Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets

Trends in the World Traditional &

Renewable Heating Markets

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables

Manager

BSRIA WMI

January 2015

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

Worlds largest traditional heating markets

Growth in traditional heating, 2014

US Heating market overview

Water heating markets US and Europe

World renewable markets

Growing importance of controls

2


Radiators 23%

UFH 10% WH

20%

CB 5%

DB 42%

Radiators 0% UFH

4%

WH 71%

CB 3%

DB/Furnaces 22%

World Heating Market Value by region, 2013

• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,

Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech

Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.

Population (million inhabitants)

USA + Canada Europe Japan China

352 778 127 1,360

3

North America Total: US$ 9.323 million

Europe* Total: US$ 15.644 million

Radiators 1% UFH

6%

WH 79%

CB 2%

DB 12%

Japan Total: US$ 4,333 million

China Total: US$ 7,258 million

Radiators 16%

UFH 23%

WH 48%

CB 4%

DB 9%


World boiler market overview 2013-2017

4

‘000 units

Source: BSRIA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2013

2014

2017


Gas furnaces,

89%

Oil furnaces,

0%

Electric furnaces,

9%

US heating market overview 2013-2017

5

Share of heating technologies based on

sales volumes

US furnace market by type of fuel

3% 6% 9%

9% 2% 2%

84%

78%

3%

5%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2013 2017

CHP

Heat Pumps

Furnaces

FS Commercialboilers

FS Domesticheating

Wall hung boilers

000 units

2013

Gas furnaces

84%

Oil furnaces

1%

Electric furnaces

15%

2017

WH gas boilers

26%

FS gas boilers

60%

FS oil boilers

14%

US boiler market by type of fuel

2013

WH gas boilers

29%

FS gas boilers

65%

FS oil boilers

6%

2017

Heat pumps include GS dry distribution HP and hydronic HP


Increasing

gasification in

China, Russia

and S. Korea

6

Main trends in traditional Heating markets,

2013 - 2014

Importance

Urgency

Move towards

Communal heating

Growing substitution

of boilers by

renewables

in new build

Increasing

penetration

of wall-hung

boilers

Gas-fuelled boilers

dominance grows

Energy efficiency

targets drive sales

of condensing boilers

and water heaters

• Low oil/gas

prices

• Push for

reduction of

CO2 emissions

• Energy

security issues

• Economics

Global Drivers:


World Domestic Boiler Technology overview

Sales of Condensing units Sales of Non-Condensing units

Thousand u

nits

Thousand u

nits

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Japan

China

NAmerica

Europe

CAGR

2013-2017

8.5%

CAGR

2013-2017

-7.5%


Europe – Legislation impact on markets

• Increase in Combined & Hybrid

systems

Eco Design

A +++ ≥150%

A ++ ≥125%

A + ≥98%

A ≥90%

B ≥82%

C ≥75%

D ≥36%

E ≥34%

Cogeneration Gas HP

Condensing

boilers

Non-

condensing

boilers

Ground /Water to

water HP

Air to water HP

From 26/9/2015

products with Label

D to G are no longer

allowed to be sold

• Enhanced Controls

Fuel cell

Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015

8

• Significant shift towards

condensing boilers within the

next three years


World Commercial Boilers Technology overview

9

000 units 000 units

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013 2017

Commercial condensing Commercial non-condensing

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2017

000 units

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2017

000 units


World Water Heating markets

10

Europe 11%

Russia 3% North

America 11%

Brazil 28% India

2%

China 28%

Japan 4%

Saudi Arabia

3%

Others 10%

World water heating market

Volume, 2013

Includes: GSWH, GIWH, ESWH, EIWH,

STWH, HPWH

Total 98.6 mln units 0.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

20,000.0

25,000.0

30,000.0

Brazil China Europe North America Japan

Electric storage Gas storage Electric instantaneous

Gas instantaneous ST Water Heaters SHW HP

Largest water heating markets by technology, 2013

000 units


Water Heating market – Europe

Technology overview

11

European Water Heating market,

by type, 2013

DHW HP sales, units, 2009 - 2018

• Electric storage dominate the market

but their share will decrease.

• The share of renewable WH systems

is set to grow thanks to DHW HP

uptake.

• Condensing WH will become

prevalent from 2018 due to the

legislation.

Source: BSRIA, based on market analysis for 19 European countries

ST Water Heaters

3% DHW HP

2%

Combi boilers 34%

Electric storage 44%

Gas storage 1%

Electric instantaneous

8%

Gas instantaneous

8%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F2017F2018F

12 Excellence in Market Intelligence 12

Water Heating market US

Technology overview

Electric storage WH

43%

Gas storage 47%

Electric instantaneous

3%

Gas instantaneous

5%

DHWHP 1%

ST 0%

Combi boilers 1%

US Water Heating market,

by type, 2013

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

DHW HP sales, units, 2009 - 2018

• Electric storage and gas storage units

dominate the market.

• The share of DHW HP will grow due to

the new DOE efficiency standards.

• Shift to condensing units in gas water

heaters due to the above legislation.


World Renewable Market Value by region, 2013

* Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy,

Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland.

Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland

13

Europe* Total: US$ 3,910 mln

USA Total: US$ 739.6mln

Japan Total: US$ 1.988 mln

China Total: US$ 5,160 mln

Geoth.& hydronic

HP 59%

ST systems 6%

Gas HP 0%

CHP/ Fuel Cells 10%

Heat recovery

25% El. Hydronic

HP 64%

ST systems

2%

Gas HP 0%

CHP/ Fuel Cells 32%

Heat recovery

2%

Electric Heat Pump 51%

Solar Thermal systems

21%

Gas HP(1) 1%

Micro-CHP/ Fuel

Cells(2) 6%

Heat recovery(

3) 22%

El. Hydronic

HP 20%

ST systems

71%

Gas HP 0%

CHP/ Fuel Cells 8%

Heat recovery

1%


World hydronic Heat Pump Market by value, 2013

14

Regional market, share by value Top 10 ranking by country, US$ mln

Total market: US$ 5,303 million

- 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0

Finland

Italy

Australia

Austria

Switzerland

Sweden

France

Germany

China

Japan

36.6%

53.8%

9.6%

Europe Asia Pacific Americas


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Others

Finland

Italy

Austria

Sweden

Switzerland

UK

France

Germany

Heat pump market

Europe

Total heat pump sales per country in Europe, units, 2011 - 2017


World Solar Thermal Market by value, 2013

16

Regional market, share by value Top 10 ranking by country, US$ mln

Total market: 6,024 million US$

73%

20%

4% 2% 1%

Asia Pacific

Europe

Americas

India

Africa

- 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 3,000.0 3,500.0 4,000.0

Japan

Mexico

Italy

Poland

Turkey

India

Australia

Brazil

Germany

China


European Solar thermal markets 2012-2014

17

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2012 2013 2014

Overall

Europe

market value

down by 13%


System integration in family homes in Europe

Will gain

importance

after ErP will

take effect in

2015

Will gain

importance with

increasing

share of RES in

electricity

production


Sales of hydronic controls in Europe, 2013

European Control market outlook

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

2013

2020

‘000 units

CAGR

7% CAGR

10%

CAGR

5%

TRV, 63%

MRV,

37%

Includes: UK, Germany, Italy, France, Poland


Thank you

Contact:

Krystyna Dawson

Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836

Email: [email protected]

Date post:	16-Jul-2015
Category:	Data & Analytics
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Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets

Data & Analytics