US Finance AA 99 1.8 -7 -71US Corp BBB 182 -1.0 -15 -69
CDN & US 10 YR SPREADS
Province QuebecProvince OntarioCanada Corp BBB
Sources: Bloomberg & FTSE TMX
The Week at a Glance
« NBF Economic
& Strategy Group
WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH - WEEK IN REVIEW
CANADA - The consumer price index rose 0.4% in May, allowing the year-on-year inflation rate to decline to 1.5% from 1.7%. In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI rose 0.2% as 6 subcomponents experienced gains. Transportation (+0.6%), clothing & footwear (+0.6%), household operations (+0.3%), alcohol/tobacco (+0.2%), shelter (+0.1%) and recreation (+0.1%) experienced the strongest gains while prices were flat for healthcare and declining for food (-0.5%). The core CPI, which excludes eight of the most volatile items, was up 0.3%, which allowed the year-on-year core inflation rate to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%. In seasonally-adjusted terms, core CPI was up 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms for May. The Canadian CPI data for May was weaker than expected for the headline. As expected, gasoline prices rose at a pace above historical norms but food inflation was significantly down perhaps reflecting the appreciation of the CAD since January’s low. Core inflation remains strong with the 3-month annualized change accelerating to 2.9%, its strongest pace in a year. Keep in mind that there is a significant lag for the effect of a weaker currency (via import prices) on some components of the CPI. We see core inflation decelerating to 1.9% in 2016 from 2.2% last year. Again in April, manufacturing shipments rose 1.0% to recoup the ground lost in March. However, the gain was not generalized, with sales increasing in only 10 of 21 industries, representing 55% of total shipments. The major positive contributors were transportation equipment (+2.1%), primary metals (+3.9%), and petroleum and coal products (+8.3%). Unfilled orders fell for a third consecutive month (-0.4%) to their lowest level since December 2014. Inventories declined in 15 industries, but this was partially offset by increases in petroleum and coal products (+0.5%) and primary metals (+2.0%). As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio dropped from 1.43 to 1.41. In real terms, shipments grew 1.4%. However, the growth boost from factories is not likely to compensate for the drag from Alberta’s wildfires in the second quarter. We remain of a mind that Canada’s economy contracted in Q2 after registering above-potential growth in Q1. The Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM rose 1.8% in May thanks to monthly gains in all of the 11 regions covered. Vancouver led the pack with a monthly advance in excess of 2% for a fourth month in a row. On a y/y basis, the national index was up 9.0%, its largest 12-month gain since September 2010. Vancouver (+21.7%, the largest increase since November 2006), Hamilton (+13.8%), Victoria (+10.8%) and Toronto (+10.6%) all topped the national average. These massive gains contrasted sharply with the situation in the other regions. Indeed, prices barely budged in Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.4%) and Montreal (+0.3%), were flat in Winnipeg, and sank in Calgary (-0.2%), Edmonton (-1.7%), Quebec City (-3.6%) and Halifax (-4.7%). In short, the dichotomy in the Canadian home resale market persists. Vancouver is in a league of its own as prices have shot up more than 20% over the past 12 months, 25.1% and 13.9%, respectively, in the case of single-family homes and condos. In Toronto, price growth used to be heavily concentrated in the low-rise residential buildings segment where supply was restricted by land availability. However, with apartments selling at a record pace since the beginning of the year, condo prices have been rising in sync with those of other types of dwellings lately. In May, existing-home sales were down 2.8% from a record high in April. The number of newly listed homes fell 3.2% m/m, lifting the ratio of sales to new listings to 64.8%, its highest reading since October 2009. There were 4.7 months of inventory at the end of May. According to the CREA, the national average price for homes sold in May was $509,460. Excluding Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, the figure dropped to $375,532. UNITED STATES - In May, retail sales increased 0.5%, two ticks above the consensus forecast. Auto sales were up 0.5% after increasing 3.1% the previous month. Excluding autos, sales swelled 0.4%, in line with consensus expectations, after growing an unrevised 0.8% the prior month. Ex-auto sales were driven primarily by gasoline stations, non-store retailers and eating/drinking, while building materials, general merchandise and miscellaneous lagged. Q2 data shows that U.S. consumers remain an engine of growth after easing off the pedal somewhat in Q1. We were not overly concerned by the moderation in the first quarter given that energy savings and earlier labour market gains were bound to translate eventually into stronger spending. Though headline numbers are being buoyed by higher gasoline prices, growth is nevertheless broad-based,
The Week at a Glance
« NBF Economic
& Strategy Group
as only 3 of 10 categories retreated in May. Two months into Q2, discretionary spending (i.e., total spending less gasoline, health care and groceries) was growing at a very decent annualized rate of 4.4%. All in all, while other sectors in the economy can be cause for concern (i.e., exports and business investment), we believe GDP growth will continue to be well supported by consumers in the coming quarters. Also in May, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% m/m, one tick below the consensus forecast. Energy prices rose 1.2% while food prices dropped 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.2%, in line with consensus expectations. Commodities excluding food and energy were down 0.2% as lower prices for medical care commodities, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, and alcoholic beverages more than offset higher prices for apparel and tobacco. The indexes for owners’ equivalent rent, medical care and transportation increased again, lifting the ex-energy services CPI 0.3%. As a result of the monthly increases and the base effects, headline inflation notched down to 1.0% y/y while core inflation edged up to 2.2% y/y. Core inflation was held up above the 2.0% mark primarily by ex-energy service inflation, which was running at a more vigorous 3.2% year over year. Indeed, core inflation is being overblown essentially by sharp increases in rent (+3.8%) and owner’s equivalent rent (+3.3%) over the past 12 months. These two components account for no less than 40% of the core CPI’s advance. Again in May, import prices rose 1.4% m/m after increasing 0.7% in April. Excluding petroleum, prices were up 0.4% from a month earlier. On a year-over-year basis, non-petroleum import prices were down 1.9% while the headline index showed import prices declined 5.0%. Export prices rose 1.1% m/m but were 4.5% lower than the year before.
Always in May, industrial production shrank 0.4% after growing 0.6% (revised down one tick) in April. On a year-over-year basis, production contracted 1.4%. Utilities production fell 1.0% after jumping 6.1% the previous month. Driven by coal, mining production increased 0.2%, a first gain in eight months. Oil and gas extraction was flat. Manufacturing production sagged 0.4%, pulled lower by a 4.2% decline in motor vehicles and parts. Excluding this last category, manufacturing production was still down 0.1% m/m. In June, 28% of respondents to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that conditions had improved from the previous month, while 22% felt they had worsened. As a result, the diffusion index climbed 15 points to 6.0. After sinking into negative territory in May, the index now reflects a modest expansion in business activity. The new-orders sub-index sprang to 10.90, up more than 16 points from -5.54 in May. The employment sub-index stood at 0, however, signaling no change in employment. Also in June, the Philadelphia Fed index of manufacturing activity bounced back into positive territory to a three-month high of 4.7 from -1.8 the previous month. However, shipments, new orders, and employment were all in contraction mode. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose marginally (up 0.2 points) to 93.8 in May. Difficulty finding qualified workers was the fourth most important problem reported by small business owners. Housing starts fell 0.3% to 1164K in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in May. The 1.2% decline for multiple starts more than offset the 0.3% advance for single family home starts. Separately, building permits rose 0.7% to 1138K in May with gains for multis (+5.9%) dwarfing the 2% drop for single family homes. Residential construction seems to have hit a plateau. Building permits suggest not much improvement for starts over the coming months. And that’s happening despite favourable conditions for construction, i.e. low interest rates and low rental vacancy rates. Perhaps part of the problem is tightening of mortgage standards ─ more than half of new mortgage originations in the last 11 quarters have gone to borrowers with the highest credit scores, i.e. 760 and above.
The Week at a Glance
« NBF Economic
& Strategy Group
As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left monetary policy unchanged at its June meeting. The fed funds rate remains between 0.25% (lower bound) and 0.50% (upper bound). The FOMC acknowledged that the labour market had softened but sounded positive about recent GDP. In the post rate-decision press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen underscored that, while many labour-related statistics, such as the JOLTS report, still pointed towards a strengthening of the job market, nonfarm payrolls had lost momentum in recent months. Consequently, the FOMC decided it needed more time to determine whether there was sufficient impetus in the U.S. economy to proceed with a gradual normalization of monetary policy. At the June meeting, 9 of the 17 FOMC participants were of the opinion that two rate hikes would be appropriate in 2016. However, whereas just one participant called for only one rate hike in 2016 at the meeting in March, the number jumped to six in June, reflecting a more dovish bias among participants. Yellen also acknowledged that the Brexit was discussed and was a factor that influenced the decision to leave rates unchanged in June. Our view is that the U.S. labour market will remain softer than the Fed expects in the coming months. This will force the FOMC to maintain its cautious stance for a longer period of time. We see only one rate hike occurring in 2016, and only late in the year at that. WORLD - In Japan, the central bank’s decision was to maintain its policy stance unchanged with Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate - minus 0.1% to the Policy-Rate Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the Bank.
CANADA WATCH
Canada: Ontario among the most exposed to Brexit Odds-makers may still see ‘Bremain’ as the most likely outcome in next week’s vote, but the risk of ‘Brexit’ is nonetheless more acute than many had previously thought possible. As such, it’s appropriate to consider relative exposures to the UK. Canada may not be at the top of the charts in terms of nations most exposed to the United Kingdom. As the Hot Charts show, we send only 3% of our exports to the UK (and barely 7% to the entire EU). Still, the UK is Canada’s third most important export market, and at $25 billion/year, the bilateral two-way merchandise trade relationship is nothing to sneeze at. True, a ‘Brexit’ could see other EU nations take in more imports from Canada, as some may wish to make an example out of Britain in order to deter others from following suit. Still, a prospective slowing in the already torpid pace of global growth following a ‘Brexit’ is hardly welcome news for a small open economy like Canada. Then there are the somewhat less direct, but perhaps no less important linkages in the financial services industry. Anything that threatens to destabilize a global financial centre (in this case, London) could have knock-on effects across the globe. Whether its exports or the relative importance of financial services, exposures vary notably across Canada’s provinces. Little wonder that Ontario’s Finance Minister has endorsed a strong, united EU.
The Week at a Glance
« NBF Economic
& Strategy Group
U.S. WATCH
U.S.: Fed downgrades again While the FOMC continues to peddle the idea that interest rates could rise any time now depending on data, its own forecasts suggest low odds of that happening soon. GDP growth forecasts for the US were trimmed yet again amidst disappointing economic data, meaning the expected output gap by the end of 2018 has now swollen to about half a percentage point at best and to 2.3% under the worst case scenario. True, projections for PCE inflation were raised a bit in line with higher energy prices. But the fact that forecasts for the jobless rate were left unchanged near current levels suggests either productivity growth (which has been missing in action for the last five years) will make a triumphant return or the labour market participation rate will bounce back. That’s another way of saying the Fed doesn’t see much wage inflation ahead. So, we remain comfortable with our view that there will be at most one interest rate hike this year. And don’t bet on too many hikes in subsequent years. The Fed again lowered what it considers the long-run levels for the fed funds rate. As the Hot Charts show, the 3.75% which the FOMC was calling its low estimate 4 ½ years ago is now the high estimate.
The Week at a Glance
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
U.S. and Canadian News
Monday June 13th, 2016 - Microsoft Pays $26 Billion for LinkedIn in Biggest
Deal Yet Microsoft Corp. is acquiring the professional social network LinkedIn Corp. for $26.2 billion, one of the largest technology-industry deals on record, as the maker of Windows software attempts to put itself at the center of people’s business lives.
- Apple WWDC ushers in new era for Siri, opening it to outside developers Apple Inc is opening its popular Siri digital assistant to outside developers, which means iPhone users could soon be able to hail rides with Uber, publish photos on Shutterfly or make a call on Skype with voice commands. Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne shuffles cabinet, adds 7 new ministers Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne introduced a new cabinet with seven new additions on Monday.
Tuesday June 14th, 2016 - Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast as U.S.
Consumers Spend The 0.5 percent increase in purchases followed a 1.3 percent jump the previous month that was the biggest gain in a year. The median forecast of economists projected a 0.3 percent advance. Excluding purchases of autos and gasoline, sales climbed 0.3 percent.
- Toys ‘R’ Us Refinancing Plan Eases Concerns About Default Toys “R” Us Inc. reported improving earnings and announced a plan to refinance its debt, easing concerns that the retail chain will default on its loans. About half the noteholders of debt due in 2017 and 2018 are involved in the agreement. The company intends to refinance 89 percent of the existing notes, replacing them with new debt that matures in five years. A third party also plans to buy as much as $50 million in new financing if the exchange offer goes through.
Wednesday June 15th, 2016 - Fed Skips June Increase as Six Officials See One
Hike in 2016 While the median forecast of 17 policy makers remained at two quarter-point hikes this year, the number of officials who see just one move rose to six from one in the previous forecasting round in March.
- Industrial output weakens in May, led by autos Industrial production fell 0.4% in May after a revised 0.6% rise in April. This is the seventh decline in industrial output in the past nine months. The decline in May was in line with forecasts of economists.
- U.S. producer prices climb 0.4% in May The producer price index climbed 0.4% last month. Economists had predicted a 0.3% increase. Yet if food, energy and the volatile retail trade margin categories are stripped out, so-called core producer prices actually fell 0.1%.
- Canadian manufacturing sales jump 1% after two months of declines The producer price index climbed 0.4% last month. Economists had predicted a 0.3% increase. Yet if food, energy and the volatile retail trade margin categories are stripped out, so-called core producer prices actually fell 0.1%.
Thursday June 16th, 2016 - Initial Jobless Claims Increased More Than Forecast
Last Week Initial applications for unemployment benefits climbed 13,000 to a one-month high of 277,000 in the week ended June 11. The median forecast of economists called for 270,000.
- Consumer Prices Excluding Food, Fuel Rise as U.S. Rents Up The so-called core measure of the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent last month, the same as in April. The broader measure of consumer prices also climbed 0.2 percent.
- Stephen Poloz sees signs of 'real progress' in Canada’s economy The recent bounce-back in the price of oil isn’t likely to stop investment from continuing to fall in Canada’s battered energy sector. On the positive side, the Bank of Canada now estimates that the economic fallout from the massive Fort McMurray fire could be slightly less severe than it initially thought.
Friday June 17th, 2016 - St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Claims the Dot Missing From
Fed Estimate When the Fed released its economic projections in Washington on Wednesday, one of the 17 officials sitting around the table didn’t put forth an estimate for a long-run interest rate projection, displayed in the Fed’s so called “dot plot.” In a statement on Friday, Bullard made it clear that it was his -- the St. Louis Fed is switching to a new forecasting style that doesn’t incorporate a long-run estimate.
- Housing starts dip 0.3% in May Starts fell 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.16 million. Economists had expected a pace of 1.145 million. Permits, which foreshadow future starts, rose 0.7% to a 1.14 million rate.
- 'A very significant crisis': Trudeau sounds the alarm on housing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ratcheted up the alarm this week over runaway housing prices that have emerged as the most important issue facing Canada’s economy.
- Canada's annual inflation cools in May on cheaper gas, deceleration in food prices The annual rate declined to 1.5 per cent from April's 1.7 per cent, falling a tad short of economists' expectations for 1.6 per cent. The annual core inflation rate was more robust, dipping to 2.1 per cent from 2.2 per cent. Excluding gasoline, whose prices were down 7.1 per cent from a year earlier, the consumer price index was up 1.9 per cent.
International News Monday June 13th, 2016 - Brexit Polls by ICM Show ‘Leave’ Widening Lead
Over ‘Remain’ A telephone poll of 1,000 people conducted June 10 to 13 found “Leave” at 50 percent and "Remain" at 45 percent, ICM said in a statement Monday. An online poll of 2,001 adults conducted over the same dates put “Leave” at 49 percent and “Remain” at 44 percent.
- OPEC Sees Global Oil Market Balancing Toward the End of 2016 The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries kept estimates for world supply and demand in 2016 unchanged in its monthly market report. Disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s output to 32.36 million barrels a day last month, a little below the 32.6 million average required to satisfy estimated demand in the second half.
- China’s Economy Steadies Even as Investment Growth Slows Bloomberg’s monthly tracker for gross domestic product growth showed a 6.9 percent gain for May, little changed from April and comfortably within the leadership’s annual target for 2016. The gauge, updated after monthly data Monday, had swung from around 6.3 percent in the first two months of the year to 7.1 percent in March, when a lending spree juiced growth.
- Lotte Scraps $4.5 Billion Hotel IPO as Probes Deepen Crisis Lotte Group shelved what may have been a $4.5 billion initial public offering, the world’s biggest so far this year, for its hotel unit after widening investigations pushed the South Korean conglomerate deeper into crisis.
Tuesday June 14th, 2016 - Brexit Camp Is Ahead in Fifth U.K. Opinion Poll in 24
Hours The campaign for Britain to leave the European Union led in a fifth opinion poll published over the past 24 hours. The pound fell to a two-month low.
- German Bunds Reach New Milestone as Yield Declines Below Zero The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bund, Europe’s benchmark security, fell below zero for the first time on record, as investors’ seemingly insatiable demand for haven assets created another bond-market milestone.
- U.K. Inflation Stays at 0.3% as Cheaper Clothes Offset Fuel The rate was lower than the 0.4 percent median estimate of economists. Core inflation remained at 1.2 percent.
- IEA Cuts Oil Surplus Estimate The global oil market will be almost balanced next year as demand continues to rise faster than production, while the current oversupply is much smaller than previously thought.
Wednesday June 15th, 2016 - Osborne Seeks ‘Remain’ Momentum With Post-Brexit
Budget Warning The campaign to keep the U.K. in the European Union is seeking to regain momentum with a warning from Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne that a vote to leave could create a fiscal crisis, requiring an emergency austerity budget.
- U.K. Jobless Rate Hits 11-Year Low as Pay Growth Picks Up The jobless rate declined to 5 percent in the three months through April, the lowest since 2005. Economists had expected the rate to stay at 5.1 percent. The number of people in work rose by 55,000 to a record 31.6 million.
- Transparency worries keep MSCI from adding China to emerging-markets index MSCI Inc., a widely followed global index provider, said it wasn’t ready to add China’s local-currency shares to its benchmark emerging markets index, a fresh setback for China’s efforts to join international markets.
- China Spends More on Infrastructure Than the U.S. and Europe Combined Despite a crying need for better infrastructure, investment in it has fallen in 10 major economies, including the U.S., since the financial crisis.
Thursday June 16th, 2016 - BOE Ups Ante on Brexit With Warning of Global
Economic Harm Bank of England policy makers intensified their warnings about the risks of leaving the European Union, saying the damage could extend to global markets and the world economy.
- BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged Even as Kuroda Warns on Yen The Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus ahead of the U.K. vote on Brexit next week that could roil global markets, and before a domestic election in which the political opposition has made the bank’s negative interest-rate policy an issue.
- U.K. Retail-Sales Surge Boosts Hopes for Second Quarter The volume of goods sold in stores and online increased 0.9 percent following an upwardly revised 1.9 percent gain in April. The median estimate was for a 0.2 percent gain. Sales excluding auto fuel jumped 1 percent.
Friday June 17th, 2016 - IMF’s Lagarde Says Being in EU Has Made U.K.
Economy Richer International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned the U.K. of the risks of leaving the European Union and said there was a clear economic argument for remaining part of the bloc.
- Tough talk from Japan; Aso vows to act to protect rising yen Japan’s finance minister toughened his currency rhetoric Friday, saying the government must prevent further progress in what he called a “one-sided, sharp and speculation-driven” appreciation of the yen.
TMAC Resources Inc. TMR Sector Perform Sector Perform C$13.50 C$8.65
Toro Oil & Gas Ltd. TOO Restricted Sector Perform C$0.00 C$0.30
Transcontinental Inc. TCL.A Outperform Outperform C$21.50 C$22.50
The Week at a Glance
STRATEGIC LIST - WEEKLY UPDATE
(June 13th - June 17th) No Changes this Week Comments Industrials (Market Weight) NBF: In a thematic note on the Engineering & Construction sector, NBF looks at companies who have exposure to the UK in its coverage and could be impacted by Brexit. WSP has 14% of its EBITDA coming from the geography, followed by IBI Group, Stantec and SNC in terms of importance that NBF believes is in line with revenue contribution on percentage. Note that most of the companies’ exposure is concentrated in the buildings/transportation sectors. The former is likely to be more susceptible to temporary gyrations due to the preponderance of private funding while transit-/water-type work is unlikely to be impacted in the short term as many programs are long term in nature. NBF maintained its Outperform rating on WSP with a target price of $47.00. Source: NBF Research, Credit Suisse Research, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters
NBF STRATEGIC LIST
Ticker ADDITION
DATE ADDITION
PRICE LAST PRICE
YIELD (%) BETA
Strategic List SPTSX NOTES**
Consumer Discretionary LAST_PRI_DVD_YLDEQY_BETA 5.8 6.7Gildan Activewear GIL 21-May-14 $ 29.09 37.01$ 1.08 0.87 2.9 Thomson Reuters Corp. TRI 27-Feb-14 $ 38.31 52.80$ 3.29 0.57 2.9 Consumer Staples 4.1 4.7Saputo Inc. SAP 10-Jun-16 $ 38.68 38.20$ 1.43 0.56 2.1 George Weston Ltd. WN 31-Jul-12 $ 59.25 110.96$ 1.57 0.34 2.1 Energy 19.2 19.2ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 17-Dec-14 $ 26.82 20.84$ 2.89 1.12 4.8 Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE 09-Mar-16 16.88$ 18.07$ 1.12 1.19 4.8 Enbridge Inc. ENB 21-Jan-15 $ 59.87 52.69$ 4.03 0.28 4.8 Pembina Pipeline Corp. PPL 16-Mar-16 $ 35.51 39.43$ 4.95 0.57 4.8 Financials 41.2 38.0Bank of Montreal BMO 04-Mar-15 76.27$ 81.50$ 4.22 0.71 5.2 Cdn. Apartment Properties REIT CAR.un 11-Feb-15 $ 26.97 31.17$ 3.94 -0.10 5.2 Element Financial Corp. EFN 03-Sep-14 $ 14.10 14.14$ 0.69 0.60 5.2 H&R REIT HR.un 20-Aug-14 $ 23.36 21.60$ 6.22 0.49 5.2 Manulife Financial Corp. MFC 26-Mar-14 $ 21.42 17.97$ 4.11 1.37 5.2 Royal Bank of Canada RY 19-Jun-13 $ 60.69 77.60$ 4.19 0.83 5.2 Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF 27-May-15 $ 40.10 43.21$ 3.74 0.67 5.2 Toronto Dominion Bank TD 31-Jul-12 $ 39.46 55.70$ 3.94 0.60 5.2 Health Care - 1.0Industrials 8.1 8.1TransForce Inc. TFI 11-Feb-15 $ 29.36 24.50$ 2.80 1.46 4.1 WSP Global Inc. WSP 10-Feb-16 $ 35.72 40.16$ 3.70 1.16 4.1 Information Technology 3.3 3.0CGI Group Inc. GIB.A 22-Aug-12 $ 25.83 58.26$ 0.00 0.46 1.7 DH Corp. DH 04-Feb-15 $ 38.64 32.01$ 3.98 0.75 1.7 Materials 11.1 11.1Agnico Eagle Resources Ltd. AEM 17-Dec-14 $ 27.00 64.69$ 0.63 0.88 5.6 Lundin Mining Corp. LUN 17-Dec-14 $ 5.35 4.35$ 0.00 2.82 5.6 Telecom Services 5.1 5.8BCE Inc. BCE 21-Oct-15 $ 58.22 59.06$ 4.61 0.09 2.6 TELUS Corp T 31-Jul-12 $ 31.31 41.38$ 4.43 0.53 2.6 Utilities 2.1 2.5Emera Inc. EMA 29-Apr-16 $ 45.47 47.14$ 4.02 0.04 1.1 Northland Power Inc. NPI 08-May-13 19.43$ 21.90$ 4.80 0.16 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Eikon (Priced April 6, 2016 after the market close)
WEIGHT* (%)
* Individual position weights reflect an adjustment for Health Care. The Health Care weighting has been reallocated to sectors rated "overweight" with any remaining weight reallocated proportionally to the remaining sectors. As such, the individual position weights will exceed the total sector weights and may not sum to 1**R = Restricted Stocks - Stocks placed under restriction while on The NBF Strategic List will remain on the list, but noted as Restricted in accordance with compliance requirements
NBF Strategic List
The Week at a Glance
Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus Unit
22-Jun 09:00 Monthly Home Price MM Apr 0.7 %22-Jun 09:00 Monthly Home Price YY Apr 6.1 %22-Jun 09:00 Monthly Home Price Index MM Apr 233.122-Jun 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 5.45 5.5 mln22-Jun 10:00 Exist. Home Sales % Chg May 1.7 1.5 %
23-Jun 08:30 National Activity Index May 0.123-Jun 09:45 Markit Mfg PMI Flash Jun 50.7 50.723-Jun 10:00 Leading Index Chg MM May 0.6 0.2 %23-Jun 10:00 New Home Sales-Units May 0.619 0.578 mln23-Jun 10:00 New Home Sales Chg MM May 16.6 -7.2 %23-Jun 11:00 KC Fed Manufacturing Jun -1123-Jun 11:00 KC Fed Composite Index Jun -5
24-Jun 07:30 Build Permits R Numb MM May 1.138 mln24-Jun 07:30 Build Permits R Chg MM May 0.7 %24-Jun 08:30 Durable Goods May 3.4 -1 %24-Jun 08:30 Durables Ex-Transport May 0.5 0 %24-Jun 08:30 Durables Ex-Defense MM May 3.8 %24-Jun 08:30 Nondefe Cap Ex-Air May -0.6 0.1 %24-Jun 10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final Jun 94.3 94
Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus Unit
20-Jun 08:30 Wholesale Trade MM Apr -1 0.9 %20-Jun 08:30 Retail Sales MM Apr -1 1.1 %20-Jun 08:30 Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Apr -0.3 0.8 %
U.S. Indicators
Canadian Indicators
The Week at a Glance WEEK AHEAD THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(June 20th – June 24th)
Source : Thomson Reuters
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR Monday June 20th, 2016 None Tuesday June 21st, 2016 None Wednesday June 22nd, 2016 None Thursday June 23rd, 2016
Friday June 10th, 2016 None Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research *Companies of the S&P/TSX index expected to report. Stocks from the Strategic List are in Bold.
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE Blackberry BB -0.07
The Week at a Glance
S&P500 INDEX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR Monday June 20th, 2016 None Tuesday June 21st, 2016
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE Adobe Systems Inc ADBE 0.68 CarMax Inc KMX 0.924 FedEx Corp FDX 3.288 Lennar Corp LEN 0.872 Wednesday June 22nd, 2016
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE BED BATH & BEYOND INC BBBY 0.864 Red Hat Inc RHT 0.50 Thursday June 23rd, 2016
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE Accenture PLC ACN 1.411 ConAgra Foods Inc CAG 0.523 Friday June 24th, 2016 None Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research * Companies of the S&P500 index expected to report. Stocks from the Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List are in Bold.
