Trends in Project Management1966 - 2015

David Biggins, Therese Lawlor-Wright, Lynne Truelove

Wednesday 7 September 2016

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What’s coming up

• Presentation vs paper• Why?• Previous research• Methodology and method• Findings• Limitations• Future research

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Presentation vs paper

• Presentation focuses on the method, some findings and next steps

• Of more use/interest to the audience?• Perhaps BAM will consider a PM Track?• Full findings in the paper

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Why?

• Academic rationale• Build and expand on past bibliometric research • Enabled by growth in online repositories• Past trends highlight areas of interest and fads• Past trends predict future directions• Identify gaps in research• Of interest/use to academic PM staff• Use as a basis for future research

• Personal rationale• Justification for my PhD topic

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Similar research

Year Authors Period Scope Records

1995 Betts and Lansley 1983-1992 IJPM 347

2000 Themistocleous and Wearne 1984-1998 IJPM and PMJ 748

2000 Urli and Urli 1987-1996 ABI-inform 3,565

2000 Zobel and Wearne 1996-1998 4 PMI conferences 633

2000 Morris et al APMBoK 3rd edition APMBOK N/A

2002 Kloppenborg and Opfer 1960-1999 Online sources 3,554

2006 Crawford et al 1994-2003 IJPM and PMJ 1,051

2007 Smyth and Morris 2005 IJPM 68

2008 Carden and Egan 1968-2004 IJPM and PMJ 98

2009 Artto et al 1986-2007 23 business (but no PM journals) 1,681

2009 Kwak and Anbari 1950s-2007 18 business (but no PM journals) 537

2009 Ika 1986-2004 Project success in IJPM and PMJ 30

2010 Williams 1998-2007 IJPM and PMJ 828

2011 Biedenbach and Müller 1994-2007 3 IRNOP conferences 116

2015 Pollack and Adler 1962-2012 Web of Science and Scopus 94,472

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Methodology

• Aim – to identify the trends in PM literature, in the last 50 years

• Objectivist ontology – knowledge is reached through reason and there is a single reality

• Positivist epistemology – knowledge is observable

• Sample – PM-related records in 4 online repositories between 1966-2016

• Quantitative method – the numbers tell the story

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Method

• Identification• Extraction• Data cleansing• Categories and topics• Search engine creation

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M1. Identification

Source

Scopus

IEEE Xplore

Web of Science

EBSCOhost

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M1. Identification

Source Search

Scopus Search for “project management” in article title, abstract and keywords, between 1966-2015

IEEE Xplore Search for “project management” in basic search, between 1966-2015

Web of Science Search for “project management” in topic

EBSCOhostSearch for "project management" in title, abstract or subject terms, between 1966-2015 in the English language.

   

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M1. Identification

Source Search Matchingrecords

Scopus Search for “project management” in article title, abstract and keywords, between 1966-2015 86,276

IEEE Xplore Search for “project management” in basic search, between 1966-2015 15,180

Web of Science Search for “project management” in topic 12,597

EBSCOhostSearch for "project management" in title, abstract or subject terms, between 1966-2015 in the English language.

44,600

    158,653

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M2. Extraction

• Via file export / import• Multiple extracts eg 58 files for Scopus• Use of 3rd party application for EBSCOhost

extract

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M3. Data cleansing

• Source data • Corruption by the

export/import • Spelling eg US/UK• Category designation

• Duplicate removal• Field matching

• Formatting eg forenames, case, end full stop

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M3. Data cleansing

116,202

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M4. Categories and topicsNr Category Topics1 Strategic alignment Strategy; business case; program/programme management; portfolio management; benefits; alignment;

organisational change; financial appraisal; prioritisation

2 Project success Project success; project management success; success factors; success criteria3 Stakeholder management Stakeholder; customer satisfaction4 Project evaluation Organisational learning; performance management; project review; project appraisal

5 Planning Planning; estimating; scope management; schedule; scheduling; PERT; critical path; critical chain; activity network

6 Iron triangle Time management; Cost management; Quality; TQM; total quality management; Earned value; EVM

7 Project start-up Initiation; startup; start up8 Project execution and control Reporting; change control; life cycle; lifecycle; monitoring; control9 Project close Project close; testing; commission; handover; acceptance10 Risk management Risk 11 Procurement Procurement; purchasing; contract management12 Soft skills Soft skills; conflict management; leadership; negotiation; problem solving; teamwork; decision making;

trust13 Environment Legal; health; safety; environment; environmental impact; sustainability; culture; public sector; private

sector14 Project organisation Project organisation; roles; responsibilities; communication; PMO; sponsor; executive; maturity

15 Project management method Project management method; PRINCE2; PMBOK; APMBOK; Body of knowledge; BOK; agile; scrum; governance

16 Personal development Training; accreditation; qualification; experience; certification; competence

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M5. Search engine

• Within Excel• Choose category, search for topics• Max 1 match per record• Between 348k – 3.5m searches per category

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Findings

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All Scopus records by year

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PM records by year

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Source publications

Type Records Type RecordsConference Paper 45,233 Article in Press 116

Article 31,622 Editorial 100Unknown 22,182 Report 64

Review 8,701 Chapter 50Short Survey 2,167 IEEE Standards 22

Book 2,063 Letter 14Note 1,442 Erratum 6

Conference Review 720 Abstract Report 4Series 699 eBooks 4

Book Chapter 502 IEEE Courses 1Business Article 490 Total 116,202

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Category prevalence

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Category graphs

Planning Organisation Risk Procurement

Environment Iron triangle Closure Success

Exec & Control Soft skills Stakeholder Start-up

Personal Dev Strat Alignment Methods Evaluation

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TrendsNr Category Matches Slope 13 Project environment 29,508 4.46 Iron triangle 15,491 2.710 Risk management 11,910 2.51 Strategic alignment 13,147 1.916 Personal development 18,965 1.63 Stakeholder management 5,138 1.514 Project organisation 18,039 1.215 Project management method 3,543 1.112 Soft skills 15,022 1.12 Project success 2,800 0.99 Project close 8,698 0.611 Procurement 3,431 0.37 Project start-up 999 0.074 Project evaluation 644 -0.058 Project execution and control 28,934 -0.95 Planning 38,243 -1.1

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Limitations

• Descriptive • Data cleansing severity• English language publications• Incomplete electronic records eg PMI• Many journals/conferences missing• Categories and topics• Analysis of citation data not possible

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Future research

• Understand the data eg the 2004 peak• Develop into a journal article• Further analysis – emergent topics, keywords ..• Add 2016 data • Identify seminal works using citations

• Dataset is available from the authorplease email dbiggins@bournemouth.ac.uk

• Caveats about the data quality

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Thank you

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Planning

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Project environment

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Project execution and control

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Personal development

30

Project organisation

31

Iron triangle

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Soft skills

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Strategic alignment

34

Risk management

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Project close

36

Stakeholder management

37

Project management methods

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Procurement

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Project success

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Project start-up

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Project evaluation