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TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION
Tracey Burns5 November 2014
2
Trends Shaping Education
• Intention and purpose
– Inform strategic thinking
– Stimulate reflection about the future of education
• Aimed at broad audience
• NOT a statistical compendium nor a prescription for policy
3
Spotlights
Exploring specific trends and their link to education
• Just released: No 5: New technologies
• Next issue: No 6: Modern Families (end 2014)
• Preparation of the next volume of Trends Shaping Education starting early 2015
4
Preparing the publication
• Research process – exploring interesting data
• To be included, data needs to be:
• Robust
• International
• Show a long-term trend
5
Trends Shaping Education 2013
• Five thematic chapters– A global world– Living well– Labour and skill dynamics– Modern families– Infinite connection
6
Trends Shaping Education 2013More diverse communities
Question:Which country had the largest stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population in 2010?
A.IsraelB.PolandC.Australia
7
Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: World Bank (2012) World Databank.
More diverse communities
Stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population, 1960, 1985 and 2010
Isra
el
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Ca
na
da
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lia
Ire
lan
d
Au
stri
a
Sw
ed
en
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Est
on
ia
Ge
rma
ny
Ice
lan
d
OE
CD
Ave
rag
e
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
No
rwa
y
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De
nm
ark
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
er.
..
Po
rtu
ga
l
Slo
ven
ia
Italy
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Fin
lan
d
So
uth
Afr
ica
Hu
ng
ary
Slo
vak
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pu
blic
Po
lan
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Tu
rke
y
Ch
ile
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an
Ko
rea
Me
xico
Ind
ia
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
Ind
on
esi
a
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1985 2010
8
Trends Shaping Education 2013Fit or fat?
Question:Women are typically recommended to consume about 2,000 calories a day and men 2,500. What’s the actual average daily intake in OECD countries?
A.3400 caloriesB.2400 caloriesC.4400 calories
9
Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: Gapminder (2011), Data in Gapminder World: List of Indicators, online.
Fit or fat?
Average BMI of males and females in 1980, 1994 and 2008
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Me
xico
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Tu
rke
y
Ch
ile
Au
stra
lia
Isra
el
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ire
lan
d
Ca
na
da
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Lu
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urg
Slo
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Re
pu
blic
Ice
lan
d
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
...
Hu
ng
ary
Ge
rma
ny
Po
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l
No
rwa
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Po
lan
d
Fin
lan
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Be
lgiu
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Bra
zil
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Est
on
ia
Ita
ly
Gre
ece
De
nm
ark
Fra
nce
Sw
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rla
nd
Ko
rea
Ch
ina
Jap
an
Ind
on
esi
a
Ind
ia
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Overweight Range Normal Weight Range Underweight Range 1980 1994 2008
10
Trends Shaping Education 2013
Question:Voter turnout is a good measure of civic participation. Which OECD country has seen the largest decline in voter turnout between 1950-2010?
A.BelgiumB.TurkeyC.Poland
Fewer people engaged in their democracies
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: International IDEA (2011), Voter Turnout Database.
Fewer people engaged in their democracies
Parliamentary voter turnout, in 1950, 1980 and 2010
Au
stra
lia
Be
lgiu
m
Tu
rke
y
Ice
lan
d
Au
stri
a
Italy
No
rwa
y
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Ge
rma
ny
Ire
lan
d
Jap
an
Fin
lan
d
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Slo
ven
ia
Isra
el
Est
on
ia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Gre
ece
Ca
na
da
Fra
nce
Slo
vak
Re
pu
blic
Ind
ia
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ko
rea
Po
lan
d
Me
xico
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Lu
xem
bo
urg
De
nm
ark
Ch
ile
Bra
zil
Sp
ain
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
...
Hu
ng
ary
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1980 2010
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Question:The median age of the world was just under 24 in 1950, according to UN estimates (in other words, as many people were aged below 24 as above it).
By 2100, the UN forecasts the median will be around what?
A. 28B. 36C. 42
Our populations are ageing
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
Our populations are ageing
Median age of the population, in 1950, 2010 and 2100
Me
xico
Jap
an
Po
rtu
ga
lB
razi
lS
pa
inC
hile
Ko
rea
Tu
rke
yA
ust
ria
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Italy
Ch
ina
Slo
ven
iaC
an
ad
aG
ree
ceIn
dia
OE
CD
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rag
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erm
an
yL
uxe
mb
ou
rgIs
rae
lS
we
de
nA
ust
ralia
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
licF
inla
nd
Fra
nce
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the
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nd
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ola
nd
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ice
lan
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lova
k R
ep
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ew
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ala
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ark
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rwa
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ela
nd
Be
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un
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ryE
sto
nia
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
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tion
So
uth
Afr
ica
Wo
rld
Ave
rag
e
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
501950 2010 2100
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Question:Since 1970 the divorce rate has been climbing in all OECD countries. What has the marriage rate been doing?
A. RisingB. DecliningC. Staying the same
Love and marriage
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: OECD (2011), OECD Family Database.
Fewer married people
Annual number of marriages per 1 000 population, in 1970 and 2009
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ko
rea
Po
lan
d
Isra
el
De
nm
ark
Jap
an
Me
xico
Fin
lan
d
Au
stra
lia
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Ice
lan
d
Ire
lan
d
Sw
ed
en
No
rwa
y
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
OE
CD
Ave
rag
e
Slo
vak
Re
pu
blic
Gre
ece
Ge
rma
ny
Ca
na
da
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Be
lgiu
m
Au
stri
a
Italy
Est
on
ia
Fra
nce
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Hu
ng
ary
Ch
ile
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Slo
ven
ia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970 2009
16
Trends Shaping Education 2013Increasing engagement with online communities
Question:How long did it take Facebook to reach 1 billion active users?
A. 12 yearsB. 10 yearsC. 8 years
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: Facebook (2014), News Room: Key Facts and Timeline.
Increasing engagement with online communities
Number of active Facebook users (in millions), 2004-2014
Dec/05
Jun/06
Dec/06
Jun/07
Dec/07
Jun/08
Dec/08
Jun/09
Dec/09
Jun/10
Dec/10
Jun/11
Dec/11
Jun/12
Dec/12
Jun/13
Dec/13
Jun/14
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Question:In Belgium, what percentage of young people reported that they had been bullied online?
A. 6%B. 15%C. 23%
Cyber bullying: an emerging and troubling challenge
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Trends Shaping Education 2013
Source: Livingstone, S., L. Haddon, A. Görzig, and K. Ólafsson (2011), EU Kids Online.
Cyber bullying: an emerging and troubling challenge
Percentage of children bullied online and offline, 2010E
sto
nia
Au
stra
lia
De
nm
ark
Sw
ed
en
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
No
rwa
y
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Au
stri
a
Fra
nce
Hu
ng
ary
Be
lgiu
m
Po
lan
d
Fin
lan
d
Ge
rma
ny
Sp
ain
Slo
ven
ia
Ire
lan
d
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Gre
ece
Tu
rke
y
Po
rtu
ga
l
Italy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Bullied online Bullied, online or offline
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Trends Shaping Education
Questions for consideration• Are teachers equipped to incorporate the kind of
local diversity that results from greater immigration?
• Are graduates prepared with the necessary skills for successful international cooperation?
• What can schools do to aid well-being (e.g. teaching skills needed to manage one’s body, informing about risks of obesity) without overloading the curriculum?
• What can schools and universities do to foster civic literacy (e.g. voting)?
21
Trends Shaping Education
Questions for consideration• What role should education play in meeting the
needs of older members of the population?
• Does education nurture the creativity necessary to be innovative?
• Does increasing diversity of family structures affect the nature of home-school relations?
• Should schools see social network sites as an opportunity to extend the learning process/experience beyond the classroom?
• What responsibilities do educators have in monitoring student’s time online during school hours?
23
Trends Shaping Education 2013
Ageing PopulationsGlobal Economic Integration
International inequality
Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage
Changing balance of global power
More satisfied with life?
Lower voter turnout
Skills mismatch
Women in the labour market and childbirth
More diverse families, generally smaller and with
older parents
Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet
A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies
Migration and mobility
Urban lifeObesity epidemic