Tunisian National Tunisian National Institute of Institute of MeteorologyMeteorology

ALADIN Forecasters ALADIN Forecasters MeetingMeeting

PlanPlanIntroductionIntroduction

ExperiencesExperiences - Missed situation by - Missed situation by Aladin modelAladin model

- Well-forcasted situation - Well-forcasted situation by Aladinby Aladin

ChallengesChallenges

ExpectationsExpectations

IntroductionIntroduction

- Properties of weather in - Properties of weather in TunisiaTunisia

- Availables models- Availables models

Properties of weather in Properties of weather in TunisiaTunisia

The classic disturbances are North-The classic disturbances are North-West ones : a core of lower geopotential West ones : a core of lower geopotential field is formed on Greenland, advance field is formed on Greenland, advance towards the British Isles and France. towards the British Isles and France. Arriving on the Mediterranean and Arriving on the Mediterranean and associated with the Gene’s Golf of or associated with the Gene’s Golf of or Lyon’s Gulf depression, the minimum Lyon’s Gulf depression, the minimum advances to Tunisia while absorbing advances to Tunisia while absorbing moisture from the sea. moisture from the sea.

Theses situations caused rains on Theses situations caused rains on

northern and central Tunisia locally. northern and central Tunisia locally.

Models availablesModels availables

ARPEGE modelARPEGE model There are three versions of ARPEGE There are three versions of ARPEGE

model which are availables on model which are availables on SYNERGIE station.SYNERGIE station.

The most usable one is the model The most usable one is the model which runs with a resolution of 50 which runs with a resolution of 50 kilometers.kilometers.

It offers many parameters than It offers many parameters than others models which are available on others models which are available on SYNERGIE station.SYNERGIE station.

ARPEGE’S TOOLS on ARPEGE’S TOOLS on SYNERGIE stationSYNERGIE station

ALADIN TUNISIAALADIN TUNISIA

This model has been declared This model has been declared operational since 2004.operational since 2004.

The model runs with a resolution of The model runs with a resolution of 12.5 kilometers.12.5 kilometers.

It offers many parameters than others It offers many parameters than others models which are available on models which are available on SYNERGIE station.SYNERGIE station.

The interface of ALADIN The interface of ALADIN modelmodel

ALADIN’S TOOLS on ALADIN’S TOOLS on SYNERGIE stationSYNERGIE station

ExperiencesExperiences

Missed situation by Aladin : The Missed situation by Aladin : The case of 19/05/2014 case of 19/05/2014

- 5 death in Kairouan

- 45 mm in 3 hours

- Wind gusts (104 km/h)

- Hail in Mahdia and MounastirSource of picture : http://tn.webradar.me/

ARPEGE model outputs provided for 15 h

Sattellite picture taken at 15h UT

Informations provided by Informations provided by ALADIN and ARPEGE Model ALADIN and ARPEGE Model

The cumulative rainfall provided by the two models

We can note that the two models were unable to predict the best localisation for the intensive rains

also, they were unables to predict the exact quantities for the rains

On southern Tunisia we had just stored 2 mm in Remeda, for the others places there are praticly no precipitations.

Well-forcasted situation Well-forcasted situation by Aladinby Aladin

19/09/201319/09/2013

- disruptions in traffic

- water infiltration in homes, commercial buildings and public facilities

- 91 mm was stored in sfax

Source : http://directinfo.webmanagercenter.com/

ARPEGE model outputs provided for 12 h

Sattellite picture taken at 16h UT

Informations provided by Informations provided by ALADIN and ARPEGE ModelALADIN and ARPEGE Model

The cumulative rainfall provided by the two models

We can note that Aladin model was better than ARPEGE in point of view localisation and quantification for the intensive rains

On northern Tunisia we had stored quantities of rain which were not forcasted by two models

Generally, in convective situations, ALADIN model is not so bad. But in situations of frontal thunderstorms, it can find big problems

CHALLENGESCHALLENGES

We are in the obligations to work with We are in the obligations to work with praticly 3 models :praticly 3 models :

- ARPEGE to make short-term - ARPEGE to make short-term forecasts.forecasts.

- ALADIN to neat and define our - ALADIN to neat and define our forcasts.forcasts.

- ECMWF to prepare medium-term - ECMWF to prepare medium-term forecasts.forecasts.

EXPECTATIONSEXPECTATIONS

- To get more outputs of model to To get more outputs of model to properly analyze weather situations.properly analyze weather situations.

- To have a meteorological radar that To have a meteorological radar that helps us certainly in the immediate helps us certainly in the immediate forecast.forecast.

- To have others models with differents To have others models with differents properties which will allow us to better properties which will allow us to better studying meteorological situations.studying meteorological situations.

Products of arome and aladin models for the situation of Products of arome and aladin models for the situation of 19/05/201419/05/2014

Products of arome and aladin models for the situation of 19/09/2013

Thank you for your Thank you for your attentionattention