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Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit-Oriented Development Arlie Adkins UC Berkeley Metro TDM Symposium Los Angeles February 5, 2008
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Page 1: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit-Oriented Development

Arlie AdkinsUC Berkeley

Metro TDM SymposiumLos Angeles

February 5, 2008

Page 2: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

Outline

• Trip Generation

• What we already know

• New evidence

• Parking Generation

• New evidence

• Minimum parking requirements

• Preliminary results from nationwide survey

• Lessons

Page 3: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorWhat We Already Know

Page 4: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorWhat We Already Know

Source: Lund, Cervero, Wilson (2004)

Page 5: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorWhat We Already Know

Source: Renne (2005)

Comparison of Shares of Transit Commuting Comparison of Shares of Transit Commuting in TODs versus Regions from 1970 in TODs versus Regions from 1970 -- 20002000

TODs maintained market shares while MSAswitnessed sharp declines

Page 6: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorWhat We Already Know

35% higher  probability

Sensitivity Test: Car Ownership Covariate

Source: Lund, Cervero, Wilson (2004)

Page 7: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel Behavior ITE Trip and Parking Generation

• Called the “Bible” of traffic Impact analysis • Widely relied on, especially in smaller cities• Known suburban, car- oriented bias • Likely overstates auto traffic impacts of TODs

Page 8: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorPutting the Issue in Context

Hypothetical 8 Acre Site

• 162 more units

• 20% density bonus

• $12 million saved in parking costs

• Increased transit ridership

• 801 units

• 100 units per acre

• 1762 parking spaces

• $33.3 million in parking capital costs

2.2

Park

ing

Spac

es p

er U

nit

• 963 units

• 120 units per acre

• 1058 parking spaces

• $21.3 million in parking capital costs

1.1

Park

ing

Spac

e pe

r Uni

t

Source: TCRP Report 128

Page 9: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Trip Generation New Evidence: TCRP Report 128

• Gauges TOD trip generation over-estimation

• Inform ITE Trip Generation Manual with adjustments for transit proximity

• Results presented in similar format to ITE

• 17 sites across 4 regions

Page 10: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Trip Generation New Evidence: TCRP Report 128

TODVeh. Trips

per DU (24 hr.)

ITE Rate

(24 hr.)

% point differencefrom ITE

Rate

Center Com. 4.79 6.72 -28.7%

Collins Cir. 0.88 6.72 -86.9%

Gresham Cen. 5.91 6.72 -12.1%

Merrick Apts. 2.01 6.72 -70.2%

Quatama Cr. 6.34 6.72 -5.6%

Mean 3.99 -- -40.7%

Std. Dev. 2.42 -- 36.1%

Metro Portland Trip Generation

Page 11: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Trip GenerationNew Evidence: TCRP Report 128

TODVeh.

Trips per DU

(24 hr.)

ITE Rate

(24 hr.)

% point differencefrom ITE

Rate

Mission Wells 3.21 6.72 -52.2%Montelena 2.46 6.72 -63.4%

Park Regency 5.01 6.72 -25.4%Verandas 3.10 6.72 -53.8%

Wayside Com. 3.26 5.86 -44.3%Mean 3.41 -- -47.8%

Std. Dev. 0.95 -- 14.3%

Page 12: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

•24 Hours: 44% fewer trips

•AM Peak: 49% fewer trips

•PM Peak: 48% fewer trips

TOD and Trip GenerationNew Evidence: TCRP Report 128

Page 13: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Trip GenerationNew Evidence: TCRP Report 128

Scatterplot of PM Trip Generation Rate to ITE Rate with Residential Densities

Page 14: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Trip GenerationNew Evidence: TCRP Report 128

Scatterplot of PM Trip Generation Rate to ITE Rate with Distance to CBD

Page 15: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

20 units/acre

5 units/acre

Influence of Residential Densities & Distance to CBD

TOD and Trip GenerationNew Evidence: TCRP Report 128

Page 16: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation

But What About Parking?

Page 17: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

Parking, Trip Generation and TODParking Generation: New Evidence

• Empirical study of parking generation

• 31 sites in Bay Area and Portland

• Peak and off-peak counts at each site

• Multiple sites in some station areas capture wide variation

Page 18: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: New Evidence

SiteObserved Parking

Generation

Differencefrom ITE

Rate

Gateway Station

Gateway Terrace 0.53 -56%

Gateway Park Apts. 0.82 -32%

E 148th Ave Station

Rachel Anne 0.88 -26%

Dalton Park 1.17 -3%

E 162nd Ave StationSequoia Park 0.79 -34%

Morgan Place 0.65 -46%

Gresham Central Station

Gresham Central 1.00 -17%

Mean 1.08 -11%Standard Deviation 0.24 20%

Site Observed Parking

Generation

Difference from ITE

Rate

Beaverton Creek Station

Center Pointe 1.23 3%

Elmonica Station

Elmonica Court 0.90 -25%

Cambridge Crssng. 1.05 -13%

Willow Creek

Wyndhaven 0.90 -25%

Quatama Station

Briarcreek 1.12 -7%

Quatama Crossing 1.32 10%

Quatama Village 1.37 14%

Orenco Station

Orenco Gardens 0.76 -37%

Portland Parking Generation: Preliminary Results

Page 19: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: New Evidence

Site Observed Parking Generation % different from ITE Rate

Walnut Creek: Pleasant Hill BART Station

Diablo Oaks 0.74 -38%

Arch. Walnut Creek 0.92 -23%

Park Regency 1.06 -12%

Arch. Walnut Creek Stat. 1.09 -9%

Villa Montanaro 1.23 -3%

Iron Horse Park 1.48 23%

San Leandro: Bayfair BART StationThe Hamlet 1.07 -11%

Union City BART StationThe Verandas 1.11 -7%

Parkside 1.13 -6%

Fremont BART StationPresidio 1.23 -3%

Watermark Place 1.27 5%

Mission Peaks 1.35 12%

Archstone Fremont 1.45 21%

Sun Pointe Village 1.47 23%

Park Vista Apartments 1.48 24%

Alborada Apartments 1.69 41%

Mean 1.22 2%Standard Deviation 0.24 20%

Bay Area Parking Generation:Preliminary Results

Page 20: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: New Evidence

FremontBART

Page 21: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: New Evidence

• Preliminary results show that peak parking generation increases by about .38 each half mile walking distance from the station

Given this number:

• A hypothetical 400-unit apartment complex built immediately adjacent to a rail station would need about 328 spaces

• A 400-unit complex 1 mile from the station would need 632 spaces

That’s a potential savings of as much as 3 acres!

Preliminary Results

Page 22: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: New Evidence

• Very few sites in study would support a car free lifestyle

• People might commute to work by train, other trips still require a car

• Further analysis may shed light on this

• Clearly car storage occurring

ITE Overestimates

Preliminary Results

Page 23: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: New Evidence

Sensitivity Test: Car Ownership Covariate

Page 24: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorParking Generation: Lessons

A Natural Marriage: TOD & Carsharing?A Natural Marriage: TOD & Carsharing?

Work/School

Shopping

Pers. BusinessMedical

Social-Rec

Other

Trip Purposes• 30% car-shedding (2001-2005)

• Mean VMT Reduction of 12% (2001-2005)

• Unfortunately carshare vehicles rare in suburban station areas

R. Cervero, A. Golub & B. Nee,(2007) San Francisco City CarShare: Longer-Term Travel-Demand Trends and Car Ownership Impacts, Transp. Res. Rec. 1992,, pp. 70-80.

Page 25: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

• Nationwide Survey of every city with a rail transit station

• 35% response rate (40% of cities over 100,000)

• Concentrations of 10 or more responses in Los Angeles, Bay Area, Chicago, and Washington-Boston corridor

TOD and Travel BehaviorMinimum Parking Requirements

Page 26: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

• Allowable Grounds for Variances to Minimum Parking Requi

TOD and Travel BehaviorMinimum Parking Requirements

Key findings:

•96% of cities surveyed have minimum off street parking requirements for multi-family housing

• 86% percent of these cities allow for variances to these requirements

•Average maximum variance allowed for rail station proximity: 24%

Preliminary Results

Page 27: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

• How receptive do you think elected officials in your city would be to lowering minimum parking requirements?

TOD and Travel BehaviorMinimum Parking Requirements

In GeneralWithin Walk of

Rail Station

Preliminary Results

Page 28: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

• Walkable, bikable neighborhoods

• Nearby services - including grocery stores and high quality school

• Access to a true transit network

• Carshare

TOD and Travel BehaviorLessons: Think Holistically

Train Station + Housing ≠ TOD

Page 29: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

• However...

TOD and Travel BehaviorLessons: Focus on Improving People’s Lives

• Global climate change is a strong policy and political driver

• Voters are paying attention

Photos credit: Flickr user Atwater Village Newbie

Photos credit: California High Speed Rail

Page 30: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorLessons: Focus on Improving People’s Lives

... a word of caution

• Efforts to reconfigure our transportation systems and our cities must be rooted in improving people’s lives if they are to be politically sustained

• Historically, this has been the root of major urban transformations (e.g. post-war suburbanization)

• Makes our jobs easier and more rewardingPhotos credit: Flickr user Atwater Village Newbie

Photos credit: California High Speed Rail

Page 31: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

•Conventional high frequency bus routes often overlooked in TOD discussion

• Bus lines generally carry the bulk of transit riders in a region

•More research is needed on the relationship between bus and TOD

TOD and Travel BehaviorLessons: Bus Networks and TOD

Los Angeles Bay Area Portland

Source: LA Metro; MTC; TriMet

Page 32: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorLessons: Bus Networks and TOD

Metro Rapid(Los Angeles)

Frequent Service (Portland)

Page 33: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorLessons: Bus Networks and TOD

Examples of recent bus TOD in Portland

Photos credited to developers

Page 34: Trip Generation, Parking Generation and Transit …media.metro.net/projects_studies/tdm/images/tdm_trip_generation.pdf · San Francisco City CarShare ... Trip Generation, Parking

TOD and Travel BehaviorThank You!

• Thank you! And keep up the good work.

• Please let me know if you’re interested

• in seeing our final parking generation analysis

• or results from the parking survey.

• Arlie Adkins

[email protected]


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