Turbulence

Challenges and Potential Solutions

Turbulence Basics

• Drivers – Safety, Efficiency/Emissions, Capacity, & Customer Experience

• Primary users- Meteorologists, Dispatchers, Crews, & Controllers

• Solution Components– Forecast– Tactical/Now cast– Reporting

• Challenges – FAA, Industry, & Resources

Flight Attendant Issuesfrom an Industry Meeting

• Insufficient/ incomplete briefing from the flight crew on weather en route e.g. turbulence

• Inability to communicate effectively with flight deck about turbulence in the cabin

• Obligation to continue with service or compliance duties when the seatbelt sign is illuminated

• 300 lb. beverage cart that is a potential hazard• Passengers disregard instructions and move about

the cabin

3

Variables & Resources

• Forecast– Model Selection– Subjectivity / Risk Considerations

• Dispatcher / Pilots– Tool selection– Subjectivity / Risk Considerations– Workload drivers– Pilots’ Chat Room

History

• Wright Brothers PIREPS• Chat Room• Gore Commission (1998) – Safety• NASA• FAA/NCAR• Too Much Conservatism is ultimately ignored –

Cry Wolf• Dispatch trial – Product vs. Workload

What we are doing?

• Replacing the Wright Brothers’ PIREPS• Using an objective sensor based turbulence

metric called EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) – Atmospheric State

• Using the numeric metric in a sophisticated forecast model (GTG) running on a super computer

• Providing access to a web site with the reports superimposed on the forecast

Why are we doing it?• Safety• IF EVERYONE IS STRAPPED IN WITH CARTS STOWED,

NO ONE GETS HURT.• KEY IS NOT TO CRY WOLF & F/A IGNORE WARNINGS

• Efficiency/Emissions• Capacity = Delays• Better customer experience• Overall - The solutions for all 4 drivers might appear

to conflict, but BETTER WEATHER KNOWLEDGE CAN DRIVE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR ALL 4.

Components of Viewer

• 3 Dimensional Forecast Model– Robust – Weighted average of other models– Updated hourly– Feedback loop

• Objective aircraft reports - Validate model– Sensor based reports– Normalized for all aircraft – Sea state

• Live web site using WiFi with user tools

FAA Delta Demo

• Tablet using WiFi for Turbulence Viewer• 40+ Line Check Airmen• One year duration• Goals– Change behavior with better information– Measure benefits– Define next steps

Turbulence Viewer

Profile View

Report Generator

Preliminary Results

• Very Positive - Want it now• What have you done for me today?– Auto generated flight Path– 3D Visualization

• Future Steps– Cabin vs. cockpit access to weather– Turbulence building block– Weather integration/simplification

Future Path• Industry Distractions– Airline daily priority – Mergers, Fuel, Economy– FAA – Research vs. Implementation

• Political Will– FAA – NextGen Weather– Airlines – Validate Benefits

• Alternatives for Data Location & Products– Airline, Government, Commercial or Mix– Costs burden – More data is key, but airline differences inhibit

• Decision Time – Demo could be the trigger