Potential for carbon sequestration

Energy savings

¼ cultivated w/ animal traction

Fertilizer savings

Could supply 50 percent of nutrients

GHG emission per kg product declining?

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

The equity implications

Smallholders are not benefitting from Livestock Revolution

China: 70 million poultry farm exits between 1996 and 2005

Brazil: 30 percent decline in dairy farmers around Rio between 1997 and 2000

Thailand: Major decline in smallholder poultry

But is a push or a pull??

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

The health implications

NegativeZoonotic and potential pandemic diseases;

One new emerging disease each year, of which 75 percent zoonotic. Economic impact considerable;

Of 1415 known pathogens, 62 percent of animal origin;

1.6 million annual TB fatalities of which 2-15 percent (?) of bovine origin;

Food borne pathogens important contributor to diarrheal diseases.

Contribution to obesity and other food related health risks

Positive

Provision of critical nutrients to vulnerable groups

Strong relationship between intake of animal source food and growth, cognitive behavior in children and pregnant and nursing women morbidity

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Conclusion

Reduce consumption?

Unlikely in the developing world

Make it safer and more sustainable

Internalize externalities but will result in higher price

Increase the share of the poor in the benefits of the Livestock Revolution

Higher environmental (GCC) and public health risks

Animal source foods, food security and climate change; burden, blessing or both? London, June 12, 2009

Editorial: Meat and the Planet

…….. There are no easy trade-offs when it comes to global warming — such as cutting back on cattle to make room for cars. The human passion for meat is certainly not about to end anytime soon. As “Livestock’s Long Shadow” makes clear, our health and the health of the planet depend on pushing livestock production in more sustainable directions.

NYT, December 27, 2006