Lawrence Stringer, East Sussex County Council

Existing research data The TRICS Research Report 95/2 Pass-By and Diverted Trips: A Resume Good research but 1995Often used, sometimes rejectedThings have changedInvestigate the impact and assessment methodology for pass-by and diverted trips

Stage 1 - Information AnalysisLiterature ReviewUK National PolicyTravel Behaviour & TrendsCommercial ResearchAcademic ResearchInternational ResearchAnalysis of TRICS dataStage 2 - Individual SurveysPeer Review

Department for Transport: Guidance on Transport Assessment (2007)

TfL: Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance Document (2010)

Auckland Regional Transport Authority: Integrated Transport Assessment Guidelines & Supplementary Documents (2007)

National Planning Policy Framework (2012)

ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition (2012)

National Travel SurveyDistance travelled by car decreasingShopping trips account for one fifth of all tripsNumber of shopping trips per person per year has decreased year on year between 1995 and 2012

London Travel Demand Survey

Online Shopping Trends

Online ShoppingUK online grocery market represents approximately 4.5% of the total grocery market.

Kantar Media, 2012

Online ShoppingOnline grocery shopping increasing by 18.7% over the past 12 months22% of households shopped online for groceries over the past 12 monthsClick and CollectTesco & AsdaChronodriveRapidly growing market

Somerfield: Shopping Trip Survey (1996)

Somerfield, 1996

Tesco Survey: Shopping Centres Research Linked Trips Information, 2001

Table 4.1 Linked TripsTesco Stores Ltd, 2001

Store% RespondentsVisit shop before Tesco onlyVisit shop after Tesco onlyVisit shop before and after Tesco Total visiting another shopBasingstoke2718550Coventry3412349Milton Keynes258134Peterborough406854Stevenage4612864Surrey Quays387853Average3311549

Harries et al. (2012) Trip Generation Characteristics of Large-Format Retail Development Sites in AucklandHigh proportion of secondary (pass-by and diverted) trips exist, being in the range of 57-67%.Ghezawi et al. (1998) Convenience Store Trip Generationaverage percentage of pass-by trips recorded was 72%, relationship between pass-by trip percentage and adjacent street volumes Mouchel (2009) Proposed Tesco Store & Shopping Centre, West Bromwich: Working Paper 3 Linked Tripspass-by level 40% considered robust estimate during weekday PM peak

MacIver, A. (1999) Transportation Impact Assessment: Forecasting Travel Demand

General rules for the proportions of pass-by trips at superstore developments in the UK:

Superstores on major commuting routes in larger urban areas - 25-35%;Less commuting routes, in out-of-town locations and in urban areas with smaller populations - 15 to 25%;In town centres and on non-primary routes the proportion - 10%; andIn locations with little propensity to generate pass-by trips the proportion can be as low as 5%.

88 sites from TRICS Database

5 Location Types:Town CentreEdge of Town CentreSuburban (A)Suburban (B)Edge of Town

Surveys from 2000 onwards only

Mixture of Friday and Saturday surveys

GFA & Location TypeNo correlationFigure 7.1 GFA by Location

Proximity to major shopping typesA correlation exists to nearest commercial area

Trip ratesWeekday and weekend daily period (07:00-19:00) trip rate increases as distance from town centre increasesPeak hour spreading 1600 1900

Location Type07:00-19:0008:00-09:0016:00-17:0017:00-18:0018:00-19:00Town Centre71.5735.4527.2607.4236.186Edge of Town Centre95.3174.01810.80811.00111.287Suburban Area (A)111.5852.66111.06611.62111.251Suburban Area (B)121.4284.84511.55212.10412.654Edge of Town134.0595.40213.10414.27112.392TRICS Average116.9837.13411.63212.33411.639

Weekday daily period trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases

Facilities12 types of facilities considered. As GFA increases, the facilities provided within the store expands.

Facilities against Location TypeRange of facilities on offer increases as distance from the town centre increases

GFA & Population

4+ facilities = comparison stores, less than 4 facilities = convenience stores.

No observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to major area types or type of facilities provided.

As GFA drops below 3,000m2, population per 1,000m2 GFA also decreases

Literature ReviewLack of direction on how prevalence of pass-by and diverted trips should be addressed.Methodologies to assess these trips not provided in many policy guidelines.Commercial research has brought contradictory resultsPropensity for store customers to visit other shops within a town centre.Shopping habits are changing rapidly, especially online retail shopping and click and collect services. UK online grocery market represents approximately 4.5% of the total grocery market; increasing annually. Online shopping trends and click and collect services to be considered in determining trip rates and trip type proportions.

TRICS Data Review88 sites

Correlation between location type and proximity to the nearest commercial area

Friday peak period for store activity 1600 to 1900

Saturday peak period 100 to 1200

Trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases

No correlation between GFA and daily trip rate.

No observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to nearest competition, proximity to nearest residential area or commercial area of type of facilities provided.

Store location type is most important factor for consideration.

TRICS data review shows population and GFA to be less important factors.

Surveys to focus on the two ends of the scale town centre and edge of town sites. Six surveys at each location type.

Surveys to investigate the facilities on offer in each store and whether these are a point of influence in trip choice.

Surveys at click and collect locations to be undertaken.

Graham Scholefield, University of SalfordMartin Rogers, Dublin Institute of TechnologyAndrew MacIver, Napier University EdinburghDilum Dissanayake, University of NewcastleRachel Aldred, University of WestminsterGordon Stokes, University of OxfordAndrew Murdoch, TPP ConsultingRichard Sweet, PB Consultants Melvyn Dresner, Transport for LondonStuart Wilson, Transport Scotland

Survey CategoriesTown CentreEdge of Town

Number of Surveys

Questions for inclusion in survey interviews

Online shopping trends influencing overall store trip rates

Good MorningIm LS of East Sussex County Council and the TRICS ConsortiumIm part of the team working on the TRICS Pass-by & Diverted Trips research*As we know different types of developments different types of trips on the transport network. And thus consideration should be given to the different types of vehicular trips that are likely to be generated.

You have already heard a lot on the wide variety of TRIPS from RichardSo I wont bore you further..

However, this work is about:Pass-by trips are already present on the road network directly adjacent to accesses to a development. Diverted trips are already present on the local road network but not the road(s) from which access is taken and would divert from their existing route to access the development.

Presence of secondary trips is recognised but type trip proportion data is limited. The lack of consideration of secondary trips can lead to an over-estimate of traffic demands.

Last research carried out in this area of trip generation was undertaken by TRICS in 1995. The TRICS Research Report 95/2 Pass-By and Diverted Trips: A Resume is one of the most used and quoted reports to be produced by TRICS. It was a good report, but nearly 20 years old.Therefore, we decided to refresh and update the research findings in this area to support robust trip generation and transport assessments.*

Stage 1: Recent transport and planning policy guidance reviewed. Considered research undertaken to look at secondary trips in retail developments. Policy research - UK, US, Europe, Australia and New Zealand also considered. Weve also looked at travel behaviour and trip trends, data from the National Travel Survey and London Travel Demand Survey Any changes?

Academic literature on pass-by, diverted and other secondary trips is spread across several disciplines leading to a variety of definitions and models.

Only literature published since 1995 has been included.

We have also looked at the data available in TRICS

Ill cover what we are considering for Phase 2 and the Peer Review Group we have set up *Weve looked at some of the key policy documents from around the world:

Department for Transport: Guidance on Transport Assessment (2007)

Consideration should be given to different types of trips - likely to be generated (including pass-by and diverted trips) No methodology is provided for the way this should be done.

Transport for London: Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance Document (April 2010)

No methodology for how pass-by or diverted trips should be assessed; Simply stated that their prevalence should be investigated.

Auckland Regional Transport Authority: Integrated Transport Assessment Guidelines & Supplementary Documents (2007)

No reference is made to pass-by and diverted trips.

National Planning Policy Framework (2012)

No methodology for undertaking a transport assessment No mention of pass-by or diverted trips.

ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition (2012)

Contains guidance on pass-by and diverted trips. Further research currently taking place to be included in an updated report Not expected to be published within the next 6 months We will look at this when its available*National Travel Survey

Aim to provide understanding of changes in trip trends and travel behaviour since the publication of the 95/2 report.

2012 statistics: 64% of trips are made by car (42% by a driver, and 22% by a passenger). 9% are made by public transport (6% bus and 3% rail)22% of trips are made by foot2% by bicycle2% by other modes. Average distance travelled by both car drivers and car passengers has decreased. The distance travelled by public transport has increased. Shopping trips account for one fifth of all trips undertaken in Great Britain. Of all shopping trips undertaken in 2012, 21% were made on foot, 66% by car or van, 8% by local bus, 1% by rail and 3% by other modes of public transport. The number of shopping trips made per person per year has decreased year on year between 1995 and 2012.

London Travel Demand Survey

Londoners make more trips on weekdays than at weekends, with trip rates being around 5 per cent higher on an average weekday than on the average day (7-day week) including weekends. The primary trip purpose is for shopping and personal business. Trips for leisure purposes have increased by 5.5% in the 5 year period to the 2010 survey.

Online Shopping Trends We have also looked at this as it is a rapidly increasing area

*The UK has the most developed online food retailing market worldwide

5.5 billion market sales of online groceries in 2010.

The online grocery market represents approximately 4.5% of the UKs total grocery market.

Online grocery sales per capita in the UK are 82 higher than many other European countries ; eg:For Switzerland 23 and Belgium 18 *2012 study by Kantar Media: average of 1.3 million consumers purchase groceries online.

Majority of online grocery shoppers still make most of their grocery purchases in traditional stores: EG:approximately one-third indicating that 60% or more of their grocery purchases are made online.

Tesco online holds a greater share of shoppers than that held by its traditional stores. Asda ranks second with one-third of online grocery purchasers converting on its site.

We have also considered:Click and Collect

Asda, Tesco and Waitrose operate click and collect services within their stores.

Chronodrive, FranceOperates as dedicated pick-up / drive-through supermarkets where customers place orders online and choose a pickup location and time.

Service is offered for free with a commitment to a high standard of customer service. Approximately 50 stores, 130,000 regular customers - an average of 40 items bought per purchase in 2010. Current share is 0.6%. Predictions that this format of shopping will hold a 4 /5% share of the French grocery shopping market in the next few years.

Amazon (Collect+ and Amazon Locker) and eBay both offer forms of click and collect services.

Transport for London

Successful six month trial in November 2013 with Asda at six London Underground station car parks.

January 2014: Tesco, Waitrose and InPost established 'click and collect' facilities at London Underground Stations.

June 2014: Sainsburys to launch a click and collect service at seven London Underground stations.

So all very new

*Somerfield 1996 customer survey at 33 stores into customer shopping trends.

Results show: Pass-by and diverted trips are a significant feature of retail shopping. 46% of the surveyed customers visited another shop in a town centre on the same trip as that to Somerfield. Amount of linked expenditure varies depending on store location. In-town stores generate the highest average linked spend. Recognises other factors that influence pass-by and diverted trips including the town centre, facilities within the town and shop size.

*Tesco has undertaken various bits of researchTesco Survey: Shopping Centres Research Linked Trips Information, 2001

Interviews with customers at six Tesco stores Majority of shoppers used Tesco for their main food shopping Average spent varied significantly between the six stores. Average proportion of linked trips between the store and the town / district centre was 49%, with a range of 34% to 66%.

*Harries et al. (2012) Trip Generation Characteristics of Large-Format Retail Development Sites in Auckland

Interview and traffic count surveys undertaken at a supermarket and home improvement warehouse to determine trip type proportions (New Zealand context). A high proportion of secondary (pass-by and diverted) trips exist, being in the range of 57-67%.

Ghezawi et al. (1998) Convenience Store Trip Generation

Argues that inadequate information on trip generation is available in the ITE manual for certain land uses, including convenience stores. Questionnaires undertaken at half the stores to assess the percentage of pass-by trips. Average percentage of pass-by trips recorded was 72%, with a range of 61 to 85%. Positive relationship between pass-by trip percentage and adjacent street volumes (using average daily traffic flows).

*MacIver, A. (1999) Transportation Impact Assessment: Forecasting Travel Demand

Developed methodologies for estimating trip generation rates

There is evidence to suggest that the predictions made in a large number of TIA reports undertaken during the last two decades bear very little resemblance to actual trip distribution patterns.

An outline suggested by MacIver for forecasting the traffic demand at retail developments is shown on this slide

Pass-by trips vary between 5% and 35% depending on location as can be seen*TRICS database (v.7.1.1) interrogated to find characteristics of sites suitable for further data collection as part of Stage 2 of this research

Data for all sites on TRICS under the category Retail:

Food Superstore (01/A) from 2000 onwards was extracted and basic details collated.

A total of 88 sites have been included in the data review.

*GFA and location type information was recorded to investigate if a correlation between the two exists.

No correlation was established.

When Edge of Town Centre, Suburban (A) and Suburban (B) sites are grouped together and the average of the three locations added, a more defined positive correlation can be seen.

The review undertaken of commercial and academic research has not suggested a correlation between GFA and location type. *Distance between each store and the different major area types was calculated. No correlation between location type and proximity to residential areas, competition stores or the strategic road network is observed.

A correlation between location type and proximity to the nearest commercial area can be seen.

Daily trip rates were compared against proximity to SRN, commercial areas and residential areas, and no correlation has been found.

This showed no statistically significant relationship between the two groups, meaning proximity to SRN doesnt seem to impact trip rate.

*During the weekday daily period (07:00 19:00), the further out the location type from the town centre, the busier the store.

The peak weekday period for store activity is between 17:00 and 19:00, although 1600 1900 on Fridays

The trip rate between these hours increased as distance from the town centre increased.

Similar patterns are observed on Saturdays. The daily period trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases. A defined peak hour of 11:00-12:00 is seen in all location types.

*This is the graph showing the increase in trips as the distance from the town centre increases*The various facilities provided at each store have been examined and compared against GFA. Facilities included a Cafe or Restaurant; Click and Collect Services; Clothing; Electricals; Opticians, and Petrol Station.

As GFA increases, the facilities provided within the store expands.

No store in the TRICS database has all the services considered. The biggest store has nine of these facilities.

*When average number of facilities is compared against location type, no clear correlation can be seen.

When Edge of Town Centre, Suburban (A) and Suburban (B) sites are incorporated into one group, it can be seen that the range of facilities on offer increases as distance from the town centre increases.

*A number of steps taken to create a suitable catchment area for each store.

4+ facilities = comparison stores, less than 4 facilities = convenience stores. Shoppers would be prepared to travel for a maximum of 20 minutes to access a comparison store, and 10 minutes to access a convenience store.

There is no observable correlation between population per 1,000m2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to nearest competition, proximity to nearest residential area or commercial area of type of facilities provided.

As GFA drops below 3,000m2, population per 1,000m2 GFA decreases also.

*Key Conclusions:

Lack of directionContradictory resultsShopping habits are changing fastOnline shopping trends having more and more of an impact*Sites from 2000 considered 88 in totalSome correlations establishedTrip rate increases as distance from town centre increases

*Key points to influence Stage 2 and particularly the surveys

We will consider the conclusions of the TRICS data analysis

Our plan is to focus on 2 areas :Town CentreEdge of town

The offer at each store is also important whether they are important in trip choice

We are also considering Click & Collect

*A peer review group has been set up to provide guidance And input towards the various stages of the pass-by and diverted trips research process. Wide range of names on the group.

*We want your input on:

What we have done so far

Categories

Number of surveys

Questions

Online shopping and how that influences this research

So now Ill hand you back to Mike to chair a discussion on this research*