38
1 Turkey : Economic Outlook December 22, 2008
1
Turkey : Economic OutlookDecember 22, 2008
2
YoY GDP Growth Rate
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
3
”Effective Days Adjusted” GDP YoY Growth Rate
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
0.100
0.120
0.140
Effective Days Adjusted YoY Growth Rate GDP YoY Growth Rate
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
4
Industrial Production Index versus Total Industry in GDP
Source: YKB Research
5
Expenditures – Contributions to Growth
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3
Private Consumption Public Consumption Public Investment
Private Investment Change in Stocks Net Exports
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
6
Private Expenditures - YoY Growth Rates
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
Private Consumption Private Investment
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
7
Public Expenditures - YoY Growth Rates
-25.00%
-15.00%
-5.00%
5.00%
15.00%
25.00%
35.00%
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
Public Consumption Public Investments
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
8
Domestic & External Demand’s Contributions
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
External Demand Domestic Demand
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
9
Production- YoY Growth Rates
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3
Agriculture Industry Construction Services
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
10
Production- Sector Contributions
%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
11
Production- Service Sector’s Components’ YoY Growth Rates
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
2005
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
Construction Trade Transportation Financial Intermediation Services
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
12
Production- Service Sector’s Component’s Contributions
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3
Construction Trade Transportation Financial Intermediation Services Other Services
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
13
Industry/Agriculture Performance-Conditional 2008 GDP Growth Rate
Source: YKB Research
14
Medium Term GDP Growth*
For details please see Occasional Macro Note: “A Forecasting Exercise on Turkey’s Medium Term GDP Growth”- Nov 17, 2008.
15
Consumer Credit Volume (*)
(*)Weekly % change of 4W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
05-2007 07-2007 09-2007 11-2007 12-2007 02-2008 04-2008 06-2008 08-2008 10-2008 11-2008
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Housing (left Scale) Others (Left Scale) Car loans
16
Consumer Credit Volume (*)
(*)Weekly % change of 8W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
05-2007 07-2007 09-2007 11-2007 12-2007 02-2008 04-2008 06-2008 08-2008 10-2008 11-2008
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Housing (left Scale) Others (Left Scale) Car loans
17
Commercial &Consumer Credit Volume (*)
(*)Weekly % change of 6W moving average Source: Central Bank of Turkey, YKB Research
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
08-2006
10-2006
11-2006
01-2007
03-2007
04-2007
06-2007
08-2007
09-2007
11-2007
12-2007
02-2008
04-2008
05-2008
07-2008
09-2008
10-2008
Commercial Credits Consumer Credits
18
IP Annual Growth
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
Industrial Production (*)
(*) Y-on-Y growth
%
Source: Turkstat
19
Industrial Production
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
IPI _Sa
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
6MMA Y-on-Y
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
20
Industrial Production- Days Adjusted
Source: Turkstat, YKB Research
3.4%
-5.5%-4.0%
7.5%
11.4%
2.5%
6.3%
2.4%
0.8%
-7.5%
-2.0%
5.2%
6.8%4.6%
4.0%
7.9%
0.1%
0.8%
-10%
-7%
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
8%
11%
14%
IPI Eff. Days-Adjusted IPI
3.4%
5.7% 5.8%
8.5%
8.3%
3.9%4.4%
5.1%
6.9%
3.1%
-2.0%
5.7%5.8%7.6%
9.0%
5.4%
3.5%4.4%
8.3%
5.5%4.2%
-3.2%
-5%
-3%
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2009 Q1
IPI Eff. Days-Adjusted IPI
21
Current Account vs. Financing
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Current Account Deficit Financing
22
Exports vs. Imports
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Exports Imports
23
Year end Growth Expectations
5.1
4.75.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5
4.24.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.13.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Dec07 I
II Jan08 I
II Feb 08 I
II Mar08 I
II Apr08 I
II May08 I
II Jun08 I
II Jul08 I
II Aug08 I
II Sep08 I
II
24
Productivity vs. Investment
Productivity vs. Investment(annual % change)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
Investment (right scale)
Total
Industry
Services
(%) (%)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT. In productivity calculations, employment data from household laborforce statistics are used.
25
Agriculture
Agriculture (Growth vs. Employment, annual % change)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15GrowthEmploymentLinear (Growth)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT
(%)
26
Industry
Industry (Growth vs. Employment, annual % change)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20GrowthEmploymentLinear (Growth)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT
(%)
27
Services
Services (Growth vs. Employment, annual % change)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14GrowthEmploymentLinear (Growth)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT
(%)
28
Workforce
Workforce
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54ParticipationUnemploymentNon-agricultural
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: TURKSTAT
(%) (%)
29
Inflation Expectations
Source: CBRT
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0A
pr 0
6 I
Jun
06 II
Sep
06
I
Nov
06
II
Feb
07
I
Apr
07
II
Jul 0
7 I
Sep
07
II
Dec
07
I
Feb
08
II
May
08
I
Jul 0
8 II
Oct
08
I
Dec
08
II
Year-end CPI Expectation (right scale) 12M ahead CPI expectation
24M ahead CPI expectation
30
Special CPI (A)
Source: Turkstat
A ( CPI excluding seasonal products )
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
31
Special CPI (B)
Source: Turkstat
B(CPI excluding unprocessed food products)
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
14.5
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
32
Special CPI (C)
Source: Turkstat
C(CPI excluding energy)
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
33
Special CPI (D)
Source: Turkstat
D(CPI excluding energy and unprocessed food
products )
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
34
Special CPI (E)
Source: Turkstat
E(CPI excluding energy and liquor & tobacco)
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
35
Special CPI (F)
Source: Turkstat
F(CPI excluding energy, liquor & tobacco, administrated products, indirect taxes)
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
36
Special CPI (G)
Source: Turkstat
G(CPI F excluding unprocessed food products)
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
37
Special CPI (H)
Source: Turkstat
HCPI excluding energy, unprocessed food
products, liquor & tobacco, gold
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
38
SPECIAL CPI (I)
Source: Turkstat
ICPI excluding energy, food and beverages,
liquor & tobacco, gold
3
5
7
9
11
13
Jan-
04
May
-04
Sep-0
4
Jan-
05
May
-05
Sep-0
5
Jan-
06
May
-06
Sep-0
6
Jan-
07
May
-07
Sep-0
7
Jan-
08
May
-08
Sep-0
8
(%)
