The True Value of Critical Communications in the Information Age

Peter ClemonsManaging Director, Quixoticity Ltd

Melbourne Convention Centre, October 1, 2014

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• Clemons Consulting dedicated to critical communications since 1998• Quixoticity established in March 2012• 20+ years of experience of economic analysis & project

management & 18 years in mobile communications• Ex-director & board member of global TCCA• A fresh, flexible, adaptable, more robust approach to

forecasting• Using experience, knowledge & new techniques

to open a window on the future• Working closely together with industry to explore

new possibilities – seeing the world differently• Championing innovation & visionary thinking

Quixoticity?

Value(s)

Agenda for critical communications

• Political economy in the 21st century• The value of communications• Next-gen critical comms around the world• WRC-15• A new value model for critical comms

– The critical communications “singularity”

Political economy in the 21st century

Emergence of modern states

• Common ancestry, place & language• Periods of stability• Conflict & revolution• Economic base – agriculture, cattle, technology• Infrastructure• Rule of law – social contract• Protection of citizens - Public safety & security• Increasing complexity, variety of goods & services• Trade & commerce• Bread and circuses

Human needs• Survival• Safety & security• Relationships• Position• Aspirations

• Public v private• Monetary v non-monetary• Constantly changing according to circumstances & historical

moment

Booms & Busts• Economic factors• Production, circulation & distribution• Expectations – Rational & Irrational• Business cycles• Changes in energy & information regimes• Technological change• Linear v circular economy• Political economy• 21st century trends

Investment decisions• Hard choices• Risk and return• Today v/+ tomorrow• Public v/+ private• Use v/+ exchange• Basic v/+ higher needs• Stability v/+ growth

• Not either-or

Information Age Economy• Rapid technological change• Digital revolution - reproduction• Knowledge-based society – new hierarchies• High-tech economy – new currencies• Hyperconnectivity/Global village – new spaces – work/play• Miniaturization, Virtualization, Automation• Artificial/embedded intelligence – rise of algorithms• Smart Cities, mCommerce, mHealth, mCrime…..

The value of communications

A Tool for Everyone• The human need to communicate• Everyone has a personal device• No longer just a mobile phone• Multi-technology, multi-device environment• Different needs for different situations

– Coverage– Functionality– Security– Privacy

False Dichotomies (1)• Profit motive • Security motive

False Dichotomies (2)

• Commercial users • Professional users

Value of Global Standards• Historically, fragmented communications markets• The ETSI success story

– GSM, TETRA• 3GPP

– Economies of scale– Demand-driven– Releases– LTE – rich ecosystem

• 5G? Rise of the machines• “Pre-standards”• Network convergence/security• A never-ending story

A Ruthless World• Public sector funding• Need for transparency• Risk & uncertainty• Hyper-competition

– for attention– for legislation– for resources

• Short termism• Playing catch-up• Focus, focus, focus

– Clear, unified message– Hearts & minds

• Critical comms community needs to shout message from roof-tops

Next-gen critical comms around the world

A Global Challenge• Smaller global critical comms ecosystem• More recent switch to digital• Higher levels of security, resilience required• Hard to justify investment in new standard• Public safety LTE

– 3GPP Releases 11, 12, 13• Increasing global coordination• Still many challenges ahead

– Spectrum– Applications– Funding

• CAPEX• OPEX• Opportunity Costs

FirstNet• 9-11 - Call for nationwide PSS network in USA• Early allocation of spectrum in 700 MHz (Band 14)• LTE chosen by NPSTC for BB in 2009• 2x10 MHz + $7bn awarded by Govt. Act in 2012• First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet) set up in 2012• Painful progress in first 2 years• Many original B-TOP pilot networks cancelled• Frontier counties: Harris County, Adams County, LA-RICS• Danger of State Opt-Outs, lack of stakeholder buy-in, carrier capture• Lack of business plan, delayed engagement with states + suppliers• Bureaucracy, complexity & politics threatening the entire process• Mid-term elections in USA at end-2014

ESMCP (UK)• Emergency Services Mobile Communications Programme• Early deployment of nationwide public safety TETRA network,

operated by Airwave Solutions Ltd• Emergency services contracts up for renewal 2016-2022• UK Home Office has started tender process for a new ESN (Emergency

Services Network) including Broadband– Commercial operators encouraged to participate– No new spectrum guaranteed– No long-term TETRA extension guaranteed– “Cheaper, better, smarter.”

• Decision expected in 2015• Roll-out to start late 2016/2017

– Extension for Airwave?– Dependence on commercial operators?– Public safety LTE standard ready in time?

Europe• Largest TETRA network - German BD-BOS network - still being built• Desire for interoperability• Belgium, Netherlands, Finland et al. to refresh TETRA for another

10 years• Only Norway has chosen TEDS• Belgium, UK & Netherlands - MVNO models for (non-critical) data• France & Spain have trialled LTE at 400 MHz• Quest for spectrum – WRC-15, 700 MHz• Minimum requirement: 2x10 MHz• LEWP-RCEG, CEPT FM49• Mission-critical voice – not until 2020

What the rest are doing• Canada

– Following US Band 14/FirstNet, prefer PPP model• Middle East (Qatar)

– Qatar MoI private LTE already deployed• Australia

– Spectrum assigned for PSS BB in 800 MHz in 2011 Could still consider 700 MHz APT Band 28 solution

• China– Spectrum assigned for MCBB in 1.4 GHz

Huawei heavily promoting eLTE solution for SmartCities • Asia-Pacific/Latin America

– Regions 2/3 - Harmonised spectrum in 700 MHz (Band 28) Brazil & others looking at 450 MHz for rural coverage

WRC-15

International Telecommunication Union• Founded in Paris back in 1865• UN agency since 1947 based in Geneva• Over 700 members from 193 countries• ITU-R – Radiocommunication Sector – manages

radio-spectrum & satellite orbit resources• ITU-R responsible for World

Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC)• ITU responsible for Radio Regulations (RR)

updated at each WRC• No global alignment of spectrum allocation• World divided into 3 regions: roughly: EMEA,

Americas, Asia-Pacific• World Radiocommunications Committee

(WRC) every 3-4 years: next one in November 2015

WRC-15• WRC held every 4 years to update Radio Regulation (RR)• Next WRC to be held in Geneva on November 2-27, 2015• Common positions need to be reached by each regional administration:

– African Telecommunications Union– Asia-Pacific Telecommunity– Arab Spectrum Management Group– European Conference of Post & Telecommunications (CEPT)– Inter-American Telecommunication Commission (CITEL)– Regional Commonwealth in field of communications(Russia/CIS)

• 3 Agenda Items for WRC-15 are relevant for critical communications:– AI 1.1: Additional mobile/IMT spectrum (globally)– AI 1.2: Studies & rules for 700 MHz mobile use in Region 1 after

2015– AI 1.3: Broadband PPDR addition to Res 646

• Key decisions will also be made at WRC-15 regarding items for inclusion in WRC-18/19

Spectrum• All communications services depend on available, sufficient & appropriate

allocation of spectrum• Existing global critical comms - VHF/UHF/700/800/900 MHz• Commercial services - 800/900/1800/1900/2100/2600 MHz • Dedicated v harmonised spectrum• Sharing arrangements – co-primary, secondary etc.• Region 1 studying 700 MHz band (694-790 MHz) – compatibility with APT Band 28

(Asia-Pacific/Latin America)• Future allocations considered at WRC-15:

– Support for 1.4 GHz, 3.4-3.6/3.6-3.8 GHz– Shared at 470-694 MHz; 1350-1400/1492-1518 MHz; 5725-5850/5925-6425

MHz

• Support for PPDR/PSS/PMR• Other services• Interference• Technical considerations• Spectrum auctions

A Common Solution?• Interests of multiple sectors

– Mobile broadband (commercial + PPDR)– Maritime - Aeronautical– Satellite - Scientific use

• Regional interests• National interests

– i.e. 48 countries in CEPT

• Private interests– Very large private multinationals with aggressive R&D, legal teams etc.

• Need for critical comms industry to work closely together– Identify common bands– Avoid fragmentation– Cost-benefit analysis of spectrum usage– Fair access & pricing of spectrum (i.e. not via auction)– Actively participate in Conference Preparatory Groups

Opportunities & Threats• OPPORTUNITIES:• PPDR spectrum guaranteed for future requirements• Critical users - integral part of future comms landscape• Economies of scale; lower costs• Innovative new services become available• All future comms incorporate critical functionality

• THREATS:• Little interest from community in WRC-15• Governments raise money from spectrum auctions• Slow progress in negotiations – run out of time for agreements• Different national positions prevent harmonisation• Lack of devices for specific critical comms spectrum• Lack of investment in NB; lack of definition of BB

A new value model for critical comms

Energy - Information• The fundamental relationship for any economic entity

– Rifkin: Entropy bill of modern economies stuck in 2nd Industrial Revolution (too much energy to generate too little information!!)

• Sustainable development– Physical - the limit of the Virtual– Resource management - natural/human/digital

• Paradigm shifts in (critical) communications:– Cleaner, more efficient use of energy– Cloud computing to cope with big data– New modulation techniques for better bits/Hz– Inessential hardware replaced by software (SDN/NFV)– New forms of value/incentives (“currencies”?)– The fifth generation communications (5G) requirement

Data Overload• Switch to digital• Voice becomes another form of data• Data use growing faster than available bandwidth

– Text, images, video, location, sensors (big data)– Rich multimedia is becoming “mission-critical” (not just

voice + text)– Smartphones drive Mobile Internet (Convergence)

• More spectrum must be freed up to cope with demand– Lifestyle changes - Social media– Smart Cities, Smart Grid, SmartGov, Smart business– Data management in the digital age– The Cloud – Internet of Everything – Digital identities– New business models – Mcommerce - Digital currencies

Complexity• Modern economies are never in equilibrium

– New structures, services, applications emerging– Growth/decline is non-linear, unpredictable with

unforeseen consequences for total economy• Complexity theory actually turns out to be more

robust to change than traditional economic theory– A “break with the past” must be modelled in a

computational & sequential manner• Expect the unexpected – uncertainty and worst

case scenarios need to be built into models• Big data is not enough to cope with complexity• Industry sectors “evolve together”: co-evolution

– Critical comms co-evolves with commercial comms• New players (Huawei!) join the critical comms

industry – structural transformations• “Pre-standards” fight to become new standards

Sustainability• Diverse, productive, safe systems based

on trust• Human activity combined with the right

technology• System must put back more than it takes

away• Intelligent energy/ information regimes• Growth without waste: Circular economy• Critical communications as the base of a

sustainable society– Value based on what isn’t used, not just what is– Value based on prevention rather than reaction

to events

Economy & Meaning• A need to return to basic human needs/rights• All action should have a purpose• Synergies of working together

– Cooperation – social networks– Transformation of economies– New forms of enterprise– New currencies– New forms of value – shared value– New measures of economic activity

• Individual and collective responsibility• Equal opportunities• The value of difference & diversity• A common purpose, common goals

The “iPhone moment”• Critical communications is ripe for change• A major paradigm shift is under way • Can critical comms jump from 2G to 5G?

– 3G/4G as trial networks for the “Great Leap Forward”• Convergence & consolidation – new entrants• Major breakthrough in devices & apps

– Change in industry structure– Change in institutions– New business models– New products & services– Rich apps environment for critical comms

• Need for critical comms entrepreneurs/champions• Leading up to the “critical comms singularity”

• Human v/+ artificial intelligence– An interface/gateway between the two?

• Application of Moore’s Law– Sustained, exponential growth in computing

power

• Sudden, unexpected breakthrough in secure communications technology

• Total break from the past?• 2020? 2030? 2040?...• 1984 v/+ Brave New World?• Global consciousness?• The end of time?• The beginning of a new time?

Critical comms singularity?

Quixoticity - Next steps• Old habits die hard – urgent need to challenge the status quo• Economy is not set of equations/numbers; determined by human agency• Analysts are not passive observers of reality• Traditional ways of interpreting the world have reached their limits• New models of reality for a sustainable world• Can we prevent (or accelerate) the singularity?

• Therefore, Quixoticity is:– Deep knowledge of the essence of critical communications – A fresh new service for the global critical comms industry– Generational change– Identification of new possibilities– Innovative business models– Finding an industry path from A to B

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For more in-depth analysis & commentary on the critical communications landscape, please contact:

Peter ClemonsManaging Director, Quixoticity Ltd.9 Pine Grove, Penenden HeathMaidstone, Kent. ME14 2AJ. UK+44-7951-289934peter@quixoticity.comSkype: peterclemonsLinkedIn: Peter Clemons