M. Fiorino :: 63M. Fiorino :: 63rdrd IHC St. Petersburg, FL 20000304 IHC St. Petersburg, FL 20000304
Tropical Cyclone diagnostic Tropical Cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL – developments at ESRL – tracking does matter…tracking does matter…
Mike [email protected]
Assimilation and Modeling BranchGlobal Systems Division
Earth System Research LaboratoryBoulder, CO
4 May 2009
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
TC diagnostics…TC diagnostics…
good tropicals = good tropics – good good tropicals = good tropics – good tropics = good models…tropics = good models…
tctrack – where’s the storms?tctrack – where’s the storms?
tcstruct – sfc wind structuretcstruct – sfc wind structure
tcfilt – kurihara et al ‘vortectomy’tcfilt – kurihara et al ‘vortectomy’
tromboning & windshield wiperingtromboning & windshield wipering
run-to-run consistency – model v ofclrun-to-run consistency – model v ofcl
rehosting of .F diagnostic routines as rehosting of .F diagnostic routines as openGrADS ‘user defined extensions’openGrADS ‘user defined extensions’
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
SHEM 2009 – 46% SHEM 2009 – 46% below below normal activitynormal activity
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
% improve ECMWF over CON% improve ECMWF over CON
http://ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf
SHEM 2009
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
01W – kujira – 200905040601W – kujira – 2009050406
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
2009050400 – FIM (GFS) sfc wind anal τ=02009050400 – FIM (GFS) sfc wind anal τ=0
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
verification – 72 h fc v anverification – 72 h fc v an
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcww3 – php interface to NRL graphicstcww3 – php interface to NRL graphics
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
Sig Wave z – NOGAPS + JTWC TCSig Wave z – NOGAPS + JTWC TC
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
GFS 2009050400 72-h fc v an – formationGFS 2009050400 72-h fc v an – formation
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
FIM8 (dx~30km) fc v an -- formationFIM8 (dx~30km) fc v an -- formation
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
ECMWF (awips) fc v an – formationECMWF (awips) fc v an – formation
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcstruct – GFS sfc forecasttcstruct – GFS sfc forecast
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
run-to-run consistencyrun-to-run consistency
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcstuct – radial wind profilestcstuct – radial wind profiles
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcfilt – “vortectomy”tcfilt – “vortectomy”
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcfilt – kurihara et al 1993tcfilt – kurihara et al 1993
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
TC tracking – constraintsTC tracking – constraints
make a forecastmake a forecast
track the tropical (low failure rate)track the tropical (low failure rate)
represent the operational definition represent the operational definition of the center…of the center… multiple centers wind v mass mid v low
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
ECMWF 2008 LANT mf v ec v tm trackersECMWF 2008 LANT mf v ec v tm trackers
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
% gain(loss) mf v tm tracker – GFS 2008 LANT% gain(loss) mf v tm tracker – GFS 2008 LANT
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
implementation of .F TC diagimplementation of .F TC diag
openGrADS2.0 and 1.10 user-defined extensions openGrADS2.0 and 1.10 user-defined extensions in the form of a library in the form of a library write separate write separate application or run in gradsapplication or run in grads
user-defined commands:user-defined commands: mfhilo – find max/min using three methods tcprop -- averaging in annulus
user-defined functionsuser-defined functions smth2d – Shuman 2-D smoother-desmoother fish – Ψ / Χ uv2vt – u,v (cart) u,v (cylindrical)
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
mfhilo/tcprop for 01W 2009050212mfhilo/tcprop for 01W 2009050212
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
Future directions…Future directions…
why ECMWF doing so well vis-à-vis CONwhy ECMWF doing so well vis-à-vis CON diagnostics of conv precip – comp to CPC
QMORPH satellite precip FIM model experiments with conv physics
(Grell)
tracking diagnosticstracking diagnostics sfc center upper trop lows – wv imagery
rehost other .F…rehost other .F…
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
upper-level flow 2009050400upper-level flow 2009050400
