21
Techno-economic study Bart Lannoo, Jan Van Ooteghem IBBT – IBCN – UGent
Techno-economic study
Bart Lannoo, Jan Van Ooteghem
IBBT – IBCN – UGent
2
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business case
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
3
Forecasting
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Nu
mb
er
of
pa
ss
en
ge
rs p
er
da
y
RelationOostende - Eupen
Passenger forecasting
Adoption
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
First class adoption
Second class adoption
4
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business case
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
5
2. Wireless data networks
WiFi / WiMAX / Flash-OFDM
Dedicated networkfor Internet on the train
Used outdoor technologies
Satellite
1. Inherent delay:RTT ca. 500 ms
2. LOS required
GPRS / UMTS / HSDPA
1. Mobile networks
Network frommobile operators
3. Satellite networks
DVB-S2 / DVB-RCS
Suited for rural areas(cf. high-speed trains)
6
Potential coverage problems
Networks URBAN TUNNELS RURAL
Mobile network +++ ++ +
Wireless data network ++ ++ ++
Satellite network + +++
7
Technology assignment
Mobile networkWireless data network Satellite network
Full WiMAX network
Only UMTS/HSDPA
WiMAX where UMTS/HSDPA is insufficient
Pre-installed WiMAX network on certain tracks
1 way satellite + UMTS/HSDPA for uplink connection / gap filler
Mainscenarios
UMTS
UMTS+WiMAX
WiMAX+UMTS
WiMAX
Pre-installed WiMAX antennas in stationsWiMAX STAT.
SAT. 1 WAY
SAT. 2 WAY 2 way satellite + UMTS/HSDPA as gap filler
Specific cases
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 5
Case 4
Case 6
Case 7
8
Technology mapping
None - UMTS – HSDPA – WiMAX
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
UMTS + WiMAX
9
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business model
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
10
Cost parameters
Wirelessdata
networksMobile
networksSatellite
networks
Train equipment Outdoor antenna
Indoor network+ + +++
Network equipment Trackside network
NOC+++ + +
General costs Helpdesk
Sales (billing)
Marketing
++ ++ ++
Operations Maintenance and repair
Network management
License costs
+++ + ++
Network connection Outdoor link + +++ ++
11
Revenue schemes
Ticket types
Prepaid cards per hour (e.g. hotspot service)
Monthly subscriptions
Ticket price
Dependent on offered service: €2.9 – €3.9 (5 - 55 kbps)
Service of 30 kbps: Prepaid: €3.4 / Subscription: €18
Two revenue scenarios
Both first and second class paying
First class free Internet, second class paying
Modal switch from 1st to 2nd class!!!
12
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business case
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
13
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
14
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
16
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
17
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
18
Sensitivity results
-94%
2%
1%
1%
-1%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Bandwidth per user
Number of SIM cards per train
Second class adoption
Modal switch
Cellular bandwidth cost
CASE 1
51%
30%
-10%
4%
2%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Second class adoption
Bandwidth per user
Tariff per hour
Modal switch
Leasing percentage poles
CASE 5
Mobile networks
Due to the high bandwidth cost for UMTS
Full WiMAX network
More users + more bandwidth (less important with dedicated networks) = higher revenue
UMTS
WiMAX
19
Optimisations
Adapted rollout schemes
Heuristics (~ rolling out the right lines)
Based on number of passengers per train relation
Based on the route of a train relation
Based on interdependencies between train relations
Real options (~ rolling out on the right moment)
To introduce flexibility in the rollout time line
Rollout speed is adapted
20
Conclusions
Combination of technologies required
Dense railway network: UMTS + WiMAX
Rural railway network: Satellite solutions
Business case
Positive case in Belgium is possible
Influenced by many factors
User forecasting, rollout scheme, offered bandwidth
Business models
Role and participation of the partners important
21
Personal details:
Name:
Company:
Phone:
E-mail:
Bart Lannoo, Jan Van Ooteghem
IBBT – IBCN – UGent
+32 9 331 49 81
Thanks for your attention!
