| Date post: | 01-Jun-2018 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| Upload: | mohamed-salah-el-din |
| View: | 218 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
of 81
8/9/2019 Tsaini
1/81
University of Piraeus
Dept. of Maritime Studies
MSc in Shipping
International Shippingand World Trade
Supervising Professor: Merikas ndreas
uthor: Tsaini Penelope
8/9/2019 Tsaini
2/81
International Shipping
&World Trade
1
8/9/2019 Tsaini
3/81
Contents
Page
Introduction 6
Chapter One
Globalization and international trade 8
1.1. Shipping and the global economy 11
1.1.1. Overview of the effect of the economic crisis on the shipping industry 11
1.2. Growth in World seaborne trade 1
1.2.1 General !rends 1"
1. Seaborne trade by cargo type 16
1..1 #rude oil$ petroleum products and gas 16
1..2 %ry cargo shipments& ma'or and minor dry bul(s and other dry cargo 181." Seaborne !rade Outloo( 2
1.".1 Supply and demand 2
1.".2. Oil )rices 2
Chapter Two
World Trading Fleet26
2.1 *eading +leets 28
2.1.1. !op 2, controlled fleets ,
2.1.2 -a'or liner shipping operators ,
2.2 Overview of Ship !ypes 2
2. !he %emolition -ar(et 8
2." !onnage on Order
2./ )rices of 0ew uildings and Second and "1
2.6 #omparison of +leets and World !rade "2
2
8/9/2019 Tsaini
4/81
Chapter Three
Freight Rates Maret and Si!ple Regression "/
.1 !he %ry ul( -ar(et "/
.2 Simple 3egression 4nalysis "6
. Simple 3egression 4nalysis between #5 and #oal )rices /"." Simple 3egression 4nalysis between #5 and #apesie deadweight capacity 62
./ Simple 3egression 4nalysis between #5 and reported #apesie deadweight capacity 6
.6 !he !an(er -ar(et 76
.7 #ontainer -ar(et 78
.7.1 +reight rates on main routes 78
.7.2 #ontainer leasing 7
3
8/9/2019 Tsaini
5/81
4
8/9/2019 Tsaini
6/81
Introduction
5
8/9/2019 Tsaini
7/81
International Shipping and World Trade
Introduction
We live in a global society which is supported by a global economy, and that economy simplycould not function the way it does if it were not for ships and the shipping industry. Shipping is trulythe linchpin of the global economy: without shipping, intercontinental trade, the bulk transport ofraw materials and the import/export of affordable food and manufactured goods would simply notbe possible.Shipping is perhaps the most international of all the worlds great industries and one of the mostdangerous. t has always been recogni!ed that the best way of improving safety at sea is bydeveloping international regulations that are followed by all shipping nations. "egulating themaritime industry topromote safety and security and prevention of pollution from ships worldwide has been the functionof the nternational #aritime $rgani!ation since its inception in %&'&. $f all the sectors that makeup the global transport infrastructure, shipping probably has the lowest public profile and the leastrepresentative public image. ts importance is not well known although not a single area of our liferemains unaffected by it. (he #$ )ouncil at its &*rd session in +ovember -- endorsed theproposal of Secretary0eneral #r. 1fthimios #itropoulos that the theme for World #aritime 2ay--' would be 3nternational Shipping )arrier of World (rade3. (he theme was chosen to providean ideal opportunity to draw attention to the vital role that shipping plays in underpinning theinternational economy and its significant contribution to international trade and the world economyas the most efficient, safe and environmentally friendly method of transporting goods around theglobe. #$4s response to current environmental challenges was the theme chosen for --5 and3#$: 6- years in the service of shipping. for --7. (he latter was chosen as an appropriate way inwhich to celebrate the 6-th anniversary of the adoption of the #$ )onvention 8%&79 and the '-thanniversary of its entry into force 8%&'79. )limate change: a challenge for #$ too is the themechosen for --&.
6
8/9/2019 Tsaini
8/81
8/9/2019 Tsaini
9/81
Chapter OneGlobalization and international trade
t may seem obvious to say that, today, we live in a global world, and it is certainly true thatinternational trade among all the nations and regions of the world is nothing new. ;rom theut,as interaction between communities grew, trade developed and regional specialties, often foundedon the availability of particular raw materials or on saleable skillsets that had been developed overtime, began to emerge.
@s the world became more developed, proximity to raw materials and to markets became thefactors that, above all others, shaped the worlds economy and, in particular, the maBor tradepatterns and shipping routes. 1ventually, the great seaborne trades became established:
8
8/9/2019 Tsaini
10/81
coal from @ustralia, Southern @frica and +orth @merica to 1urope and the ;ar 1ast
grain from +orth and South @merica to @sia, @frica and the ;ar 1ast iron ore from South @merica and @ustralia to 1urope and the ;ar 1ast oil from the #iddle 1ast, West @frica, South @merica and the )aribbean to 1urope, +orth
@merica and @sia
and now we must add to this list
containeri!ed goods from the
8/9/2019 Tsaini
11/81
different movement patterns.lead author >ernd >lasius, a mathematical modeler at )arl =on $ssiet!ky Cniversity, wrote in an email.
;actoring in both the volume of ships and the number of other ports each is connected to, theseare the top ports in the world:
%.
8/9/2019 Tsaini
12/81
1$1$ Shipping and the global econo%"
t is generally accepted that more than &- I of global trade is carried by sea. (hroughout the lastcentury the shipping industry has seen a general trend of increases in total trade volume.ncreasing industriali!ation and the liberali!ation of national economies have fuelled free trade anda growing demand for consumer products. @dvances in technology have also made shipping anincreasingly efficient and swift method of transport.@s with all industrial sectors, however, shipping is not immune to occasional economic downturns,a notable fall in trade occurred, for example, during the worldwide economic recession of the early%&7-s.Eowever, although the growth in seaborne trade was tempered by the @sian financial crisis of thelate %&&-s, there was a healthy growth in maritime trade since %&&*. (he shipping industry is nowfeeling the effects of the slowdown in world trade and the reduced demand for shipping services.(he industry faces problems created by the collapse of the global debt markets and the exit ofmany e?uity investors from shipping at a time when the orderbook for new ships is at an alltimehigh and shipyard capacity has grown to an unprecedented level.(wo years ago, global trade was booming, fuelled by the phenomenal growth taking place inseveral rapidlyindustriali!ing countries, most notably the
8/9/2019 Tsaini
13/81
Table 1: Su%%ar" of 'orld fleet de&elop%ent (1)*+,-++*.
%&7- %&&- --- --' --6 --5 --7K(otal ;leet 8 +r9(otal ;leet 8m.2wt9(otal @ctive ;leet 8m.2wt9
5*,7*6%&.6n/a
57,**66'7.'&.5
75,'67-7.5&-.-
&,%-'&6-.-&'.7
&,&*6%,-.*%,-*.
&5,'-%,%%5.7%,%-'.
5
&&,5%%,%&7.*%,%''.
'(otal $rderbook 8m.2W(9(otal 2eliveries 8m.2W(9(otal Scrapping 8m.2W(9
*..%%*.*5
6.-*-.65.6%
7&.76'.-.**
%6.*6&.''.'
*7.7*5'.%*6.
**'.5&5&.*7.7'
'-&.5%&-.5-%-.-
(otal cargo demand8m.tons9(otal ton miles 8billions9;leet productivity 8tonmiles.2W(9L
*,5-%6,555
5,-55
,%'6%5,%%
7,57&
',&%7*,6&*
&,&&%
5,'&5,'5-
7,&*6
5,6%6*%,5
*-,66
7,-*,&*
&,57
7,5-**,&'-
&,*7
1stimated laid upI of World fleet laid up
n/an/a
6*.5&.5I
%7..*I
5.-.7I
%-.%%.-I
%.%%.%I
.7*.6I
!otes" # fleet productivity is calculated based on active fleet and not total fleet in terms of $%T, &''figures are partly estimates . ource" compiled based on data from *!+T$ and +larksons,
@ccording to Stopford, ship economic cycles are determined by the continuous adBustment ofdemand and supply for the shipping service where demand is closely related to the world economyalong other factors and supply by the supply of vessels, fleet productivity, shipbuilding andscrapping.n simpler worlds, the freight rates will determine the e?uilibrium between supply and demand. (hisnote will try to ?uantify the current situation and compare it to the end of 2ecember -5 and -7.>ased on data from )larksons and C+)(@2, (able presents a summary of the development ofthe supply and demand side for shipping and presents three scenarios for --&.
Table -: Suppl" and /e%and for hipping /ec +0,Apr +)
nd/ec,+0
nd/ec,+*
A of April +) and eti%atedcenario for -++)
#ro2ected decreae in trade 34 54 64(otal ;leet 8m.2W(9(otal cargo carrying capacity8m.tons9(otal demand of seaborne trade8m.tons9
%,%%5.77,6-57,-
%,%&7.*&,57,5-
%,-.*&,*&55,55
%,-.*&,*&55,77%
%,-.*&,*&55,&''
(otal surplus converted into 2W(8m.2W(9I of (otal ;leet
56.-6.7I
%.*%-.I
%-.7%5.*I
%&6.7%6.%I
%75.*%'.*I
ource" data from *!+T$ and +larksons
(wo approaches were used . one based on proBected ton miles and the other based on convertingdemand of seaborne trade into 2W( where a conversion factor from C+)(@2*is used based onthe year --5 8the conversion factor is 5.5 tons carried by 2W( which is kept constant for thescenarios9.
2
Stopford -$ -aritime ?conomics$ rd ?dition$ 3outledge$ 0ew @or($ 2,,3 A0#!4%$ 3eview of -aritime !ransport$ 2,,8
12
8/9/2019 Tsaini
14/81
(he total fleet represents capacity is calculated and compared to total demand for seaborne trade.(he surplus is then converted into 2W( surplus for the fleet and the percentage to the total worldfleet is given.;or the --& estimates, three scenarios in terms of proBected decrease in demand is given .namely 6I, 'I and I. (he World >ank proBected a decrease in trade volume by 6.%I aspresented in the first part of this paper. t should be noticed that the proBections in (able onlyrepresent a very high level and simplistic overview of the surplus in tonnage. t gives however an
indication of the situation.$ne can clearly see that the surplus in shipping will continue to widen and one can expect to seefurther cancellations of ships from the order book and a substantial amount of increase inscrapping or further tonnage being laid up in order to adBust the market and provide some recoveryof freight rates.(he results confirm a recent analysis by )larksons for the dry bulk market where distressdemolitions reached 5I of the fleet in %&57 and %*I in %&7*. (he current proBection for -%- isaround %7I of the current fleet in terms of 2W(. (able * proBects %'I to %5I depending on tradedevelopment.(he expected decrease in shipping activities will ease the demand for seafarers, in particular theshortage of officers which is estimated to be 7*,&-- by -% by the --7 2rewry #anpower"eport' and which was one of the areas of emphasi!e for the #$ campaign to attract entrants tothe shipping industry 8+ovember --79. (he estimate however assumes positive fleet growthwhich is unlikely in the current situation.
1$-$ Gro'th in World eaborne trade
World eaborne trade figure i.e. the amount of goods actually loaded aboard ships haveincreased considerably since the 5-s and in --5, reached 7.- billion tons of goods loaded, avolume increase of .7I over the previous year. 2uring the past three decades, the annual growthrate was *.% I.Strong demand for maritime transport services was fuelled by growth in the world economy and
international merchandise trade. 2espite rising energy prices and their potential implications fortransport costs and trade and despite growing global risks and uncertainties from factors such assoaring nonoil commodity prices, the global credit crunch, a depreciation of the CS dollar, and anunfolding food crisis, the world economy and trade have, so far, shown relative resilience. 8Source:C+)(@2 "eview of #aritime (ransport --79.
Table 7: /e&elop%ent of World Seaborne Trade (elected "ear in %illion of tone.
Year Oil !ain 8ul9 Other /r"Cargo
Total(all cargoe.
1)0+ 166- 66* 303 -5331)*+ 1*01 0)3 1+70 70+61))+ 1055 )3* 1-*5 6++*-+++ -137 1-** -577 5)*6-++3 -5)5 1*03 71*1 035--++0 -3*1 1))0 7766 *+--!ain 8ul9: Iron Ore Grain Coal bau;ite
8/9/2019 Tsaini
15/81
1$-$1 General Trend
1stimated data for --& indicate that world seaborne trade volumes fell by .' I suggesting, asnoted by some observers, that --7 marked the end of the Msuper cycleN. n --&, total goodsloaded amounted to 5.7 billion tons, down from 7. billion tons recorded in --7 8tables .% and.9.2eveloping countries continued to account for the largest share of global seaborne trade 86%. I
of all goods loaded and ''.- I of all goods unloaded9, reflecting their growing resilience toeconomic setbacks and an increasingly leading role in driving global trade. 2eveloped economiesshares of global goods loaded and unloaded were *. I and .* I respectively. (ransitioneconomies accounted for 6. I of goods loaded, and -.7 I of goods unloaded.(aken on a regional basis, @sia continues to dominate, with a share of % I of total goods loaded,followed in decreasing order by the @mericas, 1urope, $ceania and @frica. Since --7, $ceaniahas overtaken @frica as the fourth loading region, which reflects, in particular the rise in iron oreand coal shipments from @ustralia.$ver the past four decades, developing economies have consistently loaded 8exported9 moreinternational cargo than they have unloaded 8imported9. @t the same time, the volume of cargounloaded 8imports9 has been growing rapidly, catching up with the volume of goods loaded8exports9. (his development reflects O in particular O the evolution in the global production systemwhich has seen production of manufactured products increasingly being outsourced to distantlocations in developing countries, with a corresponding growth in intracompany trade O particularlytrade in parts and components used as production inputs. "obust industrial growth in emergingdeveloping countries and the associated demand for raw materials also have a role to play.@nother factor is the income or wealth effect. >igger incomes allow for the emergence of a middleclass in developing countries, which drives changes in the scale and composition of consumerdemand. (his may involve increased demand for finished products and consumer goods, and morediversified and sophisticated food items.@s demand for maritime transport services derives from global economic growth and the need tocarry international trade, shipping could not be sheltered from the contractions in the global 02E< >illiton to take over "io (into, a nonbinding agreement was signed between the twocompanies in --&. (he Boint venture represents a maBor collaboration within the global iron oreindustry. @nother important development relating to iron ore is the rapidly evolving pricing system,which will make the annually negotiated fixed contract prices less relevant in the future. Shortterm
?uarterly benchmark prices are introducing a more dynamic pricing system and are replacing theannual contracts which prevailed for over - years.(he worlds iron ore shipments were estimated at &-5 million tons in --&, an increase of 7.6 Iover --7. #aBor exporters included @ustralia, >ra!il, ndia and South @frica, while smallerexporters included )anada, #auritania, ra!il accounted for about 5-.- I of world iron ore exportsA @ustraliaremained the worlds largest exporter with *6. million tons 8an increase of more than %5.- Icompared to --79. 1xports from >ra!il amounted to 66.- million tons, a drop of '.6 I measuredagainst --7.Surging iron ore imports into @sia more than offset the falling imports in other regions, and theyhelp to explain the resilience shown by the dry bulk market in --&. (he engine of growth was)hina, whose iron ore imports increased dramatically 8by -.% I over --79, owing in particular to
the )hinese 0overnments fiscal stimulus package, which boosted domestic demand for steel at atime when the export market was depressed. (his was reflected in robust growth in )hinas steelproduction, which expanded by %*.' I to reach around '67 million tons, and which allowed )hinato remain the worlds leading steel producer. $ther maBor importers included Gapan 8.7 I lessthan in --79, Western 1urope 8*7. I less than in --79 and the "epublic of Dorea 8%.6 I lessthan in --79. With the exception of 1gypt, ndia, the slamic "epublic of ran, and Patar, all othersmaller importers, such as (aiwan
8/9/2019 Tsaini
21/81
through potential increases in distances travelled and tonmiles.
C$ Coal hip%ent
n --&, the volume of coal shipments 8thermal and coking9 totaled 7-' million tons, a volumee?uivalent to the --7 level 85&& million tons9. (hermal coal exports increased by around .% I
and reached '&-.- million tons 85*.* I of world coal shipments9. Shipments of coking coal, whichis also used in steel production, fell by .5 I to %' million tons. (ogether, @ustralia and ndonesiaaccounted for 6. I of the worlds thermal coal shipments, with ndonesia remaining the worldsleading exporter. ndonesia increased its thermal coal exports by a solid %6.7 I to reach **.'million tons, while @ustralia increased its thermal coal exports by around 5.% I. $ther maBorthermal coal exporters in --& included )hina, )olombia, the "ussian ;ederation, South @fricaand the >olivarian "epublic of =ene!uela.
Table 5: !a2or Coal I%porter and ;porter in -++)
mporters 1xportersGapan I @ustralia * I1urope % I ndonesia & I"epublic of Dorea % I "ussian ;ederation 7 I)hina %% I South @frica 7 India & I )olombia 7 I(aiwan ra!il I )anada * I#alaysia I )hina I(hailand I $thers ' ICnited States of@merica
I
@s regards coking or metallurgical coal used in steel production, @ustralia remained the worldslargest exporter, with a total of %*7 million tons O a marginal increase of about %.- I over --7.@ustralia is well positioned to increase its share of global trade, given the number of mineexpansions for coking coal scheduled to be developed over the next five years. (hese expansionplans suggest a firm commitment both by mines and by infrastructure operators and owners to
support the longterm growth of @ustralias export coking coal industry. (o benefit from thesignificant export opportunities associated with these expansion plans, a number of maBor portinfrastructure proBects are scheduled for the next decade, too. $ther lesser exporters, such as)anada, )hina and the Cnited States, have reduced their export volumes.(he main destinations for both types of coal exports 8thermal and coking9 are 1urope and Gapan,which together accounted for .5 I of the worlds coal imports in --&. Eowever, over recentyears, coal exporters have increasingly focused on @sia. ;or example, )olombia has started toship cargo to the
8/9/2019 Tsaini
22/81
0overnment closed many domestic mines considered to be unsafe and as international coal pricesbecame more attractive. 0rowing domestic energy re?uirements and low international coal priceshave prompted )hina and other @sian countries, including ndia, to increase their imports. (hesurge in coal exports from @ustralia to )hina caused port congestion and shipping delays, andincreased freight rates.
(hese emerging trends, affecting the direction of coal shipments as well as their scale, are likely to
shape the demand for bulk carriers and to alter bulk trade flows. World coal shipments are forecastto increase in -%-, with thermal coal volumes expected to increase at a slower rate than cokingcoal. @n issue to monitor is the pricing system, which is rapidly evolving. 2ifferential pricing isgaining ground, and an increasing share of sales is being priced on ?uarterly terms rather thanannual benchmarks.
/$ Grain hip%ent
;or the calendar year --&, world grain shipments are estimated to have fallen by . I to *%6million tons, with wheat and coarse grains accounting for about 5'.- I of the shipments. (heglobal financial and economic crisis and the subse?uent recession have badly hit demand forimported grain in several key importing regions, such as @sia. (he use of wheat has been growingat a modest rate in some developing countries 8e.g. ndia9, and relatively lower market prices andample supplies compared to recent years have supported the food demand for wheat. Eowever,the use of wheat and mai!e for animal feed has declined in many countries, along with the drop indemand for meat. ndustrial use of mai!e and wheat, mainly to produce starch and ethanol, hasalso been subdued, due to the less favorable economic situation. With the recovery under way,however, the consumption of wheat and mai!e for industrial purposes is expected to grow. n somecountries 8e.g. in the 1uropean Cnion9, reduced import demand has also reflected the improvedweather conditions and better crop yields.;or the crop year --&/%-, volumes of wheat exports are expected to fall at a faster rate than
coarse grains 87.5 I as compared with %.5 I9. Wheat exports from the worlds five largestexporters 8@rgentina, @ustralia, )anada, the 1uropean Cnion and the Cnited States9 are expectedto fall by %. I. With a prolonged period of drought O considered to be the worst for 5- years Ohaving a detrimental impact on its crop yields, @rgentina is proBected to record the sharpest drop inwheat exports 85.- I9. (he five large exporters are expected to maintain their export volumes ofcoarse grains 8with a marginal fall of less than % I9. 1xports from the 1uropean Cnion areexpected to record the largest drop 8&.- I9. n the Cnited States, the @pril -%- oil spill in the 0ulfof #exico and the difficulty of containing the oil slick caused concerns for the countrys grainexporters, as over '-.- I of all grains exports from Cnited States are shipped from the mouth ofthe #ississippi.(he drop in grain trade volumes is broadbased, spanning all regions 8fig. %. 8d99. ;or example,grain import volumes 8for the crop year --&/%-9 are expected to fall in the slamic "epublic of ran
8'-.* I9, the 1uropean Cnion 8*%.5 I9, the )ommonwealth of the ndependent States 8%&.5 I9,#orocco 8%&.6 I9, @lgeria 8%&.* I9, (unisia 8%5.& I9, the
8/9/2019 Tsaini
23/81
;rom the perspective of developing countries O especially the most vulnerable countries and theF2)s O the grain trade is of particular importance, given their heavy reliance on food imports. (hevulnerability of these countries to developments in the agricultural sector in general, and in thegrain segment in particular, is further emphasi!ed by the two recent maBor crises facing the world.(he food crisis and the financial crisis and economic downturn constitute maBor setbacks to effortsaimed at enhancing food security and alleviating poverty, including in the F2)s. n spite of theexpansion in the global production of grains recorded over the past decade, the growth in the
worlds population, with its associated needs, and, more recently, the sharp increase in the use ofgrains for biofuels and other industrial purposes, have the potential to usher in greater challenges.(hese may include supply shortages, everincreasing food prices, malnourishment and poverty.@lthough lower than at their peak levels of --7, and despite the effects of the economic downturn,food prices are still high by recent historical levels. n addition to the market volatility, due, amongother things, to weather related risks and their impact on production and supply levels, otheremerging concerns O for example, climaterelated impacts such as droughts, floods and watersalination O are compounding the challenge.
$ 8au;ite
8/9/2019 Tsaini
24/81
1$6 Seaborne Trade Outloo9
1$6$1 Suppl" and de%and
(he recovery on the demand side is a welcome development for shipping. 0lobal 02< andinternational seaborne trade are expected to further recover, with developing economies, and)hina in particular, charting the course. $ther fastgrowing @sian countries, including ndia andndonesia, are adding further speed.
8/9/2019 Tsaini
25/81
heavily on oil for propulsion, and is not yet in a position to effectively adopt energy substitutes. (hetrends that have been observed indicate that higher oil prices are immediately translated intohigher fuel costs. "eflecting a period of rising oil prices, bunker prices 8"otterdam *7- 8cSt99averaged Q* per ton in --', Q&* per ton in --6, Q*' per ton in --5 and Q5 per ton in--7. Similarly, the rapid fall in oil prices in --& resulted in a drop of '.- I in the --& averagebunker price 8"otterdam *7- cSt9. (his positive correlation could have serious financialimplications for shipping companies and for their bottom lines, since fuel costs have been shown to
account for up to 6-.- I of the total operating costs of a shipping company 8depending on the typeof ship and service9%%. >y extension, rising operating costs for shipowners entail a potential rise intransport costs paid by maritime transport users, namely shippers and trade.@ll things told, in addition to shipping demand and supply considerations and the importance ofnarrowing the imbalance between the relevant growth rates, the maritime industry and internationalseaborne trade are facing many challenges. #ore specifically, the connection between energysecurity, oil and fuel prices, and transport costs O as well as the climate change challenge O areemerging as increasingly important considerations that need to be taken into account by shipping.
11World Shipping #ouncil C2,,8D. 3ecord fuel prices place stress on ocean shipping. 2 -ay. 4vailable athttp&::www.worldshipping.org:pdf:WS#IfuelIstatementIfinal.pdf.
24
8/9/2019 Tsaini
26/81
Chapter Two
World Trading Fleet
25
8/9/2019 Tsaini
27/81
Chapter T'oWorld Trading Fleet
n Ganuary -%-, there were %-,%& commercial ships in service, with a combined tonnage of%,56,%*5 thousand dwt 8table .%9. $il tankers accounted for '- million dwt 8*'.* I9 and drybulk carriers for '5 million dwt 8*'.7 I9, representing annual increases of 5.6 and &.% I
respectively.)ontainer ships reached %6& million dwt O an increase of .' I over --& O while the fleet ofgeneral cargo ships declined during --&, reaching %-7 million dwt in Ganuary -%-,corresponding to Bust 7.' I of the fleet. @mong other vessel types, the tonnage of li?uefied gascarriers continued to grow, reaching % million dwt. (his was an increase ofalmost % I over --7, in which deliveries had already reached a historic high.
Table 3 World fleet ize b" &eel t"pe -++)?-+1+ (thouand of d't.
(ypes --& -%-
I
change
$il (ankers %7 66 '- -'* 5.6>ulk carriers %7 *'6 '6 6* &.%0eneral cargo ships %-7 77% %-7 * -.6)ontainer ships %6% &%& %6& %'7 .'$ther types of ships 7 7&' & -5 7.'Fi?uefied gas carriers *6 *% - 66 %%.&)hemical tankers 7 %% 5 *' &.5$ffshore supply '65 65* &.*;erries and passenger
ships 6 -7* 6 %' %.%$ther/ n.a. %% 56 %* & %.'World total % %& *%5 % 56 %*5 5.-
26
8/9/2019 Tsaini
28/81
Table 0 The 75 countrie and territorie 'ith the larget controlled fleet (d't. a of@anuar" -+1+
ource" +ompiled by the *!+T$ secretariat, on the basis of data supplied by /0 1airplay.
2essels of 3'' gross tons and above.
27
8/9/2019 Tsaini
29/81
-$1 =eading Fleet
n Ganuary -%-, the *' largest flags of registration accounted for &*.* I of the world fleet O afurther increase from the &.& I share of one year earlier. (he largest flag of registration continuesto be ahamas 8'.- I9. (ogether, these top ' registries accounted for '% I of the worlds deadweighttonnage, and the top %- registries accounted for 5%.* I O both figures showing increases over theprevious year.@s regards the number of ships, the largest fleets are flagged in
8/9/2019 Tsaini
30/81
8/9/2019 Tsaini
31/81
-$1$1$ Top -+ controlled fleet
>ased on total deadweight tonnage controlled by parent companies located in these countries andterritories. ;igures in brackets represent percentage of world fleet. 8Source: >ased on the C+)(@2"eview of #aritime (ransport --7. 82ata as of % Ganuary --7, compiled by the C+)(@2secretariat on the basis of data supplied by Floyds "egister ;airplay9
%. 0reece 8%6.7%I9. Gapan 8%'.'7I9*. 0ermany 8&.-5I9.
8/9/2019 Tsaini
32/81
Table ) Top -+ ran9ed operator of Container Ship a of @anuar" -+1+
ource" *!+T$ secretariat, based on 1leet tatistics from +ontainerization /nternational 4nline, available at http"55www.ci6online.co.uk.
n the first place there is #aersk Fine with a total of 5 vessels maintaining its position by growing
a -.*I compared to --&. n the second place, we have #S) with a total of *& vessels slightlydecreasing a -.I compared to --&. )#@ )0# group has taken the third place with a total of7& vessels and big increase since --& at the rate of &.I. (he top - liner companies remainedunchanged from the previous year, with %% companies from developing economies and & fromdeveloped economies. @sian economies dominated the list, with % companies from that region.$ne of the top - carriers is from Fatin @merica. ;ive are from 1urope, including the top three linercompanies, which are head?uartered in 2enmark, Swit!erland and ;rance.
31
8/9/2019 Tsaini
33/81
-$- O&er&ie' of Ship T"pe
A$ 8ul9 carrier
>ulk carriers are often called the workhorses of the international shipping fleet. (hey can bethought of as simple, relatively unsophisticated but nevertheless highly efficient vessels thattypically transport commodities such as grain, coal and mineral ores. f tankers provide the fuel thatpowers the modern economy, bulk carriers are responsible for moving the raw materials that are itslifeblood.n terms of si!e, the worlds bulk carrier fleet has three categoriesA ships of up to '-,--- dwt areknown as Mhandysi!edNA ships of '-,--- to 7-,--- dwt are known as
8/9/2019 Tsaini
34/81
-%% %%- %%'.7 6*.7 %6%. '%ource" - 7latou, http"55www.platou.com5dnn8site5Tables5Bulkcarriersfleetbysize.asp9
Table 1- e' Order in 8ul9 Carrier b" ize in %ill /'t
%-'&,&&& 6-5&,&&& 7-,---R (otal
%&& '. *,- 7. %6.7
%&&' '.% .5 5.& %5.5
%&&6 .7 '.' . %.5
%&&5 . 6.' 5,- %5.&
%&&7 .* ,6 *.' %-.
%&&& . &. .5 %7.'
--- 6.' *,5 .* %.'
--% *.' . *,- 7.5
-- 5.5 .7 &. %.&--* 5.5 5.5 %.6 5.&-- &.' .' %.7 7.7
--' 6,- %.7 &,- %6.7
--6 %.6 .* . *&,-
--5 *7.6 5.% %%'.& %6%.6
--7 *%.5 '.% '.6 &%.--& %%.7 *. %7. **.6
-%- %.% 6.* '6,- 7*.'
Table 17 8ul9 Carrier old for Scrapping in %ill /'t
%-'&,&&& 6-5&,&&& 7-,---R (otal
%&& %, -,& %,& ,-
%&&' -,6 -, %,* ,*
%&&6 ,* ,' *,* 7,%
%&&5 ,7 %,' *, 5,'
%&&7 *,& *,* , %%,6
%&&& ,6 ,' *,7 7,&
--- ,* -,5 %,- ,---% *, %,7 %,7 5,-
-- *,* %,' %,- ',7
--* , -,' -,6 *,-- -,6 -,% -,% -,7
--' -,6 -, -, %,%
--6 %,% -,6 -,' ,
--5 -,' -,% -,% -,5
--7 %,7 %, %,' ,6--& 6,* %,7 %,6 &,7
-%- ,5 -, ,& ',&
33
8/9/2019 Tsaini
35/81
Table 16 Second Band price for 5 "ear old 8ul9 Carrier in %ill
Start Eandymax
8/9/2019 Tsaini
36/81
replacement for heavy oil.
8/9/2019 Tsaini
37/81
--% '.7 %-. *,* 5.6 6.&
-- '.7 6.7 .7 *.& %&.*
--* %- %'. 7.5 %'.' &.*-- 5.7 %-.& .' %*,- *6.
--' 5,- '.7 %.% %%,- .&
--6 %6. %.6 %*.* *-.* 7%.'
--5 %'. %*.' 7.* %',- '.
--7 6.* '.* '.7 *.7 '-.%--& %. -.6 *.* ',7 %%.%
-%- .% 6.7 %%.* %&,& -.%
Table 10 Tan9er old for Scrapping b" ize in %ill /'t
%-6&,&&&
5-%%&,&&& %-%&&,&&& --,---R (otal
%&& -,6 %,* %,* 7,6 %%,7
%&&' -,& -,' %, 5,7 %-,6
%&&6 %,- -,6 %,% ,% 6,7
%&&5 -,* -,5 -, ,- *,
%&&7 -,' -,5 %,6 , 5,-
%&&& -,6 ,6 ,& %-,* %6,
--- ,- %,5 ,6 5,% %*,
--% %, %,& *,5 7,* %',%
-- ,' %,7 %,7 %%,5 %5,7
--* *,' *,' %,7 &,- %5,7
-- ,7 ,6 %,* %,' 7,
--' %,& %,' -, -,- *,7
--6 ,- %, -,- -,- *,
--5 ,6 -,5 -, -,- *,'
--7 %,7 -,7 -, %,* ,---& *,- %,* %,% , 5,5
-%- ',* %,7 %, *, %%,&
Table 1* Second Band #rice for 5 "ear old Tan9er in %ill
Start#"
8/9/2019 Tsaini
38/81
-- -,' *%,- *7,- 6-,'
--* %,- 7,- *5,- ',--- 7,- *7,- 7,- 5,-
--' *&,- '6,- 5%,' %-6,-
--6 ',- 6%,' 5',- %%*,'
--5 ',- 6,- 7%,- %%7,-
--7 '-,- 67,- &*,- %*6,---& *7,- '*,- 5%,- %-,-
-%- ',- -,- '6,- 7,--%% 5,- -,- '7,- 7',-
C$ General Cargo Ship
@lthough general cargo ships are still the largest single category, the trend among new ships ismore and more in favor of speciali!ation, although it could be argued that handysi!ed, geared bulkcarriers and versatile mediumsi!ed containerships, of which some have the ability to
accommodate several different box si!es as well as palleti!ed cargo are the natural successors ofthe old general cargo vessels.
/$ #aenger hip
ecause of their individuality, as well as their resonance with the great ocean liners of a bygoneera, these ships tend to be the best known and most recogni!ed among the general public at large.
$ne of the finest modern examples is the :ueen ary // , built in ;rance for )arnival )orp.s)unard in --. D!- is the largest, longest, tallest, widest ocean liner ever and has cost anestimated Q7-- million dollars. She incorporates all the very latest international standards withregard to safety,security and environmental protection, offering her passengers an unparalleled opportunity toexperience the wonders of ocean travel in the finest style. (he Independence of the #ea whichwas built in (urku 8;inland9 and started work in Southampton in @pril --7 is bigger at *-m andable to carry ,*5' passengers and more than %,--- crew. t will be surpassed in --& by the
+roect Genesis, a 5-- million vessel which will be able to carry ',-- guests.
With ships such as this, it is little wonder that, over the past ten or fifteen years, the cruise andpassenger sector has become one of the industrys most vibrant sectors and is now a maBor forcewithin shipping, both in terms of technological development and commercial success.
$ Container hip
>ut the one sector which can be said to have transformed the face of shipping, certainly in thelatter half of the -th century, is that of container shipping. Cnheard of before the %&6-s, thecontainer is now ubi?uitous and is the standard unit of cargo for Bust about every form of
manufactured item on the planet 8there are exceptions: cars, for example, are transported in
37
8/9/2019 Tsaini
39/81
special ships designed solely for the purpose9.(odays giant containerships typically operate between purposebuilt ports served by massivecranes that can load and unload containers at astonishing rates. )ontainership operators can offerfixed sailing schedules with tight delivery margins and these ships are now an integral part of themodern, multimodal transport and logistics industry.(he largest containership is the !y the beginning of --7 there were ,56 ships with a total capacity of %-.56 million (1Cs. (hisrepresents an increase of &.' 5I in the number of ships and an increase of %.I in (1C capacityover the previous year. 8Source: C+)(@2 "eview of #aritime (ransport --7, p.*9. 8(1CTwenty6foot ; p ?@
-$7 The /e%olition !ar9et
@t the beginning of --&, there were &&,5% commercial vessels of %-- 0( and above. 2uring theyear, *,6'7 new vessels were delivered 8R*.5 I of the existing fleet at the beginning of the year, in
terms of vessel numbers9, while %,-' ships were withdrawn and mostly demolished 8a reductionof %. I from the existing fleet9. (he resulting fleet total in Ganuary -%- amounted to %-,%&ships 8R.' I compared to Ganuary --&9.%-(he market for ship demolition O also called scrapping for recycling O is far more volatile than themarket for shipbuilding, as ships can be sold for demolition at short notice. n periods when freightand charter rates are high, shipowners are very reluctant to withdraw any ships from the market,while in times of low demand for maritime transport, owners are much more inclined to sell theirships to scrap yards. (he disadvantage of selling in times of low demand is that prices for scrapmetal are very low. >etween mid--7 and early --&, the price for scrap metal had fallen fromaround Q6'- per light displacement ton 8ldt9 to Bust Q--. Since then, the price has recovered,reaching about Q-- in #arch -%-.2uring the economic downturn in --7 and --&, however, the share of tonnage being demolishedincreased, and the average age of the fleet therefore decreased, as well as the age profiles and
38
8/9/2019 Tsaini
40/81
share of brokenup tonnage
Table 1) A&erage age of crapped hip b" t"pe 1))*,-++) (in "ear.
ource" +ompiled by the *!+T$ secretariat, on the basis of data from the hipping tatistics and arket -eview produced by
the /nstitute of hipping ;conomics and =ogistics.
-$6 Tonnage on Order
@s only a few new orders were placed in --& and shipyards slowed down the delivery of existingorders, the overall picture regarding the global order book has not changed much in recent months(he tonnage on order as at *% 2ecember --& consisted of '7.* million dwt of dry bulk carriers8'.' I of the total world deadweight tonnage on order9, %-&.* million dwt of oil tankers 8*.% I9,%' million dwt of general cargo vessels 8*. I9, '*.& million dwt of container ships 8%%. I9 and*5. million dwt of other vessel types 85.& I9. (he total tonnage on order stood at &, vessels,with a combined capacity of 5 million dwt.
39
8/9/2019 Tsaini
41/81
Table -+ World Tonnage on Order -+++ ? -++) (in thouand of d't.
40
8/9/2019 Tsaini
42/81
Figure 7 World Tonnage on Order
ource" +larksons
-$5 #rice of e' 8uilding and Second Band
$n account of overcapacity, prices for both new and secondhand ships continued to fall in --7and --& and in early -%- 8tables .%* and .%9. @verage newbuilding prices for dry bulk vesselswent down by between and & I between --7 and --&, container ships were sold %& to **I cheaper in --& compared to --7, and oil tanker prices fell by between * and 6 I.n the case of secondhand ships, the decline was even more dramatic. @verage prices for %-yearold dry bulk vessels decreased by between ' and 6% I between --7 and --&, %-yearold container ships were between 5 and 6& I cheaper in --& than in --7, and oil tanker pricesdeclined by between *7 and I. $n average, over the eight periods covered in tables .%* and.%, secondhand vessel prices were '- I more volatile than newbuilding prices 8i.e. thestatistical variance was '- I higher9, because secondhand prices are marketdriven whereasnewbuilding prices are driven by the cost of shipbuilding.
(he most expensive new ships continue to be F+0 carriers, which in #arch -%- typically costQ%- million, followed by large container ships, which typically sold for Q%-' million. +ew small drybulk carriers, in turn, were on sale for around Q' million.Shipping can benefit from important economies of scale. While a %,--- (1C ship carries almosttwice as many containers as a 6,'-- (1C ship, its price is only about I higher. >y the sametoken, a %5-,--- dwt )apesi!e dry bulk carrier is only 6* I more expensive than a 5',--- dwt
8/9/2019 Tsaini
43/81
Table -1 e' 8uilding #rice -++7, -+1+ ( a&erage annual in %il .
ource" +larksons
Table -- Second Band #rice for 5,"ear old hip for -+++,-++* (in %il .
ource" +larksons
-$3 Co%parion of Fleet and World Trade
n --&, )hina overtook 0ermany as the second largest trading nation 8measured in Cnited Statesdollars, imports plus exports9, accounting for 7.7* I of world trade. )hina has also overtaken0ermany as the thirdlargest owner of shipping tonnage, with 7.&6 I of dwt in Ganuary -%- 8seechapter 9. t is arguable whether or not these two developments are linked. >oth countries areimportant traders in manufactured goods, and both countries have largescale shipowners, but thefleets of these shipowners do not only carry 0erman or )hinese exports and imports, indeed they
mostly carry trade between third countries.(he worlds largest trader continues to be the Cnited States, which generated %-.6' I of world
42
8/9/2019 Tsaini
44/81
8/9/2019 Tsaini
45/81
Chapter Three
Freight Rates Maret and Causable Regression
44
8/9/2019 Tsaini
46/81
Chapter ThreeFreight Rate !ar9et and Cauable Regreion
;reight "ates by definition are the amount of money that the carrier 8e.g. shipowner orcharterer or vessel operator9 charges for transporting cargo. ;reight rates can be obtained throughan agent or a shipbroker. n some cases, such as in the liner sector, notice of freight rates has
traditionally been published in newspapers. (oday, the internet is the preferred medium. Someshipbrokers also calculate, maintain and publish indices together with historical data to give anindication of how the market is performing. 1ach segment of the market 8e.g. tanker, bulk,containers etc.9 has it own characteristics and is influenced by different factors. n the bulk cargomarket, vessels are usually chartered for a specific period of time or for a particular voyage. "atesfor time charters will be different from voyage charters, with the former more focused on the longterm trend. n general, freight rates are affected by the supply of vessels and by the demand for thegoods being carried. (hus, transport services are a derived demand. (he number of competitors,the availability of alternative transport modes, and shortterm fluctuations in demand and supplywill also have an effect on prices.
7$1 The /r" 8ul9 !ar9et
(he dry bulk market, which collapsed spectacularly at the end of --7, improved in --&. (he>altic 1xchange 2ry ndex 8>29, which measures freight rates for dry bulk transported by sea,started in --& at 55* points and ended the year at *,--' points. n --7, the peak of %%,55%points was reached on % #ay, and the low of 66* points occurred on ' 2ecember. n --&, thehigh point of the year was in +ovember, with the >2 reaching ,66% points. "ates maintainedmost of their --& gains, fluctuating in the ,'-- to ,'-- point range for the first half of -%-. (hecurrent world fleet of dry bulk carriers amounts to approximately '5 million dwt, with a further'7.* million, or ' I of the fleet, on order. (he following sections describe some of the recentdevelopments in each of the five main bulk trades.n Ganuary --&, the average earnings for a modern )apesi!e were Q,--- per day, and by2ecember --&, the monthly average had risen to Q,--- per day. )omparing year on year, theaverage daily hire rate in --& e?uated to Q*',*-- per day, as opposed to Q%%6,%5' per day in--7. While --& may have been a disappointment for shipowners when compared to --7, itwas, however, a more stable year that did not offer the exceptional highs and lows that somevessels experienced in --7 with rates surpassing Q*--,--- per day only to later dip well belowQ%-,--- per day. (he declining earnings market naturally affected the price of vessels. @ fiveyearold )apesi!e vessel cost, on average, Q%*. million in --7, and Q5.* million in --&. >y;ebruary -%-, the price had lifted slightly, to Q' million.$n the (ime )harter side, estimates of rates for %month period charters 8prompt delivery9 rosesteadily during --&, albeit on the back of the significant declines experienced towards the end of--7. )apesi!e ships of --,--- dwt aged five years fetched Q%&,5-- per day at the start of --&
8against Q%',--- for the same period in --79 and had doubled by the end of the year. ;reight
45
8/9/2019 Tsaini
47/81
rates for )apesi!e ships of %5-,--- dwt aged five years started at Q%7,'-- per day in Ganuary--&, down from Q'5,--- in Ganuary --7, and ended --& at Q*,'-- per day. (he bestperforming sector, however, was y early -%-, the rate had slipped back tothe mid twenties, as concern grew about the ability of the world economy to bounce back from theglobal economic downturn, and about the increasing stockpile of iron ore in )hinese ports andrefineries.
Figure -6 8altic ;change /r" Inde; -++*,-+1+ inde; 8ae "ear 1)*5 1+++ unit
ource Baltic ;9change
7$- Si%ple Regreion Anal"i
A$ /ecription of Coal a a traded co%%odit"
)oal is referred to as a dark brown to black, organic and combustible rock made of mainly carbon,
hydrogen and oxygen, which is extracted from under the ground through mining. (his graphite like
46
8/9/2019 Tsaini
48/81
sedimentary material is used as fuel and is primary source of energy on earth. )oal is formedunder the earth4s crust from the plants and animal remains that got fossili!ed with the time. (hat iswhy in other words it is also defined as the altered remains of prehistoric vegetation that has beenconsolidated and transformed with consistent effect of heat and pressure over million of years.)oal also played an important role in industrial revolution and most of the world4s electricity isproduced using coal only.
)oal is a fossil fuel that is used for combustion and producing heat and light. )urrently, it is theprime source of electricity produced through out the world. (hough coalVs lead is being shaken bythe emergence of oil in the scenario but around -I of the electricity is still being produced usingcoal. (he solid fuel can be converted into gaseous or li?uid form of fuel such as coal gas, gasolineor diesel. @lso coke is derived from coal that is used producing coal tar, ammonia, light oils etc. thefuel is credited with the initiali!ation of the great ndustrial revolution in the %7th century.
t is estimated that there are &-& billion tons of proven coal reserves in around 5- countries of theworld. (he largest coal reserves are in Cnited States of @merica followed by "ussia and )hina. >ut)hina leaves the above two countries behind in the context of production. (he world production ofcoal hovers around -- million tons and due to the current rising trend in the production it isestimated to reach 5 billion tons by -*-. @sia has a share of around '6I in the total consumptionof coal in the world, china being the topmost consumer of coal in the world. #ost of the coal isutili!ed in the place of its production only. (he developing countries are the maBor source ofdemand for coal, as they need higher ?uantities to keep the development process continued.
Figure 6 !a2or Inter,Regional Coal Trade Flo' (-++-,-+7+ in %ill tonne.
ource" http"55www.infomine.com5publications5docs5%orld+oal/nst&''?.pdf
47
8/9/2019 Tsaini
49/81
Table -5 Top Ten Coal conu%ing countrie and their conu%ption (%ill tonne.
)hina %57
CS@ %--.&
ndia *-.
0ermany '.'
"ussia -.'
Gapan %7*.
South @frica %5*.5
8/9/2019 Tsaini
50/81
@ustralia *7,6-- *&,&-- 57,'-- 5.%5
South @frica 7,5'- - 7,5'- .
Ckraine %6,5 %5,75& *,%'* *.%
Da!akhstan 7,%'% *,%7 *%,5& .76
ra!il - %-,%%* %-,%%* -.&
0ermany %7* 6,''6 6,5*& -.6)olombia 6,*- *7% 6,6%% -.6
)anada *,5% *,%-5 6,'57 -.6
)!ech "epublic ,-& *,'7 ','' -.'
ndonesia 5- ,7 ,&67 -.'
(urkey 57 *,&-7 ,%76 -.*7
0reece - *,&-- *,&-- -.*6
Eungary %&7 *,%'& *,*'5 -.*
>angladesh .& ,&-- -.6
ulgaria ,%7* ,%75 -.Serbia -- %,7-- ,--- -.%7
(hailand - %,*' %,*' -.%
#exico 76- *'% %,%% -.%%
+orth Dorea *-- *-- 6-- -.-'
+ew Yealand ** '*7 '5% -.-'
Spain -- **- '*- -.-'
Yimbabwe '- - '- -.-'
"omania 5 & -.-'
=ene!uela 5& - 5& -.-
@ll others ,6&% ,%%% 7,7- .6*TOTA= 60*001 67+$-) )+)+36 1++
Table -* !a2or Coal ;porter (in %ill tonne.
Countr" -++7 -++6 -++5 -++3 -++0 -++* Share
@ustralia *7.% 5.6 ''.- ''.- 67.' 57.- '.6I
ndonesia %-5.7 %*%. %.- %&. %.& 7. %.-I
"ussia %.- ''.5 &7.6 %-*. %%. %%'. %-.6I
CS@ *.- 7.- '%.5 '%. 6-.6 7*.' 5.5I
)olombia '-. '6. '&. 67.* 5.' 7%.' 5.'I
)hina %-*. &'.' &*.% 7'.6 5'. 67.7 6.*I
South @frica 57.5 5.& 57.7 5'.7 5.6 67. 6.*I
)anada 5.5 7.7 *%. *%. **. *6.' *.I
Total 017$) 036$+ )73$+ 1+++$3 1+07$6 1+*0$7 1++4
8$ Bitor"
)oal as mentioned earlier, is the altered form of prehistoric vegetation transformed under severeheat and pressure under the earth4s crust. @ll this matter is believed to have started decomposing
in a period ranging from *6- to &- million years ago, which is known as the first coal age, the
49
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkeyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greecehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladeshhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#cite_note-63%23cite_note-63http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexicohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Koreahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germanyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkeyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greecehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungaryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladeshhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#cite_note-63%23cite_note-63http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexicohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Koreahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romaniahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_Chinahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada8/9/2019 Tsaini
51/81
)arboniferous period. @s a conse?uence of all the heat and pressure that affected the prehistoricvegetation for million of years under the earth4s crust, it got converted into fossil fuel.t first came into the notice of human beings in )hina where it was used in the process of smeltingcopper and casting coins in around %--- >) according to some historians. >ut the earliest everreference regarding coal was made by @ristotle in around *'- >) who called it as a charcoal likerock. @t that time, coal had limited number of uses and was only used for mining purposes. >utwith time, and development of technology, the new and improved uses of coal were discovered. t
took a long time for coal to gain its current reputation. n the %7th and %&th century, during the timeof industrial revolution, the demand for coal started to rise. (he most important invention in thepages of history, invention of steam engine in %56&, could not have been possible without coal.(he concept of electricity generation from coal developed in %&th century when it was used toproduce gas for the gaslights in many cities. (his concept spread all around the globe and the timewasn4t too far when the first practical coal electric generating station was set up in +ew Hork in%77, developed by (homas 1dison.
"ecently in around %&6-s, oil took over the lead from coal as the source of primary energy but stillcoal plays an important role contributing to around *I of the total energy needs of the world.
C$ Central Appalachian Coal
(he maBor commodity exchange where the future contracts of coal are traded is the +ew Hork#ercantile 1xchange8+H#1U9.
C.S. coal exports, chiefly )entral @ppalachian bituminous, make up a significant percentage of theworld export market and are a relevant factor in world coal prices. >ecause coal is a bulkcommodity, transportation is an important aspect of its price and availability. n response todramatic changes in both electric and coal industry practices, the +ew Hork #ercantile 1xchange8+H#1U9 after conferring with coal producers and consumers, sought and received regulatoryapproval to offer coal futures and options contracts. $n Guly %, --%, +H#1U began trading)entral @ppalachian )oal futures under the )@
8/9/2019 Tsaini
52/81
+onutility industrial coal users, such as steel mills, can use futures to lock in their own coalsupply costs.
nternational coal trading companies can use futures to hedge their export or import prices.
8/9/2019 Tsaini
53/81
Graph 1 Capp #rice 7/ =ine (Chronological /ata ued for Si%ple Regreion Anal"i.
52
)app prices
*2 Se?uential 0raph
workbook % %-vK%'c
%%%,%*%.%'%6%5%7%&%%-%%%%%,%
Capp
'-
6-
5-
7-
&-
%--
8/9/2019 Tsaini
54/81
8/9/2019 Tsaini
55/81
Graph 7 8CI #rice =ine (Chronological /ata ued for Si%ple Regreion Anal"i.
7$7 Cauable Regreion Anal"i bet'een 8CI and Coal #rice
Finear regression is a method of finding the linear e?uation that comes closest to fitting a collectionof data points. Simple linear regression is the most commonly used method. #ore specifically,when conducting simple linear regression analysis we use the values from an existing data set ofmeasurements of two variables U and H, to develop a model that predicts the values of thedependent variable H for given values of U.
H Z m U R b
where
m Z Slope
b Z ntercept
;or the purpose of this paper we would like to test the hypothesis that )app prices affect O and ifso to what extent O the >) prices. (hus:
ndependent variable U: )app2ependent variable H : >)
54
Fine )
workbook % %-vK%'c
%
6
%%
%6
%
6
*%
*6
.%
.6
'%
'6
6%
66
5%
56
7%
76
&%
&6
%-%
%-6
%%%
%%6
%%
%6
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
8/9/2019 Tsaini
56/81
Table -) 8CI and Capp price (Chronological /ata ued for Si%ple Regreion Anal"i.
Ober&ation
/ate 8CI (Y. Capp (.
% %/-'/-7 75%.-- 7&.7
%/%/-7 %,**%.-- 7%.''
* %/%&/-7 %,*.-- 7%.''
-%/-/-& %,*6%.-- 7-.7'
' -%/-&/-& %,57.-- 56.7
6 -%/%6/-& %,56-.-- 66.'
5 -%/*/-& %,&*&.-- 66.'
7 -%/*-/-& %,&7%.-- 66.'
& -/-6/-& ,&&&.-- 66.'
%- -/%*/-& *,**'.-- 67.
%% -/-/-& *,567.-- 67.
% -/5/-& ,&6*.-- 67.
%* -*/-6/-& ,7*&.-- 67.
% -*/%*/-& ,'.-- 67.
%' -*/-/-& ,%&5.-- 67.
%6 -*/5/-& ,-&.-- 67.&'
%5 -/-*/-& %,&6.-- 67.&'
%7 -/%-/-& ,-.-- 67.&'
%& -/%5/-& ,%-.-- 67.&'
- -//-& ,&.-- 67.&'
% -'/-%/-& ,*56.-- 67.&'
-'/-7/-& ,&6*.-- 67.&'
* -'/%'/-& *,%--.-- 67.&'
-'//-& ,**.-- *.'
' -'/&/-& 6,%'.-- '.'
6 -6/-'/-& 6,7%.-- '.'
5 -6/%/-& 6,5%'.-- 7
7 -6/%&/-& 5,&7-.-- 7
& -6/6/-& 5,%--.-- 7
*- -5/-/-& 6,77.-- '-.-'
*% -5/%-/-& ,7.-- '.*
* -5/%5/-& ',&'5.-- '.*
** -5//-& ',%5-.-- '.*
* -5/*%/-& ',*7'.-- '.*
*' -7/-5/-& ,.-- '.*
55
8/9/2019 Tsaini
57/81
*6 -7/%/-& ,5-7.-- '.*
*5 -7/%/-& ,-*-.-- '.*
*7 -7/7/-& *,&6.-- '.*
*& -&/-/-& *,6'%.-- '.*
- -&/%%/-& *,'*&.-- '.*
% -&/%7/-& *,--7.-- '.*
-&/'/-& ,75.-- '.*
* %-/-/-& *,-6-.-- '.*
%-/-&/-& ,%-5.-- '6.%'
' %-/*/-& ,55.-- '6.%'
6 %-/*-/-& ',-5.-- ''.6'
5 %%/-6/-& ',7%.-- ''.6'
7 %%/%*/-& 5,%7*.-- ''.6'
& %%/-/-& 5,'.-- '.%'
'- %%/'/-& 6,&7.-- '.%'
'% %/-/-& 6,6''.-- '.%'
' %/%%/-& ',%&*.-- '.%'
'* %/%7/-& ,'66.-- '.%'
' %/*%/-& ,---.-- '5.
'' -%/-7/%- *,5**.-- '5.&'
'6 -%/%'/%- ,*5'.-- '5.&'
'5 -%//%- ,%6%.-- '5.&'
'7 -%/&/%- *,&.-- '5.&'
'& -/-'/%- *,5.-- '5.&'
6- -/%/%- *,.-- '7.&'
6% -/%&/%- *,'%5.-- '7.&'
6 -/6/%- *,%5.-- '7.&'
6* -*/-'/%- *,&*.-- '7.&'
6 -*/%/%- ,*7.-- '5.6'
6' -*/%&/%- *,'.-- '5.6'66 -*/6/%- *,.-- 6%.%'
65 -/-%/%- *,&.-- 6%.%'
67 -/-&/%- ,&7.-- 6%.%'
6& -/%6/%- *,-5%.-- 6%.%'
5- -/*/%- *,--.-- 6%.%'
5% -/*-/%- *,&*6.-- 6%.%'
5 -'/-5/%- ,-%.-- 6%.%'
5* -'/%/%- ,7-.-- 6.6
56
8/9/2019 Tsaini
58/81
5 -'/%/%- ,*%5.-- 6.6
5' -'/7/%- ',%5.-- 6.6
56 -6/-/%- ',%%-.-- 6.6
55 -6/%%/%- ,56.-- 6.6
57 -6/%7/%- *,%*.-- 6.6
5& -6/'/%- ,5%5.-- 6.6
7- -5/-/%- ,65.-- 66.-'
7% -5/-&/%- ,%-.-- 66.-'
7 -5/%6/%- %,656.-- 66.-'
7* -5/*/%- %,5-7.-- 65.7'
7 -5/*-/%- %,&.-- 65.7'
7' -7/-6/%- ,%&.-- 65.7'
76 -7/%*/%- *,%-.-- 65.7'
75 -7/-/%- *,'57.-- 65.7'
77 -7/5/%- *,&.-- 6&.'
7& -&/-*/%- *,&*5.-- 6&.'
&- -&/%-/%- ,-%&.-- 6&.'
&% -&/%5/%- *,7%.-- 6&.'
& -&//%- *,%%.-- 6&.'
&* %-/-%/%- *,%&.-- 5%
& %-/-7/%- ,-56.-- 5%
&' %-/%'/%- ,*'.-- 5%.'
&6 %-//%- ,*5*.-- 5%.%'
&5 %-/&/%- ,6.-- 5%.%'
&7 %%/-'/%- *,&&.-- 5%.%'
&& %%/%/%- *,6%.-- 5%.%'
%-- %%/%&/%- *,&6.-- 5%.%'
%-% %%/6/%- *,**.-- 5%.%'
%- %-/-*/%- ,&7*.-- 5%.%'
%-* %/%-/%- ,6&.-- 5%.%'%- %/%5/%- ,5*.-- 5%.%'
%-' %/*%/%- ,7'.-- 5.5'
%-6 -%/-5/%% %,76'.-- 55.
%-5 -%/%/%% %,'&'.-- 55.
%-7 -%/%/%% %,''6.-- 55.5
%-& -%/7/%% %,*67.-- 55.5
%%- -/-/%% %,&&.-- 55.5
%%% -/%7/%% %,.-- 55.5
57
8/9/2019 Tsaini
59/81
%% -/'/%% %,*%'.-- 55.5
%%* -*/-/%% %,5.-- 55.5
%% -*/%%/%% %,7&%.-- 55.5
%%' -*/%7/%% %,675.-- 55.5
%%6 -/-%/%% %,5&.-- 57.7'
%%5 -/-7/%% %,6%.-- 57.7'
%%7 -/%'/%% %,'6.-- 57.7'
%%& -//%% %,'.-- 57.7'
%- -/&/%% %,'5-.-- 57.7'
%% -'/-6/%% %,'66.-- 57.7'
% -'/%*/%% %,&.-- 57.7'
%* -'/-/%% %,6**.-- 57.7'
% -'/5/%% %,7%.-- 57.7'
%' -6/-*/%% %,&*&.-- 57,7'
@fter running a simple regression analysis we have the following output:
(he "egression 1?uation is:
H Z %7,-%7 U R %%57,765
Slope, m Z %7,-%7
ntercept, b Z %%57,765
"s?uared Z 6*,7 I
0iven the above results we could state that "s?uared is ?uite satisfactory as it literally shows that>) values affect the prices of the )entral @ppalachian )oal 6*,7I. ;urthermore, it is a ?uite safeproBection margin especially when dealing with both shipping and trading industry which areinfluenced by ?uite a few factors. Eaving said that, one can proBect the )app prices for the comingweek and suddenly a strike by port workers or a natural disaster in a certain importing or exportingarea can occur and the actual prices will be significantly differented than the expected ones.+evertheless, this e?uation shows that there is a ?uite steady relationship between the prices of
the >ci and )app.
58
8/9/2019 Tsaini
60/81
Graph 6 Scatterplot 8CI againt Capp
59
Scatterplot of >) against )app
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z %%5.7,7656/%7,-%7'Kx
.- '- 6- 5- 7- &- %--
)app
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
8/9/2019 Tsaini
61/81
Graph 5 Scatterplot 8CI againt Capp 'ith lipe at )54 range
60
Scatterplot of >) against )app
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z %%5.7,7656/%7,-%7'Kx
.- '- 6- 5- 7- &- %--
)app
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
)app:>): y Z %%5.7,7656 / %7,-%7'KxA rZ -,6*55
8/9/2019 Tsaini
62/81
Graph 3 Scatterplot 8CI againt Capp 'ith #olar Coordinate S"te%
7$6 Si%ple Regreion Anal"i bet'een 8CI and Capeize dead'eight capacit"
n Shipping its widely known and perceived that the deadweight carrying capacity of the vesselsplays a significant role to the freight market. @t this stage, we will try here to test a second variable:the )apesi!e deadweight capacity. ;or this purpose, we take the maximum deadweight values ofthe )apesi!e existing fleet plus the new deliveries at each given time. (hus we have:
ndependent variable U: )22ependent variable H : >)
61
Scatterplot of >) against )app
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z %%5.7,7656/%7,-%7'Kx
-
%---
,---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
.-
'-6-
5-
7- &-
)a
pp
)app:>): y Z %%5.7,7656 / %7,-%7'KxA rZ -,6*55
8/9/2019 Tsaini
63/81
Table 7+ 8CI and C/ price (Chronological /ata ued for Si%ple Regreion Anal"i.
ober&ation
/ate 8CI (Y. C/(.
% %/-'/-7 75% %*-.-
%/%/-7 %,**%.-- %*%.'
* %/%&/-7 %,*.-- %*%.'
-%/-/-& %,*6%.-- %*.-
' -%/-&/-& %,57.-- %*.-
6 -%/%6/-& %,56-.-- %*.-
5 -%/*/-& %,&*&.-- %*.-
7 -%/*-/-& %,&7%.-- %*.*
& -/-6/-& ,&&&.-- %*.*
%- -/%*/-& *,**'.-- %*.*
%% -/-/-& *,567.-- %*.*
% -/5/-& ,&6*.-- %'.7
%* -*/-6/-& ,7*&.-- %'.7
% -*/%*/-& ,'.-- %'.7
%' -*/-/-& ,%&5.-- %'.7
%6 -*/5/-& ,-&.-- %5.6
%5 -/-*/-& %,&6.-- %5.6
%7 -/%-/-& ,-.-- %5.6%& -/%5/-& ,%-.-- %5.6
- -//-& ,&.-- %7.&
% -'/-%/-& ,*56.-- %7.&
-'/-7/-& ,&6*.-- %7.&
* -'/%'/-& *,%--.-- %7.&
-'//-& ,**.-- %7.&
' -'/&/-& 6,%'.-- %'-.
6 -6/-'/-& 6,7%.-- %'-.5 -6/%/-& 6,5%'.-- %'-.
7 -6/%&/-& 5,&7-.-- %'-.
& -6/6/-& 5,%--.-- %'*.-
*- -5/-/-& 6,77.-- %'*.-
*% -5/%-/-& ,7.-- %'*.-
* -5/%5/-& ',&'5.-- %'*.-
** -5//-& ',%5-.-- %'*.-
* -5/*%/-& ',*7'.-- %''.6
62
8/9/2019 Tsaini
64/81
*' -7/-5/-& ,.-- %''.6
*6 -7/%/-& ,5-7.-- %''.6
*5 -7/%/-& ,-*-.-- %''.6
*7 -7/7/-& *,&6.-- %'7.
*& -&/-/-& *,6'%.-- %'7.
- -&/%%/-& *,'*&.-- %'7.
% -&/%7/-& *,--7.-- %'7.
-&/'/-& ,75.-- %6%.
* %-/-/-& *,-6-.-- %6%.
%-/-&/-& ,%-5.-- %6%.
' %-/*/-& ,55.-- %6%.
6 %-/*-/-& ',-5.-- %6.
5 %%/-6/-& ',7%.-- %6.
7 %%/%*/-& 5,%7*.-- %6.
& %%/-/-& 5,'.-- %6.
'- %%/'/-& 6,&7.-- %66.7
'% %/-/-& 6,6''.-- %66.7
' %/%%/-& ',%&*.-- %66.7
'* %/%7/-& ,'66.-- %66.7
' %/*%/-& ,---.-- %66.7
'' -%/-7/%- *,5**.-- %6&.&
'6 -%/%'/%- ,*5'.-- %6&.&
'5 -%//%- ,%6%.-- %6&.&
'7 -%/&/%- *,&.-- %5.%
'& -/-'/%- *,5.-- %5.%
6- -/%/%- *,.-- %5.%
6% -/%&/%- *,'%5.-- %5.%
6 -/6/%- *,%5.-- %5.7
6* -*/-'/%- *,&*.-- %5.7
6 -*/%/%- ,*7.-- %5.76' -*/%&/%- *,'.-- %5.7
66 -*/6/%- *,.-- %57.6
65 -/-%/%- *,&.-- %57.6
67 -/-&/%- ,&7.-- %57.6
6& -/%6/%- *,-5%.-- %57.6
5- -/*/%- *,--.-- %57.6
5% -/*-/%- *,&*6.-- %57.6
5 -'/-5/%- ,-%.-- %57.6
63
8/9/2019 Tsaini
65/81
5* -'/%/%- ,7-.-- %7%.'
5 -'/%/%- ,*%5.-- %7%.'
5' -'/7/%- ',%5.-- %7%.'
56 -6/-/%- ',%%-.-- %7.-
55 -6/%%/%- ,56.-- %7.-
57 -6/%7/%- *,%*.-- %7.-
5& -6/'/%- ,5%5.-- %7.-
7- -5/-/%- ,65.-- %7.-
7% -5/-&/%- ,%-.-- %7.-
7 -5/%6/%- %,656.-- %7.-
7* -5/*/%- %,5-7.-- %7.-
7 -5/*-/%- %,&.-- %7.-
7' -7/-6/%- ,%&.-- %7.-
76 -7/%*/%- *,%-.-- %&%.-
75 -7/-/%- *,'57.-- %&%.-
77 -7/5/%- *,&.-- %&%.-
7& -&/-*/%- *,&*5.-- %&%.-
&- -&/%-/%- ,-%&.-- %&%.-
&% -&/%5/%- *,7%.-- %&%.-
& -&//%- *,%%.-- %&%.-
&* %-/-%/%- *,%&.-- %&%.-
& %-/-7/%- ,-56.-- %&%.-
&' %-/%'/%- ,*'.-- %&%.-
&6 %-//%- ,*5*.-- %&%.-
&5 %-/&/%- ,6.-- %&%.-
&7 %%/-'/%- *,&&.-- %&%.-
&& %%/%/%- *,6%.-- %&%.-
%-- %%/%&/%- *,&6.-- %&%.-
%-% %%/6/%- *,**.-- %&&.-
%- %-/-*/%- ,&7*.-- %&&.-%-* %/%-/%- ,6&.-- %&&.-
%- %/%5/%- ,5*.-- %&&.-
%-' %/*%/%- ,7'.-- %&&.-
%-6 -%/-5/%% %,76'.-- %&&.-
%-5 -%/%/%% %,'&'.-- -7.
%-7 -%/%/%% %,''6.-- -7.
%-& -%/7/%% %,*67.-- -7.
%%- -/-/%% %,&&.-- -7.
64
8/9/2019 Tsaini
66/81
%%% -/%7/%% %,.-- -7.
%% -/'/%% %,*%'.-- -7.
%%* -*/-/%% %,5.-- -7.
%% -*/%%/%% %,7&%.-- -7.
%%' -*/%7/%% %,675.-- -7.
%%6 -/-%/%% %,5&.-- -7.
%%5 -/-7/%% %,6%.-- %'.-
%%7 -/%'/%% %,'6.-- %'.-
%%& -//%% %,'.-- %'.-
%- -/&/%% %,'5-.-- %'.-
%% -'/-6/%% %,'66.-- %'.-
% -'/%*/%% %,&.-- %'.-
%* -'/-/%% %,6**.-- %'.-
% -'/5/%% %,7%.-- %'.-
%' -6/-*/%% %,&*&.-- %'.-
@fter running a simple regression analysis we have the following output:
(he "egression 1?uation is:
H Z ,*' U R 5&,6*%
Slope, m Z ,*'ntercept, b Z 5&,6*%
"s?uared Z %-,&5 I
(he value of the "s?uared tells us that deadweight capacity can explain the >) prices for afurther %-,&5 I. (his is a low percentage but it still explains almost %/* of the remaining *6,I.
65
8/9/2019 Tsaini
67/81
Graph 0 Scatterplot 8CI againt C/
66
Scatterplot of >) against )2
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z 5&.,6*%./,*'%&Kx
%- %*- %.- %'- %6- %5- %7- %&- -- %- -
)2
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>
)
)2:>): y Z 5&.,6*%. / ,*'%&KxA rZ -,%-&7
8/9/2019 Tsaini
68/81
Graph * Scatterplot 8CI againt C/ 'ith lipe at )54 range
67
Scatterplot of >) against )2
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z 5&.,6*%./,*'%&Kx
%- %*- %.- %'- %6- %5- %7- %&- -- %- -
)2
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>
)
)2:>): y Z 5&.,6*%. / ,*'%&KxA rZ -,%-&7
8/9/2019 Tsaini
69/81
Graph ) Scatterplot 8CI againt C/ 'ith #olar Coordinate S"te%
7$5 Si%ple Regreion Anal"i bet'een 8CI and reported Capeize dead'eightcapacit"
0iven the above results, we decide to take our research one step further and test the >) againsanother variable. ;or this reason we have collected data of the capesi!e deadweight that actuallyengaged its carrying capacity in trading coal or ore. (hese data have been gathered throughofficial reports so we call our variable reported capesi!e deadweight. (hus we have:
ndependent variable U: >)2ependent variable H : )2"
Table 71 8CI and C/R price (Chronological /ata ued for Si%ple Regreion Anal"i.
+observations
2ate >) 8H9 )2" 8U9
% %/-'/-7 75% %--.-
%/%/-7 %,**%.-- 7-.-
68
Scatterplot of >) against )2
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z 5&.,6*%./,*'%&Kx
-
%---
,---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
%-
%*-
%.-%'-
%6-
%5-
%7-
%&- --
%-
)2
)2:>): y Z 5&.,6*%. / ,*'%&KxA rZ -,%-&7
8/9/2019 Tsaini
70/81
* %/%&/-7 %,*.-- %--.-
-%/-/-& %,*6%.-- %-.-
' -%/-&/-& %,57.-- %%-.-
6 -%/%6/-& %,56-.-- &-.-
5 -%/*/-& %,&*&.-- &-.-
7 -%/*-/-& %,&7%.-- 77.-
& -/-6/-& ,&&&.-- %**.-
%- -/%*/-& *,**'.-- %*.-
%% -/-/-& *,567.-- %'.-
% -/5/-& ,&6*.-- %-.-
%* -*/-6/-& ,7*&.-- %'.-
% -*/%*/-& ,'.-- %-.-
%' -*/-/-& ,%&5.-- %'.-
%6 -*/5/-& ,-&.-- %-.-
%5 -/-*/-& %,&6.-- %-.-
%7 -/%-/-& ,-.-- %-.-
%& -/%5/-& ,%-.-- %%'.-
- -//-& ,&.-- %*-.-
% -'/-%/-& ,*56.-- %-.-
-'/-7/-& ,&6*.-- %*-.-
* -'/%'/-& *,%--.-- %-.-
-'//-& ,**.-- %'-.-
' -'/&/-& 6,%'.-- %'-.-
6 -6/-'/-& 6,7%.-- %'-.-
5 -6/%/-& 6,5%'.-- %'-.-
7 -6/%&/-& 5,&7-.-- %'-.-
& -6/6/-& 5,%--.-- %-.-
*- -5/-/-& 6,77.-- %*-.-
*% -5/%-/-& ,7.-- %*'.-
* -5/%5/-& ',&'5.-- %'-.-** -5//-& ',%5-.-- %-.-
* -5/*%/-& ',*7'.-- %'.-
*' -7/-5/-& ,.-- %'.-
*6 -7/%/-& ,5-7.-- %'*.-
*5 -7/%/-& ,-*-.-- %'*.-
*7 -7/7/-& *,&6.-- %'.-
*& -&/-/-& *,6'%.-- %-.-
- -&/%%/-& *,'*&.-- %*-.-
69
8/9/2019 Tsaini
71/81
% -&/%7/-& *,--7.-- %%-.-
-&/'/-& ,75.-- %--.-
* %-/-/-& *,-6-.-- %--.-
%-/-&/-& ,%-5.-- %*-.-
' %-/*/-& ,55.-- %'-.-
6 %-/*-/-& ',-5.-- %6-.-
5 %%/-6/-& ',7%.-- %6-.-
7 %%/%*/-& 5,%7*.-- %6-.-
& %%/-/-& 5,'.-- %6.-
'- %%/'/-& 6,&7.-- %'-.-
'% %/-/-& 6,6''.-- %'.-
' %/%%/-& ',%&*.-- %*-.-
'* %/%7/-& ,'66.-- %*.-
' %/*%/-& ,---.-- %%-.-
'' -%/-7/%- *,5**.-- %--.-
'6 -%/%'/%- ,*5'.-- %-.-
'5 -%//%- ,%6%.-- %%%.-
'7 -%/&/%- *,&.-- %*-.-
'& -/-'/%- *,5.-- %'-.-
6- -/%/%- *,.-- %6-.-
6% -/%&/%- *,'%5.-- %5.-
6 -/6/%- *,%5.-- %6-.-
6* -*/-'/%- *,&*.-- %'-.-
6 -*/%/%- ,*7.-- %-.-
6' -*/%&/%- *,'.-- %%-.-
66 -*/6/%- * %5-.-
65 -/-%/%- *,&.-- %5.-
67 -/-&/%- ,&7.-- %55.-
6& -/%6/%- *,-5%.-- %6'.-
5- -/*/%- *,--.-- %6-.-5% -/*-/%- *,&*6.-- %6%.-
5 -'/-5/%- ,-%.-- %6%.-
5* -'/%/%- ,7-.-- %6.-
5 -'/%/%- ,*%5.-- %6'.-
5' -'/7/%- ',%5.-- %5-.-
56 -6/-/%- ',%%-.-- %5'.-
55 -6/%%/%- ,56.-- %5-.-
57 -6/%7/%- *,%*.-- %6-.-
70
8/9/2019 Tsaini
72/81
5& -6/'/%- ,5%5.-- %6'.-
7- -5/-/%- ,65.-- %6'.-
7% -5/-&/%- ,%-.-- %6.-
7 -5/%6/%- %,656.-- %6.-
7* -5/*/%- %,5-7.-- %7-.-
7 -5/*-/%- %,&.-- %6'.-
7' -7/-6/%- ,%&.-- %6%.-
76 -7/%*/%- *,%-.-- %''.-
75 -7/-/%- *,'57.-- %'-.-
77 -7/5/%- *,&.-- %5-.-
7& -&/-*/%- *,&*5.-- %5'.-
&- -&/%-/%- ,-%&.-- %7-.-
&% -&/%5/%- *,7%.-- %6'.-
& -&//%- *,%%.-- %66.-
&* %-/-%/%- *,%&.-- %66.-
& %-/-7/%- ,-56.-- %66.-
&' %-/%'/%- ,*'.-- %5'.-
&6 %-//%- ,*5*.-- %57.-
&5 %-/&/%- ,6.-- %'-.-
&7 %%/-'/%- *,&&.-- %''.-
&& %%/%/%- *,6%.-- %'6.-
%-- %%/%&/%- *,&6.-- %-.-
%-% %%/6/%- *,**.-- %''.-
%- %-/-*/%- ,&7*.-- %6-.-
%-* %/%-/%- ,6&.-- %6'.-
%- %/%5/%- ,5*.-- %5'.-
%-' %/*%/%- ,7'.-- %'-.-
%-6 -%/-5/%% %,76'.-- %6'.-
%-5 -%/%/%% %,'&'.-- %*'.-
%-7 -%/%/%% %,''6.-- %-.-%-& -%/7/%% %,*67.-- %'.-
%%- -/-/%% %,&&.-- %-.-
%%% -/%7/%% %,.-- %*-.-
%% -/'/%% %,*%'.-- %7.-
%%* -*/-/%% %,5.-- %-.-
%% -*/%%/%% %,7&%.-- %-.-
%%' -*/%7/%% %,675.-- %%'.-
%%6 -/-%/%% %,5&.-- %--.-
71
8/9/2019 Tsaini
73/81
%%5 -/-7/%% %,6%.-- %--.-
%%7 -/%'/%% %,'6.-- %--.-
%%& -//%% %,'.-- %--.-
%- -/&/%% %,'5-.-- %-'.-
%% -'/-6/%% %,'66.-- %%-.-
% -'/%*/%% %,&.-- %%'.-
%* -'/-/%% %,6**.-- %--.-
% -'/5/%% %,7%.-- %*-.-
%' -6/-*/%% %,&*&.-- %%-.-
@fter running a simple regression analysis we have the following output:
(he "egression 1?uation is:
H Z %%,%-* R ',-7 U
Slope, m Z ',-7ntercept, b Z %%,%-*
"s?uared Z %',& I
(he value of the "s?uared tells us that deadweight capacity can explain the >) prices for afurther %',& I. (his is a low percentage but it still explains almost more than half of the remaining',* I.
72
8/9/2019 Tsaini
74/81
Graph 1+ Scatterplot 8CI againt C/R
73
Scatterplot of >) against )2"
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z /%%,%-**R',-7.'Kx
6- 7- %-- %- %.- %6- %7- --
)2"
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
)2":>): y Z /%%,%-** R ',-7.'KxA rZ -,%'.&
8/9/2019 Tsaini
75/81
Graph 11 Scatterplot 8CI againt C/ 'ith lipe at )54 range
74
Scatterplot of >) against )2"
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z /%%,%-**R',-7.'Kx
6- 7- %-- %- %.- %6- %7- --
)2"
-
%---
---
*---
.---
'---
6---
5---
7---
&---
>)
)2":>): y Z /%%,%-** R ',-7.'KxA rZ -,%'.&
8/9/2019 Tsaini
76/81
Graph 1- Scatterplot 8CI againt C/ 'ith #olar Coordinate S"te%
7$3 The Tan9er !ar9et
--& was a particularly bleak year for tanker freight rates. "ates started the year in a gentledecline which continued until the middle of the year, after which they began to curve upwards. >ythe end of the year, tanker freight rates were at much the same level as at the beginning of theyear. ;or most other sectors, freight rates were more positive, and the end ofyear data showedsigns of a possible recovery in the global economy. n general, freight rates in all trading routesdeclined.
75
Scatterplot of >) against )2"
workbook % %-vK%'c
>) Z /%%,%-**R',-7.'Kx
-
%--
-
,--
-
*--
-
.--
-
'--
-
6--
-
5--
-
7--
-
&--
-
>)
6-
7-
%--
%-
%.-
%6-
%7-
)2"
)2":>): y Z /%%,%-** R ',-7.'KxA rZ -,%'.&
8/9/2019 Tsaini
77/81
Table 7- !onthl" Tan9er Freight Indice (WorldScale. -++*,-+1+
ource" *!+T$ secretariat, based upon information in =loyds hipping ;conomist (a trade Cournal that specializes in maritimerelatedmarket data and reports),
(he tanker period charter gives a good indication of how cargo owners and shipowners perceivethe market for over the next few years. When rates are low, charterers prefer long charters, andshipowners the opposite. When rates are high, shipowners prefer long charters, and charterers theopposite. n --&, total chartering activity increased by Bust over a million dwt, to 7.-6 milliondwt. #arch --& was the month of least activity, with less than % million dwt being chartered, whileGune was the most active chartering period, with .76 million dwt chartered.@bout * I of total chartering activity in --& was made up of longterm charters of months ormore, down from *6 I in --7 and 6 I in --5. (his shows that charterers and shipowners areless inclined to engaging in longer contracts, a sign that the market is at a low point. (he next mostactive sector for time chartering was for the period of less than six months 85 I9, and then for the
76
8/9/2019 Tsaini
78/81
period of between one and two years 8' I9. 1stimated tanker oneyear time charter rates for afiveyearold ship of 7-,--- dwt went from Q'',--- per day in Ganuary --& to Q&,*-- per dayby +ovember --&. (here was little change at the beginning of -%-, with ;ebruarys rate standingat Q*%,5-- per day.n summary, the global financial crisis has brought severe disruption to the tanker market, asreduced demand for transport services has combined with the increased supply of newly builtvessels and pushed freight rates even lower. n Gune -%-, one tanker owner signaled its intention
to reduce the speed of its vessels from %6.' knots to %% knots.% Slow steaming avoids the need toenter ships into a more permanent layup position which can be costly to position and maintain,and to restart when conditions improve.
7$0 Container !ar9et
0erman shipowners dominate global liner capacity, with Eamburg brokers controlling about 5' percent of the container ship charter tonnage. (heir ships, in many cases, are chartered by the largeliner companies, which, together with their own fleets of vessels, operate an extended service 8seechapter two for more details on liner shipping companies9.
;or example, )#@ )0#s fleet consisted of about 65 per cent charteredin tonnage in --&, and@elow tables show the allinclusive freight rates on the three main containeri!ed routes 8
8/9/2019 Tsaini
79/81
1urope in the first half.n fact, the Cnited StatesO1urope route proved to be the sturdiest over --&, while rates from @siato the Cnited States suffered the biggest falls. Finer shippers attempted to push freight rates up, byslow steaming and by laying up vessels. (he sailing time from some northern 1uropean ports to@sia increased to a record high of over - days.*7 (his helped push base freight rates from @sia to1urope from Q6-- in $ctober --& to Q&--OQ%--- by the end of the year.
7$0$- Container leaing
Cnlike other maritime transport sectors, where the unit of carriage is included in the packagedproduct 8e.g. a pallet of rice9, container cargo also creates a derived demand for containers, about- per cent of which are leased from dedicated container leasing companies 8lessors9. )ontainerleasing rates fell sharply at the end of --7, and continued to decline throughout --&. @t the startof --&, the daily hire rate for a fiveyear option on a standard (1C was Q-.6' and by the end ofthe year this had declined to Q-.6. (he daily rate for a fortyfoot e?uivalent unit 8;1C9 highcubeunit experienced a similar decline, starting the year at Q%.%- and falling to Q%.-' by the fourth?uarter.
(he average cash investment return in --& remained at %%.' per cent for standard twentyfootcontainers and %.' per cent for fortyfoot highcube units. 2emand for rental e?uipment graduallyimproved over --&, perhaps helped by the credit crisis as bank lending constraints placed agreater emphasis on the need for companies to curtail spending.(he world container fleet, comprising %-. million (1Cs owned by lessors and %6.& million (1Csowned by sea carriers, contracted in --& by more than ' per cent compared to its --7 level,registering 5.% million (1Cs in --&.n summary, --& was a bleak year for freight rates in the tanker, maBor dry bulk and liner sectors.(he deepening of the global financial crisis severely affected demand for all types of commoditiesand goods. @ll sectors experienced a tumultuous year, with freight rates for many ships at aroundone ?uarter of the previous years rates. @lthough some signs of recovery were seen towards the
end of --&, freight rates for -%- and beyond remain uncertain as doubts surround the ability ofindustry and governments to sustain a recovery on the back of excess tonnage ordered at the peakof the market. Shipowners adopted a number of measures that included slow steaming, vessel layups and ship demolition to combat the decline in demand and to turn their fortunes around. (heship demolition market also collapsed in --&. (he sum offered to shipowners for demolishingships remained low, with the price of steel in the ;ar 1ast at around Q%7' per light displacementton 8ldt9 in #arch --&, compared to more than Q5-- in the previous year. Eowever, rates gentlyclimbed to Q-- in early -%-. 2emolition rates in South @sia 8
8/9/2019 Tsaini
80/81
Table 77 Container Ship Ti%e Charter Rate (dollar per 16,ton lot
8/9/2019 Tsaini
81/81
ource" +ompiled by the *!+T$ secretariat, from the 0amburg /nde9 produced by the 0amburg hipbrokers ssociation,available at http"55www.vhss.deD and from hipping tatistics and arket -eview
Figure 3 -++0,-+1+ (indice bae 1$+++ October -++0.
